Cities Futures: A critical assessment of how future studies are applied to cities

Análisis critic de la aplicación de los estudios de future al campo de la planificación urbana

The future of our cities.

Mode of access: Internet.

City dweller aspirations for cities of the future: How do environmental and personal wellbeing feature?

This paper explores city dweller aspirations for cities of the future in the context of global commitments to radically reduce carbon emissions by 2050; cities contribute the vast majority of these emissions and a growing bulk of theworld's population lives in cities. The particular challenge of creating a carbon reduced future in democratic countries is that the measures proposed must be acceptable to the electorate. Such acceptability is fostered if carbon reduced ways of living are also felt to bewellbeing maximising. Thus the objective of the paper is to explore what kinds of cities people aspire to live in, to ascertain whether these aspirations align with or undermine carbon reduced ways of living, as well as personal wellbeing. Using a novel free associative technique, city aspirations are found to cluster around seven themes, encompassing physical and social aspects. Physically, people aspire to a city with a range of services and facilities, green and blue spaces, efficient transport, beauty and good design. Socially, people aspire to a sense of community and a safe environment. An exploration of these themes reveals that only a minority of the participants' aspirations for cities relate to lowering carbon or environmental wellbeing. Far more consensual is emphasis on, and a particular vision of, aspirations that will bring personal wellbeing. Furthermore, city dweller aspirations align with evidence concerning factors that maximise personal wellbeing but, far less, with those that produce lowcarbonways of living. In order to shape a lower carbon future that city dwellers accept the potential convergence between environmental and personal wellbeing will need to be capitalised on: primarily aversion to pollution and enjoyment of communal green space.

Connected digital cities

In the future we will have a detailed ecological model of the whole planet with capabilities to explore and predict the consequences of alternative futures. However, such a planetary eco-model will take time to develop, time to populate with data, and time to validate - time the planet doesn't have. In the interim, we can model the major concentrations of energy use and pollution - our cities - and connect them to form a "talking cities network". Such a networked city model would be much quicker to build and validate. And the advantage of this approach is that it is safer and more effective for us to interfere with the operation of our cities than to tamper directly with the behaviour of natural systems. Essentially, it could be thought of as providing the planet with a nervous system and would empower us to better develop and manage sustainable cities.

Is there a future for non-motorized public transport in Asia?

Non-motorized public transport (NMPT), especially three-wheeler cycle rickshaws, has a long history in East Asia; and has long been a major transport planning issue. Policy measures to restrict or eliminate NMPT have already been implemented in many developing cities with mixed success. However given the economic, social and cultural significance of NMPT, its environmental benefits, and the magnitude of its role in sustaining the mobility needs of citizens, it is timely to reconsider the future role of NMPT. Rather than pursuing policies to eliminate NMPT, a better approach may be to integrate motorized and non-motorized vehicles as complementary rather than competitive forces. With this backdrop and given the international significance of the problem, this paper examines the current role and significance of NMPT using Dhaka as a case study, and sets a research agenda for the future of NMPT in a sustainable transport system.

Sustainable transport and the impact on the built environment : Future trends and directions

We love the automobile and the independence that it gives us. We are more mobile than we have ever been before in recorded history. In Australia 80% of journeys are by private motor vehicle. But it is becoming increasingly obvious that this era has a very limited lifespan. Fuel prices have skyrocketed recently with no end in sight. In spite of massive amounts of road construction, our cities are becoming increasingly congested. We desperately need to address climate change and the automobile is a major contributor. Carbon trading schemes will put even more upward pressure on fuel prices. At some point in the near future, most of us will need to reconsider our automobile usage whether we like it or not. The time to plan for the future is now. But what will happen to our mobility when access to cheap and available petroleum becomes a thing of the past? Will we start driving electric/hydrogen/ethanol vehicles? Or will we flock to public transport? Will our public transport systems cope with a massive increase in demand? Will thousands of people take to alternatives such as bicycles? If so, where do we put them? How do we change our roads to cope? How do we change our buildings to suit? Will we need recharging stations in our car park for example? Some countries are less reliant on the car than others e.g. Holland and Germany. How can the rest of the world learn from them? This paper discusses many of the likely outcomes of the inevitable shift away from society’s reliance on petroleum and examines the expected impact on the built environment. It also looks at ways in which the built environment can be planned to help ease the transition to a fossil free world. 1.

