Information Visualization to support decision making in the context of distance learning: A study with VLE TelEduc

Digital data sets constitute rich sources of information, which can be extracted and evaluated applying computational tools, for example, those ones for Information Visualization. Web-based applications, such as social network environments, forums and virtual environments for Distance Learning, are good examples for such sources. The great amount of data has direct impact on processing and analysis tasks. This paper presents the computational tool Mapper, defined and implemented to use visual representations - maps, graphics and diagrams - for supporting the decision making process by analyzing data stored in Virtual Learning Environment TelEduc-Unesp. © 2012 IEEE.

Selección de información para la toma de decisiones en el sector transporte = The choice of information for decision making in the transport sector

Incluye Bibliografía

Improved career decision-making through the use of labor market information /

Mode of access: Internet.

Designing a safety management support system using open architecture databases: the requirements of information representation in the support of managers' risk-related decision-making

This research was conducted at the Space Research and Technology Centre o the European Space Agency at Noordvijk in the Netherlands. ESA is an international organisation that brings together a range of scientists, engineers and managers from 14 European member states. The motivation for the work was to enable decision-makers, in a culturally and technologically diverse organisation, to share information for the purpose of making decisions that are well informed about the risk-related aspects of the situations they seek to address. The research examined the use of decision support system DSS) technology to facilitate decision-making of this type. This involved identifying the technology available and its application to risk management. Decision-making is a complex activity that does not lend itself to exact measurement or precise understanding at a detailed level. In view of this, a prototype DSS was developed through which to understand the practical issues to be accommodated and to evaluate alternative approaches to supporting decision-making of this type. The problem of measuring the effect upon the quality of decisions has been approached through expert evaluation of the software developed. The practical orientation of this work was informed by a review of the relevant literature in decision-making, risk management, decision support and information technology. Communication and information technology unite the major the,es of this work. This allows correlation of the interests of the research with European public policy. The principles of communication were also considered in the topic of information visualisation - this emerging technology exploits flexible modes of human computer interaction (HCI) to improve the cognition of complex data. Risk management is itself an area characterised by complexity and risk visualisation is advocated for application in this field of endeavour. The thesis provides recommendations for future work in the fields of decision=making, DSS technology and risk management.

How reporting and controlling systems can be effectively designed to support the decision-making process: The case of a Software SME

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Decision-theoretic analysis of forensic sampling criteria using Bayesian decision networks

Sampling issues represent a topic of ongoing interest to the forensic science community essentially because of their crucial role in laboratory planning and working protocols. For this purpose, forensic literature described thorough (Bayesian) probabilistic sampling approaches. These are now widely implemented in practice. They allow, for instance, to obtain probability statements that parameters of interest (e.g., the proportion of a seizure of items that present particular features, such as an illegal substance) satisfy particular criteria (e.g., a threshold or an otherwise limiting value). Currently, there are many approaches that allow one to derive probability statements relating to a population proportion, but questions on how a forensic decision maker - typically a client of a forensic examination or a scientist acting on behalf of a client - ought actually to decide about a proportion or a sample size, remained largely unexplored to date. The research presented here intends to address methodology from decision theory that may help to cope usefully with the wide range of sampling issues typically encountered in forensic science applications. The procedures explored in this paper enable scientists to address a variety of concepts such as the (net) value of sample information, the (expected) value of sample information or the (expected) decision loss. All of these aspects directly relate to questions that are regularly encountered in casework. Besides probability theory and Bayesian inference, the proposed approach requires some additional elements from decision theory that may increase the efforts needed for practical implementation. In view of this challenge, the present paper will emphasise the merits of graphical modelling concepts, such as decision trees and Bayesian decision networks. These can support forensic scientists in applying the methodology in practice. How this may be achieved is illustrated with several examples. The graphical devices invoked here also serve the purpose of supporting the discussion of the similarities, differences and complementary aspects of existing Bayesian probabilistic sampling criteria and the decision-theoretic approach proposed throughout this paper.

THE ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IN CREATING SUSTAINABILITY VALUE FOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN 2020 : a scenario planning approach

The growing importance of global sustainability issues has been causing many changes to the financial services industry. Facts such as climate change, social development and the financial crisis in 2008 have been making banks reconsider the manner that they consider environmental, social and economic factors in their decision-making process. At the same time, information technology (IT) has been transforming the financial service industry and its fast development has casted doubts on the way it should be managed within an organization. This current changing environment brings a number of uncertainties to the future that cannot be addressed using traditional forecasting techniques. This research investigates how IT can bring value to sustainability in the financial service industry in 2020. Through the use of a scenario planning technique, we analyzed how trends in the current environment (considering the relation between sustainability, financial institutions an IT) can lead to four different future scenarios. Then, we discussed how IT can improve a bank’s sustainability performance, considering the limitations of each scenario.

