Maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2007 and in 2015

The Gulf of Finland is said to be one of the densest operated sea areas in the world. It is a shallow and economically vulnerable sea area with dense passenger and cargo traffic of which petroleum transports have a share of over 50 %. The winter conditions add to the risks of maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland. It is widely believed that the growth of maritime transportation will continue also in the future. The Gulf of Finland is surrounded by three very different national economies with, different maritime transportation structures. Finland is a country of high GDP/per capita with a diversified economic structure. The number of ports is large and the maritime transportation consists of many types of cargoes: raw materials, industrial products, consumer goods, coal and petroleum products, and the Russian transit traffic of e.g. new cars and consumer goods. Russia is a large country with huge growth potential; in recent years, the expansion of petroleum exports has lead to a strong economic growth, which is also apparent in the growth of maritime transports. Russia has been expanding its port activities in the Gulf of Finland and it is officially aiming to transport its own imports and exports through the Russian ports in the future; now they are being transported to great extend through the Finnish, Estonian and other Baltic ports. Russia has five ports in the Gulf of Finland. Estonia has also experienced fast economic growth, but the growth has been slowing down already during the past couples of years. The size of its economy is small compared to Russia, which means the transported tonnes cannot be very massive. However, relatively large amounts of the Russian petroleum exports have been transported through the Estonian ports. The future of the Russian transit traffic in Estonia looks nevertheless uncertain and it remains to be seen how it will develop and if Estonia is able to find replacing cargoes if the Russian transit traffic will come to an end in the Estonian ports. Estonia’s own import and export consists of forestry products, metals or other raw materials and consumer goods. Estonia has many ports on the shores of the Gulf of Finland, but the port of Tallinn dominates the cargo volumes. In 2007, 263 M tonnes of cargoes were transported in the maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland, of which the share of petroleum products was 56 %. 23 % of the cargoes were loaded or unloaded in the Finnish ports, 60 % in the Russian ports and 17 % in the Estonian ports. The largest ports were Primorsk (74.2 M tonnes) St. Petersburg (59.5 M tonnes), Tallinn (35.9 M tonnes), Sköldvik (19.8 M tonnes), Vysotsk (16.5 M tonnes) and Helsinki (13.4 M) tonnes. Approximately 53 600 ship calls were made in the ports of the Gulf of Finland. The densest traffic was found in the ports of St. Petersburg (14 651 ship calls), Helsinki (11 727 ship calls) and Tallinn (10 614 ship calls) in 2007. The transportation scenarios are usually based on the assumption that the amount of transports follows the development of the economy, although also other factors influence the development of transportation, e.g. government policy, environmental aspects, and social and behavioural trends. The relationship between the development of transportation and the economy is usually analyzed in terms of the development of GDP and trade. When the GDP grows to a certain level, especially the international transports increase because countries of high GDP produce, consume and thus transport more. An effective transportation system is also a precondition for the economic development. In this study, the following factors were taken into consideration when formulating the future scenarios: maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland 2007, economic development, development of key industries, development of infrastructure and environmental aspects in relation to maritime transportation. The basic starting points for the three alternative scenarios were: • the slow growth scenario: economic recession • the average growth scenario: economy will recover quickly from current instability • the strong growth scenario: the most optimistic views on development will realize According to the slow growth scenario, the total tonnes for the maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland would be 322.4 M tonnes in 2015, which would mean a growth of 23 % compared to 2007. In the average growth scenario, the total tonnes were estimated to be 431.6 M tonnes – a growth of 64 %, and in the strong growth scenario 507.2 M tonnes – a growth of 93%. These tonnes were further divided into petroleum products and other cargoes by country, into export, import and domestic traffic by country, and between the ports. For petroleum products, the share of crude oil and oil products was estimated and the number of tanker calls in 2015 was calculated for each scenario. However, the future development of maritime transportation in the GoF is dependent on so many societal and economic variables that it is not realistic to predict one exact point estimate value for the cargo tonnes for a certain scenario. Plenty of uncertainty is related both to the degree in which the scenario will come true as well as to the cause-effect relations between the different variables. For these reasons, probability distributions for each scenario were formulated by an expert group. As a result, a range for the total tonnes of each scenario was formulated and they are as follows: the slow growth scenario: 280.8 – 363 M tonnes (expectation value 322.4 M tonnes)

