Adaptive, Decentralized, And Real-Time Sampling Strategies For Resource Constrained Hydraulic And Hydrologic Sensor Networks

We discuss the development and performance of a low-power sensor node (hardware, software and algorithms) that autonomously controls the sampling interval of a suite of sensors based on local state estimates and future predictions of water flow. The problem is motivated by the need to accurately reconstruct abrupt state changes in urban watersheds and stormwater systems. Presently, the detection of these events is limited by the temporal resolution of sensor data. It is often infeasible, however, to increase measurement frequency due to energy and sampling constraints. This is particularly true for real-time water quality measurements, where sampling frequency is limited by reagent availability, sensor power consumption, and, in the case of automated samplers, the number of available sample containers. These constraints pose a significant barrier to the ubiquitous and cost effective instrumentation of large hydraulic and hydrologic systems. Each of our sensor nodes is equipped with a low-power microcontroller and a wireless module to take advantage of urban cellular coverage. The node persistently updates a local, embedded model of flow conditions while IP-connectivity permits each node to continually query public weather servers for hourly precipitation forecasts. The sampling frequency is then adjusted to increase the likelihood of capturing abrupt changes in a sensor signal, such as the rise in the hydrograph – an event that is often difficult to capture through traditional sampling techniques. Our architecture forms an embedded processing chain, leveraging local computational resources to assess uncertainty by analyzing data as it is collected. A network is presently being deployed in an urban watershed in Michigan and initial results indicate that the system accurately reconstructs signals of interest while significantly reducing energy consumption and the use of sampling resources. We also expand our analysis by discussing the role of this approach for the efficient real-time measurement of stormwater systems.

Análise do mercado do abacaxi comercializado na CEAGESP - São Paulo

A disponibilidade de informações relativas à oferta, preços e sazonalidade do abacaxi é um fator de interesse tanto para produtores quanto para atacadistas, pois podem contribuir para melhor planejamento da época de colheita e comercialização. Dessa maneira, o presente trabalho buscou conhecer a sazonalidade do preço e da quantidade do abacaxi comercializado na CEAGESP - SP, no período de setembro de 2005 a março de 2006. Foram obtidos através de entrevistas aos atacadistas, dados referentes à origem de cada cultivar em estudo, o preço pago ao produtor, o preço de venda praticado pelos atacadistas e a quantidade de frutos recebida no dia. Com o objetivo de compreender o processo de comercialização das cultivares de abacaxi 'Smooth Cayenne' e 'Pérola', foram aplicados questionários aos vendedores de três empresas atacadistas. Através das informações obtidas, sugere-se aos produtores de abacaxi 'Smooth Cayenne' o escalonamento da produção no período de novembro a fevereiro, preferencialmente de maneira associativista. Os três atacadistas de abacaxi entrevistados vislumbram uma estabilidade na quantidade comercializada de abacaxi na CEAGESP, com previsão de crescimento para a cultivar 'Pérola' e redução para a cultivar 'Smooth Cayenne'. No período de 12 de setembro de 2005 a 20 de março de 2006, observou-se uma estabilidade de preços pagos ao produtor para ambas as cultivares, com elevação de preços entre os dias 23 de janeiro a 06 de março de 2006 para a cultivar 'Pérola' e entre os dias 06 de fevereiro a 06 de março de 2006 para a cultivar 'Smooth Cayenne'. Os atacadistas consideram a cultivar 'Smooth Cayenne' mais valorizada nos meses de novembro a janeiro e a cultivar 'Pérola' de março a junho e de novembro a dezembro. Pelo cenário de estabilização do mercado de abacaxi, torna-se fundamental a garantia de sabor monitorada pelas associações de produtores em parceria com o Centro de Qualidade em Horticultura (CQH - CEAGESP) e atacadistas, com destaque para a cultivar 'Smooth Cayenne'.

Invasion patterns of emerald ash borer and European earthworms in forested ecosystems

