Delineating environmental envelopes to improve mapping of species distributions, via a hurdle model with CART &/or MaxEnT

Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

Uterine cervix nitric oxide and human papillomavirus infection in women

Most women acquire genital high risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infection during their lifetime, but seldom the infection persists and leads to cervical cancer. However, currently it is not possible to identify the women who will develop HPV mediated cervical cancer and this often results to large scale follow-up and overtreatment of the likely spontaneously regressing infection. Thus, it is important to obtain more information on the course of HPV and find markers that could help to identify HPV infected women in risk for progression of cervical lesions and ultimately cancer. Nitric oxide is a free radical gas that takes part both in immune responses and carcinogenesis. Nitric oxide is produced also by cervical cells and therefore, it is possible that cervical nitric oxide could affect also HPV infection. In the present study, including 801 women from the University of Helsinki between years of 2006 and 2011, association between HPV and cervical nitric oxide was evaluated. The levels of nitric oxide were measured as its metabolites nitrate and nitirite (NOx) by spectrophotometry and the expression of nitric oxide producing enzymes endothelial and inducible synthases (eNOS, iNOS) by Western blotting. Women infected with HPV had two-times higher cervical fluid NOx levels compared with non-infected ones. The expression levels of both eNOS and iNOS were higher in HPV-infected women compared with non-infected. Another sexually transmitted disease Chlamydia trachomatis that is an independent risk factor for cervical cancer was also accompanied with elevated NOx levels, whereas vaginal infections, bacterial vaginosis and candida, did not have any effect on NOx levels. The meaning of the elevated HPV related cervical nitric oxide was evaluated in a 12 months follow-up study. It was revealed that high baseline cervical fluid NOx levels favored HPV persistence with OR 4.1. However, low sensitivity (33%) and high false negative rate (67%) restrict the clinical use of the current NOx test. This study indicated that nitric oxide favors HPV persistence and thus it seems to be one of the cofactor associated with a risk of carcinogenesis.

Comparison of two polyclonal antibodies for the detection of 19-nortestosterone in bovine bile by ELISA

19-Nortestosterone (beta-NT) is banned for use as a growth promoter in food animals within the European Union. For regulatory control purposes, urine and bile samples are routinely screened by immunoassay. The aim of the present study was to compare the ability of two immunoassays, using two rabbit polyclonal antibodies raised against two different NT derivatives, to detect NT residues in bovine bile. One antiserum cross-reacted with both alpha-NT and beta-NT (alpha/beta-NT), whereas the other was specific for alpha-NT. Bile samples from 266 slaughtered cattle were deconjugated and analyzed using both antibodies, with all screening positives (>2 ng ml(-1)) confirmed by high resolution gas chromatography mass spectrometry. The alpha/beta-NT and alpha-NT antibody-based ELISAs screened 39 and 44 samples positive, respectively, with NT confirmed in 22 and 39, respectively. The alpha/beta-NT antibody-based ELISA produced a false-negative rate of 44% compared to 0% for the alpha-NT antibody-based ELISA. Supplementary investigations concluded that a matrix effect was a major cause of the marked differences in false-negative rates. This result underlines the necessity to validate immunoassays in the sample matrix.

A novel single base deletion in the LDLR gene (211delG):Effect on serum lipid profiles and the influence of other genetic polymorphisms in the ACE, APOE and APOB genes

A single base deletion (211delG) in the low density lipoprotein receptor (LDLR) gene was shown to cause familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) in a large family from Northern Ireland. Twenty-four of 52 family members tested had this mutation, 13 of which were newly diagnosed. Mutation-positive individuals had significantly higher mean total-cholesterol (TC) and LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) than those without 211delG. LDL-C was a more accurate indicator of disease status than TC, When TC levels alone were considered, in individuals over 16 years, a false negative rate (TC <7.5 mmol/l) of 40% was found; however, this fell to 13% based on inclusion of LDL-C levels. Individuals with coronary artery disease (CAD) had significantly higher TC levels than those without CAD and tended to have tendinous xanthomas (TX) and corneal arcus (CA). Genetic polymorphisms in the angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) and apolipoprotein (ape) B genes did not appear to be associated with lipid levels or with the clinical severity of the disease; however, the apo E e4 allele did show a lipid-raising effect in individuals with the mutation.

