Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change

Estimates of the response of crops to climate change rarely quantify the uncertainty inherent in the simulation of both climate and crops. We present a crop simulation ensemble for a location in India, perturbing the response of both crop and climate under both baseline (12 720 simulations) and doubled-CO2 (171720 simulations) climates. Some simulations used parameter values representing genotypic adaptation to mean temperature change. Firstly, observed and simulated yields in the baseline climate were compared. Secondly, the response of yield to changes in mean temperature was examined and compared to that found in the literature. No consistent response to temperature change was found across studies. Thirdly, the relative contribution of uncertainty in crop and climate simulation to the total uncertainty in projected yield changes was examined. In simulations without genotypic adaptation, most of the uncertainty came from the climate model parameters. Comparison with the simulations with genotypic adaptation and with a previous study suggested that the relatively low crop parameter uncertainty derives from the observational constraints on the crop parameters used in this study. Fourthly, the simulations were used, together with an observed dataset and a simple analysis of crop cardinal temperatures and thermal time, to estimate the potential for adaptation using existing cultivars. The results suggest that the germplasm for complete adaptation of groundnut cultivation in western India to a doubled-CO2 environment may not exist. In conjunction with analyses of germplasm and local management

Quantifying uncertainty in the simulation of crop-climate processes

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter (λ, the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO2) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966–1989 mean yields of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of λ near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO2. The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.

Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones in a warming climate in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model

Changes to the Northern Hemisphere winter (December, January and February) extratropical storm tracks and cyclones in a warming climate are investigated. Two idealised climate change experiments with HiGEM1.1, a doubled CO2 and a quadrupled CO2 experiment, are compared against a present day control run. An objective feature tracking method is used and a focus given to regional changes. The climatology of extratropical storm tracks from the control run is shown to be in good agreement with ERA-40, while the frequency distribution of cyclone intensity also compares well. In both simulations the mean climate changes are generally consistent with the simulations of the IPCC AR4 models, with a strongly enhanced surface warming at the winter pole and the reduced lower tropospheric warming over the North Atlantic Ocean associated with the slowdown of the Meridional Overturning Circulation. The circulation changes in the North Atlantic are different between the two idealised simulations with different CO2 forcings. In the North Atlantic the storm tracks are influenced by the slowdown of the MOC, the enhanced surface polar warming, and the enhanced upper tropical troposphere warming, giving a north eastward shift of the storm tracks in the 2XCO2 experiment, but no shift in the 4XCO2 experiment. Over the Pacific, in the 2XCO2 experiment, changes in the mean climate are associated with local temperature changes, while in the 4XCO2 experiment the changes in the Pacific are impacted by the weakened tropical circulation. The storm track changes are consistent with the shifts in the zonal wind. Total cyclone numbers are found to decrease over the Northern Hemisphere with increasing CO2 forcing. Changes in cyclone intensity are found using 850hPa vorticity, mean sea level pressure, and 850hPa winds. The intensity of the Northern Hemisphere cyclones is found to decrease relative to the control.

Origin of regional climate differences: role of boundary conditions and model formulation in two GCMs

Model differences in projections of extratropical regional climate change due to increasing greenhouse gases are investigated using two atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs): ECHAM4 (Max Planck Institute, version 4) and CCM3 (National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model version 3). Sea-surface temperature (SST) fields calculated from observations and coupled versions of the two models are used to force each AGCM in experiments based on time-slice methodology. Results from the forced AGCMs are then compared to coupled model results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 2 (CMIP2) database. The time-slice methodology is verified by showing that the response of each model to doubled CO2 and SST forcing from the CMIP2 experiments is consistent with the results of the coupled GCMs. The differences in the responses of the models are attributed to (1) the different tropical SST warmings in the coupled simulations and (2) the different atmospheric model responses to the same tropical SST warmings. Both are found to have important contributions to differences in implied Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter extratropical regional 500 mb height and tropical precipitation climate changes. Forced teleconnection patterns from tropical SST differences are primarily responsible for sensitivity differences in the extratropical North Pacific, but have relatively little impact on the North Atlantic. There are also significant differences in the extratropical response of the models to the same tropical SST anomalies due to differences in numerical and physical parameterizations. Differences due to parameterizations dominate in the North Atlantic. Differences in the control climates of the two coupled models from the current climate, in particular for the coupled model containing CCM3, are also demonstrated to be important in leading to differences in extratropical regional sensitivity.