Invasive and exotic species present a serious threat to the health and sustainability of natural ecosystems. These species often benefit from anthropogenic activities that aid their introduction and dispersal. This dissertation focuses on invasion dynamics of the emerald ash borer, native to Asia, and European earthworms. These species have shown detrimental impacts in invaded forest ecosystems across the Great Lakes region, and continue to spread via human-assisted long distance dispersal and by natural modes of dispersal into interior forests from areas of introduction. Successful forest management requires that the impact and effect of invasive species be considered and incorporated into management plans. Understanding patterns and constraints of introduction, establishment, and spread will aid in this effort. To assist in efforts to locate introduction points of emerald ash borer, a multicriteria risk model was developed to predict the highest risk areas. Important parameters in the model were road proximity, land cover type, and campground proximity. The model correctly predicted 85% of known emerald ash borer invasion sites to be at high risk. The model’s predictions across northern Michigan can be used to focus and guide future monitoring efforts. Similar modeling efforts were applied to the prediction of European earthworm invasion in northern Michigan forests. Field sampling provided a means to improve upon modeling efforts for earthworms to create current and future predictions of earthworm invasion. Those sites with high soil pH and high basal area of earthworm preferred overstory species (such as basswood and maples) had the highest likelihood of European earthworm invasion. Expanding beyond Michigan into the Upper Great Lakes region, earthworm populations were sampled across six National Wildlife Refuges to identify potential correlates and deduce specific drivers and constraints of earthworm invasion. Earthworm communities across all refuges were influenced by patterns of anthropogenic activity both within refuges and in surrounding ecoregions of study. Forest composition, soil pH, soil organic matter, anthropogenic cover, and agriculture proximity also proved to be important drivers of earthworm abundance and community composition. While there are few management options to remove either emerald ash borer or European earthworms from forests after they have become well established, prevention and early detection are important and can be beneficial. An improved understanding the factors controlling the distribution and invasion patterns of exotic species across the landscape will aid efforts to determine their consequences and generate appropriate forest management solutions to sustain ecosystem health in the presence of these invaders.

A population dynamical model of Operophtera brumata, L. extended by climatic factors

Setting out from the database of Operophtera brumata, L. in between 1973 and 2000 due to the Light Trap Network in Hungary, we introduce a simple theta-logistic population dynamical model based on endogenous and exogenous factors, only. We create an indicator set from which we can choose some elements with which we can improve the fitting results the most effectively. Than we extend the basic simple model with additive climatic factors. The parameter optimization is based on the minimized root mean square error. The best model is chosen according to the Akaike Information Criterion. Finally we run the calibrated extended model with daily outputs of the regional climate model RegCM3.1, regarding 1961-1990 as reference period and 2021-2050 with 2071-2100 as future predictions. The results of the three time intervals are fitted with Beta distributions and compared statistically. The expected changes are discussed.

(Table 2) Mercury concentration in hair of Northwest Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Hair samples from 117 Northwest Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were taken during 1892-2008 and analyzed for total mercury (hereafter Hg). The sample represented 28 independent years and the aim of the study was to analyze for temporal Hg trends. Mercury concentrations showed yearly significant increases of 1.6-1.7% (p < 0.0001) from 1892 to 2008 and the two most recent median concentrations from 2006 and 2008 were 23- to 27-fold higher respectively than baseline level from 1300 A.D. in the same region (Nuullit). This indicates that the present (2006-2008) Northwest Greenland polar bear Hg exposure is 95.6-96.2% anthropogenic in its origin. Assuming a continued anthropogenic increase, this model estimated concentrations in 2050 and 2100 will be 40- and 92-fold the baseline concentration, respectively, which is equivalent to a 97.5 and 98.9% man-made contribution. None of the 2001-2008 concentrations of Hg in Northwest Greenland polar bear hair exceeded the general guideline values of 20-30 µg/g dry weight for terrestrial wildlife, whereas the neurochemical effect level of 5.4 µg Hg/g dry weight proposed for East Greenland polar bears was exceeded in 93.5% of the cases. These results call for detailed effect studies in main target organs such as brain, liver, kidney, and sexual organs in the Northwest Greenland polar bears.

Impact of ocean acidification in the metabolism and swimming behavior of the dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus) early larvae

Since the industrial revolution, [CO2]atm has increased from 280 µatm to levels now exceeding 380 µatm and is expected to rise to 730-1,020 µatm by the end of this century. The consequent changes in the ocean's chemistry (e.g., lower pH and availability of the carbonate ions) are expected to pose particular problems for marine organisms, especially in the more vulnerable early life stages. The aim of this study was to investigate how the future predictions of ocean acidification may compromise the metabolism and swimming capabilities of the recently hatched larvae of the tropical dolphinfish (Coryphaena hippurus). Here, we show that the future environmental hypercapnia (delta pH 0.5; 0.16 % CO2, ~1,600 µatm) significantly (p < 0.05) reduced oxygen consumption rate up to 17 %. Moreover, the swimming duration and orientation frequency also decreased with increasing pCO2 (50 and 62.5 %, respectively). We argue that these hypercapnia-driven metabolic and locomotory challenges may potentially influence recruitment, dispersal success, and the population dynamics of this circumtropical oceanic top predator.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and calcification during experiments with corals, 2003