Freehand core biopsy in breast cancer: an accurate predictor of tumour grade following neoadjuvant chemotherapy?

Core biopsy is an increasingly used technique in the pre-operative diagnosis of breast carcinoma, as it provides useful prognostic information with respect to tumour type and grade. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy is being used in the treatment of large and locally advanced breast cancers but little is known regarding the correlation between tumour histology on pre-treatment core biopsy and that in residual tumour following primary chemotherapy and surgery. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of core biopsy in predicting these features in patients treated with primary chemotherapy. One hundred and thirty-three patients with carcinoma of the breast diagnosed on clinical, radiological and cytological examination underwent core biopsy, followed by primary chemotherapy (with cyclophosphamide, vincristine, doxorubicin and prednisolone) and surgery. The false-negative rate for pre-treatment core biopsy was 14%, with 91% agreement between the grade demonstrated on core biopsy and that in the residual tumour following completion of chemotherapy. Tumour type in the residual post-chemotherapy tumour was predicted by core biopsy in 84%. This study suggests that pre-treatment core biopsy histology accurately predicts residual tumour histology following primary chemotherapy and surgery in patients with breast cancer. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detecting Packed Executables using Steganalysis

This paper proposes a novel method of detecting packed executable files using steganalysis, primarily targeting the detection of obfuscated malware through packing. Considering that over 80% of malware in the wild is packed, detection accuracy and low false negative rates are important properties of malware detection methods. Experimental results outlined in this paper reveal that the proposed approach achieving an overall detection accuracy of greater than 99%, a false negative rate of 1% and a false positive rate of 0%.

Prognostic value of sentinel node biopsy in 327 prospective melanoma patients from a single institution

AIM: To confirm the accuracy of sentinel node biopsy (SNB) procedure and its morbidity, and to investigate predictive factors for SN status and prognostic factors for disease-free survival (DFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between October 1997 and December 2004, 327 consecutive patients in one centre with clinically node-negative primary skin melanoma underwent an SNB by the triple technique, i.e. lymphoscintigraphy, blue-dye and gamma-probe. Multivariate logistic regression analyses as well as the Kaplan-Meier were performed. RESULTS: Twenty-three percent of the patients had at least one metastatic SN, which was significantly associated with Breslow thickness (p<0.001). The success rate of SNB was 99.1% and its morbidity was 7.6%. With a median follow-up of 33 months, the 5-year DFS/DSS were 43%/49% for patients with positive SN and 83.5%/87.4% for patients with negative SN, respectively. The false-negative rate of SNB was 8.6% and sensitivity 91.4%. On multivariate analysis, DFS was significantly worsened by Breslow thickness (RR=5.6, p<0.001), positive SN (RR=5.0, p<0.001) and male sex (RR=2.9, p=0.001). The presence of a metastatic SN (RR=8.4, p<0.001), male sex (RR=6.1, p<0.001), Breslow thickness (RR=3.2, p=0.013) and ulceration (RR=2.6, p=0.015) were significantly associated with a poorer DSS. CONCLUSION: SNB is a reliable procedure with high sensitivity (91.4%) and low morbidity. Breslow thickness was the only statistically significant parameter predictive of SN status. DFS was worsened in decreasing order by Breslow thickness, metastatic SN and male gender. Similarly DSS was significantly worsened by a metastatic SN, male gender, Breslow thickness and ulceration. These data reinforce the SN status as a powerful staging procedure

