Finite element models of coseismic deformation due to the 2009 L'Aquila (Italy) and 2008 Wenchuan(China) earthquakes

The topic of my Ph.D. thesis is the finite element modeling of coseismic deformation imaged by DInSAR and GPS data. I developed a method to calculate synthetic Green functions with finite element models (FEMs) and then use linear inversion methods to determine the slip distribution on the fault plane. The method is applied to the 2009 L’Aquila Earthquake (Italy) and to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (China). I focus on the influence of rheological features of the earth's crust by implementing seismic tomographic data and the influence of topography by implementing Digital Elevation Models (DEM) layers on the FEMs. Results for the L’Aquila earthquake highlight the non-negligible influence of the medium structure: homogeneous and heterogeneous models show discrepancies up to 20% in the fault slip distribution values. Furthermore, in the heterogeneous models a new area of slip appears above the hypocenter. Regarding the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the very steep topographic relief of Longmen Shan Range is implemented in my FE model. A large number of DEM layers corresponding to East China is used to achieve the complete coverage of the FE model. My objective was to explore the influence of the topography on the retrieved coseismic slip distribution. The inversion results reveals significant differences between the flat and topographic model. Thus, the flat models frequently adopted are inappropriate to represent the earth surface topographic features and especially in the case of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.

Early Warning For Large Earthquakes: Observations, Models and Real-Time Data Analysis

This thesis is a collection of works focused on the topic of Earthquake Early Warning, with a special attention to large magnitude events. The topic is addressed from different points of view and the structure of the thesis reflects the variety of the aspects which have been analyzed. The first part is dedicated to the giant, 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The main features of the rupture process are first discussed. The earthquake is then used as a case study to test the feasibility Early Warning methodologies for very large events. Limitations of the standard approaches for large events arise in this chapter. The difficulties are related to the real-time magnitude estimate from the first few seconds of recorded signal. An evolutionary strategy for the real-time magnitude estimate is proposed and applied to the single Tohoku-Oki earthquake. In the second part of the thesis a larger number of earthquakes is analyzed, including small, moderate and large events. Starting from the measurement of two Early Warning parameters, the behavior of small and large earthquakes in the initial portion of recorded signals is investigated. The aim is to understand whether small and large earthquakes can be distinguished from the initial stage of their rupture process. A physical model and a plausible interpretation to justify the observations are proposed. The third part of the thesis is focused on practical, real-time approaches for the rapid identification of the potentially damaged zone during a seismic event. Two different approaches for the rapid prediction of the damage area are proposed and tested. The first one is a threshold-based method which uses traditional seismic data. Then an innovative approach using continuous, GPS data is explored. Both strategies improve the prediction of large scale effects of strong earthquakes.

Automation of shear-wave splitting parameter determination of local earthquakes at Yellowstone : application as indicator of crustal stress and temporal variation

Shear-wave splitting can be a useful technique for determining crustal stress fields in volcanic settings and temporal variations associated with activity. Splitting parameters were determined for a subset of local earthquakes recorded from 2000-2010 at Yellowstone. Analysis was automated using an unsupervised cluster analysis technique to determine optimum splitting parameters from 270 analysis windows for each event. Six stations clearly exhibit preferential fast polarization values sub-orthogonal to the direction of minimum horizontal compression. Yellowstone deformation results in a local crustal stress field differing from the regional field dominated by NE-SW extension, and fast directions reflect this difference rotating around the caldera maintaining perpendicularity to the rim. One station exhibits temporal variations concordant with identified periods of caldera subsidence and uplift. From splitting measurements, we calculated a crustal anisotropy of ~17-23% and crack density ~0.12-0.17 possibly resulting from stress-aligned fluid filled microcracks in the upper crust and an active hydrothermal system.

Triggering of volcanic activity by large earthquakes

Statistical analyses of temporal relationships between large earthquakes and volcanic eruptions suggest seismic waves may trigger eruptions even over great (>1000 km) distances, although the causative mechanism is not well constrained. In this study the relationship between large earthquakes and subtle changes in volcanic activity was investigated in order to gain greater insight into the relationship between dynamic stresses propagated by surface waves and volcanic response. Daily measurements from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), onboard the Aura satellite, provide constraints on volcanic sulfur-dioxide (SO2) emission rates as a measure of subtle changes in activity. Time series of SO2 emission rates were produced from OMI data for thirteen persistently active volcanoes from 1 October 2004 to 30 September 2010. In order to quantify the affect of earthquakes at teleseismic distances, we modeled surface-wave amplitudes from the source mechanisms of moment magnitude (Mw) ≥7 earthquakes, and calculated the Peak Dynamic Stress (PDS). We assessed the influence of earthquakes on volcanic activity in two ways: 1) by identifying increases in the SO2 time series data and looking for causative earthquakes and 2) by examining the average emission rate before and after each earthquake. In the first, the SO2 time series for each volcano was used to calculate a baseline threshold for comparison with post-earthquake emission. Next, we generated a catalog of responses based on sustained SO2 emission increases above this baseline. Delay times between each SO2 response and each prior earthquake were analyzed using both the actual earthquake catalog, and a randomly generated catalog of earthquakes. This process was repeated for each volcano. Despite varying multiple parameters, this analysis did not demonstrate a clear relationship between earthquake-generated PDS and SO2 emission. However, the second analysis, which was based on the occurrence of large earthquakes indicated a response at most volcanoes. Using the PDS calculations as a filtering criterion for the earthquake catalog, the SO2 mass for each volcano was analyzed in 28-day windows centered on the earthquake origin time. If the average SO2 mass after the earthquake was greater than an arbitrary percentage of pre-earthquake mass, we identified the volcano as having a response to the event. This window analysis provided insight on what type of volcanic activity is more susceptible to triggering by dynamic stress. The volcanoes with very open systems included in this study, Ambrym, Gaua, Villarrica, Erta Ale and, Turrialba, showed a clear response to dynamic stress while the volcanoes with more closed systems, Merapi, Semeru, Fuego, Pacaya, and Bagana, showed no response.

