Relationships between plant traits and climate in the Mediterranean region: an analysis based on pollen data

Question: What are the correlations between the degree of drought stress and temperature, and the adoption of specific adaptive strategies by plants in the Mediterranean region? Location: 602 sites across the Mediterranean region. Method: We considered 12 plant morphological and phenological traits, and measured their abundance at the sites as trait scores obtained from pollen percentages. We conducted stepwise regression analyses of trait scores as a function of plant available moisture (α) and winter temperature (MTCO). Results: Patterns in the abundance for the plant traits we considered are clearly determined by α, MTCO or a combination of both. In addition, trends in leaf size, texture, thickness, pubescence and aromatic leaves and other plant level traits such as thorniness and aphylly, vary according to the life form (tree, shrub, forb), the leaf type (broad, needle) and phenology (evergreen, summer-green). Conclusions: Despite conducting this study based on pollen data we have identified ecologically plausible trends in the abundance of traits along climatic gradients. Plant traits other than the usual life form, leaf type and leaf phenology carry strong climatic signals. Generally, combinations of plant traits are more climatically diagnostic than individual traits. The qualitative and quantitative relationships between plant traits and climate parameters established here will help to provide an improved basis for modelling the impact of climate changes on vegetation and form a starting point for a global analysis of pollen-climate relationships

Dengue Virus Type 3 Adaptive Changes during Epidemics in Sao Jose de Rio Preto, Brazil, 2006-2007

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Dengue virus type 3 adaptive changes during epidemics in São Jose de Rio Preto, Brazil, 2006–2007

Global dengue virus spread in tropical and sub-tropical regions has become a major international public health concern. It is evident that DENV genetic diversity plays a significant role in the immunopathology of the disease and that the identification of polymorphisms associated with adaptive responses is important for vaccine development. The investigation of naturally occurring genomic variants may play an important role in the comprehension of different adaptive strategies used by these mutants to evade the human immune system. In order to elucidate this role we sequenced the complete polyprotein-coding region of thirty-three DENV-3 isolates to characterize variants circulating under high endemicity in the city of São José de Rio Preto, Brazil, during the onset of the 2006-07 epidemic. By inferring the evolutionary history on a local-scale and estimating rates of synonymous (dS) and nonsynonimous (dN) substitutions, we have documented at least two different introductions of DENV-3 into the city and detected 10 polymorphic codon sites under significant positive selection (dN/dS > 1) and 8 under significant purifying selection (dN/dS < 1). We found several polymorphic amino acid coding sites in the envelope (15), NS1 (17), NS2A (11), and NS5 (24) genes, which suggests that these genes may be experiencing relatively recent adaptive changes. Furthermore, some polymorphisms correlated with changes in the immunogenicity of several epitopes. Our study highlights the existence of significant and informative DENV variability at the spatio-temporal scale of an urban outbreak.

Scientific Institutions in a Society of Transition: Strategies of Modernisation

Kristina Petkova (Group Leader), Tzocho Boyadgiev, Galin Gornev, Ivan Tcholakov (Bulgaria), Martin Bauer (Switzerland). Scientific Institutions in a Society of Transition: Strategies of Modernisation. Ms. Petkova is involved in teaching and research in the Institute of Sociology of the Bulgarian Academy of Science and led this project, which was carried out between July 1995 and June 1997. The aims of this project were a) to outline the main adaptive strategies of scientific institutions in a situation of social transition, and b) to analyse the opportunities for mobilising public opinion in support scientific work. The group began from the assumption that the social representation of science reflects the historical development of society as a whole. They developed a theoretical model describing the position of science in the three main types of society in the world today (modern, post-modern, totalitarian) and carried out three types of investigation: a representative survey of the public understanding of scientific institutions in Bulgaria; an in-depth cross-national investigation (Bulgarian - Great Britain); and a content analysis of how science is represented in two national newspapers, the "Rabotnichesko Delo" and the "Daily Telegraph". The results showed that Bulgarian public opinion has a more standard view of science and a more optimistic vision of scientific development than do the British, but that there is a certain insensitivity to the risks of scientific results, etc. The group conclude that in order to survive, scientific institutions in Bulgaria should change their passive attitude and adopt active strategies in both their relationships with the state, and in their contacts with private business and with the institutions of civil society.

