Alarm tree analysis using statistical techniques

This work presents a systematic method for the generation and treatment of the alarms' graphs, being its final object to find the Alarm Root Cause of the Massive Alarms that are produced in the dispatching centers. Although many works about this matter have been already developed, the problem about the alarm management in the industry is still completely unsolved. In this paper, a simple statistic analysis of the historical data base is conducted. The results obtained by the acquisition alarm systems, are used to generate a directed graph from which the more significant alarms are extracted, previously analyzing any possible case in which a great quantity of alarms are produced.

Accurate reconstruction of a known HIV-1 transmission history by phylogenetic tree analysis.

Phylogenetic analyses are increasingly used in attempts to clarify transmission patterns of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), but there is a continuing discussion about their validity because convergent evolution and transmission of minor HIV variants may obscure epidemiological patterns. Here we have studied a unique HIV-1 transmission cluster consisting of nine infected individuals, for whom the time and direction of each virus transmission was exactly known. Most of the transmissions occurred between 1981 and 1983, and a total of 13 blood samples were obtained approximately 2-12 years later. The p17 gag and env V3 regions of the HIV-1 genome were directly sequenced from uncultured lymphocytes. A true phylogenetic tree was constructed based on the knowledge about when the transmissions had occurred and when the samples were obtained. This complex, known HIV-1 transmission history was compared with reconstructed molecular trees, which were calculated from the DNA sequences by several commonly used phylogenetic inference methods [Fitch-Margoliash, neighbor-joining, minimum-evolution, maximum-likelihood, maximum-parsimony, unweighted pair group method using arithmetic averages (UPGMA), and a Fitch-Margoliash method assuming a molecular clock (KITSCH)]. A majority of the reconstructed trees were good estimates of the true phylogeny; 12 of 13 taxa were correctly positioned in the most accurate trees. The choice of gene fragment was found to be more important than the choice of phylogenetic method and substitution model. However, methods that are sensitive to unequal rates of change performed more poorly (such as UPGMA and KITSCH, which assume a constant molecular clock). The rapidly evolving V3 fragment gave better reconstructions than p17, but a combined data set of both p17 and V3 performed best. The accuracy of the phylogenetic methods justifies their use in HIV-1 research and argues against convergent evolution and selective transmission of certain virus variants.

Project risk management using multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis:a case study of Indian oil refinery

This study proposes an integrated analytical framework for effective management of project risks using combined multiple criteria decision-making technique and decision tree analysis. First, a conceptual risk management model was developed through thorough literature review. The model was then applied through action research on a petroleum oil refinery construction project in the Central part of India in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. Oil refinery construction projects are risky because of technical complexity, resource unavailability, involvement of many stakeholders and strict environmental requirements. Although project risk management has been researched extensively, practical and easily adoptable framework is missing. In the proposed framework, risks are identified using cause and effect diagram, analysed using the analytic hierarchy process and responses are developed using the risk map. Additionally, decision tree analysis allows modelling various options for risk response development and optimises selection of risk mitigating strategy. The proposed risk management framework could be easily adopted and applied in any project and integrated with other project management knowledge areas.

Classification tree analysis of postal questionnaire data to identify risk of excessive gestational weight gain

OBJECTIVE: overweight/obese weight status during pregnancy increases risk of a range of adverse health outcomes for mother and child. Whereas identification of those who are overweight/obese pre-pregnancy and in early pregnancy is straightforward, prediction of who will experience excessive gestational weight gain (EGWG), and thus be at greater risk of becoming overweight or obese during pregnancy is more challenging. The present study sought to better identify those at risk of EGWG by exploring pre-pregnancy BMI as well as a range of psychosocial risk factors identified as risk factors in prior research. METHODS: 225 pregnant women completed self-reported via postal survey measures of height, weight, and psychosocial variables at 16-18 weeks gestation, and reported their weight again at 32-34 weeks to calculate GWG. Classification and regression tree analysis (CART) was used to find subgroups in the data with increased risk of EGWG based on their pre-pregnancy BMI and psychosocial risk factor scores at Time 1. FINDINGS: CART confirmed that self-reported BMI status was a strong predictor of EGWG risk for women who were overweight/obese pre-pregnancy. Normal weight women with low motivation to maintain a healthy diet and who reported lower levels of partner support were also at considerable risk of EGWG. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: present findings offer support for inclusion of psychosocial measures (in addition to BMI) in early antenatal visits to detect risk of EGWG. However, these findings also underscore the need for further consideration of effect modifiers that place women at increased or decreased risk of EGWG. Proposed additional constructs are discussed to direct further theory-driven research.

