Species distribution models for crop pollination: a modelling framework applied to Great Britain

Insect pollination benefits over three quarters of the world's major crops. There is growing concern that observed declines in pollinators may impact on production and revenues from animal pollinated crops. Knowing the distribution of pollinators is therefore crucial for estimating their availability to pollinate crops; however, in general, we have an incomplete knowledge of where these pollinators occur. We propose a method to predict geographical patterns of pollination service to crops, novel in two elements: the use of pollinator records rather than expert knowledge to predict pollinator occurrence, and the inclusion of the managed pollinator supply. We integrated a maximum entropy species distribution model (SDM) with an existing pollination service model (PSM) to derive the availability of pollinators for crop pollination. We used nation-wide records of wild and managed pollinators (honey bees) as well as agricultural data from Great Britain. We first calibrated the SDM on a representative sample of bee and hoverfly crop pollinator species, evaluating the effects of different settings on model performance and on its capacity to identify the most important predictors. The importance of the different predictors was better resolved by SDM derived from simpler functions, with consistent results for bees and hoverflies. We then used the species distributions from the calibrated model to predict pollination service of wild and managed pollinators, using field beans as a test case. The PSM allowed us to spatially characterize the contribution of wild and managed pollinators and also identify areas potentially vulnerable to low pollination service provision, which can help direct local scale interventions. This approach can be extended to investigate geographical mismatches between crop pollination demand and the availability of pollinators, resulting from environmental change or policy scenarios.

The timing of Neotropical speciation dynamics: A reconstruction of Myiopagis flycatcher diversification using phylogenetic and paleogeographic data

Neotropical forests have brought forth a large proportion of the world`s terrestrial biodiversity, but the underlying evolutionary mechanisms and their timing require further elucidation. Despite insights gained from phylogenetic studies, uncertainties about molecular clock rates have hindered efforts to determine the timing of diversification processes. Moreover, most molecular research has been detached from the extensive body of data on Neotropical geology and paleogeography. We here examine phylogenetic relationships and the timing of speciation events in a Neotropical flycatcher genus (Myiopagis) by using calibrations from modern geologic data in conjunction with a number of recently developed DNA sequence dating algorithms and by comparing these estimates with those based on a range of previously proposed molecular clock rates. We present a well-supported hypothesis of systematic relationships within the genus. Our age estimates of Myiopagis speciation events based on paleogeographic data are in close agreement with nodal ages derived from a ""traditional"" avian mitochondrial 2%/My clock, while contradicting other clock rates. Our comparative approach corroborates the consistency of the traditional avian mitochondrial clock rate of 2%/My for tyrant-flycatchers. Nevertheless, our results argue against the indiscriminate use of molecular clock rates in evolutionary research and advocate the verification of the appropriateness of the traditional clock rate by means of independent calibrations in individual studies. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Phylogeography of the Solanaceae-infecting Basidiomycota fungus Rhizoctonia solani AG-3 based on sequence analysis of two nuclear DNA loci

Background: the soil fungus Rhizoctonia solani anastomosis group 3 (AG-3) is an important pathogen of cultivated plants in the family Solanaceae. Isolates of R. solani AG-3 are taxonomically related based on the composition of cellular fatty acids, phylogenetic analysis of nuclear ribosomal DNA (rDNA) and beta-tubulin gene sequences, and somatic hyphal interactions. Despite the close genetic relationship among isolates of R. solani AG-3, field populations from potato and tobacco exhibit comparative differences in their disease biology, dispersal ecology, host specialization, genetic diversity and population structure. However, little information is available on how field populations of R. solani AG-3 on potato and tobacco are shaped by population genetic processes. In this study, two field populations of R. solani AG-3 from potato in North Carolina (NC) and the Northern USA; and two field populations from tobacco in NC and Southern Brazil were examined using sequence analysis of two cloned regions of nuclear DNA (pP42F and pP89).Results: Populations of R. solani AG-3 from potato were genetically diverse with a high frequency of heterozygosity, while limited or no genetic diversity was observed within the highly homozygous tobacco populations from NC and Brazil. Except for one isolate (TBR24), all NC and Brazilian isolates from tobacco shared the same alleles. No alleles were shared between potato and tobacco populations of R. solani AG-3, indicating no gene flow between them. To infer historical events that influenced current geographical patterns observed for populations of R. solani AG-3 from potato, we performed an analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) and a nested clade analysis (NCA). Population differentiation was detected for locus pP89 (Phi(ST) = 0.257, significant at P < 0.05) but not for locus pP42F (Phi(ST) = 0.034, not significant). Results based on NCA of the pP89 locus suggest that historical restricted gene flow is a plausible explanation for the geographical association of clades. Coalescent-based simulations of genealogical relationships between populations of R. solani AG-3 from potato and tobacco were used to estimate the amount and directionality of historical migration patterns in time, and the ages of mutations of populations. Low rates of historical movement of genes were observed between the potato and tobacco populations of R. solani AG-3.Conclusion: the two sisters populations of the basidiomycete fungus R. solani AG-3 from potato and tobacco represent two genetically distinct and historically divergent lineages that have probably evolved within the range of their particular related Solanaceae hosts as sympatric species.