Synoptic scale disturbances of the Indian Summer Monsoon as simulated in a high resolution climate model

Hamburg atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM3 at T106 resolution (1.125' lat.Aon.) has considerable skill in reproducing the observed seasonal reversal of mean sea level pressure, the location of the summer heat low as well as the position of the monsoon trough over the Indian subcontinent. The present-day climate and its seasonal cycle are realistically simulated by the model over this region. The model simulates the structure, intensity, frequency, movement and lifetime of monsoon depressions remarkably well. The number of monsoon depressions/storms simulated by the model in a year ranged from 5 to 12 with an average frequency of 8.4 yr-', not significantly different from the observed climatology. The model also simulates the interannual variability in the formation of depressions over the north Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon season. In the warmer atmosphere under doubled CO2 conditions, the number of monsoon depressions/cyclonic storms forming in Indian seas in a year ranged from 5 to 11 with an average frequency of 7.6 yr-', not significantly different from those inferred in the control run of the model. However, under doubled CO2 conditions, fewer depressions formed in the month of June. Neither the lowest central pressure nor the maximum wind speed changes appreciably in monsoon depressions identified under simulated enhanced greenhouse conditions. The analysis suggests there will be no significant changes in the number and intensity of monsoon depressions in a warmer atmosphere.

The importance of moisture distribution for the growth and energetics of mid-latitude systems

A primitive equation model is used to study the sensitivity of baroclinic wave life cycles to the initial latitude-height distribution of humidity. Diabatic heating is parametrized only as a consequence of condensation in regions of large-scale ascent. Experiments are performed in which the initial relative humidity is a simple function of model level, and in some cases latitude bands are specified which are initially relatively dry. It is found that the presence of moisture can either increase or decrease the peak eddy kinetic energy of the developing wave, depending on the initial moisture distribution. A relative abundance of moisture at mid-latitudes tends to weaken the wave, while a relative abundance at low latitudes tends to strengthen it. This sensitivity exists because competing processes are at work. These processes are described in terms of energy box diagnostics. The most realistic case lies on the cusp of this sensitivity. Further physical parametrizations are then added, including surface fluxes and upright moist convection. These have the effect of increasing wave amplitude, but the sensitivity to initial conditions of relative humidity remains. Finally, 'control' and 'doubled CO2' life cycles are performed, with initial conditions taken from the time-mean zonal-mean output of equilibrium GCM experiments. The attenuation of the wave resulting from reduced baroclinicity is more pronounced than any effect due to changes in initial moisture.

Compensation between resolved wave driving and parameterized orographic gravity wave driving of the Brewer–Dobson circulation and its response to climate change

Following recent findings, the interaction between resolved (Rossby) wave drag and parameterized orographic gravity wave drag (OGWD) is investigated, in terms of their driving of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC), in a comprehensive climate model. To this end, the parameter that effectively determines the strength of OGWD in present-day and doubled CO2 simulations is varied. The authors focus on the Northern Hemisphere during winter when the largest response of the BDC to climate change is predicted to occur. It is found that increases in OGWD are to a remarkable degree compensated by a reduction in midlatitude resolved wave drag, thereby reducing the impact of changes in OGWD on the BDC. This compensation is also found for the response to climate change: changes in the OGWD contribution to the BDC response to climate change are compensated by opposite changes in the resolved wave drag contribution to the BDC response to climate change, thereby reducing the impact of changes in OGWD on the BDC response to climate change. By contrast, compensation does not occur at northern high latitudes, where resolved wave driving and the associated downwelling increase with increasing OGWD, both for the present-day climate and the response to climate change. These findings raise confidence in the credibility of climate model projections of the strengthened BDC.