Earth Science and Communities: Great Earthquakes to Wild Rice

Connections between earth science and communities are not clear to many communities. This talk explores the geologic setting, the infrastructural damage, and the impact on communities of recent large earthquakes in Taiwan, Turkey, Haiti and Japan. Decisions made about geologic hazards had a profound impact on human life and the built environment. Ridgway shares how Purdue is building connections between the scientific community and Native American communities—especially by engaging Native American students in research on tribal lands.

Are great Cascadia earthquakes recorded in the sedimentary records from small forearc lakes?

Here we investigate sedimentary records from four small inland lakes located in the southern Cascadia forearc region for evidence of earthquakes. Three of these lakes are in the Klamath Mountains near the Oregon–California border, and one is in the central Oregon Coast range. The sedimentary sequences recovered from these lakes are composed of normal lake sediment interbedded with disturbance event layers. The thickest of these layers are graded, and appear to be turbidites or linked debrites (turbidites with a basal debris-flow deposit), suggesting rapid deposition. Variations in particle size and organic content of these layers are reflected in the density and magnetic susceptibility data. The frequency and timing of these events, based on radiocarbon ages from detrital organics, is similar to the offshore seismogenic turbidite record from trench and slope basin cores along the Cascadia margin. Stratigraphic correlation of these anomalous deposits based on radiocarbon ages, down-core density, and magnetic susceptibility data between lake and offshore records suggest synchronous triggering. The areal extent and multiple depositional environments over which these events appear to correlate suggest that these deposits were most likely caused by shaking during great Cascadia earthquakes.

Lake sediments as natural seismographs: A compiled record of Late Quaternary earthquakes in Central Switzerland and its implication for Alpine deformation

Central Switzerland lies tectonically in an intraplate area and recurrence rates of strong earthquakes exceed the time span covered by historic chronicles. However, many lakes are present in the area that act as natural seismographs: their continuous, datable and high-resolution sediment succession allows extension of the earthquake catalogue to pre-historic times. This study reviews and compiles available data sets and results from more than 10 years of lacustrine palaeoseismological research in lakes of northern and Central Switzerland. The concept of using lacustrine mass-movement event stratigraphy to identify palaeo-earthquakes is showcased by presenting new data and results from Lake Zurich. The Late Glacial to Holocene mass-movement units in this lake document a complex history of varying tectonic and environmental impacts. Results include sedimentary evidence of three major and three minor, simultaneously triggered basin-wide lateral slope failure events interpreted as the fingerprints of palaeoseismic activity. A refined earthquake catalogue, which includes results from previous lake studies, reveals a non-uniform temporal distribution of earthquakes in northern and Central Switzerland. A higher frequency of earthquakes in the Late Glacial and Late Holocene period documents two different phases of neotectonic activity; they are interpreted to be related to isostatic post-glacial rebound and relatively recent (re-)activation of seismogenic zones, respectively. Magnitudes and epicentre reconstructions for the largest identified earthquakes provide evidence for two possible earthquake sources: (i) a source area in the region of the Alpine or Sub-Alpine Front due to release of accumulated north-west/south-east compressional stress related to an active basal thrust beneath the Aar massif; and (ii) a source area beneath the Alpine foreland due to reactivation of deep-seated strike-slip faults. Such activity has been repeatedly observed instrumentally, for example, during the most recent magnitude 4.2 and 3.5 earthquakes of February 2012, near Zug. The combined lacustrine record from northern and Central Switzerland indicates that at least one of these potential sources has been capable of producing magnitude 6.2 to 6.7 events in the past.

Step-Wise Changes in Glacier Flow Speed Coincide With Calving and Glacial Earthquakes at Helheim Glacier, Greenland

Geodetic observations show several large, sudden increases in flow speed at Helheim Glacier, one of Greenland's largest outlet glaciers, during summer, 2007. These step-like accelerations, detected along the length of the glacier, coincide with teleseismically detected glacial earthquakes and major iceberg calving events. No coseismic offset in the position of the glacier surface is observed; instead, modest tsunamis associated with the glacial earthquakes implicate glacier calving in the seismogenic process. Our results link changes in glacier velocity directly to calving-front behavior at Greenland's largest outlet glaciers, on timescales as short as minutes to hours, and clarify the mechanism by which glacial earthquakes occur. Citation: Nettles, M., et al. (2008), Step-wise changes in glacier flow speed coincide with calving and glacial earthquakes at Helheim Glacier, Greenland, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L24503, doi: 10.1029/2008GL036127.

