Real-time traffic state estimation in urban corridors from heterogeneous data

In recent years, rapid advances in information technology have led to various data collection systems which are enriching the sources of empirical data for use in transport systems. Currently, traffic data are collected through various sensors including loop detectors, probe vehicles, cell-phones, Bluetooth, video cameras, remote sensing and public transport smart cards. It has been argued that combining the complementary information from multiple sources will generally result in better accuracy, increased robustness and reduced ambiguity. Despite the fact that there have been substantial advances in data assimilation techniques to reconstruct and predict the traffic state from multiple data sources, such methods are generally data-driven and do not fully utilize the power of traffic models. Furthermore, the existing methods are still limited to freeway networks and are not yet applicable in the urban context due to the enhanced complexity of the flow behavior. The main traffic phenomena on urban links are generally caused by the boundary conditions at intersections, un-signalized or signalized, at which the switching of the traffic lights and the turning maneuvers of the road users lead to shock-wave phenomena that propagate upstream of the intersections. This paper develops a new model-based methodology to build up a real-time traffic prediction model for arterial corridors using data from multiple sources, particularly from loop detectors and partial observations from Bluetooth and GPS devices.

Comparative analysis of traffic state estimation ─ Cumulative counts-based and trajectory-based methods

The Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) relates space-mean density and flow. Since the MFD represents the area-wide network traffic performance, studies on perimeter control strategies and network-wide traffic state estimation utilising the MFD concept have been reported. Most previous works have utilised data from fixed sensors, such as inductive loops, to estimate the MFD, which can cause biased estimation in urban networks due to queue spillovers at intersections. To overcome the limitation, recent literature reports the use of trajectory data obtained from probe vehicles. However, these studies have been conducted using simulated datasets; limited works have discussed the limitations of real datasets and their impact on the variable estimation. This study compares two methods for estimating traffic state variables of signalised arterial sections: a method based on cumulative vehicle counts (CUPRITE), and one based on vehicles’ trajectory from taxi Global Positioning System (GPS) log. The comparisons reveal some characteristics of taxi trajectory data available in Brisbane, Australia. The current trajectory data have limitations in quantity (i.e., the penetration rate), due to which the traffic state variables tend to be underestimated. Nevertheless, the trajectory-based method successfully captures the features of traffic states, which suggests that the trajectories from taxis can be a good estimator for the network-wide traffic states.

Correction factors for dynamic state estimation of aggregated generators

This paper presents an approach for dynamic state estimation of aggregated generators by introducing a new correction factor for equivalent inter-area power flows. The spread of generators from the center of inertia of each area is summarized by the correction term α on the equivalent power flow between the areas and is applied to the identification and estimation process. A nonlinear time varying Kalman filter is applied to estimate the equivalent angles and velocities of coherent areas by reducing the effect of local modes on the estimated states. The approach is simulated on two test systems and the results show the effect of the correction factor and the performance of the state estimation by estimating the inter-area dynamics of the system.

Nonlinear Control Design for an Air-breathing Engine with State Estimation

A nonlinear control design approach is presented in this paper for a challenging application problem of ensuring robust performance of an air-breathing engine operating at supersonic speed. The primary objective of control design is to ensure that the engine produces the required thrust that tracks the commanded thrust as closely as possible by appropriate regulation of the fuel flow rate. However, since the engine operates in the supersonic range, an important secondary objective is to ensure an optimal location of the shock in the intake for maximum pressure recovery with a sufficient margin. This is manipulated by varying the throat area of the nozzle. The nonlinear dynamic inversion technique has been successfully used to achieve both of the above objectives. In this problem, since the process is faster than the actuators, independent control designs have also been carried out for the actuators as well to assure the satisfactory performance of the system. Moreover, an extended Kalman Filter based state estimation design has been carried out both to filter out the process and sensor noises as well as to make the control design operate based on output feedback. Promising simulation results indicate that the proposed control design approach is quite successful in obtaining robust performance of the air-breathing system.

Nonlinear Sliding Mode Control Design for an Air-breathing Engine with State Estimation

A modern system theory based nonlinear control design is discussed in this paper for successful operation of an air-breathing engine operating at supersonic speed. The primary objective of the control design of such an air-breathing engine is to ensure that the engine dynamically produces the thrust that tracks a commanded value of thrust as closely as possible by regulating the fuel flow to the combustion system. However, since the engine operates in the supersonic range, an important secondary objective is to manage the shock wave configuration in the intake section of the engine which is manipulated by varying the throat area of the nozzle. A nonlinear sliding mode control technique has been successfully used to achieve both of the above objectives. In this problem, since the process is faster than the actuators, independent control designs are also carried out for the actuators as well to assure the satisfactory performance of the system. Moreover, to filter out the sensor and process noises and to estimate the states for making the control design operate based on output feedback, an Extended Kalman Filter based state estimation design is also carried out. The promising simulation results suggest that the proposed control design approach is quite successful in obtaining robust performance of the air-breathing engine.

