Dynamic linkages of real estate and stock markets in Finland

Traditionally real estate has been seen as a good diversification tool for a stock portfolio due to the lower return and volatility characteristics of real estate investments. However, the diversification benefits of a multi-asset portfolio depend on how the different asset classes co-move in the short- and long-run. As the asset classes are affected by the same macroeconomic factors, interrelationships limiting the diversification benefits could exist. This master’s thesis aims to identify such dynamic linkages in the Finnish real estate and stock markets. The results are beneficial for portfolio optimization tasks as well as for policy-making. The real estate industry can be divided into direct and securitized markets. In this thesis the direct market is depicted by the Finnish housing market index. The securitized market is proxied by the Finnish all-sectors securitized real estate index and by a European residential Real Estate Investment Trust index. The stock market is depicted by OMX Helsinki Cap index. Several macroeconomic variables are incorporated as well. The methodology of this thesis is based on the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. The long-run dynamic linkages are studied with Johansen’s cointegration tests and the short-run interrelationships are examined with Granger-causality tests. In addition, impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition analyses are used for robustness checks. The results show that long-run co-movement, or cointegration, did not exist between the housing and stock markets during the sample period. This indicates diversification benefits in the long-run. However, cointegration between the stock and securitized real estate markets was identified. This indicates limited diversification benefits and shows that the listed real estate market in Finland is not matured enough to be considered a separate market from the general stock market. Moreover, while securitized real estate was shown to cointegrate with the housing market in the long-run, the two markets are still too different in their characteristics to be used as substitutes in a multi-asset portfolio. This implies that the capital intensiveness of housing investments cannot be circumvented by investing in securitized real estate.

The Dynamic Relationship between Finnish Stock Market and Commodities

Since different stock markets have become more integrated during 2000s, investors need new asset classes in order to gain diversification benefits. Commodities have become popular to invest in and thus it is important to examine whether the investors should use commodities as a part for portfolio diversification. This master’s thesis examines the dynamic relationship between Finnish stock market and commodities. The methodology is based on Vector Autoregressive models (VAR). The long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and commodities is examined with Johansen cointegration while short-run relationship is examined with VAR models and Granger causality test. In addition, impulse response test and forecast error variance decomposition are employed to strengthen the results of short-run relationship. The dynamic relationships might change under different market conditions. Thus, the sample period is divided into two sub-samples in order to reveal whether the dynamic relationship varies under different market conditions. The results show that Finnish stock market has stable long-run relationship with industrial metals, indicating that there would not be diversification benefits among the industrial metals. The long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and energy commodities is not as stable as the long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and industrial metals. Long-run relationship was found in the full sample period and first sub-sample which indicate less room for diversification. However, the long-run relationship disappeared in the second sub-sample which indicates diversification benefits. Long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and agricultural commodities was not found in the full sample period which indicates diversification benefits between the variables. However, long-run relationship was found from both sub-samples. The best diversification benefits would be achieved if investor invested in precious metals. No long-run relationship was found from either sample. In the full sample period OMX Helsinki had short-run relationship with most of the energy commodities and industrial metals and the causality was mostly running from equities to commodities. During the first sub period the number of short-run relationships and causality shrunk but during the crisis period the number of short-run relationships and causality increased. The most notable result found was unidirectional causality from gold to OMX Helsinki during the crisis period.

Generalized neurofuzzy network modeling algorithms using Bezier-Bernstein polynomial functions and additive decomposition

This paper introduces a new neurofuzzy model construction algorithm for nonlinear dynamic systems based upon basis functions that are Bezier-Bernstein polynomial functions. This paper is generalized in that it copes with n-dimensional inputs by utilising an additive decomposition construction to overcome the curse of dimensionality associated with high n. This new construction algorithm also introduces univariate Bezier-Bernstein polynomial functions for the completeness of the generalized procedure. Like the B-spline expansion based neurofuzzy systems, Bezier-Bernstein polynomial function based neurofuzzy networks hold desirable properties such as nonnegativity of the basis functions, unity of support, and interpretability of basis function as fuzzy membership functions, moreover with the additional advantages of structural parsimony and Delaunay input space partition, essentially overcoming the curse of dimensionality associated with conventional fuzzy and RBF networks. This new modeling network is based on additive decomposition approach together with two separate basis function formation approaches for both univariate and bivariate Bezier-Bernstein polynomial functions used in model construction. The overall network weights are then learnt using conventional least squares methods. Numerical examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of this new data based modeling approach.

