Essays in macro finance and monetary economics

Les questions abordées dans les deux premiers articles de ma thèse cherchent à comprendre les facteurs économiques qui affectent la structure à terme des taux d'intérêt et la prime de risque. Je construis des modèles non linéaires d'équilibre général en y intégrant des obligations de différentes échéances. Spécifiquement, le premier article a pour objectif de comprendre la relation entre les facteurs macroéconomiques et le niveau de prime de risque dans un cadre Néo-keynésien d'équilibre général avec incertitude. L'incertitude dans le modèle provient de trois sources : les chocs de productivité, les chocs monétaires et les chocs de préférences. Le modèle comporte deux types de rigidités réelles à savoir la formation des habitudes dans les préférences et les coûts d'ajustement du stock de capital. Le modèle est résolu par la méthode des perturbations à l'ordre deux et calibré à l'économie américaine. Puisque la prime de risque est par nature une compensation pour le risque, l'approximation d'ordre deux implique que la prime de risque est une combinaison linéaire des volatilités des trois chocs. Les résultats montrent qu'avec les paramètres calibrés, les chocs réels (productivité et préférences) jouent un rôle plus important dans la détermination du niveau de la prime de risque relativement aux chocs monétaires. Je montre que contrairement aux travaux précédents (dans lesquels le capital de production est fixe), l'effet du paramètre de la formation des habitudes sur la prime de risque dépend du degré des coûts d'ajustement du capital. Lorsque les coûts d'ajustement du capital sont élevés au point que le stock de capital est fixe à l'équilibre, une augmentation du paramètre de formation des habitudes entraine une augmentation de la prime de risque. Par contre, lorsque les agents peuvent librement ajuster le stock de capital sans coûts, l'effet du paramètre de la formation des habitudes sur la prime de risque est négligeable. Ce résultat s'explique par le fait que lorsque le stock de capital peut être ajusté sans coûts, cela ouvre un canal additionnel de lissage de consommation pour les agents. Par conséquent, l'effet de la formation des habitudes sur la prime de risque est amoindri. En outre, les résultats montrent que la façon dont la banque centrale conduit sa politique monétaire a un effet sur la prime de risque. Plus la banque centrale est agressive vis-à-vis de l'inflation, plus la prime de risque diminue et vice versa. Cela est due au fait que lorsque la banque centrale combat l'inflation cela entraine une baisse de la variance de l'inflation. Par suite, la prime de risque due au risque d'inflation diminue. Dans le deuxième article, je fais une extension du premier article en utilisant des préférences récursives de type Epstein -- Zin et en permettant aux volatilités conditionnelles des chocs de varier avec le temps. L'emploi de ce cadre est motivé par deux raisons. D'abord des études récentes (Doh, 2010, Rudebusch and Swanson, 2012) ont montré que ces préférences sont appropriées pour l'analyse du prix des actifs dans les modèles d'équilibre général. Ensuite, l'hétéroscedasticité est une caractéristique courante des données économiques et financières. Cela implique que contrairement au premier article, l'incertitude varie dans le temps. Le cadre dans cet article est donc plus général et plus réaliste que celui du premier article. L'objectif principal de cet article est d'examiner l'impact