A new fuzzy additive model for determining the common set of weights in Data Envelopment Analysis

The main advantage of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is that it does not require any priori weights for inputs and outputs and allows individual DMUs to evaluate their efficiencies with the input and output weights that are only most favorable weights for calculating their efficiency. It can be argued that if DMUs are experiencing similar circumstances, then the pricing of inputs and outputs should apply uniformly across all DMUs. That is using of different weights for DMUs makes their efficiencies unable to be compared and not possible to rank them on the same basis. This is a significant drawback of DEA; however literature observed many solutions including the use of common set of weights (CSW). Besides, the conventional DEA methods require accurate measurement of both the inputs and outputs; however, crisp input and output data may not relevant be available in real world applications. This paper develops a new model for the calculation of CSW in fuzzy environments using fuzzy DEA. Further, a numerical example is used to show the validity and efficacy of the proposed model and to compare the results with previous models available in the literature.

Generalized Nets Model of an E-Learning System Software Architecture

The paper has been presented at the International Conference Pioneers of Bulgarian Mathematics, Dedicated to Nikola Obreshko ff and Lubomir Tschakaloff , Sofi a, July, 2006.

Application of the D-Fullness Technique for Breakdown Point Study of the Trimmed Likelihood Estimator to a Generalized Logistic Model

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62J12, 62F35

[N]pT ensemble and finite-size-scaling study of the critical isostructural transition in the generalized exponential model of index 4.

First-order transitions of system where both lattice site occupancy and lattice spacing fluctuate, such as cluster crystals, cannot be efficiently studied by traditional simulation methods, which necessarily fix one of these two degrees of freedom. The difficulty, however, can be surmounted by the generalized [N]pT ensemble [J. Chem. Phys. 136, 214106 (2012)]. Here we show that histogram reweighting and the [N]pT ensemble can be used to study an isostructural transition between cluster crystals of different occupancy in the generalized exponential model of index 4 (GEM-4). Extending this scheme to finite-size scaling studies also allows us to accurately determine the critical point parameters and to verify that it belongs to the Ising universality class.

Regional differences of outpatient physician supply as a theoretical economic and empirical generalized linear model

BACKGROUND: Regional differences in physician supply can be found in many health care systems, regardless of their organizational and financial structure. A theoretical model is developed for the physicians' decision on office allocation, covering demand-side factors and a consumption time function. METHODS: To test the propositions following the theoretical model, generalized linear models were estimated to explain differences in 412 German districts. Various factors found in the literature were included to control for physicians' regional preferences. RESULTS: Evidence in favor of the first three propositions of the theoretical model could be found. Specialists show a stronger association to higher populated districts than GPs. Although indicators for regional preferences are significantly correlated with physician density, their coefficients are not as high as population density. CONCLUSIONS: If regional disparities should be addressed by political actions, the focus should be to counteract those parameters representing physicians' preferences in over- and undersupplied regions.

Brood cell size of Apis mellifera modifies the reproductive behavior of Varroa destructor

We undertook a field study to determine whether comb cell size affects the reproductive behavior of Varroa destructor under natural conditions. We examined the effect of brood cell width on the reproductive behavior of V. destructor in honey bee colonies, under natural conditions. Drone and worker brood combs were sampled from 11 colonies of Apis mellifera. A Pearson correlation test and a Tukey test were used to determine whether mite reproduction rate varied with brood cell width. Generalized additive model analysis showed that infestation rate increased positively and linearly with the width of worker and drone cells. The reproduction rate for viable mother mites was 0.96 viable female descendants per original invading female. No significant correlation was observed between brood cell width and number of offspring of V. destructor. Infertile mother mites were more frequent in narrower brood cells.

The AIDS epidemic in the Amazon region: a spatial case-control study in Rondonia, Brazil

OBJECTIVE To analyze spatial changes in the risk of AIDS and the relationship between AIDS incidence and socioeconomic variables in the state of Rondonia, Amazon region. METHODS A spatial, population case-control study in Rondonia, Brazil, based on 1,780 cases reported to the Epidemiological Surveillance System and controls based on demographic data from 1987 to 2006. The cases were grouped into five consecutive four-year periods. A generalized additive model was adjusted to the data; the dependent variable was the status of the individuals (case or control), and the independent variables were a bi-dimensional spline of the geographic coordinates and some municipality-level socioeconomic variables. The observed values of the Moran’s I test were compared to a reference distribution of values generated under conditions of spatial randomness. RESULTS AIDS risk shows a marked spatial and temporal pattern. The disease incidence is related to socioeconomic variables at the municipal level in Rondônia, such as urbanization and human capital. The highest incidence rates of AIDS are in municipalities along the BR-364 highway and calculations of the Moran’s I test show positive spatial correlation associated with proximity of the municipality to the highway in the third and fourth periods (p = 0.05). CONCLUSIONS Incidence of the disease is higher in municipalities of greater economic wealth and urbanization, and in those municipalities bisected by Rondônia’s main roads. The rapid development associated with the opening up of once remote regions may be accompanied by an increase in these risks to health.