A study on the role of the parent in educational decision making from the perspective of parents and teachers

ADeweyan (1916) democratic theoty ofeducation called for the participation ofall citizens in deliberating important educational issues to improve overall student learning. Thus, the move to include parents in educational decision making can be considered to be rooted in democratic principles. To gain greater insight into the issue ofparent involvement in educational decision making, one elementary school was studied and a triangulization method was employed in an attempt to clarify the important issues surrolUlding the move to include parents in the governance ofschools. The three methods to gain information included surveys, interviews, and documentation ofsignificant school events and related work. All ofthe parents and teachers ofthe school were surveyed, 10 parents and 6teachers were interviewed, and related school events were recorded. The survey design was modeled on the Parent Involvement Questionnaire (PIQ) created and reported on by Chavkin and Williams (1987). The results ofthe surveys were used as a guide for the interview questions. An interview outline was developed based on Seidman's (1991) open-ended approach and Patton's (1980) standardized open-ended interview style in which parents and teachers were asked about their experiences and opinions on anmnber ofparent involvement issues. Parents and teachers in this school indicated agreater interest in becoming more aware ofeducational issues such as school budget and school discipline policies. Although the parents indicated agreater interest in school matters and the teachers indicated awillingness to include parents in school matters, both the parents and teachers in this study perceived the role ofthe parent as advisory, not decision making. It was concluded that to ensure ameaningful and functional role for parellts as tlleir p811icipatioll ill educational matters evolves, SCllools must have a clear vision ofthe primary goal ofall schools, namely, to foster and nourish democratic citizens for ademocratic society (Glickman, 1993). Furthennore, intentional practices such as Purkey's (ad) 5-P Relay approach, based on a democratic theory and practice of education, will have to be employed in order to give parents an authentic voice in educational matters and provide an avenue for parents to acquire the necessary skills and lmowledge needed to do so. As schools, school boards, and the Ministry ofEducation implement parent involvement guidelines and policies, developmental needs ofeach school need to be considered to ensure the employment ofdemocratic practices not authoritarian mandates. Parent interest and involvement, at whatever level, should be an important element in the overall move to make schools part ofthe democratic society they were meant to be.

Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness

Previous research has shown that often there is clear inertia in individual decision making---that is, a tendency for decision makers to choose a status quo option. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate two potential determinants of inertia in uncertain environments: (i) regret aversion and (ii) ambiguity-driven indecisiveness. I use a between-subjects design with varying conditions to identify the effects of these two mechanisms on choice behavior. In each condition, participants choose between two simple real gambles, one of which is the status quo option. I find that inertia is quite large and that both mechanisms are equally important.

A Bayesian Approach for Decision Making on the Identification of Genes with Different Expression Levels: An Application to Escherichia coli Bacterium Data

A common interest in gene expression data analysis is to identify from a large pool of candidate genes the genes that present significant changes in expression levels between a treatment and a control biological condition. Usually, it is done using a statistic value and a cutoff value that are used to separate the genes differentially and nondifferentially expressed. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to identify genes differentially expressed calculating sequentially credibility intervals from predictive densities which are constructed using the sampled mean treatment effect from all genes in study excluding the treatment effect of genes previously identified with statistical evidence for difference. We compare our Bayesian approach with the standard ones based on the use of the t-test and modified t-tests via a simulation study, using small sample sizes which are common in gene expression data analysis. Results obtained report evidence that the proposed approach performs better than standard ones, especially for cases with mean differences and increases in treatment variance in relation to control variance. We also apply the methodologies to a well-known publicly available data set on Escherichia coli bacterium.

Supporting decision making under uncertainty: Development of a participatory integrated model for water management in the middle Guadiana river basin.

Following the Integrated Water Resources Management approach, the European Water Framework Directive demands Member States to develop water management plans at the catchment level. Those plans have to integrate the different interests and must be developed with stakeholder participation. To face these requirements, managers need tools to assess the impacts of possible management alternatives on natural and socio-economic systems. These tools should ideally be able to address the complexity and uncertainties of the water system, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation. The objective of our research was to develop a participatory integrated assessment model, based on the combination of a crop model, an economic model and a participatory Bayesian network, with an application in the middle Guadiana sub-basin, in Spain. The methodology is intended to capture the complexity of water management problems, incorporating the relevant sectors, as well as the relevant scales involved in water management decision making. The integrated model has allowed us testing different management, market and climate change scenarios and assessing the impacts of such scenarios on the natural system (crops), on the socio-economic system (farms) and on the environment (water resources). Finally, this integrated assessment modelling process has allowed stakeholder participation, complying with the main requirements of current European water laws.

Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk

Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives-defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely-requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial ( and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.

Improving the economic decision making capability and viability of Chinese wool textile mills

The successful restructuring of Chinese industries is of immense importance not only for the continued development of China but also to the stability of the world economy. The transformation of the Chinese wool textile industry illustrates well the many problems and pressures currently facing most Chinese industries. The Chinese wool textile industry has undergone major upheaval and restructuring in its drive to modernize and take advantage of developments in world textile markets. Macro level ownership and administrative reforms are well advanced as is the uptake of new technology and equipment. However, the changing market and institutional environment also demands an increasing level of sophistication in mill management decisions including product selection, input procurement, product pricing, investment appraisal, cost analysis and proactive identification of new market and growth opportunities. This paper outlines a series of analyses that have been integrated into a decision-making model designed to assist mill managers with these decisions. Features of the model include a whole-of-mill approach, a design based on existing mill structures and information systems, and the capacity for the model to be tailored to individual mills. All of these features facilitate the adoption of the model by time and resource constrained managers seeking to maintain the viability of their enterprises in the face of extremely dynamic market conditions.