Novel strategies in feedforward adaptation to a position-dependent perturbation

To investigate the control mechanisms used in adapting to position-dependent forces, subjects performed 150 horizontal reaching movements over 25 cm in the presence of a position-dependent parabolic force field (PF). The PF acted only over the first 10 cm of the movement. On every fifth trial, a virtual mechanical guide (double wall) constrained subjects to move along a straight-line path between the start and target positions. Its purpose was to register lateral force to track formation of an internal model of the force field, and to look for evidence of possible alternative adaptive strategies. The force field produced a force to the right, which initially caused subjects to deviate in that direction. They reacted by producing deviations to the left, into the force field, as early as the second trial. Further adaptation resulted in rapid exponential reduction of kinematic error in the latter portion of the movement, where the greatest perturbation to the handpath was initially observed, whereas there was little modification of the handpath in the region where the PF was active. Significant force directed to counteract the PF was measured on the first guided trial, and was modified during the first half of the learning set. The total force impulse in the region of the PF increased throughout the learning trials, but it always remained less than that produced by the PF. The force profile did not resemble a mirror image of the PF in that it tended to be more trapezoidal than parabolic in shape. As in previous studies of force-field adaptation, we found that changes in muscle activation involved a general increase in the activity of all muscles, which increased arm stiffness, and selectively-greater increases in the activation of muscles which counteracted the PF. With training, activation was exponentially reduced, albeit more slowly than kinematic error. Progressive changes in kinematics and EMG occurred predominantly in the region of the workspace beyond the force field. We suggest that constraints on muscle mechanics limit the ability of the central nervous system to employ an inverse dynamics model to nullify impulse-like forces by generating mirror-image forces. Consequently, subjects adopted a strategy of slightly overcompensating for the first half of the force field, then allowing the force field to push them in the opposite direction. Muscle activity patterns in the region beyond the boundary of the force field were subsequently adjusted because of the relatively-slow response of the second-order mechanics of muscle impedance to the force impulse.

Static, dynamic, and adaptive heterogeneity in distributed smart camera networks

We study heterogeneity among nodes in self-organizing smart camera networks, which use strategies based on social and economic knowledge to target communication activity efficiently. We compare homogeneous configurations, when cameras use the same strategy, with heterogeneous configurations, when cameras use different strategies. Our first contribution is to establish that static heterogeneity leads to new outcomes that are more efficient than those possible with homogeneity. Next, two forms of dynamic heterogeneity are investigated: nonadaptive mixed strategies and adaptive strategies, which learn online. Our second contribution is to show that mixed strategies offer Pareto efficiency consistently comparable with the most efficient static heterogeneous configurations. Since the particular configuration required for high Pareto efficiency in a scenario will not be known in advance, our third contribution is to show how decentralized online learning can lead to more efficient outcomes than the homogeneous case. In some cases, outcomes from online learning were more efficient than all other evaluated configuration types. Our fourth contribution is to show that online learning typically leads to outcomes more evenly spread over the objective space. Our results provide insight into the relationship between static, dynamic, and adaptive heterogeneity, suggesting that all have a key role in achieving efficient self-organization.

Adaptive Brain-Computer Interface Systems For Communication in People with Severe Neuromuscular Disabilities

Brain-computer interfaces (BCI) have the potential to restore communication or control abilities in individuals with severe neuromuscular limitations, such as those with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). The role of a BCI is to extract and decode relevant information that conveys a user's intent directly from brain electro-physiological signals and translate this information into executable commands to control external devices. However, the BCI decision-making process is error-prone due to noisy electro-physiological data, representing the classic problem of efficiently transmitting and receiving information via a noisy communication channel.

This research focuses on P300-based BCIs which rely predominantly on event-related potentials (ERP) that are elicited as a function of a user's uncertainty regarding stimulus events, in either an acoustic or a visual oddball recognition task. The P300-based BCI system enables users to communicate messages from a set of choices by selecting a target character or icon that conveys a desired intent or action. P300-based BCIs have been widely researched as a communication alternative, especially in individuals with ALS who represent a target BCI user population. For the P300-based BCI, repeated data measurements are required to enhance the low signal-to-noise ratio of the elicited ERPs embedded in electroencephalography (EEG) data, in order to improve the accuracy of the target character estimation process. As a result, BCIs have relatively slower speeds when compared to other commercial assistive communication devices, and this limits BCI adoption by their target user population. The goal of this research is to develop algorithms that take into account the physical limitations of the target BCI population to improve the efficiency of ERP-based spellers for real-world communication.

