Neural and psychological maturation of decision-making in adolescence and young adulthood

We examined the maturation of decision-making from early adolescence to mid-adulthood using fMRI of a variant of the Iowa gambling task. We have previously shown that performance in this task relies on sensitivity to accumulating negative outcomes in ventromedial PFC and dorsolateral PFC. Here, we further formalize outcome evaluation (as driven by prediction errors [PE], using a reinforcement learning model) and examine its development. Task performance improved significantly during adolescence, stabilizing in adulthood. Performance relied on greater impact of negative compared with positive PEs, the relative impact of which matured from adolescence into adulthood. Adolescents also showed increased exploratory behavior, expressed as a propensity to shift responding between options independently of outcome quality, whereas adults showed no systematic shifting patterns. The correlation between PE representation and improved performance strengthened with age for activation in ventral and dorsal PFC, ventral striatum, and temporal and parietal cortices. There was a medial-lateral distinction in the prefrontal substrates of effective PE utilization between adults and adolescents: Increased utilization of negative PEs, a hallmark of successful performance in the task, was associated with increased activation in ventromedial PFC in adults, but decreased activation in ventrolateral PFC and striatum in adolescents. These results suggest that adults and adolescents engage qualitatively distinct neural and psychological processes during decision-making, the development of which is not exclusively dependent on reward-processing maturation.

Expected value, reward outcome, and temporal difference error representations in a probabilistic decision task

In probabilistic decision tasks, an expected value (EV) of a choice is calculated, and after the choice has been made, this can be updated based on a temporal difference (TD) prediction error between the EV and the reward magnitude (RM) obtained. The EV is measured as the probability of obtaining a reward x RM. To understand the contribution of different brain areas to these decision-making processes, functional magnetic resonance imaging activations related to EV versus RM (or outcome) were measured in a probabilistic decision task. Activations in the medial orbitofrontal cortex were correlated with both RM and with EV and confirmed in a conjunction analysis to extend toward the pregenual cingulate cortex. From these representations, TD reward prediction errors could be produced. Activations in areas that receive from the orbitofrontal cortex including the ventral striatum, midbrain, and inferior frontal gyrus were correlated with the TD error. Activations in the anterior insula were correlated negatively with EV, occurring when low reward outcomes were expected, and also with the uncertainty of the reward, implicating this region in basic and crucial decision-making parameters, low expected outcomes, and uncertainty.

Optimised dose titration for Duodopatreatment based on simulation experiments– implementation in a decision supportsystem

The aim of this work was to design a set of rules for levodopa infusion dose adjustment in Parkinson’s disease based on a simulation experiments. Using this simulator, optimal infusions dose in different conditions were calculated. There are seven conditions (-3 to +3)appearing in a rating scale for Parkinson’s disease patients. By finding mean of the differences between conditions and optimal dose, two sets of rules were designed. The set of rules was optimized by several testing. Usefulness for optimizing the titration procedure of new infusion patients based on rule-based reasoning was investigated. Results show that both of the number of the steps and the errors for finding optimal dose was shorten by new rules. At last, the dose predicted with new rules well on each single occasion of majority of patients in simulation experiments.

The combination of neural estimates in prediction and decision problems

In this dissertation, different ways of combining neural predictive models or neural-based forecasts are discussed. The proposed approaches consider mostly Gaussian radial basis function networks, which can be efficiently identified and estimated through recursive/adaptive methods. Two different ways of combining are explored to get a final estimate – model mixing and model synthesis –, with the aim of obtaining improvements both in terms of efficiency and effectiveness. In the context of model mixing, the usual framework for linearly combining estimates from different models is extended, to deal with the case where the forecast errors from those models are correlated. In the context of model synthesis, and to address the problems raised by heavily nonstationary time series, we propose hybrid dynamic models for more advanced time series forecasting, composed of a dynamic trend regressive model (or, even, a dynamic harmonic regressive model), and a Gaussian radial basis function network. Additionally, using the model mixing procedure, two approaches for decision-making from forecasting models are discussed and compared: either inferring decisions from combined predictive estimates, or combining prescriptive solutions derived from different forecasting models. Finally, the application of some of the models and methods proposed previously is illustrated with two case studies, based on time series from finance and from tourism.