des chocs de volatilités conditionnelles sur le niveau et la dynamique des taux d'intérêt et de la prime de risque. Puisque la prime de risque est constante a l'approximation d'ordre deux, le modèle est résolu par la méthode des perturbations avec une approximation d'ordre trois. Ainsi on obtient une prime de risque qui varie dans le temps. L'avantage d'introduire des chocs de volatilités conditionnelles est que cela induit des variables d'état supplémentaires qui apportent une contribution additionnelle à la dynamique de la prime de risque. Je montre que l'approximation d'ordre trois implique que les primes de risque ont une représentation de type ARCH-M (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticty in Mean) comme celui introduit par Engle, Lilien et Robins (1987). La différence est que dans ce modèle les paramètres sont structurels et les volatilités sont des volatilités conditionnelles de chocs économiques et non celles des variables elles-mêmes. J'estime les paramètres du modèle par la méthode des moments simulés (SMM) en utilisant des données de l'économie américaine. Les résultats de l'estimation montrent qu'il y a une évidence de volatilité stochastique dans les trois chocs. De plus, la contribution des volatilités conditionnelles des chocs au niveau et à la dynamique de la prime de risque est significative. En particulier, les effets des volatilités conditionnelles des chocs de productivité et de préférences sont significatifs. La volatilité conditionnelle du choc de productivité contribue positivement aux moyennes et aux écart-types des primes de risque. Ces contributions varient avec la maturité des bonds. La volatilité conditionnelle du choc de préférences quant à elle contribue négativement aux moyennes et positivement aux variances des primes de risque. Quant au choc de volatilité de la politique monétaire, son impact sur les primes de risque est négligeable. Le troisième article (coécrit avec Eric Schaling, Alain Kabundi, révisé et resoumis au journal of Economic Modelling) traite de l'hétérogénéité dans la formation des attentes d'inflation de divers groupes économiques et de leur impact sur la politique monétaire en Afrique du sud. La question principale est d'examiner si différents groupes d'agents économiques forment leurs attentes d'inflation de la même façon et s'ils perçoivent de la même façon la politique monétaire de la banque centrale (South African Reserve Bank). Ainsi on spécifie un modèle de prédiction d'inflation qui nous permet de tester l'arrimage des attentes d'inflation à la bande d'inflation cible (3% - 6%) de la banque centrale. Les données utilisées sont des données d'enquête réalisée par la banque centrale auprès de trois groupes d'agents : les analystes financiers, les firmes et les syndicats. On exploite donc la structure de panel des données pour tester l'hétérogénéité dans les attentes d'inflation et déduire leur perception de la politique monétaire. Les résultats montrent qu'il y a évidence d'hétérogénéité dans la manière dont les différents groupes forment leurs attentes. Les attentes des analystes financiers sont arrimées à la bande d'inflation cible alors que celles des firmes et des syndicats ne sont pas arrimées. En effet, les firmes et les syndicats accordent un poids significatif à l'inflation retardée d'une période et leurs prédictions varient avec l'inflation réalisée (retardée). Ce qui dénote un manque de crédibilité parfaite de la banque centrale au vu de ces agents.