Improving a gas ion source for C-14 AMS

For more than 4 years, gaseous samples of 1-50 mu g carbon have been routinely measured with the gas ion source of the small AMS (Accelerator Mass Spectrometer) facility MICADAS (Mini CArbon DAting System) at ETH Zurich. The applied measurement technique offers a simple and fast way of C-14 measurements without the need of sample graphitization. A major drawback of gaseous C-14 measurements, however, is the relatively low negative ion current, which results in longer measurement times and lower precision compared to graphitized samples. In December 2009, a new, improved Cs sputter ion source was installed at MICADAS and we began to optimize conditions for the measurement of gaseous samples. C-12(-) currents from the new ion source were improved from initially 3 to 12-15 mu A for routine measurements and the negative ion yield was increased by a factor of 2, reaching 8 on average during routine operation. Moreover, the new measurement settings enable a doubled CO2 flow, thus substantially reducing measurement times. The achieved performance allows closing the sample size gap between gaseous and solid samples and makes the gas ion source a promising tool for dating with a measurement precision of 5 parts per thousand on samples as small as 50 mu g carbon. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and community metabolism during an experiment with a coral reef, 2003

The effect of elevated pCO2 on the metabolism of a coral reef community dominated by macroalgae has been investigated utilizing the large 2650 m3 coral reef mesocosm at the Biosphere-2 facility near Tucson, Arizona. The carbonate chemistry of the water was manipulated to simulate present-day and a doubled CO2 future condition. Each experiment consisted of a 1-2 month preconditioning period followed by a 7-9 day observational period. The pCO2 was 404 ± 63 ?atm during the present-day pCO2 experiment and 658 ± 59 ?atm during the elevated pCO2 experiment. Nutrient levels were low and typical of natural reefs waters (NO3? 0.5-0.9 ?M, NH4+ 0.4 ?M, PO43? 0.07-0.09 ?M). The temperature and salinity of the water were held constant at 26.5 ± 0.2°C and 34.4 ± 0.2 ppt. Photosynthetically available irradiance was 10 ± 2 during the present-day experiment and 7.4 ± 0.5 mol photons m?2 d?1 during the elevated pCO2 experiment. The primary producer biomass in the mesocosm was dominated by four species of macroalgae; Haptilon cubense, Amphiroa fragillisima, Gelidiopsis intricata and Chondria dasyphylla. Algal biomass was 10.4 mol C m?2 during the present-day and 8.7 mol C m?2 and during the elevated pCO2 experiments. As previously observed, the increase in pCO2 resulted in a decrease in calcification from 0.041 ± 0.007 to 0.006 ± 0.003 mol CaCO3 m?2 d?1. Net community production (NCP) and dark respiration did not change in response to elevated pCO2. Light respiration measured by a new radiocarbon isotope dilution method exceeded dark respiration by a factor of 1.2 ± 0.3 to 2.1 ± 0.4 on a daily basis and by 2.2 ± 0.6 to 3.9 ± 0.8 on an hourly basis. The 1.8-fold increase with increasing pCO2 indicates that the enhanced respiration in the light was not due to photorespiration. Gross production (GPP) computed as the sum of NCP plus daily respiration (light + dark) increased significantly (0.24 ± 0.03 vs. 0.32 ± 0.04 mol C m?2 d?1). However, the conventional calculation of GPP based on the assumption that respiration in the light proceeds at the same rate as the dark underestimated the true rate of GPP by 41-100% and completely missed the increased rate of carbon cycling due to elevated pCO2. We conclude that under natural, undisturbed, nutrient-limited conditions elevated CO2 depresses calcification, stimulates the rate of turnover of organic carbon, particularly in the light, but has no effect on net organic production. The hypothesis that an increase pCO2 would produce an increase in net production that would counterbalance the effect of decreasing saturation state on calcification is not supported by these data.