Carpal tunnel syndrome: diagnostic usefulness of sonography

PURPOSE: To prospectively evaluate accuracy of sonography for diagnosis of carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) in patients clinically suspected of having the disease in one or both hands.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: A prospective cohort of 133 patients suspected of having CTS were referred to a teaching hospital between October 2001 and June 2002 for electrodiagnostic study. One hundred twenty patients (98 women, 22 men; mean age, 49 years; range, 19–83 years) underwent sonography within 1 week after electrodiagnostic study. Radiologist was blinded to electrodiagnostic study results. Seventy-five patients had bilateral symptoms; 23 patients, right-hand symptoms; and 22 patients, left-hand symptoms (total, 195 symptomatic hands). Cross-sectional area of median nerve was measured at three levels: immediately proximal to carpal tunnel inlet, at carpal tunnel inlet, and at carpal tunnel outlet. Flexor retinaculum was used as a landmark to margins of carpal tunnel. Optimal threshold levels (determined with classification and regression tree analysis) for areas proximal to and at tunnel inlet and at tunnel outlet were used to discriminate between patients with and patients without disease. Sensitivity, specificity, and false-positive and false-negative rates were derived on the basis of final diagnosis, which was determined with clinical history and electrodiagnostic study results as reference standard.
RESULTS: For right hands, sonography had sensitivity of 94% (66 of 70); specificity, 65% (17 of 26); false-positive rate, 12% (nine of 75); and false-negative rate, 19% (four of 21) (cutoff, 0.09 cm2 proximal to tunnel inlet and 0.12 cm2 at tunnel outlet). For left hands, sensitivity was 83% (53 of 64); specificity, 73% (24 of 33); false-positive rate, 15% (nine of 62); and false-negative rate, 31% (11 of 35) (cutoff, 0.10 cm2 proximal to tunnel inlet).
CONCLUSION: Sonography is comparable to electrodiagnostic study in diagnosis of CTS and should be considered as initial test of choice for patients suspected of having CTS.

An abnormal-based approach to effectively detect DDOS attacks

Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attacks are a serious threat to the safety and security of cyberspace. In this paper we propose a novel metric to detect DDoS attacks in the Internet. More precisely, we use the function of order α of the generalized (Rényi) entropy to distinguish DDoS attacks traffic from legitimate network traffic effectively. In information theory, entropies make up the basis for distance and divergence measures among various probability densities. We design our abnormal-based detection metric using the generalized entropy. The experimental results show that our proposed approach can not only detect DDoS attacks early (it can detect attacks one hop earlier than using the Shannon metric while order  α =2, and two hops earlier than the Shannon metric while order α =10.) but can also reduce both the false positive rate and the false negative rate, compared with the traditional Shannon entropy metric approach.

Effective DDoS attacks detection using generalized entropy metric

In information theory, entropies make up of the basis for distance and divergence measures among various probability densities. In this paper we propose a novel metric to detect DDoS attacks in networks by using the function of order α of the generalized (Rényi) entropy to distinguish DDoS attacks traffic from legitimate network traffic effectively. Our proposed approach can not only detect DDoS attacks early (it can detect attacks one hop earlier than using the Shannon metric while order α=2, and two hops earlier to detect attacks while order α=10.) but also reduce both the false positive rate and the false negative rate clearly compared with the traditional Shannon entropy metric approach.

Browsing behavior mimicking attacks on popular web sites for large botnets

With the significant growth of botnets, application layer DDoS attacks are much easier to launch using large botnet, and false negative is always a problem for intrusion detection systems in real practice. In this paper, we propose a novel application layer DDoS attack tool, which mimics human browsing behavior following three statistical distributions, the Zipf-like distribution for web page popularity, the Pareto distribution for page request time interval for an individual browser, and the inverse Gaussian distribution for length of browsing path. A Markov model is established for individual bot to generate attack request traffic. Our experiments indicated that the attack traffic that generated by the proposed tool is pretty similar to the real traffic. As a result, the current statistics based detection algorithms will result high false negative rate in general. In order to counter this kind of attacks, we discussed a few preliminary solutions at the end of this paper.