Resolvendo a equação de Schrödinger utilizando procedimentos numéricos fundamentais

A combination of the variational principle, expectation value and Quantum Monte Carlo method is used to solve the Schrödinger equation for some simple systems. The results are accurate and the simplicity of this version of the Variational Quantum Monte Carlo method provides a powerful tool to teach alternative procedures and fundamental concepts in quantum chemistry courses. Some numerical procedures are described in order to control accuracy and computational efficiency. The method was applied to the ground state energies and a first attempt to obtain excited states is described.

Étude des transitions de phases dans le modèle de Higgs abélien en (2+1) dimensions et l'effet du terme de Chern-Simons

Nous avons investigué, via les simulations de Monte Carlo, les propriétés non-perturbatives du modèle de Higgs abélien en 2+1 dimensions sans et avec le terme de Chern-Simons dans la phase de symétrie brisée, en termes de ses excitations topologiques: vortex et anti-vortex. Le but du présent travail est de rechercher les phases possibles du système dans ce secteur et d'étudier l'effet du terme de Chern-Simons sur le potentiel de confinement induit par les charges externes trouvé par Samuel. Nous avons formulé une description sur réseau du modèle effectif en utilisant une tesselation tétraédrique de l'espace tridimensionnel Euclidien pour générer des boucles de vortex fermées. En présence du terme de Chern-Simons, dans une configuration donnée, nous avons formulé et calculé le nombre d'enlacement entre les différentes boucles de vortex fermées. Nous avons analysé les propriétés du vide et calculé les valeurs moyennes de la boucle de Wilson, de la boucle de Polyakov à différentes températures et de la boucle de 't Hooft en présence du terme de Chern-Simons. En absence du terme de Chern-Simons, en variant la masse des boucles de vortex, nous avons trouvé deux phases distinctes dans le secteur de la symétrie brisée, la phase de Higgs habituelle et une autre phase caractérisée par l'apparition de boucles infinies. D'autre part, nous avons trouvé que la force entre les charges externes est écrantée correpondant à la loi périmètre pour la boucle de Wilson impliquant qu'il n'y a pas de confinement. Cependant, après la transition, nous avons trouvé qu'il existe toujours une portion de charges externes écrantée, mais qu'après une charge critique, l'énergie libre diverge. En présence du terme de Chern-Simons, et dans la limite de constante de couplage faible de Chern-Simons nous avons trouvé que les comportements de la boucle de Wilson et de la boucle de 't Hooft ne changent pas correspondants à une loi périmètre, impliquant qu'il n'y a pas de confinement. De plus, le terme de Chern-Simons ne contribue pas à la boucle de Wilson.

Studies on gaussian effective potentials in some models

In classical field theory, the ordinary potential V is an energy density for that state in which the field assumes the value ¢. In quantum field theory, the effective potential is the expectation value of the energy density for which the expectation value of the field is ¢o. As a result, if V has several local minima, it is only the absolute minimum that corresponds to the true ground state of the theory. Perturbation theory remains to this day the main analytical tool in the study of Quantum Field Theory. However, since perturbation theory is unable to uncover the whole rich structure of Quantum Field Theory, it is desirable to have some method which, on one hand, must go beyond both perturbation theory and classical approximation in the points where these fail, and at that time, be sufficiently simple that analytical calculations could be performed in its framework During the last decade a nonperturbative variational method called Gaussian effective potential, has been discussed widely together with several applications. This concept was described as a means of formalizing our intuitive understanding of zero-point fluctuation effects in quantum mechanics in a way that carries over directly to field theory.