Reliability models for existing structures based on dynamic state estimation and data based asymptotic extreme value analysis

The problem of time variant reliability analysis of existing structures subjected to stationary random dynamic excitations is considered. The study assumes that samples of dynamic response of the structure, under the action of external excitations, have been measured at a set of sparse points on the structure. The utilization of these measurements m in updating reliability models, postulated prior to making any measurements, is considered. This is achieved by using dynamic state estimation methods which combine results from Markov process theory and Bayes' theorem. The uncertainties present in measurements as well as in the postulated model for the structural behaviour are accounted for. The samples of external excitations are taken to emanate from known stochastic models and allowance is made for ability (or lack of it) to measure the applied excitations. The future reliability of the structure is modeled using expected structural response conditioned on all the measurements made. This expected response is shown to have a time varying mean and a random component that can be treated as being weakly stationary. For linear systems, an approximate analytical solution for the problem of reliability model updating is obtained by combining theories of discrete Kalman filter and level crossing statistics. For the case of nonlinear systems, the problem is tackled by combining particle filtering strategies with data based extreme value analysis. In all these studies, the governing stochastic differential equations are discretized using the strong forms of Ito-Taylor's discretization schemes. The possibility of using conditional simulation strategies, when applied external actions are measured, is also considered. The proposed procedures are exemplifiedmby considering the reliability analysis of a few low-dimensional dynamical systems based on synthetically generated measurement data. The performance of the procedures developed is also assessed based on a limited amount of pertinent Monte Carlo simulations. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Robust Three Phase State Estimation for Distribution Networks

Electric power utilities are installing distribution automation systems (DAS) for better management and control of the distribution networks during the recent past. The success of DAS, largely depends on the availability of reliable database of the control centre and thus requires an efficient state estimation (SE) solution technique. This paper presents an efficient and robust three-phase SE algorithm for application to radial distribution networks. This method exploits the radial nature of the network and uses forward and backward propagation scheme to estimate the line flows, node voltage and loads at each node, based on the measured quantities. The SE cannot be executed without adequate number of measurements. The extension of the method to the network observability analysis and bad data detection is also discussed. The proposed method has been tested to analyze several practical distribution networks of various voltage levels and also having high R:X ratio of lines. The results for a typical network are presented for illustration purposes. © 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Robust Approach for Identification of Bad Data in State Estimation Using SLP Technique

This paper proposes a new approach for solving the state estimation problem. The approach is aimed at producing a robust estimator that rejects bad data, even if they are associated with leverage-point measurements. This is achieved by solving a sequence of Linear Programming (LP) problems. Optimization is carried via a new algorithm which is a combination of “upper bound optimization technique" and “an improved algorithm for discrete linear approximation". In this formulation of the LP problem, in addition to the constraints corresponding to the measurement set, constraints corresponding to bounds of state variables are also involved, which enables the LP problem more efficient in rejecting bad data, even if they are associated with leverage-point measurements. Results of the proposed estimator on IEEE 39-bus system and a 24-bus EHV equivalent system of the southern Indian grid are presented for illustrative purpose.

Nonlinear dynamic state estimation in instrumented structures with conditionally linear Gaussian substructures

Many problems of state estimation in structural dynamics permit a partitioning of system states into nonlinear and conditionally linear substructures. This enables a part of the problem to be solved exactly, using the Kalman filter, and the remainder using Monte Carlo simulations. The present study develops an algorithm that combines sequential importance sampling based particle filtering with Kalman filtering to a fairly general form of process equations and demonstrates the application of a substructuring scheme to problems of hidden state estimation in structures with local nonlinearities, response sensitivity model updating in nonlinear systems, and characterization of residual displacements in instrumented inelastic structures. The paper also theoretically demonstrates that the sampling variance associated with the substructuring scheme used does not exceed the sampling variance corresponding to the Monte Carlo filtering without substructuring. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linear programming approach for state estimation incorporating phasor measurements

This paper presents methodologies for incorporating phasor measurements into conventional state estimator. The angle measurements obtained from Phasor Measurement Units are handled as angle difference measurements rather than incorporating the angle measurements directly. Handling in such a manner overcomes the problems arising due to the choice of reference bus. Current measurements obtained from Phasor Measurement Units are treated as equivalent pseudo-voltage measurements at the neighboring buses. Two solution approaches namely normal equations approach and linear programming approach are presented to show how the Phasor Measurement Unit measurements can be handled. Comparative evaluation of both the approaches is also presented. Test results on IEEE 14 bus system are presented to validate both the approaches.