Model inter-comparison between statistical and dynamic model assessments of the long-term stability of blanket peat in Great Britain (1940-2099)

We compared output from 3 dynamic process-based models (DMs: ECOSSE, MILLENNIA and the Durham Carbon Model) and 9 bioclimatic envelope models (BCEMs; including BBOG ensemble and PEATSTASH) ranging from simple threshold to semi-process-based models. Model simulations were run at 4 British peatland sites using historical climate data and climate projections under a medium (A1B) emissions scenario from the 11-RCM (regional climate model) ensemble underpinning UKCP09. The models showed that blanket peatlands are vulnerable to projected climate change; however, predictions varied between models as well as between sites. All BCEMs predicted a shift from presence to absence of a climate associated with blanket peat, where the sites with the lowest total annual precipitation were closest to the presence/absence threshold. DMs showed a more variable response. ECOSSE predicted a decline in net C sink and shift to net C source by the end of this century. The Durham Carbon Model predicted a smaller decline in the net C sink strength, but no shift to net C source. MILLENNIA predicted a slight overall increase in the net C sink. In contrast to the BCEM projections, the DMs predicted that the sites with coolest temperatures and greatest total annual precipitation showed the largest change in carbon sinks. In this model inter-comparison, the greatest variation in model output in response to climate change projections was not between the BCEMs and DMs but between the DMs themselves, because of different approaches to modelling soil organic matter pools and decomposition amongst other processes. The difference in the sign of the response has major implications for future climate feedbacks, climate policy and peatland management. Enhanced data collection, in particular monitoring peatland response to current change, would significantly improve model development and projections of future change.

Improved simulation of fire–vegetation interactions in the Land surface Processes and eXchanges dynamic global vegetation model (LPX-Mv1)

The Land surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) model is a fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation model that performs well globally but has problems representing fire regimes and vegetative mix in savannas. Here we focus on improving the fire module. To improve the representation of ignitions, we introduced a reatment of lightning that allows the fraction of ground strikes to vary spatially and seasonally, realistically partitions strike distribution between wet and dry days, and varies the number of dry days with strikes. Fuel availability and moisture content were improved by implementing decomposition rates specific to individual plant functional types and litter classes, and litter drying rates driven by atmospheric water content. To improve water extraction by grasses, we use realistic plant-specific treatments of deep roots. To improve fire responses, we introduced adaptive bark thickness and post-fire resprouting for tropical and temperate broadleaf trees. All improvements are based on extensive analyses of relevant observational data sets. We test model performance for Australia, first evaluating parameterisations separately and then measuring overall behaviour against standard benchmarks. Changes to the lightning parameterisation produce a more realistic simulation of fires in southeastern and central Australia. Implementation of PFT-specific decomposition rates enhances performance in central Australia. Changes in fuel drying improve fire in northern Australia, while changes in rooting depth produce a more realistic simulation of fuel availability and structure in central and northern Australia. The introduction of adaptive bark thickness and resprouting produces more realistic fire regimes in Australian savannas. We also show that the model simulates biomass recovery rates consistent with observations from several different regions of the world characterised by resprouting vegetation. The new model (LPX-Mv1) produces an improved simulation of observed vegetation composition and mean annual burnt area, by 33 and 18% respectively compared to LPX.

THERMAL BEHAVIOR STUDY AND DECOMPOSITION KINETICS OF SALBUTAMOL UNDER ISOTHERMAL AND NON-ISOTHERMAL CONDITIONS

The thermal decomposition of salbutamol (beta(2) - selective adrenoreceptor) was studied using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and thermogravimetry/derivative thermogravimetry (TG/DTG). It was observed that the commercial sample showed a different thermal profile than the standard sample caused by the presence of excipients. These compounds increase the thermal stability of the drug. Moreover, higher activation energy was calculated for the pharmaceutical sample, which was estimated by isothermal and non-isothermal methods for the first stage of the thermal decomposition process. For isothermal experiments the average values were E(act) = 130 kJ mol(-1) (for standard sample) and E(act) = 252 kJ mol(-1) (for pharmaceutical sample) in a dynamic nitrogen atmosphere (50 mL min(-1)). For non-isothermal method, activation energy was obtained from the plot of log heating rates vs. 1/T in dynamic air atmosphere (50 mL min(-1)). The calculated values were E(act) = 134 kJ mol(-1) (for standard sample) and E(act) (=) 139 kJ mol(-1) (for pharmaceutical sample).