Effects of doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration on the photosynthesis and growth of Chlorella pyrenoidosa cultured at varied levels of light

Chlorella pyrenoidosa was cultured with 350 and 700 p.p.m.v. CO2 at varied levels of light to see the impacts of doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration on its growth and photosynthesis. The CO2 enrichment did not affect the growth rate (mu), but significantly increased the cell density when light was sufficiently supplied. The CO2 enrichment significantly depressed light-saturated photosynthesis and dark respiration in the cells grown under a high-light regime, but not those under a low-light regime. The light-saturating point for photosynthesis and photosynthetic efficiency was not affected by the CO2 enrichment under either the high-light or low-light conditions.

植物根系、根区微生物对大气CO2浓度倍增的反应及其生态学意

预测下世纪中叶，大气CO_2浓度将高到目前的两倍（即达到700μ1•1~(-1)）。CO_2倍增对植物地上部的影响已经有了较多的研究，胆是由于方法学上的困难，至今关于倍增CO_2对植物根及根区微生物的研究仍是非常匮乏。本文应用国际上最新的根研究方法，以根系为中心，研究开顶式CO_2C熏蒸培养室中，CO_2倍增条件下根系与地上部，根系与根区微生物[共生的泡囊－丛枝菌根（VAM）真菌，非共生的土壤微生物]的关系。 1. CO_2倍增对根系的影响目前CO_2倍增对根系影响的研究多集中在根生物量的测定，或根／冠比值的测定，而善于其它参数如根长度则很少涉及，而根表面的反应目前还未见文献报道。本实验以幼苗期小麦“青323”（Triticum aestivum）、水稻“中作 29”(Oryza sativa)、大豆“科农4号”（Glycine max）、玉米“农大3138”（Zea mays）、甜高粱“M－81E”（Sorghum saccharatum）为材料，研究CO_2倍增对植物生物量的影响，发现CO_2倍增使C_3植物水稻、大豆的地上部、根系干重均显著增加，使小麦的根系干重显著增加，地上部无显著差异;C_4植物玉米和甜高粱的地上部和根系均没有显著反应。植物干重反应资料表明在光合产物的分配方面，C_3和C_4植物之间存在巨大的差异。 为了解根系获取土壤资源的能力的变化，我们对根系总长度和总表面积进行了分析。用样格交叉法研究根系长度的变化，结果显示，幼苗期的小麦、大豆的根系长度均被显著促进，尤其值得注意的是，尽管玉米根系干重没有显著改变，但是根长度已发生显著变化。同时应用研究根系表面积的最新方法－Na NO_2吸附法，研究发现幼苗期小麦、水稻和大豆的根系表面积在CO_2倍增条件下均显著增加，C_4植物玉米的根表面积亦有显著增加，但甜高粱的根表面积却没有显著反应，这说明即使在C_4植物类型中，根系表面积的反应在不同物种间仍存在很大差异。由于根长度和根表面积增幅大于根干重的增幅，所以推断在CO_2倍增条件下，植物根系细根比例增加，这有利于植物获取更多的养分。