Trois essais en macroéconomie

Les fluctuations économiques représentent les mouvements de la croissance économique. Celle-ci peut connaître des phases d'accélération (expansion) ou de ralentissement (récession), voire même de dépression si la baisse de production est persistente. Les fluctuations économiques sont liées aux écarts entre croissance effective et croissance potentielle. Elles peuvent s'expliquer par des chocs d'offre et demande, ainsi que par le cycle du crédit. Dans le premier cas, les conditions de la production se trouvent modifiées. C'est le cas lorsque le prix des facteurs de production (salaires, prix des matières premières) ou que des facteurs externes influençant le prix des produits (taux de change) évolue. Ainsi, une hausse du prix des facteurs de production provoque un choc négatif et ralentit la croissance. Ce ralentissement peut être également dû à un choc de demande négatif provoqué par une hausse du prix des produits causée par une appréciation de la devise, engendrant une diminution des exportations. Le deuxième cas concerne les variables financières et les actifs financiers. Ainsi, en période d'expansion, les agents économiques s'endettent et ont des comportements spéculatifs en réaction à des chocs d'offre ou demande anticipés. La valeur des titres et actifs financiers augmente, provoquant une bulle qui finit par éclater et provoquer un effondrement de la valeur des biens. Dès lors, l'activité économique ne peut plus être financée. C'est ce qui génère une récession, parfois profonde, comme lors de la récente crise financière. Cette thèse inclut trois essais sur les fluctuations macroéconomiques et les cycles économiques, plus précisément sur les thèmes décrit ci-dessus. Le premier chapitre s'intéresse aux anticipations sur la politique monétaire et sur la réaction des agents écononomiques face à ces anticipations. Une emphase particulière est mise sur la consommation de biens durables et l'endettement relié à ce type de consommation. Le deuxième chapitre aborde la question de l'influence des variations du taux de change sur la demande de travail dans le secteur manufacturier canadien. Finalement, le troisième chapitre s'intéresse aux retombées économiques, parfois négatives, du marché immobilier sur la consommation des ménages et aux répercussions sur le prix des actifs immobiliers et sur l'endettement des ménages d'anticipations infondées sur la demande dans le marché immobilier. Le premier chapitre, intitulé ``Monetary Policy News Shocks and Durable Consumption'', fournit une étude sur le lien entre les dépenses en biens durables et les chocs monétaires anticipés. Nous proposons et mettons en oeuvre une nouvelle approche pour identifier les chocs anticipés (nouvelles) de politique monétaire, en les identifiant de manière récursive à partir des résidus d’une règle de Taylor estimée à l’aide de données de sondage multi-horizon. Nous utilisons ensuite les chocs anticipés inférer dans un modèle autorégressif vectoriel structurel (ARVS). L’anticipation d’une politique de resserrement monétaire mène à une augmentation de la production, de la consommation de biens non-durables et durables, ainsi qu’à une augmentation du prix réel des biens durables. Bien que les chocs anticipés expliquent une part significative des variations de la production et de la consommation, leur impact est moindre que celui des chocs non-anticipés sur les fluctuations économiques. Finalement, nous menons une analyse théorique avec un modèle d’équilibre général dynamique stochastique (EGDS) avec biens durables et rigidités nominales. Les résultats indiquent que le modèle avec les prix des biens durables rigides peut reproduire la corrélation positive entre les fonctions de réponse de la consommation de biens non-durables et durables à un choc anticipé de politique monétaire trouvées à l’aide du ARVS. Le second chapitre s'intitule ``Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Labour Market Adjustments in Canadian Manufacturing Industries''. Dans ce chapitre, nous évaluons la sensibilité de l'emploi et des heures travaillées dans les industries manufacturières canadiennes aux variations du taux de change. L’analyse est basée sur un modèle dynamique de demande de travail et utilise l’approche en deux étapes pour l'estimation des relations de cointégration en données de panel. Nos données sont prises d’un panel de 20 industries manufacturières, provenant de la base de données KLEMS de Statistique Canada, et couvrent une longue période qui inclut deux cycles complets d’appréciation-dépréciation de la valeur du dollar canadien. Les effets nets de l'appréciation du dollar canadien se sont avérés statistiquement et économiquement significatifs et négatifs pour l'emploi et les heures travaillées, et ses effets sont plus prononcés dans les industries davantage exposées au commerce international. Finalement, le dernier chapitre s'intitule ``Housing Market Dynamics and Macroprudential Policy'', dans lequel nous étudions la relation statistique suggérant un lien collatéral entre le marché immobilier and le reste de l'économique et si ce lien est davantage entraîné par des facteurs de demandes ou d'offres. Nous suivons également la littérature sur les chocs anticipés et examinons un cyle d'expansion-récession peut survenir de façon endogène la suite d'anticipations non-réalisées d'une hausse de la demande de logements. À cette fin, nous construisons un modèle néo-Keynésien au sein duquel le pouvoir d’emprunt du partie des consommateurs est limité par la valeur de leur patrimoine immobilier. Nous estimons le modèle en utilisant une méthode Bayésienne avec des données canadiennes. Nous évaluons la capacité du modèle à capter les caractéristiques principales de la consommation et du prix des maisons. Finalement, nous effectuons une analyse pour déterminer dans quelle mesure l'introduction d'un ratio prêt-à-la-valeur contracyclique peut réduire l'endettement des ménages et les fluctuations du prix des maisons comparativement à une règle de politique monétaire répondant à l'inflation du prix des maisons. Nous trouvons une relation statistique suggérant un important lien collatéral entre le marché immobilier et le reste de l'économie, et ce lien s'explique principalement par des facteurs de demande. Nous constatons également que l'introduction de chocs anticipés peut générer un cycle d'expansion-récession du marché immobilier, la récession faisant suite aux attentes non-réalisées par rapport à la demande de logements. Enfin, notre étude suggère également qu'un ratio contracyclique de prêt-à-la-valeur est une politique utile pour réduire les retombées du marché du logement sur la consommation par l'intermédiaire de la valeur garantie.

