'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.

'Biased' Risk Perceptions of Longevity and Disability in Old Age

Rational learning theories postulate that information channels and cognitive biases such as individual optimism may influence an individual¿s assessment of the risk of undesired events, especially with regard to those that have a cumulative nature. This is the case with disability in old age, which may take place upon survival to an advanced age, and such factors have been regarded as responsible for certain individual behaviours (for example, the limited incidence of insurance purchase). This paper examines the determinants of individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age and longevity. The cumulative nature of such perceptions of risk is tested, and potential biases are identified, including `optimism¿ and a set of information determinants. Empirical evidence from a representative survey of Catalonia is presented to illustrate these effects. The findings from this research suggest a significant overestimation of disability in old age, yet this is not the case with longevity. Furthermore, individual perceptions with regard to disability in old age, unlike those with regard to longevity, exhibit on aggregate an `optimistic bias¿ and, are perceived as `cumulative risks¿. Gender influences the perceived risk of disability in old age at a population level but not at the individual level, and the opposite holds true for age. Finally, self-reported health status is the main variable behind risk perceptions at both the individual and population level.

Selection of bee species for environmental risk assessment of GM cotton in the Brazilian Cerrado

The objective of this work was to list potential candidate bee species for environmental risk assessment (ERA) of genetically modified (GM) cotton and to identify the most suited bee species for this task, according to their abundance and geographical distribution. Field inventories of bee on cotton flowers were performed in the states of Bahia and Mato Grosso, and in Distrito Federal, Brazil. During a 344 hour sampling, 3,470 bees from 74 species were recovered, at eight sites. Apis mellifera dominated the bee assemblages at all sites. Sampling at two sites that received no insecticide application was sufficient to identify the three most common and geographically widespread wild species: Paratrigona lineata, Melissoptila cnecomola, and Trigona spinipes, which could be useful indicators of pollination services in the ERA. Indirect ordination of common wild species revealed that insecticides reduced the number of native bee species and that interannual variation in bee assemblages may be low. Accumulation curves of rare bee species did not saturate, as expected in tropical and megadiverse regions. Species-based approaches are limited to analyze negative impacts of GM cotton on pollinator biological diversity. The accumulation rate of rare bee species, however, may be useful for evaluating possible negative effects of GM cotton on bee diversity.

Environmental Risk: Should Banks Be Liable?

This paper studies the impact of banks' liability for environmental damages caused by their borrowers. Laws or court decisions that declare banks liable for environmental damages have two objectives : (1) finding someone to pay for the damages and (2) exerting a pressure on a firm's stakeholders to incite them to invest in environmental risk prevention. We study the effect that such legal decisions can have on financing relationships and especially on the incentives to reduce environmental risk in an environment where banks cannot commit to refinance the firm in all circumstances. Following an environmental accident, liable banks more readily agree to refinance the firm. We then show that bank liability effectively makes refinancing more attractive to banks, therefore improving the firm's risk-sharing possibilities. Consequently, the firm's incentives to invest in environmental risk reduction are weakened compared to the (bank) no-liability case. We also show that, when banks are liable, the firm invests at the full-commitment optimal level of risk reduction investment. If there are some externalities such that some damages cannot be accounted for, the socially efficient level of investment is greater than the privately optimal one. in that case, making banks non-liable can be socially desirable.

A simple approach to integrate the ecotoxicological and chemical data for the establishment of environmental risk levels

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

ACUTE TOXICITY and ENVIRONMENTAL RISK of OXYTETRACYLINE and FLORFENICOL ANTIBIOTICS TO PACU (Piaractus mesopotamicus)

