Variability Modeling Of Rainfall, Deforestation, And Incidence Of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis In Orán, Argentina, 1985-2007.

American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) is a disease transmitted to humans by the female sandflies of the genus Lutzomyia. Several factors are involved in the disease transmission cycle. In this work only rainfall and deforestation were considered to assess the variability in the incidence of ATL. In order to reach this goal, monthly recorded data of the incidence of ATL in Orán, Salta, Argentina, were used, in the period 1985-2007. The square root of the relative incidence of ATL and the corresponding variance were formulated as time series, and these data were smoothed by moving averages of 12 and 24 months, respectively. The same procedure was applied to the rainfall data. Typical months, which are April, August, and December, were found and allowed us to describe the dynamical behavior of ATL outbreaks. These results were tested at 95% confidence level. We concluded that the variability of rainfall would not be enough to justify the epidemic outbreaks of ATL in the period 1997-2000, but it consistently explains the situation observed in the years 2002 and 2004. Deforestation activities occurred in this region could explain epidemic peaks observed in both years and also during the entire time of observation except in 2005-2007.

Modeling The Effects Of Temperature And Ph On The Resistance Of Alicyclobacillus Acidoterrestris In Conventional Heat-treated Fruit Beverages Through A Meta-analysis Approach.

In this work, all publicly-accessible published findings on Alicyclobacillus acidoterrestris heat resistance in fruit beverages as affected by temperature and pH were compiled. Then, study characteristics (protocols, fruit and variety, °Brix, pH, temperature, heating medium, culture medium, inactivation method, strains, etc.) were extracted from the primary studies, and some of them incorporated to a meta-analysis mixed-effects linear model based on the basic Bigelow equation describing the heat resistance parameters of this bacterium. The model estimated mean D* values (time needed for one log reduction at a temperature of 95 °C and a pH of 3.5) of Alicyclobacillus in beverages of different fruits, two different concentration types, with and without bacteriocins, and with and without clarification. The zT (temperature change needed to cause one log reduction in D-values) estimated by the meta-analysis model were compared to those ('observed' zT values) reported in the primary studies, and in all cases they were within the confidence intervals of the model. The model was capable of predicting the heat resistance parameters of Alicyclobacillus in fruit beverages beyond the types available in the meta-analytical data. It is expected that the compilation of the thermal resistance of Alicyclobacillus in fruit beverages, carried out in this study, will be of utility to food quality managers in the determination or validation of the lethality of their current heat treatment processes.

Supercritical CO2 recovery of caffeine from green coffee oil: new experimental solubility data and modeling

The caffeine solubility in supercritical CO2 was studied by assessing the effects of pressure and temperature on the extraction of green coffee oil (GCO). The Peng-Robinson¹ equation of state was used to correlate the solubility of caffeine with a thermodynamic model and two mixing rules were evaluated: the classical mixing rule of van der Waals with two adjustable parameters (PR-VDW) and a density dependent one, proposed by Mohamed and Holder² with two (PR-MH, two parameters adjusted to the attractive term) and three (PR-MH3 two parameters adjusted to the attractive and one to the repulsive term) adjustable parameters. The best results were obtained with the mixing rule of Mohamed and Holder² with three parameters.

Evolução temporal da dengue no município de Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, 1994 a 2003

Este estudo caracteriza-se epidemiológico-descritivo com objetivo de descrever a evolução temporal dos casos de dengue em Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo, no período de 1994 a 2003, segundo mês de ocorrência e sexo. Os dados foram obtidos junto às fichas de notificação compulsória fornecidas pela Vigilância Epidemiológica da Secretaria Municipal de Saúde do município. Foram obtidos os coeficientes de incidência por 100.000 habitantes, segundo estimativas populacionais do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. O município viveu uma epidemia de dengue no ano de 2001, quando o coeficiente de incidência chegou a 619,65 casos/100.000 habitantes, sendo que dentre os 5.553 casos encontrados no período estudado, 0,07% ocorreram no ano de 1994, 3,68% em 1995, 4,52% em 1996, 2,40% em 1997, 1,82% em 1998, 5,73% em 1999, 3,75% em 2000, 57,37% em 2001, 6,25% em 2002 e, 14,39% em 2003 . Os meses do ano de maior ocorrência da doença foram de janeiro a maio. Em relação à variável sexo, a proporção entre o número de casos foi de aproximadamente 1:1, mostrando pequenas flutuações de casos de dengue entre homens e mulheres, para todo período estudado. Os resultados apontam a necessidade do desenvolvimento de estudos sobre a temática e reforçam o papel das instituições de ensino na questão da dengue no nosso país.

Spatial pattern detection modeling of thrips (Thrips tabaci) on onion fields

Onion (Allium cepa) is one of the most cultivated and consumed vegetables in Brazil and its importance is due to the large laborforce involved. One of the main pests that affect this crop is the Onion Thrips (Thrips tabaci), but the spatial distribution of this insect, although important, has not been considered in crop management recommendations, experimental planning or sampling procedures. Our purpose here is to consider statistical tools to detect and model spatial patterns of the occurrence of the onion thrips. In order to characterize the spatial distribution pattern of the Onion Thrips a survey was carried out to record the number of insects in each development phase on onion plant leaves, on different dates and sample locations, in four rural properties with neighboring farms under different infestation levels and planting methods. The Mantel randomization test proved to be a useful tool to test for spatial correlation which, when detected, was described by a mixed spatial Poisson model with a geostatistical random component and parameters allowing for a characterization of the spatial pattern, as well as the production of prediction maps of susceptibility to levels of infestation throughout the area.