A compositional statistical analysis of capital stock

Most of economic literature has presented its analysis under the assumption of homogeneous capital stock. However, capital composition differs across countries. What has been the pattern of capital composition associated with World economies? We make an exploratory statistical analysis based on compositional data transformed by Aitchinson logratio transformations and we use tools for visualizing and measuring statistical estimators of association among the components. The goal is to detect distinctive patterns in the composition. As initial findings could be cited that: 1. Sectorial components behaved in a correlated way, building industries on one side and , in a less clear view, equipment industries on the other. 2. Full sample estimation shows a negative correlation between durable goods component and other buildings component and between transportation and building industries components. 3. Countries with zeros in some components are mainly low income countries at the bottom of the income category and behaved in a extreme way distorting main results observed in the full sample. 4. After removing these extreme cases, conclusions seem not very sensitive to the presence of another isolated cases

La travesía obsoleta: la indefensión del consumidor

La obsolescencia programada es el deseo de tener algo un poco más nuevo, un poco mejor, un poco más rápido de lo necesario. El texto estudia este fenómeno a la luz del Estatuto del Consumidor – Ley 1480 de 2011 para determinar si el consumidor colombiano está suficientemente protegido con él.

What Happens When IKEA Comes to Town?

Using data from 2000-2011, the effects of a new IKEA store on retail revenues, employment, and inflow of purchasing power in the entry municipalities, as well as in neighboring municipalities were investigated. A propensity score matching method was used to find non IKEA entry municipalities that were as similar as possible to the entry municipalities based on the situation before entry. Our results indicate that IKEA-entry increased entry-municipality durable-goods revenues by about 20% and employment by about 17%. Only small and, in most cases, statistically insignificant effects were found in neighboring municipalities.

The impact of big-boxes on local retail : What happens when IKEA comes to town?