Biogenic calcification is influenced by the concentration of available carbonate ions. The recent confirmation of this for hermatypic corals has raised concern over the future of coral reefs because [CO3] is a decreasing function of increasing pCO2 in the atmosphere. As one of the overriding features of coral reefs is their diversity, understanding the degree of variability between species in their ability to cope with a change in [CO3] is a priority. We cultured four phylogenetically and physiologically different species of hermatypic coral (Acropora verweyi, Galaxea fascicularis, Pavona cactus and Turbinaria reniformis) under 'normal' (280 µmol/kg) and 'low' (140 µmol/kg) carbonate-ion concentrations. The effect on skeletogenesis was investigated quantitatively (by calcification rate) and qualitatively (by microstructural appearance of growing crystalline fibres using scanning electron microscopy (SEM)). The 'low carbonate' treatment resulted in a significant suppression of calcification rate and a tendency for weaker crystallization at the distal tips of fibres. However, while the calcification rate was affected uniformly across species (13-18% reduction), the magnitude of the microstructural response was highly species specific: crystallization was most markedly affected in A. verweyi and least in T. reniformis. These results are discussed in relation to past records and future predictions of carbonate variability in the oceans.

Shift from coral to macroalgae dominance on a volcanically acidified reef

Rising anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere is accompanied by an increase in oceanic CO2 and a concomitant decline in seawater pH (ref. 1). This phenomenon, known as ocean acidification (OA), has been experimentally shown to impact the biology and ecology of numerous animals and plants2, most notably those that precipitate calcium carbonate skeletons, such as reef-building corals3. Volcanically acidified water at Maug, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) is equivalent to near-future predictions for what coral reef ecosystems will experience worldwide due to OA. We provide the first chemical and ecological assessment of this unique site and show that acidification-related stress significantly influences the abundance and diversity of coral reef taxa, leading to the often-predicted shift from a coral to an algae-dominated state4, 5. This study provides field evidence that acidification can lead to macroalgae dominance on reefs.

Foraging behaviour, swimming performance and malformations of early stages of commercially important fishes under ocean acidification and warming

Early life stages of many marine organisms are being challenged by climate change, but little is known about their capacity to tolerate future ocean conditions. Here we investigated a comprehensive set of biological responses of larvae of two commercially important teleost fishes, Sparus aurata (gilthead seabream) and Argyrosomus regius (meagre), after exposure to future predictions of ocean warming (+4 °C) and acidification (ΔpH= 0.5). The combined effect of warming and hypercapnia elicited a decrease in the hatching success (by 26.4 and 14.3 % for S. aurata and A. regius, respectively) and larval survival (by half) in both species. The length for newly-hatched larvae was not significantly affected, but a significant effect of hypercapnia was found on larval growth. However, while S. aurata growth was reduced (24.8–36.4 % lower), A. regius growth slightly increased (3.2–12.9 % higher) under such condition. Under acidification, larvae of both species spent less time swimming, and displayed reduced attack and capture rates of prey. The impact of warming on these behavioural traits was opposite but less evident. While not studied in A. regius, the incidence of body malformations in S. aurata larvae increased significantly (more than tripled) under warmer and hypercapnic conditions. These morphological impairments and behavioural changes are expected to affect larval performance and recruitment success, and further influence the abundance of fish stocks and the population structure of these commercially important fish species. However, given the pace of ocean climate change, it is important not to forget that species may have the opportunity to acclimate and adapt.

Sensitivity of building cooling loads to future weather predictions

The interaction and relationship between the global warming and the thermal performance buildings are dynamic in nature. In order to model and understand this behavior, different approaches, including keeping weather variable unchanged, morphing approach and diurnal modelling method, have been used to project and generate future weather data. Among these approaches, various assumptions on the change of solar radiation, air humidity and/or wind characteristics may be adopted. In this paper, an example to illustrate the generation of future weather data for the different global warming scenarios in Australia is presented. The sensitivity of building cooling loads to the possible changes of assumed values used in the future weather data generation is investigated. It is shown that with ± 10% change of the proposed future values for solar radiation, air humidity or wind characteristics, the corresponding change in the cooling load of the modeled sample office building at different Australian capital cities would not exceed 6%, 4% and 1.5% respectively. It is also found that with ±10% changes on the proposed weather variables for both the 2070-high future scenario and the current weather scenario, the corresponding change in the cooling loads at different locations may be weaker (up to 2% difference in Hobart for ±10% change in global solar radiation), similar (less than 0.6%) difference in Hobart for ±10% change in wind speed), or stronger (up to 1.6% difference in Hobart for ±10% change in relative humidity) in the 2070-high future scenario than in the current weather scenario.