Scavenging processes of atmospheric particulate matter: a numerical modeling of case studies

Below cloud scavenging processes have been investigated considering a numerical simulation, local atmospheric conditions and particulate matter (PM) concentrations, at different sites in Germany. The below cloud scavenging model has been coupled with bulk particulate matter counter TSI (Trust Portacounter dataset, consisting of the variability prediction of the particulate air concentrations during chosen rain events. The TSI samples and meteorological parameters were obtained during three winter Campaigns: at Deuselbach, March 1994, consisting in three different events; Sylt, April 1994 and; Freiburg, March 1995. The results show a good agreement between modeled and observed air concentrations, emphasizing the quality of the conceptual model used in the below cloud scavenging numerical modeling. The results between modeled and observed data have also presented high square Pearson coefficient correlations over 0.7 and significant, except the Freiburg Campaign event. The differences between numerical simulations and observed dataset are explained by the wind direction changes and, perhaps, the absence of advection mass terms inside the modeling. These results validate previous works based on the same conceptual model.

Enzyme kinetics, structural analysis and molecular modeling studies on a series of Schistosoma mansoni PNP inhibitors

The enzyme purine nucleoside phosphorylase from Schistosoma mansoni (SmPNP) is an attractive molecular target for the development of novel drugs against schistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease that affects about 200 million people worldwide. In the present work, enzyme kinetic studies were carried out in order to determine the potency and mechanism of inhibition of a series of SmPNP inhibitors. In addition to the biochemical investigations, crystallographic and molecular modeling studies revealed important molecular features for binding affinity towards the target enzyme, leading to the development of structure-activity relationships (SAR).

Structural and chemical basis for anticancer activity of a series of 'beta'-tubulin ligands: molecular modeling and 3D QSAR studies

An important approach to cancer therapy is the design of small molecule modulators that interfere with microtubule dynamics through their specific binding to the ²-subunit of tubulin. In the present work, comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) studies were conducted on a series of discodermolide analogs with antimitotic properties. Significant correlation coefficients were obtained (CoMFA(i), q² =0.68, r²=0.94; CoMFA(ii), q² = 0.63, r²= 0.91), indicating the good internal and external consistency of the models generated using two independent structural alignment strategies. The models were externally validated employing a test set, and the predicted values were in good agreement with the experimental results. The final QSAR models and the 3D contour maps provided important insights into the chemical and structural basis involved in the molecular recognition process of this family of discodermolide analogs, and should be useful for the design of new specific ²-tubulin modulators with potent anticancer activity.

Triagem sorológica e influência do conhecimento sobre a dengue em pacientes do ambulatório de especialidades do SUS

INTRODUÇÃO: A dengue é causa de preocupação em países como o Brasil. OBJETIVO: Verificar a soropositividade dos pacientes do ambulatório de especialidades do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) para anticorpos antidengue, relacionando os resultados com os dados sociodemográficos. METODOLOGIA: Foram respondidos 184 questionários de avaliação sociodemográfica e de conhecimento sobre a transmissão da dengue. Foi utilizado o método de imunoensaio enzimático (ELISA) para pesquisar imunoglobulina da classe M (IgM) e da classe G (IgG) contra os vírus. RESULTADOS: Quinze por cento dos pacientes apresentaram IgG contra o vírus, sem a presença de IgM. CONCLUSÃO: Os pacientes demonstraram conhecimento sobre a doença e sua prevenção, independentemente da classe econômica. A infecção assintomática deve ser avaliada, principalmente nos casos de doença febril.

Body Mass Index, Cigarette Smoking, and Alcohol Consumption and Cancers of the Oral Cavity, Pharynx, and Larynx: Modeling Odds Ratios in Pooled Case-Control Data

study-specific results, their findings should be interpreted with caution

Modeling of the Barkhausen jump in low carbon steel

This work presents a model for the magnetic Barkhausen jump in low carbon content steels. The outcomes of the model evidence that the Barkhausen jump height depends on the coercive field of the pinning site and on the mean free path of the domain wall between pinning sites. These results are used to deduce the influence of the microstructural features and of the magnetizing parameters on the amplitude and duration of the Barkhausen jumps. In particular, a theoretical expression, establishing the dependence of the Barkbausen jump height on the carbon content and grain size, is obtained. The model also reveals the dependence of the Barkhausen jump on the applied frequency and amplitude. Theoretical and experimental results are presented and compared, being in good agreement. (C) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

New Genotype of Dengue Type 3 Virus Circulating in Brazil and Colombia Showed a Close Relationship to Old Asian Viruses

Dengue type 3 genotype V viruses have been recently detected in Brazil and Colombia. In this study, we described another Brazilian isolate belonging to this genotype. Phylogenetic analysis including dengue type 3 viruses isolated worldwide showed that Brazilian and Colombian viruses were closely related to viruses isolated in Asia more than two decades ago. The characteristic evolutionary pattern of dengue type 3 virus cannot explain the close similarity of new circulating viruses with old viruses. Further studies are needed to confirm the origin of the new dengue type III genotype circulating in Brazil and Colombia.