Managing ubiquitous eco cities : the role of urban telecommunication infrastructure networks and convergence technologies

A successful urban management system for a Ubiquitous Eco City requires an integrated approach. This integration includes bringing together economic, socio-cultural and urban development with a well orchestrated, transparent and open decision making mechanism and necessary infrastructure and technologies. Rapidly developing information and telecommunication technologies and their platforms in the late 20th Century improves urban management and enhances the quality of life and place. Telecommunication technologies provide an important base for monitoring and managing activities over wired, wireless or fibre-optic networks. Particularly technology convergence creates new ways in which the information and telecommunication technologies are used. The 21st Century is an era where information has converged, in which people are able to access a variety of services, including internet and location based services, through multi-functional devices such as mobile phones and provides opportunities in the management of Ubiquitous Eco Cities. This paper discusses the recent developments in telecommunication networks and trends in convergence technologies and their implications on the management of Ubiquitous Eco Cities and how this technological shift is likely to be beneficial in improving the quality of life and place. The paper also introduces recent approaches on urban management systems, such as intelligent urban management systems, that are suitable for Ubiquitous Eco Cities.

Intelligent urban management systems : online decision support systems for ubiquitous cities

A successful urban management support system requires an integrated approach. This integration includes bringing together economic, socio-cultural and urban development with a well orchestrated, transparent and open decision making mechanism. The chapter emphasizes the importance of integrated urban management to better tackle the climate change, and to achieve sustainable urban development and sound urban growth management. This chapter introduces recent approaches on urban management systems, such as intelligent urban management systems, that are suitable for ubiquitous cities. The chapter discusses the essential role of online collaborative decision making in urban and infrastructure planning, development and management, and advocates transparent, fully democratic and participatory mechanisms for an effective urban management system that is particularly suitable for ubiquitous cities. This chapter also sheds light on some of the unclear processes of urban management of ubiquitous cities and online collaborative decision making, and reveals the key benefits of integrated and participatory mechanisms in successfully constructing sustainable ubiquitous cities.

Non-motorised public transport : the past, the present, the future

Non-motorized public transport (NMPT) involves cycle-powered vehicles that carry several passengers and a small amount of goods; and provide flexible hail-and-ride services. Effectively they are non-motorized taxis. NMPT is widespread in developing countries, where it caters for a wide range of mobility needs. Common forms include cycle-rickshaw (Bangladesh, India), becak (Indonesia), cyclos (Vietnam, Cambodia), bicitaxi (Columbia, Cuba). Over the last 10-15 years there has also been a re-emergence of NMPT in the form of pedicabs in many developed countries because of the operating flexibility of NMPT, its eco-sustainability, and its ability to operate where use of motorized vehicles is restricted. In particular, in cities such as Berlin, London, New York and Vancouver, pedicabs are making the transition from ‘novelty’ to ‘serious’ transport mode. This is creating new transport policy/planning questions about pedicab operation and integration. This paper examines the phenomenon of NMPT and where it is heading. It uses case studies from Asia/Latin America and Europe/North America to examine emerging NMPT issues and possible responses, and how this may affect NMPT in Australia and New Zealand where it is still somewhat a ‘novelty’ but has potential as both an opportunity and a challenge.