Spatial clusters of suicide in the municipality of Sao Paulo 1996-2005: an ecological study

Background: In a classical study, Durkheim mapped suicide rates, wealth, and low family density and realized that they clustered in northern France. Assessing others variables, such as religious society, he constructed a framework for the analysis of the suicide, which still allows international comparisons using the same basic methodology. The present study aims to identify possible significantly clusters of suicide in the city of Sao Paulo, and then, verify their statistical associations with socio-economic and cultural characteristics. Methods: A spatial scan statistical test was performed to analyze the geographical pattern of suicide deaths of residents in the city of Sao Paulo by Administrative District, from 1996 to 2005. Relative risks and high and/or low clusters were calculated accounting for gender and age as co-variates, were analyzed using spatial scan statistics to identify geographical patterns. Logistic regression was used to estimate associations with socioeconomic variables, considering, the spatial cluster of high suicide rates as the response variable. Drawing from Durkheim's original work, current World Health Organization (WHO) reports and recent reviews, the following independent variables were considered: marital status, income, education, religion, and migration. Results: The mean suicide rate was 4.1/100,000 inhabitant-years. Against this baseline, two clusters were identified: the first, of increased risk (RR = 1.66), comprising 18 districts in the central region; the second, of decreased risk (RR = 0.78), including 14 districts in the southern region. The downtown area toward the southwestern region of the city displayed the highest risk for suicide, and though the overall risk may be considered low, the rate climbs up to an intermediate level in this region. One logistic regression analysis contrasted the risk cluster (18 districts) against the other remaining 78 districts, testing the effects of socioeconomic-cultural variables. The following categories of proportion of persons within the clusters were identified as risk factors: singles (OR = 2.36), migrants (OR = 1.50), Catholics (OR = 1.37) and higher income (OR = 1.06). In a second logistic model, likewise conceived, the following categories of proportion of persons were identified as protective factors: married (OR = 0.49) and Evangelical (OR = 0.60). Conclusions: This risk/ protection profile is in accordance with the interpretation that, as a social phenomenon, suicide is related to social isolation. Thus, the classical framework put forward by Durkheim seems to still hold, even though its categorical expression requires re-interpretation.

IMILAST: A community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset - the period 1989-2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of weak cyclones, and distribution in some densely populated regions. Consistency between methods is better for strong cyclones than for shallow ones. Two case studies of relatively large, intense cyclones reveal that the identification of the most intense part of the life cycle of these events is robust between methods, but considerable differences exist during the development and the dissolution phases.

Continental-Scale Footprint of Balancing and Positive Selection in a Small Rodent (Microtus arvalis)

Genetic adaptation to different environmental conditions is expected to lead to large differences between populations at selected loci, thus providing a signature of positive selection. Whereas balancing selection can maintain polymorphisms over long evolutionary periods and even geographic scale, thus leads to low levels of divergence between populations at selected loci. However, little is known about the relative importance of these two selective forces in shaping genomic diversity, partly due to difficulties in recognizing balancing selection in species showing low levels of differentiation. Here we address this problem by studying genomic diversity in the European common vole (Microtus arvalis) presenting high levels of differentiation between populations (average FST = 0.31). We studied 3,839 Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) markers genotyped in 444 individuals from 21 populations distributed across the European continent and hence over different environmental conditions. Our statistical approach to detect markers under selection is based on a Bayesian method specifically developed for AFLP markers, which treats AFLPs as a nearly codominant marker system, and therefore has increased power to detect selection. The high number of screened populations allowed us to detect the signature of balancing selection across a large geographic area. We detected 33 markers potentially under balancing selection, hence strong evidence of stabilizing selection in 21 populations across Europe. However, our analyses identified four-times more markers (138) being under positive selection, and geographical patterns suggest that some of these markers are probably associated with alpine regions, which seem to have environmental conditions that favour adaptation. We conclude that despite favourable conditions in this study for the detection of balancing selection, this evolutionary force seems to play a relatively minor role in shaping the genomic diversity of the common vole, which is more influenced by positive selection and neutral processes like drift and demographic history.