Relaciones ontogénicas y espacio-temporales en la dieta del calamar gigante (Dosidicus gigas) en Perú, utilizando un Modelo Aditivo Generalizado

El calamar gigante Dosidicus gigas (d'Orbigny, 1835) es un depredador importante en el ecosistema del Perú. Se postula que el papel del calamar gigante varía teniendo en cuenta la talla, tiempo, hora, temperatura y distribución espacial. Para comprobar esta hipótesis se aplicó un modelo aditivo generalizado (GAM) en datos biológicos de alimentación de 4178 calamares gigantes capturados por la flota industrial pesquera a lo largo del litoral peruano (3ºS a 18ºS) desde 2 a 299 millas náuticas (mn) de distancia a la costa desde el año 2004 a 2009 realizados por el Laboratorio de Ecología Trófica del Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE). La talla de los calamares estudiados fluctuó entre 14 y 112 cm de longitud de manto (LM). En total 43 item-presa fueron registrados, los grupos más importantes fueron los cefalópodos (Dosidicus gigas), Teleosteii (Photichthyidae, Myctophidae y Nomeidae) y Malacostraca crustáceos (Euphausiidae). Las presas principales fueron D. gigas (indicando canibalismo) en términos gravimétricos (% W=35.4), los otros cephalopodos en frecuencia de ocurrencia (FO=14.4), y los eufáusidos en términos de abundancia relativa (% N=62.2). Estos resultados reflejan una alta variabilidad de la dieta, y un espectro trófico similar en comparación con otras latitudes en ambos hemisferios (México y Chile). Los modelos GAM muestran que todas las variables predictoras fueron significativas en relación a la variable respuesta llenura estomacal (p <0.0001). La llenura estomacal fue mayor en los individuos juveniles, también durante la noche hubo mayor consumo, mientras no se reflejaron tendencias en la alimentación con relación a la temperatura superficial del mar (TSM), pero espacialmente se observan cambios en la dieta, aumentando el porcentaje de llenura a medida que esta especie se aleja de la costa. Por lo tanto se concluye que la dieta del calamar gigante depende de la talla y su distribución espacio-temporal.

Establishing International Blood Pressure References Among Nonoverweight Children and Adolescents Aged 6 to 17 Years.

BACKGROUND: Several distributions of country-specific blood pressure (BP) percentiles by sex, age, and height for children and adolescents have been established worldwide. However, there are no globally unified BP references for defining elevated BP in children and adolescents, which limits international comparisons of the prevalence of pediatric elevated BP. We aimed to establish international BP references for children and adolescents by using 7 nationally representative data sets (China, India, Iran, Korea, Poland, Tunisia, and the United States). METHODS AND RESULTS: Data on BP for 52 636 nonoverweight children and adolescents aged 6 to 19 years were obtained from 7 large nationally representative cross-sectional surveys in China, India, Iran, Korea, Poland, Tunisia, and the United States. BP values were obtained with certified mercury sphygmomanometers in all 7 countries by using standard procedures for BP measurement. Smoothed BP percentiles (50th, 90th, 95th, and 99th) by age and height were estimated by using the Generalized Additive Model for Location Scale and Shape model. BP values were similar between males and females until the age of 13 years and were higher in males than females thereafter. In comparison with the BP levels of the 90th and 95th percentiles of the US Fourth Report at median height, systolic BP of the corresponding percentiles of these international references was lower, whereas diastolic BP was similar. CONCLUSIONS: These international BP references will be a useful tool for international comparison of the prevalence of elevated BP in children and adolescents and may help to identify hypertensive youths in diverse populations.

A time series analysis of meteorological factors and hospital outpatient admissions for cardiovascular disease in the Northern district of Guizhou Province, China

Findings on the effects of weather on health, especially the effects of ambient temperature on overall morbidity, remain inconsistent. We conducted a time series study to examine the acute effects of meteorological factors (mainly air temperature) on daily hospital outpatient admissions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Zunyi City, China, from January 1, 2007 to November 30, 2009. We used the generalized additive model with penalized splines to analyze hospital outpatient admissions, climatic parameters, and covariate data. Results show that, in Zunyi, air temperature was associated with hospital outpatient admission for CVD. When air temperature was less than 10°C, hospital outpatient admissions for CVD increased 1.07-fold with each increase of 1°C, and when air temperature was more than 10°C, an increase in air temperature by 1°C was associated with a 0.99-fold decrease in hospital outpatient admissions for CVD over the previous year. Our analyses provided statistically significant evidence that in China meteorological factors have adverse effects on the health of the general population. Further research with consistent methodology is needed to clarify the magnitude of these effects and to show which populations and individuals are vulnerable.