Using transcranial magnetic stimulation to probe decision-making and memory

Decision-making and memory are fundamental processes for successful human behaviour. For eye movements, the frontal eye fields (FEF), the supplementary eye fields (SEF), the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), the ventrolateral frontal cortex and the anterior cingulum are important for these cognitive processes. The online approach of transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), i.e., the application of magnetic pulses during planning and performance of saccades, allows interfering specifically with information processing of the stimulated region at a very specific time interval (chronometry of cortical processing). The paper presents studies, which showed the different roles of the FEF and DLPFC in antisaccade control. The critical time interval of DLPFC control seems to be before target onset since TMS significantly increased the percentage of antisaccade errors at that time interval. The FEF seems to be important for the triggering of correct antisaccades. Bilateral stimulation of the DLPFC could demonstrate parallel information-processing transfer in spatial working memory during memory-guided saccades.

Errors in the administration of medication in inpatient hospitals: A systematic review of the research literature on commercial computerized physician order entry systems

Errors in the administration of medication represent a significant loss of medical resources and pose life altering or life threatening risks to patients. This paper considered the question, what impact do Computerized Physician Order Entry (CPOE) systems have on medication errors in the hospital inpatient environment? Previous reviews have examined evidence of the impact of CPOE on medication errors, but have come to ambiguous conclusions as to the impact of CPOE and decision support systems (DSS). Forty-three papers were identified. Thirty-one demonstrated a significant reduction in prescribing error rates for all or some drug types; decreases in minor errors were most often reported. Several studies reported increases in the rate of duplicate orders and failures to remove contraindicated drugs, often attributed to inappropriate design or to an inability to operate the system properly. The evidence on the effectiveness of CPOE to reduce errors in medication administration is compelling though it is limited by modest study sample sizes and designs. ^

Economics of Policy Errors and Learning in the European Union. Bruges European Economic Policy (BEEP) Briefing 31/2013

Policy errors occur regularly in EU Member States. Learning from these errors can be beneficial. This paper explains how the European Union can facilitate this learning. At present, much attention is given to “best practices”. But learning from mistakes is also valuable. The paper develops the concept of “avoidable error” and examines evidence from infringement proceedings and special reports of the European Court of Auditors which indicate that Member States do indeed commit avoidable errors. The paper considers how Member States may take measures not to repeat avoidable or predictable errors and makes appropriate proposals.

The thinking doctor: clinical decision making in contemporary medicine

Diagnostic errors are responsible for a significant number of adverse events. Logical reasoning and good decision-making skills are key factors in reducing such errors, but little emphasis has traditionally been placed on how these thought processes occur, and how errors could be minimised. In this article, we explore key cognitive ideas that underpin clinical decision making and suggest that by employing some simple strategies, physicians might be better able to understand how they make decisions and how the process might be optimised.

Looking a Gift Horse in the Mouth: Decision-Making about Acquisitions at Community Historical Organizations

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Neural representations of social and non-social uncertainty in human decision making

The social landscape is filled with an intricate web of species-specific desired objects and course of actions. Humans are highly social animals and, as they navigate this landscape, they need to produce adapted decision-making behaviour. Traditionally social and non-social neural mechanisms affecting choice have been investigated using different approaches. Recently, in an effort to unite these findings, two main theories have been proposed to explain how the brain might encode social and non-social motivational decision-making: the extended common currency and the social valuation specific schema (Ruff & Fehr 2014). One way to test these theories is to directly compare neural activity related to social and non-social decision outcomes within the same experimental setting. Here we address this issue by focusing on the neural substrates of social and non-social forms of uncertainty. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) we directly compared the neural representations of reward and risk prediction and errors (RePE and RiPE) in social and non- social situations using gambling games. We used a trust betting game to vary uncertainty along a social dimension (trustworthiness), and a card game (Preuschoff et al. 2006) to vary uncertainty along a non-social dimension (pure risk). The trust game was designed to maintain the same structure of the card game. In a first study, we exposed a divide between subcortical and cortical regions when comparing the way these regions process social and non-social forms of uncertainty during outcome anticipation. Activity in subcortical regions reflected social and non-social RePE, while activity in cortical regions correlated with social RePE and non-social RiPE. The second study focused on outcome delivery and integrated the concept of RiPE in non-social settings with that of fairness and monetary utility maximisation in social settings. In particular these results corroborate recent models of anterior insula function (Singer et al. 2009; Seth 2013), and expose a possible neural mechanism that weights fairness and uncertainty but not monetary utility. The third study focused on functionally defined regions of the early visual cortex (V1) showing how activity in these areas, traditionally considered only visual, might reflect motivational prediction errors in addition to known perceptual prediction mechanisms (den Ouden et al 2012). On the whole, while our results do not support unilaterally one or the other theory modeling the underlying neural dynamics of social and non-social forms of decision making, they provide a working framework where both general mechanisms might coexist.