In this work, it is hypothesised that building adaptive capabilities into the BCI framework can potentially give the BCI system the flexibility to improve performance by adjusting system parameters in response to changing user inputs. The research in this work addresses three potential areas for improvement within the P300 speller framework: information optimisation, target character estimation and error correction. The visual interface and its operation control the method by which the ERPs are elicited through the presentation of stimulus events. The parameters of the stimulus presentation paradigm can be modified to modulate and enhance the elicited ERPs. A new stimulus presentation paradigm is developed in order to maximise the information content that is presented to the user by tuning stimulus paradigm parameters to positively affect performance. Internally, the BCI system determines the amount of data to collect and the method by which these data are processed to estimate the user's target character. Algorithms that exploit language information are developed to enhance the target character estimation process and to correct erroneous BCI selections. In addition, a new model-based method to predict BCI performance is developed, an approach which is independent of stimulus presentation paradigm and accounts for dynamic data collection. The studies presented in this work provide evidence that the proposed methods for incorporating adaptive strategies in the three areas have the potential to significantly improve BCI communication rates, and the proposed method for predicting BCI performance provides a reliable means to pre-assess BCI performance without extensive online testing.

Error estimation and adaptive mesh refinement for aerodynamic flows

This lecture course covers the theory of so-called duality-based a posteriori error estimation of DG finite element methods. In particular, we formulate consistent and adjoint consistent DG methods for the numerical approximation of both the compressible Euler and Navier-Stokes equations; in the latter case, the viscous terms are discretized based on employing an interior penalty method. By exploiting a duality argument, adjoint-based a posteriori error indicators will be established. Moreover, application of these computable bounds within automatic adaptive finite element algorithms will be developed. Here, a variety of isotropic and anisotropic adaptive strategies, as well as $hp$-mesh refinement will be investigated.

High-order hp-adaptive discontinuous Galerkin finite element methods for compressible fluid flows

This article is concerned with the construction of general isotropic and anisotropic adaptive strategies, as well as hp-mesh refinement techniques, in combination with dual-weighted-residual a posteriori error indicators for the discontinuous Galerkin finite element discretization of compressible fluid flow problems.

Distress, coping and posttraumatic growth in refugees from Burma

Refugees flee their countries of origin due to supreme hardship and threat to life; frequently bearing witness to mass atrocity. This research is embedded in a salutogenic paradigm which emphasises strength and adjustment. Twenty-five refugees from Burma who were newly arrived in Australia were interviewed and transcripts were analysed using an Interpretive Phenomenological Analytic (IPA) approach. In addition to themes of distress, data revealed an extraordinary adaptive capacity and highlighted strengths, both individually and collectively. Specific adaptive strategies included religiousness, and a sense of duty to family, community and country. Findings have implications for policy and practice that aim to support refugees and asylum seekers.

The Interplays of Histories, Economies and Cultures in Human Adaptation and Settlement Patterns : The Cases of the Faroe Islands and Greenland