Convergence analysis of sampling-based decomposition methods for risk-averse multistage stochastic convex programs

We consider a class of sampling-based decomposition methods to solve risk-averse multistage stochastic convex programs. We prove a formula for the computation of the cuts necessary to build the outer linearizations of the recourse functions. This formula can be used to obtain an efficient implementation of Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming applied to convex nonlinear problems. We prove the almost sure convergence of these decomposition methods when the relatively complete recourse assumption holds. We also prove the almost sure convergence of these algorithms when applied to risk-averse multistage stochastic linear programs that do not satisfy the relatively complete recourse assumption. The analysis is first done assuming the underlying stochastic process is interstage independent and discrete, with a finite set of possible realizations at each stage. We then indicate two ways of extending the methods and convergence analysis to the case when the process is interstage dependent.

Dynamic Morse decompositions for semigroups of homeomorphisms and control systems

In this paper, we introduce the concept of dynamic Morse decomposition for an action of a semigroup of homeomorphisms. Conley has shown in [5, Sec. 7] that the concepts of Morse decomposition and dynamic Morse decompositions are equivalent for flows in metric spaces. Here, we show that a Morse decomposition for an action of a semigroup of homeomorphisms of a compact topological space is a dynamic Morse decomposition. We also define Morse decompositions and dynamic Morse decompositions for control systems on manifolds. Under certain condition, we show that the concept of dynamic Morse decomposition for control system is equivalent to the concept of Morse decomposition.

Hartman-Grobman decomposition when in presence of jumps in the relative degree of the dynamics in an energy harvesting device

This work deals with the nonlinear piezoelectric coupling in vibration-based energy harvesting, done by A. Triplett and D.D. Quinn in J. of Intelligent Material Syst. and Structures (2009). In that paper the first order nonlinear fundamental equation has a three dimensional state variable. Introducing both observable and control variables in such a way the controlled system became a SISO system, we can obtain as a corollary that for a particular choice of the observable variable it is possible to present an explicit functional relation between this variable one, and the variable representing the charge harvested. After-by observing that the structure in the Input-Output decomposition essentially changes depending on the relative degree changes, presenting bifurcation branches in its zero dynamics-we are able in to identify this type of bifurcation indicating its close relation with the Hartman - Grobman theorem telling about decomposition into stable and the unstable manifolds for hyperbolic points.

An active/reactive predispatch model incorporating ramp rate constraints solved by dual decomposition/lagrangian relaxation

The Predispatch model (PD) calculates a short-term generation policy for power systems. In this work a PD model is proposed that improves two modeling aspects generally neglected in the literature: voltage/reactive power constraints and ramp rate constraints for generating units. Reactive power constraints turn the PD into a non-linear problem and the ramp rate constraints couple the problem dynamically in time domain. The solution of the PD is turned into a harder task when such constraints are introduced. The dual decomposition/ lagrangian relaxation technique is used in the solution approach for handing dynamic constraints. As a result the PD is decomposed into a series of independent Optimal Power Flow (FPO) sub problems, in which the reactive power is represented in detail. The solution of the independent FPO is coordinated by means of Lagrange multipliers, so that dynamic constraints are iteratively satisfied. Comparisons between dispatch policies calculated with and without the representation of ramp rate constraints are performed, using the IEEE 30 bus test system. The results point-out the importance of representing such constraints in the generation dispatch policy. © 2004 IEEE.

Thermal behaviour of succinic acid, sodium succinate and its compounds with some bivalent transitions metal ions in dynamic N 2 and CO 2 atmospheres

Thermal stability and thermal decomposition of succinic acid, sodium succinate and its compounds with Mn(II), Fe(II), Co(II), Ni(II), Cu(II) and Zn(II) were investigated employing simultaneous thermogravimetry and differential thermal analysis (TG-DTA) in nitrogen and carbon dioxide atmospheres and TG-FTIR in nitrogen atmosphere. On heating, in both atmospheres the succinic acid melt and evaporate, while for the sodium succinate the thermal decomposition occurs with the formation of sodium carbonate. For the transition metal succinates the final residue up to 1180 °C in N 2 atmosphere was a mixture of metal and metal oxide in no simple stoichiometric relation, except for Zn compound, where the residue was a small quantity of carbonaceous residue. For the CO 2 atmosphere the final residue up to 980 °C was: MnO, Fe 3O 4, CoO, ZnO and mixtures of Ni, NiO and Cu, Cu 2O.