Global patterns of plant root colonization intensity by mycorrhizal fungi explained by climate and soil chemistry

Aim Most vascular plants on Earth form mycorrhizae, a symbiotic relationship between plants and fungi. Despite the broad recognition of the importance of mycorrhizae for global carbon and nutrient cycling, we do not know how soil and climate variables relate to the intensity of colonization of plant roots by mycorrhizal fungi. Here we quantify the global patterns of these relationships. Location Global. Methods Data on plant root colonization intensities by the two dominant types of mycorrhizal fungi world-wide, arbuscular (4887 plant species in 233 sites) and ectomycorrhizal fungi (125 plant species in 92 sites), were compiled from published studies. Data for climatic and soil factors were extracted from global datasets. For a given mycorrhizal type, we calculated at each site the mean root colonization intensity by mycorrhizal fungi across all potentially mycorrhizal plant species found at the site, and subjected these data to generalized additive model regression analysis with environmental factors as predictor variables. Results We show for the first time that at the global scale the intensity of plant root colonization by arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi strongly relates to warm-season temperature, frost periods and soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, and is highest at sites featuring continental climates with mild summers and a high availability of soil nitrogen. In contrast, the intensity of ectomycorrhizal infection in plant roots is related to soil acidity, soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio and seasonality of precipitation, and is highest at sites with acidic soils and relatively constant precipitation levels. Main conclusions We provide the first quantitative global maps of intensity of mycorrhizal colonization based on environmental drivers, and suggest that environmental changes will affect distinct types of mycorrhizae differently. Future analyses of the potential effects of environmental change on global carbon and nutrient cycling via mycorrhizal pathways will need to take into account the relationships discovered in this study.

A regionally informed abundance index for supporting integrative analyses across butterfly monitoring schemes

1. The rapid expansion of systematic monitoring schemes necessitates robust methods to reliably assess species' status and trends. Insect monitoring poses a challenge where there are strong seasonal patterns, requiring repeated counts to reliably assess abundance. Butterfly monitoring schemes (BMSs) operate in an increasing number of countries with broadly the same methodology, yet they differ in their observation frequency and in the methods used to compute annual abundance indices. 2. Using simulated and observed data, we performed an extensive comparison of two approaches used to derive abundance indices from count data collected via BMS, under a range of sampling frequencies. Linear interpolation is most commonly used to estimate abundance indices from seasonal count series. A second method, hereafter the regional generalized additive model (GAM), fits a GAM to repeated counts within sites across a climatic region. For the two methods, we estimated bias in abundance indices and the statistical power for detecting trends, given different proportions of missing counts. We also compared the accuracy of trend estimates using systematically degraded observed counts of the Gatekeeper Pyronia tithonus (Linnaeus 1767). 3. The regional GAM method generally outperforms the linear interpolation method. When the proportion of missing counts increased beyond 50%, indices derived via the linear interpolation method showed substantially higher estimation error as well as clear biases, in comparison to the regional GAM method. The regional GAM method also showed higher power to detect trends when the proportion of missing counts was substantial. 4. Synthesis and applications. Monitoring offers invaluable data to support conservation policy and management, but requires robust analysis approaches and guidance for new and expanding schemes. Based on our findings, we recommend the regional generalized additive model approach when conducting integrative analyses across schemes, or when analysing scheme data with reduced sampling efforts. This method enables existing schemes to be expanded or new schemes to be developed with reduced within-year sampling frequency, as well as affording options to adapt protocols to more efficiently assess species status and trends across large geographical scales.

Semiparametric modeling of the spatial distribution of occupational accident risk in the casual labor market, Piracicaba, southeast Brazil

The objective of this study was to estimate the spatial distribution of work accident risk in the informal work market in the urban zone of an industrialized city in southeast Brazil and to examine concomitant effects of age, gender, and type of occupation after controlling for spatial risk variation. The basic methodology adopted was that of a population-based case-control study with particular interest focused on the spatial location of work. Cases were all casual workers in the city suffering work accidents during a one-year period; controls were selected from the source population of casual laborers by systematic random sampling of urban homes. The spatial distribution of work accidents was estimated via a semiparametric generalized additive model with a nonparametric bidimensional spline of the geographical coordinates of cases and controls as the nonlinear spatial component, and including age, gender, and occupation as linear predictive variables in the parametric component. We analyzed 1,918 cases and 2,245 controls between 1/11/2003 and 31/10/2004 in Piracicaba, Brazil. Areas of significantly high and low accident risk were identified in relation to mean risk in the study region (p < 0.01). Work accident risk for informal workers varied significantly in the study area. Significant age, gender, and occupational group effects on accident risk were identified after correcting for this spatial variation. A good understanding of high-risk groups and high-risk regions underpins the formulation of hypotheses concerning accident causality and the development of effective public accident prevention policies.