The Influence of Friction Stir Welding Process Idealization on Residual Stress and Distortion Predictions for Future Airframe Assembly Simulations

The ability to accurately predict residual stresses and resultant distortions is a key product from process assembly simulations. Assembly processes necessarily consider large structural components potentially making simulations computationally expensive. The objective herein is to develop greater understanding of the influence of friction stir welding process idealization on the prediction of residual stress and distortion and thus determine the minimum required modeling fidelity for future airframe assembly simulations. The combined computational and experimental results highlight the importance of accurately representing the welding forging force and process speed. In addition, the results emphasize that increased CPU simulation times are associated with representing the tool torque, while there is potentially only local increase in prediction fidelity.

Observational constraints on past attributable warming and predictions of future global warming

This paper investigates the impact of aerosol forcing uncertainty on the robustness of estimates of the twentieth-century warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attribution analyses on three coupled climate models with very different sensitivities and aerosol forcing are carried out. The Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and GFDL R30 models all provide good simulations of twentieth-century global mean temperature changes when they include both anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such good agreement could result from a fortuitous cancellation of errors, for example, by balancing too much ( or too little) greenhouse warming by too much ( or too little) aerosol cooling. Despite a very large uncertainty for estimates of the possible range of sulfate aerosol forcing obtained from measurement campaigns, results show that the spatial and temporal nature of observed twentieth-century temperature change constrains the component of past warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gases to be significantly greater ( at the 5% level) than the observed warming over the twentieth century. The cooling effects of aerosols are detected in all three models. Both spatial and temporal aspects of observed temperature change are responsible for constraining the relative roles of greenhouse warming and sulfate cooling over the twentieth century. This is because there are distinctive temporal structures in differential warming rates between the hemispheres, between land and ocean, and between mid- and low latitudes. As a result, consistent estimates of warming attributable to greenhouse gas emissions are obtained from all three models, and predictions are relatively robust to the use of more or less sensitive models. The transient climate response following a 1% yr(-1) increase in CO2 is estimated to lie between 2.2 and 4 K century(-1) (5-95 percentiles).

Coming of age in L3 initial stages transfer models: deriving developmental predictions and looking towards the future

Aims: Over the past decade in particular, formal linguistic work within L3 acquisition has concentrated on hypothesizing and empirically determining the source of transfer from previous languages—L1, L2 or both—in L3 grammatical representations. In view of the progressive concern with more advanced stages, we aim to show that focusing on L3 initial stages should be one continued priority of the field, even—or especially—if the field is ready to shift towards modeling L3 development and ultimate attainment. Approach: We argue that L3 learnability is significantly impacted by initial stages transfer, as such forms the basis of the initial L3 interlanguage. To illustrate our point, the insights from studies using initial and intermediary stages L3 data are discussed in light of developmental predictions that derive from the initial stages models. Conclusions: Despite a shared desire to understand the process of L3 acquisition in whole, inclusive of offering developmental L3 theories, we argue that the field does not yet have—although is ever closer to—the data basis needed to effectively do so. Originality: This article seeks to convince the readership for the need of conservatism in L3 acquisition theory building, whereby offering a framework on how and why we can most effectively build on the accumulated knowledge of the L3 initial stages in order to make significant, steady progress. Significance: The arguments exposed here are meant to provide an epistemological base for a tenable framework of formal approaches to L3 interlanguage development and, eventually, ultimate attainment.

Research trends of post disaster reconstruction : the past and the future

Natural disasters can have adverse effect on human lives. To raise the awareness of research and better combat future events, it is important to identify recent research trends in the area of post disaster reconstruction (PDR). The authors used a three-round literature review strategy to study journal papers published in the last decade that are related to PDR with specific conditions using the Scopus search engine. A wide range of PDR related papers from a general perspective was examined in the first two rounds while the final round established 88 papers as target publications through visual examination of the abstracts, keywords and as necessary, main texts. These papers were analysed in terms of research origins, active researchers, research organisations, most cited papers, regional concerns, major themes and deliverables, for clues of the past trends and future directions. The need for appropriate PDR research is increasingly recognised. The publication number multiplied 5 times from 2002 to 2012. For PDR research with a construction perspective, the increase is sixfold. Developing countries such as those in Asia attract almost 50% researchers' attention for regional concerns while the US is the single most concentrated (24%) country. Africa is hardly represented. Researchers in developed countries lead in worldwide PDR research. This contrasts to the need for expertise in developing countries. Past works focused on waste management, stakeholder analysis, resourcing, infrastructure issue, resilience and vulnerability, reconstruction approach, sustainable reconstruction and governance issues. Future research should respond to resourcing, integrated development, sustainability and resilience building to cover the gaps. By means of a holistic summary and structured analysis of key patterns, the authors hope to provide a streamlined access to existing research findings and make predictions of future trends. They also hope to encourage a more holistic approach to PDR research and international collaborations.