Squeezed Coherent State Representation of Scalar Field and Particle Production in the Early Universe

The present work is an attempt to explain particle production in the early univese. We argue that nonzero values of the stress-energy tensor evaluated in squeezed vacuum state can be due to particle production and this supports the concept of particle production from zero-point quantum fluctuations. In the present calculation we use the squeezed coherent state introduced by Fan and Xiao [7]. The vacuum expectation values of stressenergy tensor defined prior to any dynamics in the background gravitational field give all information about particle production. Squeezing of the vacuum is achieved by means of the background gravitational field, which plays the role of a parametric amplifier [8]. The present calculation shows that the vacuum expectation value of the energy density and pressure contain terms in addition to the classical zero-point energy terms. The calculation of the particle production probability shows that the probability increases as the squeezing parameter increases, reaches a maximum value, and then decreases.

Squeezed Coherent State Representation of Scalar Field and Particle Production in the Early Universe

The present work is an attempt to explain particle production in the early univese. We argue that nonzero values of the stress-energy tensor evaluated in squeezed vacuum state can be due to particle production and this supports the concept of particle production from zero-point quantum fluctuations. In the present calculation we use the squeezed coherent state introduced by Fan and Xiao [7]. The vacuum expectation values of stressenergy tensor defined prior to any dynamics in the background gravitational field give all information about particle production. Squeezing of the vacuum is achieved by means of the background gravitational field, which plays the role of a parametric amplifier [8]. The present calculation shows that the vacuum expectation value of the energy density and pressure contain terms in addition to the classical zero-point energy terms. The calculation of the particle production probability shows that the probability increases as the squeezing parameter increases, reaches a maximum value, and then decreases.

Descripció de propietats moleculars i activitats biològiques emprant l'energia de repulsió electró-electró

En aquest treball es descriu l'ús de les mesures de semblança molecular quàntica (MSMQ) per a caracteritzar propietats i activitats biològiques moleculars, i definir descriptors emprables per a construir models QSAR i QSPR. L'estudi que es presenta consisteix en la continuació d'un treball recent, on es descrivien relacions entre el paràmetre log P i MSMQ, donant així una alternativa a aquest parimetre hidrofòbic empíric. L'actual contribució presenta una nova mesura, capaç d'estendre l'ús de les MSMQ, que consisteix en l'energia de repulsió electró-electró (Vee). Aquest valor, disponible normalment a partir de programari de química quàntica, considera la molècula com una sola entitat, i no cal recórrer a l'ús de contribucions de fragments. La metodologia s'ha aplicat a cinc tipus diferents de compostos on diferents propietats moleculars i activitats biològiques s'han correlacionat amb Vee com a únic descriptor molecular. En tots els casos estudiats, s'han obtingut correlacions satisfactòries.