Lacunarity of the Spatial Distributions of Soil Types in Europe.

Lacunarity as a means of quantifying textural properties of spatial distributions suggests a classification into three main classes of the most abundant soils that cover 92% of Europe. Soils with a well-defined self-similar structure of the linear class are related to widespread spatial patterns that are nondominant but ubiquitous at continental scale. Fractal techniques have been increasingly and successfully applied to identify and describe spatial patterns in natural sciences. However, objects with the same fractal dimension can show very different optical properties because of their spatial arrangement. This work focuses primary attention on the geometrical structure of the geographical patterns of soils in Europe. We made use of the European Soil Database to estimate lacunarity indexes of the most abundant soils that cover 92% of the surface of Europe and investigated textural properties of their spatial distribution. We observed three main classes corresponding to three different patterns that displayed the graphs of lacunarity functions, that is, linear, convex, and mixed. They correspond respectively to homogeneous or self-similar, heterogeneous or clustered and those in which behavior can change at different ranges of scales. Finally, we discuss the pedological implications of that classification.

Spring Phenology of Butterflies : The role of seasonal variation in life-cycle regulation

Animals and plants in temperate regions must adapt their life cycle to pronounced seasonal variation. The research effort that has gone into studying these cyclical life history events, or phenological traits, has increased greatly in recent decades. As phenological traits are often correlated to temperature, they are relevant to study in terms of understanding the effect of short term environmental variation as well as long term climate change. Because of this, changes in phenology are the most obvious and among the most commonly reported responses to climate change. Moreover, phenological traits are important for fitness as they determine the biotic and abiotic environment an individual encounters. Fine-tuning of phenology allows for synchronisation at a local scale to mates, food resources and appropriate weather conditions. On a between-population scale, variation in phenology may reflect regional variation in climate. Such differences can not only give insights to life cycle adaptation, but also to how populations may respond to environmental change through time. This applies both on an ecological scale through phenotypic plasticity as well as an evolutionary scale through genetic adaptation. In this thesis I have used statistical and experimental methods to investigate both the larger geographical patterns as well as mechanisms of fine-tuning of phenology of several butterfly species. The main focus, however, is on the orange tip butterfly, Anthocharis cardamines, in Sweden and the United Kingdom. I show a contrasting effect of spring temperature and winter condition on spring phenology for three out of the five studied butterfly species. For A. cardamines there are population differences in traits responding to these environmental factors between and within Sweden and the UK that suggest adaptation to local environmental conditions. All populations show a strong negative plastic relationship between spring temperature and spring phenology, while the opposite is true for winter cold duration. Spring phenology is shifted earlier with increasing cold duration. The environmental variables show correlations, for example, during a warm year a short winter delays phenology while a warm spring speeds phenology up. Correlations between the environmental variables also occur through space, as the locations that have long winters also have cold springs. The combined effects of these two environmental variables cause a complex geographical pattern of phenology across the UK and Sweden. When predicting phenology with future climate change or interpreting larger geographical patterns one must therefore have a good enough understanding of how the phenology is controlled and take the relevant environmental factors in to account. In terms of the effect of phenological change, it should be discussed with regards to change in life cycle timing among interacting species. For example, the phenology of the host plants is important for A. cardamines fitness, and it is also the main determining factor for oviposition. In summary, this thesis shows that the broad geographical pattern of phenology of the butterflies is formed by counteracting environmental variables, but that there also are significant population differences that enable fine-tuning of phenology according to the seasonal progression and variation at the local scale.

Higher-order co-occurrences for exploratory point pattern analysis and decision tree clustering on spatial data

Analyzing geographical patterns by collocating events, objects or their attributes has a long history in surveillance and monitoring, and is particularly applied in environmental contexts, such as ecology or epidemiology. The identification of patterns or structures at some scales can be addressed using spatial statistics, particularly marked point processes methodologies. Classification and regression trees are also related to this goal of finding "patterns" by deducing the hierarchy of influence of variables on a dependent outcome. Such variable selection methods have been applied to spatial data, but, often without explicitly acknowledging the spatial dependence. Many methods routinely used in exploratory point pattern analysis are2nd-order statistics, used in a univariate context, though there is also a wide literature on modelling methods for multivariate point pattern processes. This paper proposes an exploratory approach for multivariate spatial data using higher-order statistics built from co-occurrences of events or marks given by the point processes. A spatial entropy measure, derived from these multinomial distributions of co-occurrences at a given order, constitutes the basis of the proposed exploratory methods. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Higher-order co-occurrences for exploratory point pattern analysis and decision tree clustering on spatial data