Linking megathrust earthquakes to brittle deformation in a fossil accretionary complex

Seismological data from recent subduction earthquakes suggest that megathrust earthquakes induce transient stress changes in the upper plate that shift accretionary wedges into an unstable state. These stress changes have, however, never been linked to geological structures preserved in fossil accretionary complexes. The importance of coseismically induced wedge failure has therefore remained largely elusive. Here we show that brittle faulting and vein formation in the palaeo-accretionary complex of the European Alps record stress changes generated by subduction-related earthquakes. Early veins formed at shallow levels by bedding-parallel shear during coseismic compression of the outer wedge. In contrast, subsequent vein formation occurred by normal faulting and extensional fracturing at deeper levels in response to coseismic extension of the inner wedge. Our study demonstrates how mineral veins can be used to reveal the dynamics of outer and inner wedges, which respond in opposite ways to megathrust earthquakes by compressional and extensional faulting, respectively.

Integrated transnational macroseismic data set for the strongest earthquakes of Vrancea

A unique macroseismic data set for the strongest earthquakes occurred since 1940 in Vrancea region, is constructed by a thorough review of all available sources. Inconsistencies and errors in the reported data and in their use are analyzed as well. The final data set, free from inconsistencies, including those at the political borders, contains 9822 observations for the strong intermediate-depth earthquakes: 1940, Mw=7.7; 1977, Mw=7.4; 1986, Mw=7.1; 1990, May 30, Mw=6.9 and 1990, May 31, Mw=6.4; 2004, Mw=6.0. This data set is available electronically as supplementary data for the present paper. From the discrete macroseismic data the continuous macroseismic field is generated using the methodology developed by Molchan et al. (2002) that, along with the unconventional smoothing method Modified Polynomial Filtering (MPF), uses the Diffused Boundary (DB) method, which visualizes the uncertainty in the isoseismal's boundaries. The comparison of DBs with previous isoseismals maps represents a good evaluation criterion of the reliability of earlier published maps. The produced isoseismals can be used not only for the formal comparison between observed and theoretical isoseismals, but also for the retrieval of source properties and the assessment of local responses (Molchan et al., 2011).

Application of a building cost estimation model to the appraisal of the churches damaged by earthquakes in Lorca (Spain)

The objective of this paper is the development of a building cost estimation model whose purpose is to quickly and precisely evaluate rebuilding costs for historic heritage buildings affected by catastrophic events. Specifically, this study will be applied to the monumental buildings owned by the Catholic Church that were affected by two earthquakes on May 11, 2011 in the town of Lorca. To estimate the initial total replacement cost new, calculation model will be applied which, on the one hand, will use two-dimensional metric exterior parameters and, on the other, three-dimensional interior cubic parameters. Based on the total of the analyzed buildings, and considering damage caused by the seismic event, the final reconstruction cost for the building units ruined by the earthquakes can be estimated. The proposed calculation model can also be applied to other emergency scenarios and situations for the quick estimation of construction costs necessary for rebuilding historic heritage buildings which have been affected by catastrophic events that deteriorate or ruin their structural or constructive configuration.

Health monitoring of a new hysteretic damper subjected to earthquakes on a shaking table

This paper presents the experimental results obtained by applying frequency-domain structural health monitoring techniques to assess the damage suffered on a special type of damper called Web Plastifying Damper (WPD). The WPD is a hysteretic type energy dissipator recently developed for the passive control of structures subjected to earthquakes. It consists of several I-section steel segments connected in parallel. The energy is dissipated through plastic deformations of the web of the I-sections, which constitute the dissipative parts of the damper. WPDs were subjected to successive histories of dynamically-imposed cyclic deformations of increasing magnitude with the shaking table of the University of Granada. To assess the damage to the web of the I-section steel segments after each history of loading, a new damage index called Area Index of Damage (AID) was obtained from simple vibration tests. The vibration signals were acquired by means of piezoelectric sensors attached on the I-sections, and non-parametric statistical methods were applied to calculate AID in terms of changes in frequency response functions. The damage index AID was correlated with another energy-based damage index-ID- which past research has proven to accurately characterize the level of mechanical damage. The ID is rooted in the decomposition of the load-displacement curve experienced by the damper into the so-called skeleton and Bauschinger parts. ID predicts the level of damage and the proximity to failure of the damper accurately, but it requires costly instrumentation. The experiments reported in this paper demonstrate a good correlation between AID and ID in a realistic seismic loading scenario consisting of dynamically applied arbitrary cyclic loads. Based on this correlation, it is possible to estimate ID indirectly from the AID, which calls for much simpler and less expensive instrumentation.