A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings

The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. In this paper we show for the first time how the Ruelle linear response theory, developed for studying rigorously the impact of perturbations on general observables of non-equilibrium statistical mechanical systems, can be applied with great success to analyze the climatic response to general forcings. The crucial value of the Ruelle theory lies in the fact that it allows to compute the response of the system in terms of expectation values of explicit and computable functions of the phase space averaged over the invariant measure of the unperturbed state. We choose as test bed a classical version of the Lorenz 96 model, which, in spite of its simplicity, has a well-recognized prototypical value as it is a spatially extended one-dimensional model and presents the basic ingredients, such as dissipation, advection and the presence of an external forcing, of the actual atmosphere. We recapitulate the main aspects of the general response theory and propose some new general results. We then analyze the frequency dependence of the response of both local and global observables to perturbations having localized as well as global spatial patterns. We derive analytically several properties of the corresponding susceptibilities, such as asymptotic behavior, validity of Kramers-Kronig relations, and sum rules, whose main ingredient is the causality principle. We show that all the coefficients of the leading asymptotic expansions as well as the integral constraints can be written as linear function of parameters that describe the unperturbed properties of the system, such as its average energy. Some newly obtained empirical closure equations for such parameters allow to define such properties as an explicit function of the unperturbed forcing parameter alone for a general class of chaotic Lorenz 96 models. We then verify the theoretical predictions from the outputs of the simulations up to a high degree of precision. The theory is used to explain differences in the response of local and global observables, to define the intensive properties of the system, which do not depend on the spatial resolution of the Lorenz 96 model, and to generalize the concept of climate sensitivity to all time scales. We also show how to reconstruct the linear Green function, which maps perturbations of general time patterns into changes in the expectation value of the considered observable for finite as well as infinite time. Finally, we propose a simple yet general methodology to study general Climate Change problems on virtually any time scale by resorting to only well selected simulations, and by taking full advantage of ensemble methods. The specific case of globally averaged surface temperature response to a general pattern of change of the CO2 concentration is discussed. We believe that the proposed approach may constitute a mathematically rigorous and practically very effective way to approach the problem of climate sensitivity, climate prediction, and climate change from a radically new perspective.

Stochastic perturbations to dynamical systems: a response theory approach

Using the formalism of the Ruelle response theory, we study how the invariant measure of an Axiom A dynamical system changes as a result of adding noise, and describe how the stochastic perturbation can be used to explore the properties of the underlying deterministic dynamics. We first find the expression for the change in the expectation value of a general observable when a white noise forcing is introduced in the system, both in the additive and in the multiplicative case. We also show that the difference between the expectation value of the power spectrum of an observable in the stochastically perturbed case and of the same observable in the unperturbed case is equal to the variance of the noise times the square of the modulus of the linear susceptibility describing the frequency-dependent response of the system to perturbations with the same spatial patterns as the considered stochastic forcing. This provides a conceptual bridge between the change in the fluctuation properties of the system due to the presence of noise and the response of the unperturbed system to deterministic forcings. Using Kramers-Kronig theory, it is then possible to derive the real and imaginary part of the susceptibility and thus deduce the Green function of the system for any desired observable. We then extend our results to rather general patterns of random forcing, from the case of several white noise forcings, to noise terms with memory, up to the case of a space-time random field. Explicit formulas are provided for each relevant case analysed. As a general result, we find, using an argument of positive-definiteness, that the power spectrum of the stochastically perturbed system is larger at all frequencies than the power spectrum of the unperturbed system. We provide an example of application of our results by considering the spatially extended chaotic Lorenz 96 model. These results clarify the property of stochastic stability of SRB measures in Axiom A flows, provide tools for analysing stochastic parameterisations and related closure ansatz to be implemented in modelling studies, and introduce new ways to study the response of a system to external perturbations. Taking into account the chaotic hypothesis, we expect that our results have practical relevance for a more general class of system than those belonging to Axiom A.

Estimating reliability and resolution of probability forecasts through decomposition of the empirical score

References (20)Cited By (1)Export CitationAboutAbstract Proper scoring rules provide a useful means to evaluate probabilistic forecasts. Independent from scoring rules, it has been argued that reliability and resolution are desirable forecast attributes. The mathematical expectation value of the score allows for a decomposition into reliability and resolution related terms, demonstrating a relationship between scoring rules and reliability/resolution. A similar decomposition holds for the empirical (i.e. sample average) score over an archive of forecast–observation pairs. This empirical decomposition though provides a too optimistic estimate of the potential score (i.e. the optimum score which could be obtained through recalibration), showing that a forecast assessment based solely on the empirical resolution and reliability terms will be misleading. The differences between the theoretical and empirical decomposition are investigated, and specific recommendations are given how to obtain better estimators of reliability and resolution in the case of the Brier and Ignorance scoring rule.