由于不同植物之间根系的反应不同，这将改变群落中原有的根系竞争关系，从而影响群落中物种的组成。 2. CO_2倍增对VAM真菌侵染强度和活力的影响本文应用NBT染色法，并结合浸染强度等级和活力等级标准，首次对CO_2倍增条件下，植物VAM真菌的侵染强度和活力的变化进行了检测。对比常规的酸性品红乳酸甘油法和NBT法，发现两者在显示侵染强度时元显著差异，但后者能同时用于侵染活力等级的研究。对幼苗期大豆以及不同生长期的小麦和玉米根系VAM真菌的侵染强度和活力进行观测，结果显示，倍增CO_2对大豆的侵染强度和活力均没有显著效应;使幼苗期玉米的侵染强度显著增加，但侵染活力无显著差异，但随生长期的推移，侵染强度所受的CO_2倍增效应逐渐减小，与14天苗龄（DAP）和35DAP相比，侵染活力在22DAP时所受效应最大;使10DAP小麦的VAM侵染强度和活力均显著增加，而且这种效应在30DAP小麦中的表现与10DAP小麦的相同。说明C_3、C_4植物中，菌根真菌对CO_2倍增反应不同，这也许是C_3、C_4植物对CO_2倍增反应不同的原因之一。倍增CO_2改善了VAM真菌的发育，所以较之于非菌根侵染植物，菌根侵染植物将因为CO_2倍增而获益更多，另一方面不同种植物中，VAM真菌的发育反应不同，这将使植物群落中，根系获取无机营养的竞争能力发生变化，最终影响植物群落的物种丰度和生物多样性以及群落的演替。 3. CO_2倍增对非共生土壤微生物的影响CO_2倍增使生长70天的小麦、垂柳（Salix babylonica）、藜(Chenopodium album)、繁穗苋（Amaranthus cruentus）品种“红苋K112”的地上部和根系的生物量增加。以这些植物所在土壤为材料，用氯仿熏蒸直接提取法研究土壤微生物生物量C（C_(mic)）和生物量N（N_(mic)）的变化，发现CO_2倍增尽管使各类型植物的C_4植物）土壤中C_(mic)的变化趋势不完全相同（小麦和藜所在土壤的C_(mic)下降，垂柳中C_(mic)升高，而在繁穗苋中无显著差异），但N_(mic)在各物种所在土壤中均有不同程度的上升，在繁穗苋中增幅最大。C_(mic):N_(mic)比值在4个物种所在土壤中均明显下降，这意味着CO_2倍增后在植物生长后期，土壤微生物活性提高，分解植物凋落物和土壤中其它有机质的能力加强，从而改善贫瘠土壤中有机质质量。 4.CO_2倍增对植物呼吸和光合作用及C素积累的影响 1）CO_2倍增对植物暗呼吸的影响：以杜仲（Eucommia ulmoides）、紫花苜蓿(Medicago sativa)和玉米等10种植物的离体成熟叶片或整株为材料，研究不同测定温度（15～35 ℃）下，CO_2倍增对植物暗呼吸的影响。结果表明：在较低温度（15 ℃、20 ℃）下，CO_2倍增对植物暗呼吸没有显著效应;在较高温度（30 ℃、35 ℃）时，多数被测植物的暗呼吸显著增强。由于植物在不同温度时它们的暗咱吸受CO_2倍增的促进幅度不同，这将导致不同地区（环境温度不同）的植物暗呼吸反应有差异，而且由于不同物种的暗呼吸增幅不同，综合光合效应，它们的生物量的反应也会不同。 2）CO_2倍增对整株植物的CO_2气体交换及植物C素积累的影响：利用自行设计的一套CO_2气体测定装置，首次尝试同步测定CO_2倍增条件下幼苗期小麦地下部和地上部的气体交换在昼夜24小时内的变化及C素的积累。发现CO_2倍增不仅使小麦地上部C素的积累增加，也使地下部释放的C素增加，但整株植物的C素收入仍高于对照两倍多，这从植物与环境的CO_2气体交换角度为CO_2倍增促进植物生物量的增加提供了依据。并首次提出：植物的整体性及植物所在的环境条件（主要是温度和光照强度）决定着植物暗呼吸对CO_2倍增的响应方式：被抑制或无效应。

Daily timing of emersion and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration affect photosynthetic performance of the intertidal macroalga Ulva lactuca (Chlorophyta) in sunlight