Feature reduction to speed up malware classification

In statistical classification work, one method of speeding up the process is to use only a small percentage of the total parameter set available. In this paper, we apply this technique both to the classification of malware and the identification of malware from a set combined with cleanware. In order to demonstrate the usefulness of our method, we use the same sets of malware and cleanware as in an earlier paper. Using the statistical technique Information Gain (IG), we reduce the set of features used in the experiment from 7,605 to just over 1,000. The best accuracy obtained in the former paper using 7,605 features is 97.3% for malware versus cleanware detection and 97.4% for malware family classification; on the reduced feature set, we obtain a (best) accuracy of 94.6% on the malware versus cleanware test and 94.5% on the malware classification test. An interesting feature of the new tests presented here is the reduction in false negative rates by a factor of about 1/3 when compared with the results of the earlier paper. In addition, the speed with which our tests run is reduced by a factor of approximately 3/5 from the times posted for the original paper. The small loss in accuracy and improved false negative rate along with significant improvement in speed indicate that feature reduction should be further pursued as a tool to prevent algorithms from becoming intractable due to too much data.

Rapid detection of SMARCB1 sequence variation using high resolution melting

Background : Rhabdoid tumors are rare cancers of early childhood arising in the kidney, central nervous system and other organs. The majority are caused by somatic inactivating mutations or deletions affecting the tumor suppressor locus SMARCB1 [OMIM 601607]. Germ-line SMARCB1 inactivation has been reported in association with rhabdoid tumor, epitheloid sarcoma and familial schwannomatosis, underscoring the importance of accurate mutation screening to ascertain recurrence and transmission risks. We describe a rapid and sensitive diagnostic screening method, using high resolution melting (HRM), for detecting sequence variations in SMARCB1. Methods : Amplicons, encompassing the nine coding exons of SMARCB1, flanking splice site sequences and the 5' and 3' UTR, were screened by both HRM and direct DNA sequencing to establish the reliability of HRM as a primary mutation screening tool. Reaction conditions were optimized with commercially available HRM mixes. Results : The false negative rate for detecting sequence variants by HRM in our sample series was zero. Nine amplicons out of a total of 140 (6.4%) showed variant melt profiles that were subsequently shown to be false positive. Overall nine distinct pathogenic SMARCB1 mutations were identified in a total of 19 possible rhabdoid tumors. Two tumors had two distinct mutations and two harbored SMARCB1 deletion. Other mutations were nonsense or frame-shifts. The detection sensitivity of the HRM screening method was influenced by both sequence context and specific nucleotide change and varied from 1: 4 to 1:1000 (variant to wild-type DNA). A novel method involving digital HRM, followed by re-sequencing, was used to confirm mutations in tumor specimens containing associated normal tissue. Conclusions : This is the first report describing SMARCB1 mutation screening using HRM. HRM is a rapid, sensitive and inexpensive screening technology that is likely to be widely adopted in diagnostic laboratories to facilitate whole gene mutation screening.

Detecting contaminated birthdates using generalized additive models.

Erroneous patient birthdates are common in health databases. Detection of these errors usually involves manual verification, which can be resource intensive and impractical. By identifying a frequent manifestation of birthdate errors, this paper presents a principled and statistically driven procedure to identify erroneous patient birthdates.

A General Latent Class Model for Performance Evaluation of Diagnostic Tests in the Absence of a Gold Standard: An Application to Chagas Disease

We propose a new general Bayesian latent class model for evaluation of the performance of multiple diagnostic tests in situations in which no gold standard test exists based on a computationally intensive approach. The modeling represents an interesting and suitable alternative to models with complex structures that involve the general case of several conditionally independent diagnostic tests, covariates, and strata with different disease prevalences. The technique of stratifying the population according to different disease prevalence rates does not add further marked complexity to the modeling, but it makes the model more flexible and interpretable. To illustrate the general model proposed, we evaluate the performance of six diagnostic screening tests for Chagas disease considering some epidemiological variables. Serology at the time of donation (negative, positive, inconclusive) was considered as a factor of stratification in the model. The general model with stratification of the population performed better in comparison with its concurrents without stratification. The group formed by the testing laboratory Biomanguinhos FIOCRUZ-kit (c-ELISA and rec-ELISA) is the best option in the confirmation process by presenting false-negative rate of 0.0002% from the serial scheme. We are 100% sure that the donor is healthy when these two tests have negative results and he is chagasic when they have positive results.