Augmenting public urban spaces : the impact of the digital future on the design of public urban spaces

Social media digital and technologies surround us. We are moving into an age of ubiquitous (that is everywhere) computing. New media and information and communication technologies already impact on many aspects of everyday life including work, home and leisure. These new technologies are influencing the way that we develop social networks; understand places and location; how we navigate our cities; how we provide information about utilities and services; developing new ways to engage and participate in our communities, in planning, in governance and other decisions. This paper presents the initial findings of the impacts that digital communication technologies are having on public urban spaces. It develops a contextual review the nexus between urban planning and technological developments with examples and case studies from around the world to highlight some of the potential directions for urban planning in Queensland and Australia. It concludes with some thought provoking discussion points for urban planners, architects, designers and placemakers on the future of urban informatics and urban design, questions such as: how technology can enhance ‘place’, how technology can be used to improve public participation, and how technology will change our requirements of public places?

Knowledge-based development for cities and societies : integrated multi-level approaches

Over the past twenty years, the conventional knowledge management approach has evolved into a strategic management approach that has found applications and opportunities outside of business, in society at large, through education, urban development, governance, and healthcare, amongst others. Knowledge-Based Development for Cities and Socieities: Integrated Multi-Level Approaches enlightens the concepts and challenges of knowledge management for both urban environments and entire regions, enhancing the expertise and knowledge of scholars, resdearchers, practitioners, managers and urban developers in the development of successful knowledge-based development policies, creation of knowledte cities and prosperous knowledge societies. This reference creates large knowledge base for scholars, managers and urban developers and increases the awareness of the role of knowledge cities and knowledge socieiteis in the knowledge era, as well as of the challenges and opportunities for future research.

Consumers’ intentions to adopt 3G in regional cities in China : a comparative study

Rapid mobile technological evolution and the large economic stake in commercial development of mobile technological innovation make it necessary to understand consumers' motivations towards the latest advanced and updated technologies and services. 3G (the third generation of mobile communication technology) recently started its commercial development in the world‘s largest mobile communication market, China, after being delayed for a few years. Although China fell behind in commercially developing 3G, it is difficult to ignore studying this area, given the size of the market and promising future developments. This market deserves focused research attention, especially in terms of consumer behaviour towards the adoption of mobile technological innovation. Thus, the program of research in this thesis was designed to investigate how Chinese consumers respond to the use of this newly launched mobile technological innovation, with a focus on what factors affect their 3G adoption intentions. It aimed to yield important insights into Chinese consumers‘ innovation adoption behaviours and to contribute to marketing and innovation adoption research. Furthermore, it has been documented that Chinese consumers vary widely between regions in dialect, lifestyle, culture, purchasing power and consumption attitudes. Based on economic development and local culture, China can be divided geographically into distinctive regional consumer markets. Consequently, the results of consumer behaviour research in one region may not necessarily be extrapolated to other regions. In order to better understand Chinese consumers, the disparities between regions should not be overlooked. Therefore, another objective of this program of research was to examine regional variances in consumers' innovation adoption, specifically to identify the similarities and differences in factors influencing 3G adoption, contributing to intra-cultural studies. An extensive literature review identified two gaps: current China-based innovation adoption research studies are limited in providing adequate prediction and explanation of Chinese consumers' intentions to adopt 3G; and there was limited knowledge about the differences between regional Chinese consumers in innovation adoption. Two research questions therefore were developed to address these gaps: 1) What factors influence Chinese consumers' intentions to adopt 3G? 2) How do Chinese consumers differ between regional markets in the relative influence of the factors in determining their intentions to adopt 3G? In accordance with postpositivist research philosophy, two studies were designed to answer the research questions, using mixed methods. To meet the research objectives, the two studies were both conducted in three regional cities, namely Beijing, Shanghai and Wuhan, centred in the three regions of North China, East China and Central China respectively, with sufficient cultural and economical regional variances. Study One was an exploratory study with qualitative research methods. It involved 45 in-depth interviews in the three research cities to gain rich insights into the research context from natural settings. Eight important concepts related to 3G adoption were generated from analysis of the interview data, namely utilitarian expectation, hedonic expectation, status gains, status loss avoidance, normative influence, external influence, cost and quality concern. The concepts of social loss avoidance and quality concern were two unique findings, whereas the other concepts were similar to the findings in Western innovation adoption studies. Moreover, variances in 3G adoption between three groups of regional consumers were also identified, focusing on the perceptions of two concepts, namely status gains and normative influence. The conceptual research model was then developed incorporating the eight concepts plus the dependent variable of adoption intention. The hypothesized relationships between the nine constructs and hypotheses about the differences between regional consumers in 3G adoption were informed by the findings of Study One and the literature reviewed. Study Two was a quantitative study involving a web-based survey and statistical analysis procedure. The web-based survey attracted 800 residents from the three research cities, 270 from Beijing, 265 from Shanghai and 265 from Wuhan. They comprised three research samples for this study and consequently three sets of data were obtained. The data was analysed by Structural Equation Modelling together with Multi-group Analysis. The analysis confirmed that the concepts generated in Study One were influential factors affecting Chinese consumers' 3G adoption intention, with the exception of the concept external influence. Differences were found between the samples in the three research cities in the effect of hedonic expectation, status gains, status loss avoidance and normative influence on 3G adoption intention. The two Studies undertaken in this thesis contributed a better understanding of Chinese consumers' intentions to adopt advanced mobile technological innovation, namely 3G, in three regional markets. This knowledge contributes to innovation adoption and intra-cultural research, as well as consumer behaviour theory. It is also able to inform international and domestic telecommunication companies to develop and deliver more effective marketing strategies across Chinese regional markets. Limitations in the research were identified in terms of the sampling techniques used and the design of the two Studies. Future research was suggested in other Chinese regional markets and into consumer adoption of other types of mobile technological innovations.