The development of large discount retailers, or big-boxes as they are sometimes referred to, are often subject to heated debate and their entry on a market is greeted with either great enthusiasm or dread. For instance, the world’s largest retailer Wal-Mart (Forbes 2014) has a number of anti- and pro-groups dedicated to its being and the event of a Wal-Mart entry tends to be met with protests and campaigns (Decamme 2013) but also welcomed by, for instance, consumers (Davis & DeBonis 2013). Also in Sweden, the entry of a big box is a hot topic and before IKEA’s opening i Borlänge 2013, the first in Sweden in more than five years, great expectations were mixed with worry (Västerbottens-Kuriren 2011).The presence of large scale discount retailers is not, however, a novel phenomenon but a part of a long-term change in retailing that has taken place globally over the past couple of decades (Taylor & Smalling, 2005). As noted by Dawson (2006), the trend in Europe has over the past few decades gone towards an increasing concentration of large firms along with a decrease of smaller firms.This trend is also detectable in the Swedish retail industry. Over the past decade, the retailing industry in Sweden has increased by around 190 Billion SEK, and its share of GDP has risen from 2,7% to 2,9%, while the number of employees have increased from 200 000 to 250 000 (HUI 2013). This growth, however, has not been distributed evenly but rather it has been oriented mainly towards out-of-town retail clusters. Parallel to this development, the number of large retailers has risen at the expense of market shares of smaller independent firms (Rämme et al 2010). Thereby, the presence of large scale retailers is simply part of a changing retail landscape.The effects of this development, where large scale retailing agents relocate shopping to out-of-town shopping areas, have been heavily debated. On the one hand, the big-boxes are accused of displacing independent small retail businesses in the city-centers and the residential areas, resulting in, to some extent, reduced employment opportunities and less availability for the consumers - especially the elderly (Ljungberg et al 2006). In addition, as access to shopping now tends to require some sort of a motorized vehicle, environmental aspects to the discussion have emerged. Ultimately these types of concerns have resulted in calls for regulations against this development (Olsson 2010). On the other hand, the proponents of the new shopping landscape argue that this evolution implies productivity gains, the benefits of lower prices and an increased variety of products (Maican & Orth 2012). Moreover it is argued that it leads to, for instance, better services (such as longer opening hours) and a creative destruction transformation pressure on retailers, which brings about a renewal of city-centerIIretail and services, increasing their attractivity (Bergström 2010). The belief in benefits of a big box entry can be exemplified by the attractivity of IKEA, and the fact that municipalities are prepared to commit to expenses amounting up to hundreds of millions in order to attract the entry of this big-box. Borlänge municipality, for instance, agreed to expenses of about 350 million SEK in order to secure the entry of IKEA, which opened in 2013 (Blomgren 2009).Against this backdrop, the overall effects of large discount retailers become important: Are the economic benefits enough to warrant subsidies or are there, on the contrary, some very compelling grounds for regulations against these types of establishments? In other words; how is overall retail in a region where a store like IKEA enters affected? And how are local retail firms affected?In order to answer these questions, the purpose of this thesis is to study how entry of a big-box retailer affects the entry region. The object of this study is IKEA - one of the world’s largest retailers, with 345 stores, active in over 40 countries and with profits of about 3.3 billion (IKEA 2013; IKEA 2014). By studying the effects of IKEA-entry, both on an aggregated level and on firm level, this thesis intends to find indications of how large discount retail establishments in general can be expected to affect the economic development both in a region overall, but also on the local firm level, something which is of interest to both policymakers as well as the retailing industry in general.The first paper examines the effects of IKEA on retail revenues and employment in the municipalities that IKEA chose to enter between 2000 and 2011; Gothenburg, Haparanda, Kalmar and Karlstad. By means of a matching method we first identify non-entry municipalities that have a similar probability of IKEA entry as the true entry municipalities. Then, using these non-entry municipalities as a control group, the causal effects of IKEA entry can be estimated using a treatment-control approach. We also extend the analysis to examine the spatial impact of IKEA by estimating the effects on retail in neighboring municipalities. It is found that a new IKEA store increases revenues in durable goods trade with 20% in the entry municipality and the number of employees with 17%. Only small, and in most cases statistically insignificant, negative effects were found in neighboring municipalities.It appears that there is a positive net effect on durables retail sales and employment in the entry municipality. However, the analysis is based on data on an aggregated municipality level and thereby it remains unclear if and how the effects vary within the entry municipalities. In addition, the data used in the first study includes the sales and employment of IKEA itself, which could account for the majority of the increases in employment and retail. Thereby the potential spillover effects on incumbent retailers in the entry municipalities cannot be discerned in the first study.IIITo examine effects of IKEA entry on incumbent retail firms, the second paper in this thesis analyses how IKEA entry affects the revenues and employment of local retail firms in three municipalities; Haparanda, Kalmar and Karlstad, which experienced entry by IKEA between 2000 and 2010. In this second study, we exclude Gothenburg due to the fact that big-box entry appears to have weaker effects in metropolitan areas (as indicated by Artz & Stone 2006). By excluding Gothenburg we aim to reduce the geographical heterogeneity in our study. We obtain control municipalities that are as similar as possible to the three entry municipalities using the same method as in the previous study, but including a slightly different set of variables in the selection equation. Using similar retail firms in the control municipalities as our comparison group, we estimate the impact of IKEA entry on revenues and employment for retail firms located at varying distances from the IKEA entry site.The results generated in this study imply that entry by IKEA increases revenues in incumbent retail firms by, on average, 11% in the entry municipalities. In addition, we do not find any significant impact on retail revenues in the city centers of the entry municipalities. However, we do find that retail firms within 1 km of the IKEA experience increases in revenues of about 26%, which indicates large spillover effects in the area nearby the entry site. As expected, this impact decreases as we expand the buffer zone: firms located between 0-2 km experiences a 14% increase and firms in 2-5 km experiences an increase of 10%. We do not find any significant impacts on retail employment.