Ilmastonmuutoksen ääri-ilmiöihin liittyvän riskienhallinnan kustannus–hyötyanalyysi osana julkista päätöksentekoa. IRTORISKI-hankkeen loppuraportti.

IRTORISKI-hankkeessa tutkittiin, miten kustannus–hyötyanalyysin käyttöä ilmastonmuutoksen sopeutumissuunnittelussa voitaisiin helpottaa niin, että sitä pystyttäisiin hyödyntämään kustannustehokkaasti sekä ilmastonmuutokseen liittyvien vaarojen priorisoinnissa että ennaltaehkäisevien toimenpiteiden vertailussa. Tutkimuksessa käytettiin esimerkkitapauksina jokitulvaa ja rankkasateiden aiheuttamaa tulvaa kaupunkiolosuhteissa. Tapahtumapuuanalyysia laajennettiin siten, että siitä käyvät ilmi sekä suorat vahingot että lopulliset makrotaloudelliset vaikutukset. Arviot suorista taloudellisista vahingoista perustuivat aikaisempiin tutkimuksiin, kun taas makrotaloudellisia vaikutuksia simuloitiin yleisen tasapainon mallin avulla. Tapaustutkimusten valinnasta, tapahtumapuun käytöstä, sen laajennusosasta sekä lasketuista makrotaloudellisista vaikutuksista keskusteltiin sidosryhmien edustajien kanssa kolmessa asiantuntijaistunnossa.

Le tecniche di Risk Management per i progetti di costruzione: il caso studio della riqualificazione e recupero funzionale dell'ex-Manifattura Tabacchi per la realizzazione del Tecnopolo di Bologna

La disciplina del Risk Management assume recentemente un significato ed un peso crescenti nel panorama delle organizzazioni pubbliche e private. Nel campo delle costruzioni pubbliche, in particolare, l’attuazione di processi strutturati di Gestione del Rischio potrebbe portare ad un efficientamento significativo del processo di costruzione e gestione. Obiettivo di questa tesi è verificare in che modo i risultati di un’applicazione strutturata di un processo di Gestione del Rischio possono essere impiegati dal gruppo di management per perseguire scelte più consapevoli, precise e circostanziate rispetto ai metodi tradizionali di gestione del processo. L’analisi parte da uno studio comparativo dei metodi e delle norme tecniche di Risk Management proposte in ambito internazionale. I risultati ottenuti vengono poi applicati al caso studio relativo al progetto di insediamento del Tecnopolo di Bologna presso l’area nota come Ex-Manifattura Tabacchi. L’applicazione delle tecniche al caso di studio è strutturata come una esecuzione completa del processo di Valutazione del Rischio. La fase di Identificazione viene svolta tramite un’analisi della letteratura, la sottoposizione al giudizio degli esperti, e si conclude con una categorizzazione dei rischi mediante Risk Breakdown Structure. La fase di Quantificazione del Rischio è attuata tramite una prima fase di analisi qualitativa con la somministrazione di un questionario on-line ad una platea di soggetti competenti; seguita da un’analisi quantitativa svolta con il software “RiskyProject®” per realizzare una analisi di Montecarlo ed analisi di sensitività. Al termine vengono esaminate alcune possibili misure di trattamento specifiche per un rischio definito prioritario. I risultati proposti mostrano come sia possibile ottenere in fase preliminare una descrizione consapevole delle incertezze del progetto, e che tale consapevolezza può essere utilizzata con lo scopo di migliorare la qualità e l’efficacia dell’intero processo.

Analysis of eruptive and seismic sequences to improve the short-and long-term eruption forecasting

Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).

Reliability analysis for hazard and operability studies

Fault tree analysis is used as a tool within hazard and operability (Hazop) studies. The present study proposes a new methodology for obtaining the exact TOP event probability of coherent fault trees. The technique uses a top-down approach similar to that of FATRAM. This new Fault Tree Disjoint Reduction Algorithm resolves all the intermediate events in the tree except OR gates with basic event inputs so that a near minimal cut sets expression is obtained. Then Bennetts' disjoint technique is applied and remaining OR gates are resolved. The technique has been found to be appropriate as an alternative to Monte Carlo simulation methods when rare events are countered and exact results are needed. The algorithm has been developed in FORTRAN 77 on the Perq workstation as an addition to the Aston Hazop package. The Perq graphical environment enabled a friendly user interface to be created. The total package takes as its input cause and symptom equations using Lihou's form of coding and produces both drawings of fault trees and the Boolean sum of products expression into which reliability data can be substituted directly.