Analyzing geographical patterns by collocating events, objects or their attributes has a long history in surveillance and monitoring, and is particularly applied in environmental contexts, such as ecology or epidemiology. The identification of patterns or structures at some scales can be addressed using spatial statistics, particularly marked point processes methodologies. Classification and regression trees are also related to this goal of finding "patterns" by deducing the hierarchy of influence of variables on a dependent outcome. Such variable selection methods have been applied to spatial data, but, often without explicitly acknowledging the spatial dependence. Many methods routinely used in exploratory point pattern analysis are2nd-order statistics, used in a univariate context, though there is also a wide literature on modelling methods for multivariate point pattern processes. This paper proposes an exploratory approach for multivariate spatial data using higher-order statistics built from co-occurrences of events or marks given by the point processes. A spatial entropy measure, derived from these multinomial distributions of co-occurrences at a given order, constitutes the basis of the proposed exploratory methods. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Studia europejskie jako element internacjonalizacji szkolnictwa wyzszego w Unii Europejskiej

The aim of this article is to investigate how the European university education sector is being internationalized. The authors test „European Studies” programs, assuming that due to their peculiar character they are the forerunners of change, which results, among other things, from Europeanization processes. The field of „Teaching Europe” is mapped in the European Union and then a more detailed analysis is conducted in Poland and Germany. These allow the authors to formulate three models describing how universities in Europe are answering the challenges created by the integration process. The Polish and German cases further illustrate the dynamics of „European Studies” development, as well as differences in general aims, disciplinary construction as well as level of internationalization. Various geographical patterns of enhanced collaboration are revealed by the research when checking Double Degree programs.

Endemic zoonoses: a one health approach

Endemic zoonotic diseases remain a serious but poorly recognised problem in affected communities in developing countries. Despite the overall burden of zoonoses on human and animal health, information about their impacts in endemic settings is lacking and most of these diseases are continuously being neglected. The non-specific clinical presentation of these diseases has been identified as a major challenge in their identification (even with good laboratory diagnosis), and control. The signs and symptoms in animals and humans respectively, are easily confused with other non-zoonotic diseases, leading to widespread misdiagnosis in areas where diagnostic capacity is limited. The communities that are mostly affected by these diseases live in close proximity with their animals which they depend on for livelihood, which further complicates the understanding of the epidemiology of zoonoses. This thesis reviewed the pattern of reporting of zoonotic pathogens that cause febrile illness in malaria endemic countries, and evaluates the recognition of animal associations among other risk factors in the transmission and management of zoonoses. The findings of the review chapter were further investigated through a laboratory study of risk factors for bovine leptospirosis, and exposure patterns of livestock coxiellosis in the subsequent chapters. A review was undertaken on 840 articles that were part of a bigger review of zoonotic pathogens that cause human fever. The review process involves three main steps: filtering and reference classification, identification of abstracts that describe risk factors, and data extraction and summary analysis of data. Abstracts of the 840 references were transferred into a Microsoft excel spread sheet, where several subsets of abstracts were generated using excel filters and text searches to classify the content of each abstract. Data was then extracted and summarised to describe geographical patterns of the pathogens reported, and determine the frequency animal related risk factors were considered among studies that investigated risk factors for zoonotic pathogen transmission. Subsequently, a seroprevalence study of bovine leptospirosis in northern Tanzania was undertaken in the second chapter of this thesis. The study involved screening of serum samples, which were obtained from an abattoir survey and cross-sectional study (Bacterial Zoonoses Project), for antibodies against Leptospira serovar Hardjo. The data were analysed using generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs), to identify risk factors for cattle infection. The final chapter was the analysis of Q fever data, which were also obtained from the Bacterial Zoonoses Project, to determine exposure patterns across livestock species using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). Leptospira spp. (10.8%, 90/840) and Rickettsia spp. (10.7%, 86/840) were identified as the most frequently reported zoonotic pathogens that cause febrile illness, while Rabies virus (0.4%, 3/840) and Francisella spp. (0.1%, 1/840) were least reported, across malaria endemic countries. The majority of the pathogens were reported in Asia, and the frequency of reporting seems to be higher in areas where outbreaks are mostly reported. It was also observed that animal related risk factors are not often considered among other risk factors for zoonotic pathogens that cause human fever in malaria endemic countries. The seroprevalence study indicated that Leptospira serovar Hardjo is widespread in cattle population in northern Tanzania, and animal husbandry systems and age are the two most important risk factors that influence seroprevalence. Cattle in the pastoral systems and adult cattle were significantly more likely to be seropositive compared to non-pastoral and young animals respectively, while there was no significant effect of cattle breed or sex. Exposure patterns of Coxiella burnetii appear different for each livestock species. While most risk factors were identified for goats (such as animal husbandry systems, age and sex) and sheep (animal husbandry systems and sex), there were none for cattle. In addition, there was no evidence of a significant influence of mixed livestock-keeping on animal coxiellosis. Zoonotic agents that cause human fever are common in developing countries. The role of animals in the transmission of zoonotic pathogens that cause febrile illness is not fully recognised and appreciated. Since Leptospira spp. and C. burnetii are among the most frequently reported pathogens that cause human fever across malaria endemic countries, and are also prevalent in livestock population, control and preventive measures that recognise animals as source of infection would be very important especially in livestock-keeping communities where people live in close proximity with their animals.