State estimation in power systems using linear model infinity norm-based trust region approach

State estimation is one of the most important functions in an energy control centre. An computationally efficient state estimator which is free from numerical instability/ill-conditioning is essential for security assessment of electric power grid. Whereas approaches to successfully overcome the numerical ill-conditioning issues have been proposed, an efficient algorithm for addressing the convergence issues in the presence of topological errors is yet to be evolved. Trust region (TR) methods have been successfully employed to overcome the divergence problem to certain extent. In this study, case studies are presented where the conventional algorithms including the existing TR methods would fail to converge. A linearised model-based TR method for successfully overcoming the convergence issues is proposed. On the computational front, unlike the existing TR methods for state estimation which employ quadratic models, the proposed linear model-based estimator is computationally efficient because the model minimiser can be computed in a single step. The model minimiser at each step is computed by minimising the linearised model in the presence of TR and measurement mismatch constraints. The infinity norm is used to define the geometry of the TR. Measurement mismatch constraints are employed to improve the accuracy. The proposed algorithm is compared with the quadratic model-based TR algorithm with case studies on the IEEE 30-bus system, 205-bus and 514-bus equivalent systems of part of Indian grid.

Dynamic state estimation for identifying earthquake support motions in instrumented structures

The problem of identification of multi-component and (or) spatially varying earthquake support motions based on measured responses in instrumented structures is considered. The governing equations of motion are cast in the state space form and a time domain solution to the input identification problem is developed based on the Kalman and particle filtering methods. The method allows for noise in measured responses, imperfections in mathematical model for the structure, and possible nonlinear behavior of the structure. The unknown support motions are treated as hypothetical additional system states and a prior model for these motions are taken to be given in terms of white noise processes. For linear systems, the solution is developed within the Kalman filtering framework while, for nonlinear systems, the Monte Carlo simulation based particle filtering tools are employed. In the latter case, the question of controlling sampling variance based on the idea of Rao-Blackwellization is also explored. Illustrative examples include identification of multi-component and spatially varying support motions in linear/nonlinear structures.

State estimation of spiralling target using UKF with generalized sinusoidal target acceleration model

Hit-to-kill interception of high velocity spiraling target requires accurate state estimation of relative kinematic parameters describing spiralling motion. In this pa- per, spiraling target motion is captured by representing target acceleration through sinusoidal function in inertial frame. A nine state unscented Kalman filter (UKF) formulation is presented here with three relative positions, three relative velocities, spiraling frequency of target, inverse of ballistic coefficient and maneuvering coef-ficient. A key advantage of the target model presented here is that it is of generic nature and can capture spiraling as well as pure ballistic motions without any change of tuning parameters. Extensive Six-DOF simulation experiments, which includes a modified PN guidance and dynamic inversion based autopilot, show that near Hit-to-Kill performance can be obtained with noisy RF seeker measurements of gimbal angles, gimbal angle rates, range and range rate.

Generalized State Estimation and Model Predictive Guidance for Spiraling and Ballistic Targets

An extended Kalman filter based generalized state estimation approach is presented in this paper for accurately estimating the states of incoming high-speed targets such as ballistic missiles. A key advantage of this nine-state problem formulation is that it is very much generic and can capture spiraling as well as pure ballistic motion of targets without any change of the target model and the tuning parameters. A new nonlinear model predictive zero-effort-miss based guidance algorithm is also presented in this paper, in which both the zero-effort-miss as well as the time-to-go are predicted more accurately by first propagating the nonlinear target model (with estimated states) and zero-effort interceptor model simultaneously. This information is then used for computing the necessary lateral acceleration. Extensive six-degrees-of-freedom simulation experiments, which include noisy seeker measurements, a nonlinear dynamic inversion based autopilot for the interceptor along with appropriate actuator and sensor models and magnitude and rate saturation limits for the fin deflections, show that near-zero miss distance (i.e., hit-to-kill level performance) can be obtained when these two new techniques are applied together. Comparison studies with an augmented proportional navigation based guidance shows that the proposed model predictive guidance leads to a substantial amount of conservation in the control energy as well.