The Arctic peoples are currently faced with the challenge of adapting to climate change. Adaptive strategies have been central for the survival of the Northern communities also in the past. This doctoral dissertation is a comparative study of how two Northern societies, the Faroe Islands and Greenland, have responded to challenges caused by the interplay of environmental, political and socio-economic changes. Its main objective is to describe the characteristics of respective adaptive strategies developed in the two societies and to show which connections exist between adaptation and the development of the settlement patterns. This study is based on document analysis, supported by an analysis of demographic and economic statistics. For the field work, the empirical method of landscape-reading was applied. A narrative approach was used to explain interrelations between adaptive strategies and societal developments in the Faroe Islands and Greenland. Maps illustrating development and changes in settlement patterns in different time periods are central for this study because they illustrate the impacts of adaptation on settlement development. The results of this dissertation show that people in the Faroe Islands and Greenland have consciously developed their settlements and used this as an adaptive strategy: different types of settlements were established depending on which kind of resource base was available. Strong dependency on a single resource is likely to increase the probability that settlement development was impacted by it. The interrelation of natural resource use and settlement pattern development has weakened in the Faroe Islands and Greenland from the mid-1900s. Since then, the importance of the government settlement policies has become pronounced and the existing settlement pattern, including settlements without prospects for genuine economic viability, has been preserved. Currently, the Northern communities are increasingly dependent on worldwide developments. In the light of this study, the communities can respond to challenges of globalization and climate change and develop new kind of adaptive strategies, such as diversification of their economic activities. This dissertation shows that it is important to extend studies about community adaptation in the High North to consider the overall development of the Northern settlement patterns.

Survival in the Rainforest : Change and Resilience among the Punan Vuhang of Eastern Sarawak, Malaysia

This dissertation concerns the Punan Vuhang, former hunter-gatherers who are now part-time farmers living in an area of remote rainforest in the Malaysian state of Sarawak. It covers two themes: first, examining their methods of securing a livelihood in the rainforest, and second looking at their adaptation to a settled life and agriculture, and their response to rapid and large-scale commercial logging. This study engages the long-running debates among anthropologists and ecologists on whether recent hunting-gathering societies were able to survive in the tropical rainforest without dependence on farming societies for food resources. In the search for evidence, the study poses three questions: What food resources were available to rainforest hunter-gatherers? How did they hunt and gather these foods? How did they cope with periodic food shortages? In fashioning a life in the rainforest, the Punan Vuhang survived resource scarcity by developing adaptive strategies through intensive use of their knowledge of the forest and its resources. They also adopted social practices such as sharing and reciprocity, and resource tenure to sustain themselves without recourse to external sources of food. In the 1960s, the Punan Vuhang settled down in response to external influences arising in part from the Indonesian-Malaysian Confrontation. This, in turn, initiated a series of processes with political, economic and religious implications. However, elements of the traditional economy have remained resilient as the people continue to hunt, fish and gather, and are able to farm on an individual basis, unlike neighboring shifting cultivators who need to cooperate with each other. At the beginning of the 21st century, the Punan Vuhang face a new challenge arising from the issue of rights in the context of the state and national law and large-scale commercial logging in their forest habitat. The future seems bleak as they face the social problems of alcoholism, declining leadership, and dependence on cash income and commodities from the market.

Geometric integration applied to moving mesh methods and degenerate Lagrangians

Moving mesh methods (also called r-adaptive methods) are space-adaptive strategies used for the numerical simulation of time-dependent partial differential equations. These methods keep the total number of mesh points fixed during the simulation, but redistribute them over time to follow the areas where a higher mesh point density is required. There are a very limited number of moving mesh methods designed for solving field-theoretic partial differential equations, and the numerical analysis of the resulting schemes is challenging. In this thesis we present two ways to construct r-adaptive variational and multisymplectic integrators for (1+1)-dimensional Lagrangian field theories. The first method uses a variational discretization of the physical equations and the mesh equations are then coupled in a way typical of the existing r-adaptive schemes. The second method treats the mesh points as pseudo-particles and incorporates their dynamics directly into the variational principle. A user-specified adaptation strategy is then enforced through Lagrange multipliers as a constraint on the dynamics of both the physical field and the mesh points. We discuss the advantages and limitations of our methods. The proposed methods are readily applicable to (weakly) non-degenerate field theories---numerical results for the Sine-Gordon equation are presented.

In an attempt to extend our approach to degenerate field theories, in the last part of this thesis we construct higher-order variational integrators for a class of degenerate systems described by Lagrangians that are linear in velocities. We analyze the geometry underlying such systems and develop the appropriate theory for variational integration. Our main observation is that the evolution takes place on the primary constraint and the 'Hamiltonian' equations of motion can be formulated as an index 1 differential-algebraic system. We then proceed to construct variational Runge-Kutta methods and analyze their properties. The general properties of Runge-Kutta methods depend on the 'velocity' part of the Lagrangian. If the 'velocity' part is also linear in the position coordinate, then we show that non-partitioned variational Runge-Kutta methods are equivalent to integration of the corresponding first-order Euler-Lagrange equations, which have the form of a Poisson system with a constant structure matrix, and the classical properties of the Runge-Kutta method are retained. If the 'velocity' part is nonlinear in the position coordinate, we observe a reduction of the order of convergence, which is typical of numerical integration of DAEs. We also apply our methods to several models and present the results of our numerical experiments.