Thermal decomposition kinetics of Brazilian limestones: effect of CO2 partial pressure

The influence of the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (CO2) on the thermal decomposition process of a calcite (CI) and a dolomite (DP) is investigated in this paper using a thermogravimetric analyser. The tests were non-isothermal at five different heating rates in dynamic atmosphere of air with 0% and 15% carbon dioxide (CO2). In the atmosphere without CO2, the average activation energies (E-alpha) were 197.4 kJ mol(-1) and 188.1 kJ mol(-1) for CI and DP, respectively. For the DP with 15% CO2, two decomposition steps were observed, indicating a change of mechanism. The values of E-alpha for 15% CO2 were 378.7 kJ mol(-1) for the CI, and 299.8 kJ mol(-1) (first decomposition) and 453.4 kJ mol(-1) (second decomposition) for the DP, showing that the determination of E-alpha for DP should in this case be considered separately in those two distinct regions. The results obtained in this study are relevant to understanding the behaviour changes in the thermal decomposition of limestones with CO2 partial pressure when applied to technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), in which carbon dioxide is present in high concentrations.

Dynamic characterisation of four nine-story large-panel R.C. buildings in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan): A comparison between experimental ambient vibration analysis and numerical finite element modeling

With the outlook of improving seismic vulnerability assessment for the city of Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan), the global dynamic behaviour of four nine-storey r.c. large-panel buildings in elastic regime is studied. The four buildings were built during the Soviet era within a serial production system. Since they all belong to the same series, they have very similar geometries both in plan and in height. Firstly, ambient vibration measurements are performed in the four buildings. The data analysis composed of discrete Fourier transform, modal analysis (frequency domain decomposition) and deconvolution interferometry, yields the modal characteristics and an estimate of the linear impulse response function for the structures of the four buildings. Then, finite element models are set up for all four buildings and the results of the numerical modal analysis are compared with the experimental ones. The numerical models are finally calibrated considering the first three global modes and their results match the experimental ones with an error of less then 20%.

ICOMF: Towards a Multi-cloud Ecosystem for Dynamic Resource Composition and Scaling

Modern cloud-based applications and infrastructures may include resources and services (components) from multiple cloud providers, are heterogeneous by nature and require adjustment, composition and integration. The specific application requirements can be met with difficulty by the current static predefined cloud integration architectures and models. In this paper, we propose the Intercloud Operations and Management Framework (ICOMF) as part of the more general Intercloud Architecture Framework (ICAF) that provides a basis for building and operating a dynamically manageable multi-provider cloud ecosystem. The proposed ICOMF enables dynamic resource composition and decomposition, with a main focus on translating business models and objectives to cloud services ensembles. Our model is user-centric and focuses on the specific application execution requirements, by leveraging incubating virtualization techniques. From a cloud provider perspective, the ecosystem provides more insight into how to best customize the offerings of virtualized resources.

Airport Taxi Planning: Lagrangian Decomposition

The airport taxi planning (TP) module is a decision tool intended to guide airport surface management operations. TP is defined by a flow network optimization model that represents flight ground movements and improves aircraft taxiing routes and schedules during periods of aircraft congestion. TP is not intended to operate as a stand‐alone tool for airport operations management: on the contrary, it must be used in conjunction with existing departing and arriving traffic tools and overseen by the taxi planner of the airport, also known as the aircraft ground controller. TP must be flexible in order to accommodate changing inputs while maintaining consistent routes and schedules already delivered from past executions. Within this dynamic environment, the execution time of TP may not exceed a few minutes. Classic methods for solving binary multi‐commodity flow networks with side constraints are not efficient enough; therefore, a Lagrangian decomposition methodology has been adapted to solve it. We demonstrate TP Lagrangian decomposition using actual data from the Madrid‐Barajas Airport