The search for the IFN-gamma receptor in fish: Functional and expression analysis of putative binding and signalling chains in rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss

Interferons (IFNs), consisting of three major subfamilies, type I, type II (gamma) and type III (lambda) IFN, activate vertebrate antiviral defences once bound to their receptors. The three IFN subfamilies bind to different receptors, IFNAR1 and IFNAR2 for type I IFNs, IFN gamma R1 and IFN gamma R2 for type II IFN, and IL-28R1 and IL-10R2 for type III IFNs. In fish, although many types I and II IFN genes have been cloned, little is known about their receptors. In this report, two putative IFN-gamma receptor chains were identified and sequenced in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and found to have many common characteristics with mammalian type II IFN receptor family members. The presented gene synteny analysis, phylogenetic tree analysis and ligand binding analysis all suggest that these molecules are the authentic IFN gamma Rs in fish. They are widely expressed in tissues, with IFN gamma R1 typically more highly expressed than IFN gamma R2. Using the trout RTG-2 cell line it was possible to show that the individual chains could be differentially modulated, with rIFN-gamma and rIL-1 beta down regulating IFN gamma R1 expression but up regulating IFN gamma R2 expression. Overexpression of the two receptor chains in RTG-2 cells revealed that the level of IFN gamma R2 transcript was crucial for responsiveness to rIFN-gamma, in terms of inducing gamma IP expression. Transfection experiments showed that the two putative receptors specifically bound to rIFN-gamma. These findings are discussed in the context of how the IFN gamma R may bind IFN-gamma in fish and the importance of the individual receptor chains to signal transduction. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Molecular identification and expression analysis of tumor necrosis factor receptor-associated factor 2 in grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idella

Tumor necrosis factor receptor-associated factor 2 (TRAF2) is a crucial component of almost the entire tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily signaling pathway. In the present study, a TRAF2 gene has been cloned from grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and rapid amplification of cDNA ends. The full-length cDNA is 3162 bp, including a 60 bp 5' untranslated region (UTR), a 1611 bp open reading frame, and a 1491 bp 3' UTR. The polyadenylation signal (AATAAA) and the mRNA instability motifs (ATTTTA, ATTTA) were followed by a poly(A) tail in the 3' UTR. No signal peptide or transmembrane region has been found in the putative amino acids of grass carp TRAF2 (gcTRAF2). Phylogenetic tree analysis clearly showed that gcTRAF2 is nearest to the TRAF2 gene of goldfish. The identity of gcTRAF2 with its homologs in other vertebrates ranges from 56% to 97%. It is characterized by one RING-type signature at the N-terminus, one zinc finger in the middle part, and one conserved TRAF domain consisting of a C-proximal (TRAF-C) subdomain and a N-proximal (TRAF-N) subdomain. The identity of TRAF-C among all TRAF2 homologs in vertebrates varies from 78% to 97%, whereas the identity of TRAF-N ranges from 56% to 100%. The recombinant gcTRAF2 has been expressed in Escherichia coli using pET-32a expression vector. The rabbit anti-gcTRAF2 polyclonal antibody was obtained. The expression of gcTRAF2 in different organs was examined by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction and Western blot analysis. It was widely distributed in heart, head kidney, thymus, brain, gill, liver, spleen, and trunk kidney. This is the first report of a TRAF2 homolog molecule in fish.

Combining Functional and Structural Reasoning for Safety Analysis of Electrical Designs

C.J.Price, D.R.Pugh, N.A.Snooke, J.E.Hunt, M.S.Wilson, Combining Functional and Structural Reasoning for Safety Analysis of Electrical Designs, Knowledge Engineering Review, vol 12:3, pp.271-287, 1997.

Triangular flow in event-by-event ideal hydrodynamics in Au+Au collisions at √SNN = 200A GeV

The first calculation of triangular flow ν3 in Au+Au collisions at √sNN = 200A GeV from an event-by-event (3 + 1) d transport+hydrodynamics hybrid approach is presented. As a response to the initial triangularity Ie{cyrillic, ukrainian}3 of the collision zone, ν3 is computed in a similar way to the standard event-plane analysis for elliptic flow ν2. It is found that the triangular flow exhibits weak centrality dependence and is roughly equal to elliptic flow in most central collisions. We also explore the transverse momentum and rapidity dependence of ν2 and ν3 for charged particles as well as identified particles. We conclude that an event-by-event treatment of the ideal hydrodynamic evolution startingwith realistic initial conditions generates the main features expected for triangular flow. © 2010 The American Physical Society.