To what extent are CO2 emissions from intra-urban shopping trips by cars affected by drivers’ travel behaviour and store location?

Transportation is seen as one of the major sources of CO2 pollutants nowadays. The impact of increased transport in retailing should not be underestimated. Most previous studies have focused on transportation and underlying trips, in general, while very few studies have addressed the specific affects that, for instance, intra-city shopping trips generate. Furthermore, most of the existing methods used to estimate emission are based on macro-data designed to generate national or regional inventory projections. There is a lack of studies using micro-data based methods that are able to distinguish between driver behaviour and the locational effects induced by shopping trips, which is an important precondition for energy efficient urban planning. The aim of this study is to implement a micro-data method to estimate and compare CO2 emission induced by intra-urban car travelling to a retail destination of durable goods (DG), and non-durable goods (NDG). We estimate the emissions from aspects of travel behaviour and store location. The study is conducted by means of a case study in the city of Borlänge, where GPS tracking data on intra-urban car travel is collected from 250 households. We find that a behavioural change during a trip towards a CO2 optimal travelling by car has the potential to decrease emission to 36% (DG), and to 25% (NDG) of the emissions induced by car-travelling shopping trips today. There is also a potential of reducing CO2 emissions induced by intra-urban shopping trips due to poor location by 54%, and if the consumer selected the closest of 8 existing stores, the CO2 emissions would be reduced by 37% of the current emission induced by NDG shopping trips.

Bubbles, collateral and monetary equilibrium

Consider an economy where infinite-lived agents trade assets collateralized by durable goods. We obtain results that rule out bubbles when the additional endowments of durable goods are uniformly bounded away from zero, regardless of whether the asset’s net supply is positive or zero. However, bubbles may occur, even for state-price processes that generate finite present value of aggregate wealth. First, under complete markets, if the net supply is being endogenously reduced to zero as a result of collateral repossession. Secondly, under incomplete markets, for a persistent positive net supply, under the general conditions guaranteeing existence of equilibrium. Examples of monetary equilibria are provided.

Aplicações de modelos de procura para bens duráveis de baixa liquidez

I use Search models to study decentralized markets of durable goods. I explore the concept of market liquidity of Lippman and McCall (1986) and show that the theory of optimal search is useful to address the following issues: What governs the time required to make a transaction on these markets? What is the relationship between the price of goods and the time required to make transactions? Why is optimal to wait to make a transaction in markets where individuals discount future utility? What is the socially optima search level? Two specifications are used, the traditional model of job search and a version of Krainer and LeRoy (2001) model.

O governo Geisel, o II PND e os economistas

Esta pesquisa pretende analisar o Governo Geisel e o II Plano Nacional de Desenvolvimento, verificando se essa política econômica representou a implantação de um novo padrão de acumulação no Brasil ou se trata de uma fase mais avançada do padrão de acumulação de bens duráveis que vigorava no País com os planos anteriores. O II PND aumentou ou diminuiu a dependência brasileira no contexto internacional? Esse plano é tão heterodoxo quanto o I PND ou representa uma guinada ortodoxa? Qual foi o papel e o peso dos gestores econômicos no Governo Geisel?