Variação temporal de uma comunidade fitoplanctônica do reservatório de APM-Manso através de modelagem ecológica tridimensional.

A ecologia de reservatórios, que são ecossistemas complexos, dinâmicos e artificiais, vem assumindo destaque no Brasil. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a viabilidade da aplicação, no reservatório de APM-Manso, de um modelo ecológico tridimensional em estudos sobre a dinâmica fitoplanctônica, simulando a variação temporal do fitoplâncton para cenários distintos de carga de nutrientes. O modelo CAEDYM foi acoplado ao ELCOM e simulação foi realizada em duas etapas: uma hidrodinâmica e outra ecológica. Escolheu-se para as simulações o período de cinco meses, a partir de 1 de setembro de 2005. Foram construídos dois cenários de simulação, o primeiro contendo os valores reais de carga de nutrientes dos principais rios contribuintes medidos em campo, e o segundo com redução na carga nutricional destes rios, simulando um possível processo de substituição de áreas florestadas por áreas de pastagem na bacia do rio Manso. A comunidade fitoplanctônica simulada apresentou rápidas respostas à disponibilidade nutricional do ambiente, e os resultados obtidos corroboraram com diversas teorias sobre as estratégias adaptativas e sobre as dinâmicas algais. Dentre as classes simuladas, Bacillariophyceae e Cryptophyceae se mostraram mais sensíveis às reduções de carga, enquanto Chrolophyceae e Cyanophyceae, apesar de terem suas biomassas reduzidas, sofreram menos com o impacto, sugerindo estarem mais adaptadas à limitação de nutrientes. Os picos chuvosos influenciaram positivamente as taxas de crescimento das Bacillariophyceae apenas no Cenário 1, uma vez que a limitação por nutrientes foi mais decisiva para esta classe no Cenário 2. Observou-se em ambas as simulações uma tendência de substituição na dominância de Cyanophyceae por Chlorophyceae.

Abordagem de grupos funcionais no estudo da dinâmica fitoplanctônica da Lagoa de Marapendi, Complexo Lagunar de Jacarepaguá, RJ

A Lagoa de Marapendi é uma lagoa eutrófica do complexo lagunar de Jacarepaguá, Rio de Janeiro. Como conseqüência ao constante e acelerado processo de eutrofização vigente, houve uma mudança na estrutura de sua comunidade fitoplanctônica, o que pode ter um importante significado para diversos componentes do ecossistema, além de inviabilizar diversos usos. Este estudo visou reconhecer os padrões espaciais e temporais do fitoplâncton, identificando os fatores controladores e direcionadores da comunidade, através da comparação entre as abordagens dos grupos taxonômicos e dos grupos funcionais. Foram coletadas amostras mensais em 4 pontos ao longo da lagoa no decorrer do ano de 2008. A análise florística revelou a presença de 45 táxons pertencentes às classes Cyanophyceae, Cryptophyceae, Chlorophyceae, Bacillariophyceae e Dinophyceae. Estes foram alocados em 10 grupos funcionais (GF) sensu Reynolds (H1, K, M, S1, X1, X2, J, C, MP e Y) e em 6 grupos funcionais baseados na morfologia (MBFG). Os dados de biomassa para todas as abordagens testadas foram comparados, juntamente com as variáveis abióticas, através de análises multivariadas de redundância (RDA). A abordagem de GF mostrou ser mais rica em detalhes, evidenciando diferentes estratégias adaptativas de grupos ecológicos de cianobactérias. Contudo, para ambientes eutróficos, rasos e com poucas espécies, tal qual a Lagoa de Marapendi, a utilização da abordagem de MBFG mostra ser mais adequada devido à sua simplicidade de utilização, aliada à boa capacidade de explicação da dinâmica fitoplanctônica.