On the Casimir energy for a massive quantum scalar field and the cosmological constant

We present a rigorous, regularization-independent local quantum field theoretic treatment of the Casimir effect for a quantum scalar field of mass mu not equal 0 which yields closed form expressions for the energy density and pressure. As an application we show that there exist special states of the quantum field in which the expectation value of the renormalized energy-momentum tensor is, for any fixed time, independent of the space coordinate and of the perfect fluid form g(mu,nu)rho with rho > 0, thus providing a concrete quantum field theoretic model of the cosmological constant. This rho represents the energy density associated to a state consisting of the vacuum and a certain number of excitations of zero momentum, i.e., the constituents correspond to lowest energy and pressure p <= 0. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hamiltonian constraint analysis of vector field theories with spontaneous Lorentz symmetry breaking

Recent investigations of various quantum-gravity theories have revealed a variety of possible mechanisms that lead to Lorentz violation. One of the more elegant of these mechanisms is known as Spontaneous Lorentz Symmetry Breaking (SLSB), where a vector or tensor field acquires a nonzero vacuum expectation value. As a consequence of this symmetry breaking, massless Nambu-Goldstone modes appear with properties similar to the photon in Electromagnetism. This thesis considers the most general class of vector field theories that exhibit spontaneous Lorentz violation-known as bumblebee models-and examines their candidacy as potential alternative explanations of E&M, offering the possibility that Einstein-Maxwell theory could emerge as a result of SLSB rather than of local U(1) gauge invariance. With this aim we employ Dirac's Hamiltonian Constraint Analysis procedure to examine the constraint structures and degrees of freedom inherent in three candidate bumblebee models, each with a different potential function, and compare these results to those of Electromagnetism. We find that none of these models share similar constraint structures to that of E&M, and that the number of degrees of freedom for each model exceeds that of Electromagnetism by at least two, pointing to the potential existence of massive modes or propagating ghost modes in the bumblebee theories.

Tensor coupling and pseudospin symmetry in nuclei

In this work we study the contribution of the isoscalar tensor coupling to the realization of pseudospin symmetry in nuclei. Using realistic values for the tensor coupling strength, we show that this coupling reduces noticeably the pseudospin splittings, especially for single-particle levels near the Fermi surface. By using an energy. decomposition of the pseudospin energy splittings, we show that the changes in these splittings come mainly through the changes induced in the lower radial wave function for the low-lying pseudospin partners and through changes in the expectation value of the pseudospin-orbit coupling term for surface partners. This allows us to confirm the conclusion already reached in previous studies, namely that the pseudospin symmetry in nuclei is of a dynamical nature.

Closing the SU(3)(L)circle times U(1)(X) symmetry at the electroweak scale

We show that some models with SU(3)(C)circle times SU(3)(L)circle times U(1)(X) gauge symmetry can be realized at the electroweak scale and that this is a consequence of an approximate global SU(2)(L+R) symmetry. This symmetry implies a condition among the vacuum expectation value of one of the neutral Higgs scalars, the U(1)(X)'s coupling constant, g(X), the sine of the weak mixing angle sin theta(W), and the mass of the W boson, M-W. In the limit in which this symmetry is valid it avoids the tree level mixing of the Z boson of the standard model with the extra Z(') boson. We have verified that the oblique T parameter is within the allowed range indicating that the radiative corrections that induce such a mixing at the 1-loop level are small. We also show that a SU(3)(L+R) custodial symmetry implies that in some of the models we have to include sterile (singlets of the 3-3-1 symmetry) right-handed neutrinos with Majorana masses, since the seesaw mechanism is mandatory to obtain light active neutrinos. Moreover, the approximate SU(2)(L+R)subset of SU(3)(L+R) symmetry implies that the extra nonstandard particles of these 3-3-1 models can be considerably lighter than it had been thought before so that new physics can be really just around the corner.

THE HIGGS PORTAL and AN UNIFIED MODEL FOR DARK ENERGY and DARK MATTER

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)