Uma investigação empírico-exploratória acerca da rentabilidade dos clientes freqüentes e esporádicos no varejo eletrônico brasileiro

o presente estudo de caso investiga, empiricamente, a rentabilidade associada aos consumidores do varejo eletrônico de bens duráveis no Brasil. Para tal, o arcabouço teórico baseia-se em teorias rivais, notadamente as expostas na literatura tradicional do Marketing de Relacionamento - que discute os beneficios da retenção de clientes - e nas recentes publicações que questionam tal abordagem - argumentando que os consumidores esporádicos podem se mostrar mais valiosos que os freqüentes. Nas duas empresas investigadas, os clientes esporádicos demonstram-se mais rentáveis que os freqüentes. Entretanto, a análise exploratória dos dados qualitativos demonstra que ambas utilizam abordagens transacionais para interagir com os consumidores. O cruzamento das evidências quali-quantitativas sugere que o declínio do valor dos clientes freqüentes está associado a práticas gerenciais que não se encontram em conformidade com a literatura convencional de marketing. Por conseguinte, as evidências quantitativas parecem não representar anomalias perante a teoria vigente, segundo a qual os beneficios inerentes à retenção de consumidores fazem sentido apenas para as empresas que estiverem orientadas a clientes e puderem interagir de forma relacional com os mesmos. O estudo possibilita supor que o valor dos clientes está associado à forma como as empresas se relacionam com o mercado. A adoção de práticas transacionais, a baixa diferenciação e a competição baseada em descontos parece potencializar a sensibilidade ao preço por parte dos consumidores, principalmente daqueles mais freqüentemente.

Distribution strategies for the base of the pyramid: an exploratory study in Brazil

Access has been one of the main difficulties companies have faced in emerging markets (PRAHALAD, 2005). The capillarity of the market, the existence of small, not professionalized and sometimes informal retailers, the lack of infrastructure and high transportation costs are some of the distribution challenges companies face in poorer regions. The literature concerning the Base of the Pyramid (BoP) is still recent and only after the seminal article by Prahalad and Hart (2002), it evolved into many different management perspectives. However, there is a lack of researches concerning distribution strategies to the BoP. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to identify, in the perception of executives working in the market, the conditions associated to a satisfactory distribution for the BoP market in Brazil and to build a substantive theory that helps to shed light to the understanding of the distribution phenomenon adopted by consumer goods companies to reach the BoP market in Brazil. In order to accomplish the objectives of this thesis, a grounded theory methodology (Glaser; Strauss, 1967; Corbin; Strauss, 2008) was used. This approach helped to identify the channel strategies used by local and global companies in the market. Many techniques for data collection were applied. The most important one was in-depth interviews with 26 executives from 24 different consumer goods companies in Brazil. Among the companies there were small, medium and large enterprises; which were also grouped as manufacturers, distributors and retailers. Furthermore, secondary data were examined to identify business strategies to reach BoP and map global distribution initiatives. A database from a consumer panel was also used to analyze what and where BoP consumers purchase non-durable goods. It was verified that small and traditional retailing is a very strong format in BoP markets and in the Northern/Northeastern regions. Cash & Carry is a format that is growing a lot. On the other hand, hypermarkets are not very used by low income population. The results suggest that three major categories are associated to a satisfactory distribution: (a) willingness, which means the effort, knowledge and enthusiasm a firm has to operate at BoP markets; (b) well-done execution, which is related to designing correctly the marketing channel and operating efficiently in an environment full of obstacles, such as lack of infrastructure, capillarity, lack of safety, regional differences and informality, and (c) relationship, which was perceived to be friendlier and essential at BoP markets, since it is very difficult for manufacturers to reach the entire market alone. It is more likely to have a satisfactory distribution when manufacturers establish strong relationships in the marketing channel. Besides, small retailers have a perception of isolation and expect a higher level of relationship. These major categories explain also the competitive advantage that local companies have in relation to MNCs and large companies. Despite of the limitations of an exploratory study, it is expected that this thesis will contribute to the BoP knowledge as well as to the identification of the peculiarities of distribution in BoP markets.