Creative cities : the role of creative industries in regeneration

This paper attempts to make out a clear case for the role of creative industries in the future of our towns and cities; but it also argues that some difficult choices have to be made. Many have argued that the creative industries bring together culture and economics, but this is not the reduction of one to the other. In any respect both of these are abstractions from a complex social reality; we have to know what exactly we mean by culture and economics and how much value we place upon them. But this is also about long term and short term, about balancing one set of interests with others which may not be able to articulate themselves as strongly. It is about looking below the hype to the real processes involved

Sensitivity of building cooling loads to future weather predictions

The interaction and relationship between the global warming and the thermal performance buildings are dynamic in nature. In order to model and understand this behavior, different approaches, including keeping weather variable unchanged, morphing approach and diurnal modelling method, have been used to project and generate future weather data. Among these approaches, various assumptions on the change of solar radiation, air humidity and/or wind characteristics may be adopted. In this paper, an example to illustrate the generation of future weather data for the different global warming scenarios in Australia is presented. The sensitivity of building cooling loads to the possible changes of assumed values used in the future weather data generation is investigated. It is shown that with ± 10% change of the proposed future values for solar radiation, air humidity or wind characteristics, the corresponding change in the cooling load of the modeled sample office building at different Australian capital cities would not exceed 6%, 4% and 1.5% respectively. It is also found that with ±10% changes on the proposed weather variables for both the 2070-high future scenario and the current weather scenario, the corresponding change in the cooling loads at different locations may be weaker (up to 2% difference in Hobart for ±10% change in global solar radiation), similar (less than 0.6%) difference in Hobart for ±10% change in wind speed), or stronger (up to 1.6% difference in Hobart for ±10% change in relative humidity) in the 2070-high future scenario than in the current weather scenario.

Creative Industries and Urban Development : Creative Cities in the 21st Century

"The concept of creative industries has developed considerable academic and policy momentum in the 21st century. There has been a connection identified between the rise of creative industries and the urbanisation of the world’s population, particularly in relation to the significance of cities as sites of cultural production and consumption. Much of the work on creative industries and cities, however, has drawn upon 'imagined geographies' about the relationship between creativity and place. This collection draws together contributions that critically appraise recent urban cultural policy discourses, as well as reflecting on the role of culture and creative industries in the future development of cities."---publisher website