Irrigation and drainage canals role for plant diversity and nature conservation

Aims: With this research, we wanted to investigate and promote the conservation of biodiversity in the network of drainage canals of the Po Valley Study area: The canal network of Bologna plain, long more than 1150 km (Po Valley, North Italy) Methods: In Chapter II we analyzed the geographical patterns that characterize our transects, the land use of their upstream basins, the water quality at the closure points of their river basins. In Chapter III we described the plant communities with some ecological information and we also tested the effect of the canal size on the plant communities. In Chapter IV we described the relation beetween some functional traits of the plant species sampled and some environmental parameters Results: A total of 272 species were sampled in 118 transects. The plant communities of the drainage canals have been found to have a significant influence: the geographical pattern "proximity to protected areas", the class of land use "agrozootechnical settlements", and some water parameters. The analysis of the parameter "canal depth" indicated a significant distinction between small and large canals based on plant communities. The functional composition of the plant communities was affected by the bank aspect, the inclusion/exclusion from the protected areas and the upstream basin land uses. Moreover, the functional groups of species responded differently to environmental drivers, water quality gradients and were influenced by a combination of environmental stresses Conclusions: This research confirms the key role of the canals network in sustaining the plant richness in oversimplified landscapes. Considering the fragility of the floodplains and the global warming that is taking place, it is necessary to rethink the role of irrigation canals and their plant communities in the near future. This work reinforces the belief that long-term sampling plans and greater knowledge about canal management practices are needed

Methylmercury and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Mediterranean seafood: a molecular anthropological perspective

Seafood carries several contaminants, among which mercury and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons are those that cause major concern. Evidence exists that human populations are exposed to these environmental chemicals since ancient times, which may have driven the positive selection of specific genetic polymorphisms related to chemicals toxicokinetic. Both mercury and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons are able to cause DNA methylation changes in humans. Some Mediterranean populations may be particularly exposed to these contaminants, being the Mediterranean Sea at a high-risk for contamination by toxic compounds, and because of their traditionally high consumption of locally caught seafood. Starting from these premises the present thesis aims to contribute to the understanding of the molecular impact of seafood consumption on the biology of the Mediterranean population. To this end the work has been divided into four main parts: (1) the development and meta-analysis of a georeferenced database on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Mediterranean seafood aimed at identifying geographical patterns of contamination and trends that could be related to the biology of the marine organisms, to the physico-chemical properties of each hydrocarbon and to the oceanographic characteristic of the Mediterranean; (2) the development and validation of a food frequency questionnaire to estimate the intake of mercury through seafood consumption among a population living in a geographic area that is usually considered a contamination hotspot; (3) the creation of a biobank made of biological samples from members of several Italian communities together with information on their dietary habits, lifestyle and general health; (4) a review of the literature on the genetic component of individual susceptibility to methylmercury and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons exposure in humans, to the effects that these pollutants have on human DNA methylation, and to the evidence that Mediterranean coastal communities represent an informative case study to investigate the potential molecular impact of these chemicals.

Effects of global climate changes on geographical distribution patterns of economically important plant species in cerrado

Different climate models, modeling methods and carbon emission scenarios were used in this paper to evaluate the effects of future climate changes on geographical distribution of species of economic and cultural importance across the Cerrado biome. As the results of several studies have shown, there are still many uncertainties associated with these projections, although bioclimatic models are still widely used and effective method to evaluate the consequences for biodiversity of these climate changes. In this article, it was found that 90% of these uncertainties are related to methods of modeling, although, regardless of the uncertainties, the results revealed that the studied species will reduce about 78% of their geographic distribution in Cerrado. For an effective work on the conservation of these species, many studies still need to be carried out, although it is already possible to observe that climate change will have a strong influence on the pattern of distribution of these species.