The lunar day differs in length from the solar day so that times of low tide vary from day to day. Thus, aerial exposure of intertidal seaweeds may be during the day or during the night. We measured photosynthetic CO, assimilation rates of the intertidal green macroalga Ulva lactuca during exposures of varied daily timings during sunny days of summer to establish how photosynthetic performance responds to emersion timing under varied CO2 levels [at ambient (360 ppmv) and 2x ambient (720 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations]. There was an increase in net photosynthetic rates following some duration of exposure when the initial timing of exposure occurred during early morning (06.30 h) and late afternoon (17.15 h). In contrast, net rates exhibited a sharp decline with exposure duration when the initial timing of exposure occurred at 09.30 h, 15.30 h and especially at noon (12.30 h), implying the occurrence of a severe photoinhibition resulting from mid-day insolation. Doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration significantly enhanced the emersed photosynthetic rates, indicating that the emersed photosynthesis is CO2-limited at ambient CO2 levels. However, increasing CO2 barely stimulates the emersed photosynthetic rates during mid-day insolation.

Response of an Arctic Sediment Nitrogen Cycling Community to Increased CO2

Ocean acidification influences sediment/water nitrogen fluxes, possibly by impacting on the microbial process of ammonia oxidation. To investigate this further, undisturbed sediment cores collected from Ny Alesund harbour (Svalbard) were incubated with seawater adjusted to CO2 concentrations of 380, 540, 760, 1,120 and 3,000 μatm. DNA and RNA were extracted from the sediment surface after 14 days' exposure and the abundance of bacterial and archaeal ammonia oxidising (amoA) genes and transcripts quantified using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. While there was no change to the abundance of bacterial amoA genes, an increase to 760 μatm pCO2 reduced the abundance of bacterial amoA transcripts by 65 %, and this was accompanied by a shift in the composition of the active community. In contrast, archaeal amoA gene and transcript abundance both doubled at 3,000 μatm, with an increase in species richness also apparent. This suggests that ammonia oxidising bacteria and archaea in marine sediments have different pH optima, and the impact of elevated CO2 on N cycling may be dependent on the relative abundances of these two major microbial groups. Further evidence of a shift in the balance of key N cycling groups was also evident: the abundance of nirS-type denitrifier transcripts decreased alongside bacterial amoA transcripts, indicating that NO3 − produced by bacterial nitrification fuelled denitrification. An increase in the abundance of Planctomycete-specific 16S rRNA, the vastmajority of which grouped with known anammox bacteria, was also apparent at 3,000 μatm pCO2. This could indicate a possible shift from coupled nitrification–denitrification to anammox activity at elevated CO2.

The responses of eight coral reef calcifiers to increasing partial pressure of CO2 do not exhibit a tipping point

The objective of this study was to investigate whether a tipping point exists in the calcification responses of coral reef calcifiers to CO2. We compared the effects of six partial pressures of CO2 (PCO2) from 28 Pa to 210 Pa on the net calcification of four corals (Acropora pulchra, Porites rus, Pocillopora damicornis, and Pavona cactus), and four calcified algae (Hydrolithon onkodes, Lithophyllum flavescens, Halimeda macroloba, and Halimeda minima). After 2 weeks of acclimation in a common environment, organisms were incubated in 12 aquaria for 2 weeks at the targeted PCO2 levels and net calcification was quantified. All eight species calcified at the highest PCO2 in which the calcium carbonate aragonite saturation state was ~1. Calcification decreased linearly as a function of increasing partial PCO2 in three corals and three algae. Overall, the decrease in net calcification as a function of decreasing pH was ~10% when ambient PCO2 (39 Pa) was doubled. The calcification responses of P. damicornis and H. macroloba were unaffected by increasing PCO2. These results are inconsistent with the notion that coral reefs will be affected by rising PCO2 in a response characterized by a tipping point. Instead, our findings combined among taxa suggest a gradual decline in calcification will occur, but this general response includes specific cases of complete resistance to rising PCO2. Together our results suggest that the overall response of coral reef communities to ocean acidification will be monotonic and inversely proportional to PCO2, with reef-wide responses dependent on the species composition of calcifying taxa.