The oxytetracyline (OTC) and florfenicol (FLO) are the most used antibiotics for bacterial disease control in fish. The aims are: estimating the lethal concentration 50% initial (LC(I) 50;48h) of OTC (Terramicina (R)) and FLO (Aquaflor (R)) for pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus); classifying OTC and FLO according to the acute toxicity and the risk of environmental intoxication; and assessing OTC and FLO dilution effect in water quality variables. Fish were acclimatized for 10 days in a bioassay room at 27 +/- 2 degrees C. Then nine animals (three each concentration) were exposed to 7.0; 7.5; 8.0 or 8.5 mg L(-1) of OTC or to 600.0; 700.0; 800.0; 900.0 and 1000.0 mg L(-1) of FLO and a control treatment. The water quality variables recorded daily were: pH, temperature, electric conductivity, and dissolved oxygen. OTC and FLO were classified according to acute toxicity and environmental risk. The estimated OTC LC(I) 50;48h for pacu is 7.6 mg L(-1) and the estimated FLO is > 1000 mg L(-1). OTC reduced the dissolved oxygen concentration, and it was considered moderately toxic, causing risk of environmental intoxication to pacu. FLO is not toxic; it does not cause risk of environmental intoxication to pacu and does not change water quality variables.

Environmental risk factors for canine toxoplasmosis in a deprived district of Botucatu, SP, Brazil

Toxoplasmosis is a worldwide zoonosis caused by Toxoplasma gondii that can infect a large variety of animals, including humans. The present study aimed to evaluate the frequency of anti-T. gondii antibodies in dogs from a peripheral district of Botucatu and to establish the association among some epidemiological variables in order to evaluate risk factors for toxoplasmosis infection. Serum samples from dogs were screened using an indirect fluorescent antibody (IFA) test. Anti-T. gondii antibody prevalence was 56%. The highest titer was 1024 (1.79%) and the most frequent titers were 16 (57.14%) and 64 (33.93%). The chi-square (X-2) test revealed significant association among variables such as dog access to street, ingestion of raw meat and presence of synantropic animals in the domestic environment. These results demonstrate that toxoplasmosis is present in dogs from Jardim Santa Elisa district.

Acute toxicity and environmental risk of teflubenzuron to Daphnia magna, Poecilia reticulata and Lemna minor in the absence and presence of sediment

This study aimed to estimate the acute toxicity of teflubenzuron (1-(3,5-dichloro-2,4-difluorophenyl)-3-(2,6-difluorobenzoyl)urea) (TFB) for Daphnia magna, Lemna minor and Poecilia reticulata, in the absence and presence of sediment; evaluate the effect of sediment on the TFB bioavailability; and to classify this insecticide according to its environmental poisoning risk for agricultural and aquaculture uses. The tests of TFB acute toxicity were conducted in static system in a completely randomized design with increasing TFB concentrations, and a control group. The TFB has been classified according to the estimated values of EC50 and LC50 by its acute toxicity and environmental risk. The sediment significantly reduced toxicity and bioavailability of TFB in water column. Therefore, the insecticide can be classified as being highly toxic to Daphnia magna, which means the agricultural and aquacultural uses of TFB pose a high risk of environmental toxicity to non-target organisms. However, it was practically non-toxic to L. minor and P. reticulata. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

ECOTOXICITY AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK ASSESSMENT OF LARVICIDES USED IN THE CONTROL OF Aedes aegypti TO Daphnia magna ( CRUSTACEA, CLADOCERA)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Genetic and environmental risk factors in congenital heart disease functionally converge in protein networks driving heart development

Congenital heart disease (CHD) occurs in similar to 1% of newborns. CHD arises from many distinct etiologies, ranging from genetic or genomic variation to exposure to teratogens, which elicit diverse cell and molecular responses during cardiac development. To systematically explore the relationships between CHD risk factors and responses, we compiled and integrated comprehensive datasets from studies of CHD in humans and model organisms. We examined two alternative models of potential functional relationships between genes in these datasets: direct convergence, in which CHD risk factors significantly and directly impact the same genes and molecules and functional convergence, in which risk factors significantly impact different molecules that participate in a discrete heart development network. We observed no evidence for direct convergence. In contrast, we show that CHD risk factors functionally converge in protein networks driving the development of specific anatomical structures (e.g., outflow tract, ventricular septum, and atrial septum) that are malformed by CHD. This integrative analysis of CHD risk factors and responses suggests a complex pattern of functional interactions between genomic variation and environmental exposures that modulate critical biological systems during heart development.