Modelo de mensuração de mercado para bens duráveis: o caso de condicionadores de ar para uso residencial

Trata de uma proposta de mensuração de mercado de bens duráveis em nível municipal. O processo de modelagem assume que: a função deve ser determinada a partir do análise do estágio do produto em seu processo de difusão n o mercado, cada município é uma unidade representada p o r variáveis obtidas através d e dados secundários e os dados secundários a serem coletados podem determinados através d o conhecimento d o comportamento de compra do produto. No modelo, os resíduos sã o tratados como ferramenta estratégica mercadológica. É apresentada uma aplicação do modelo para condicionadores de ar

Valor percebido e a nova lógica dominante de serviço : estudo da indústria brasileira de equipamentos de refrigeração para transporte de cargas

Levitt (1960) apresentou o termo Miopia em Marketing e discutiu sobre o perigo de as organizações centralizarem seu foco no produto e descuidarem da real necessidade dos clientes, já que o produto é apenas um meio para atender à necessidade do cliente e não o fim em si. Na mesma linha, Shostack (1977), quase duas décadas mais tarde, enfatizou a urgência de se entender a posição do Marketing na economia pós-industrial de serviços, em que a lógica tradicional focada em produtos não mais atendia adequadamente o mercado. Portanto, não é recente a visão de que a posse do bem físico é secundária para o atendimento das necessidades do consumidor, sendo fundamental pensar no benefício que o bem proporciona ao cliente quando do seu uso. Mais recentemente, Vargo e Lusch (2004a) retomaram a discussão sobre a importância de as organizações atentarem para as necessidades dos clientes em vez de apenas focarem na transação, ou seja, na ideia de troca de um produto por um valor monetário. Estes autores emergiram novamente com a ideia de que as empresas precisam entregar benefícios aos seus clientes e a que apropriação do serviço gerado pela oferta da empresa é mais importante do que a transferência de posse do bem físico. Eles retomam, desta forma, as ideias de Levitt e Shostack e as modificam para criar a Service-Dominant Logic ou S-D Logic, como eles denominam. A ênfase desta proposta é que o Marketing deixe de considerar a transação de produtos ou serviços como central para a criação de valor, para uma lógica centrada no serviço produzido pelo bem – produto ou serviço. Assim, passa ser fundamental entender como o valor é percebido pelo cliente na fase de uso e focar os esforços na geração desse valor, possibilitando, assim, que empresas que entendam as reais necessidades do mercado, criem vantagem competitiva sustentável. Considerando a proposta destes autores, este trabalho testou a aplicação deste conceito na indústria de equipamentos de refrigeração para transporte de cargas com temperatura controlada no Brasil. Foram entrevistados seis importantes transportadores de carga frigorificada do país, os quais foram questionados sobre o valor do serviço usufruído pela posse do bem em contraposição ao valor percebido de usufruir o serviço sem ter que comprar o bem para tal. Os entrevistados associam muito valor à posse do bem, pois, para eles, isso garante que o serviço não sofrerá interrupções, algo muito valioso para eles. Isso evidencia uma falta de confiança nas alternativas possíveis à compra do ativo pela empresa. A confiança no prestador do serviço é, portanto, elemento chave na avaliação dos benefícios, reforçando achados de estudos anteriores. Foram identificadas diferenças de atribuição de valor para as propostas alternativas de fornecimento em razão da relevância do serviço de transporte refrigerado para a empresa – negócio central ou função de apoio para o negócio central da empresa.

Fatores associados à qualidade da dieta de adultos residentes na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo, Brasil, 2002

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)