The effect of a Computerised Decision Support System (CDSS) on compliance with the prehospital assessment process: results of an interrupted time-series study

BACKGROUND: Errors in the decision-making process are probably the main threat to patient safety in the prehospital setting. The reason can be the change of focus in prehospital care from the traditional "scoop and run" practice to a more complex assessment and this new focus imposes real demands on clinical judgment. The use of Clinical Guidelines (CG) is a common strategy for cognitively supporting the prehospital providers. However, there are studies that suggest that the compliance with CG in some cases is low in the prehospital setting. One possible way to increase compliance with guidelines could be to introduce guidelines in a Computerized Decision Support System (CDSS). There is limited evidence relating to the effect of CDSS in a prehospital setting. The present study aimed to evaluate the effect of CDSS on compliance with the basic assessment process described in the prehospital CG and the effect of On Scene Time (OST). METHODS: In this time-series study, data from prehospital medical records were collected on a weekly basis during the study period. Medical records were rated with the guidance of a rating protocol and data on OST were collected. The difference between baseline and the intervention period was assessed by a segmented regression. RESULTS: In this study, 371 patients were included. Compliance with the assessment process described in the prehospital CG was stable during the baseline period. Following the introduction of the CDSS, compliance rose significantly. The post-intervention slope was stable. The CDSS had no significant effect on OST. CONCLUSIONS: The use of CDSS in prehospital care has the ability to increase compliance with the assessment process of patients with a medical emergency. This study was unable to demonstrate any effects of OST.

Prevalence of refractive errors and ocular disorders in preschool and school children of Ibiporã - PR, Brazil (1989 to 1996)

Purpose: To establish the prevalence of refractive errors and ocular disorders in preschool and schoolchildren of Ibiporã, Brazil. Methods: A survey of 6 to 12-year-old children from public and private elementary schools was carried out in Ibiporã between 1989 and 1996. Visual acuity measurements were performed by trained teachers using Snellen's chart. Children with visual acuity <0.7 in at least one eye were referred to a complete ophthalmologic examination. Results: 35,936 visual acuity measurements were performed in 13,471 children. 1.966 children (14.59%) were referred to an ophthalmologic examination. Amblyopia was diagnosed in 237 children (1.76%), whereas strabismus was observed in 114 cases (0.84%). Cataract (n=17) (0.12%), chorioretinitis (n=38) (0.28%) and eyelid ptosis (n=6) (0.04%) were also diagnosed. Among the 614 (4.55%) children who were found to have refractive errors, 284 (46.25%) had hyperopia (hyperopia or hyperopic astigmatism), 206 (33.55%) had myopia (myopia or myopic astigmatism) and 124 (20.19%) showed mixed astigmatism. Conclusions: The study determined the local prevalence of amblyopia, refractive errors and eye disorders among preschool and schoolchildren.

Decision theory applied to image quality control in radiology

Background: The present work aims at the application of the decision theory to radiological image quality control ( QC) in diagnostic routine. The main problem addressed in the framework of decision theory is to accept or reject a film lot of a radiology service. The probability of each decision of a determined set of variables was obtained from the selected films. Methods: Based on a radiology service routine a decision probability function was determined for each considered group of combination characteristics. These characteristics were related to the film quality control. These parameters were also framed in a set of 8 possibilities, resulting in 256 possible decision rules. In order to determine a general utility application function to access the decision risk, we have used a simple unique parameter called r. The payoffs chosen were: diagnostic's result (correct/incorrect), cost (high/low), and patient satisfaction (yes/no) resulting in eight possible combinations. Results: Depending on the value of r, more or less risk will occur related to the decision-making. The utility function was evaluated in order to determine the probability of a decision. The decision was made with patients or administrators' opinions from a radiology service center. Conclusion: The model is a formal quantitative approach to make a decision related to the medical imaging quality, providing an instrument to discriminate what is really necessary to accept or reject a film or a film lot. The method presented herein can help to access the risk level of an incorrect radiological diagnosis decision.

DECISION TREE CLASSIFIERS FOR STAR/GALAXY SEPARATION

We study the star/galaxy classification efficiency of 13 different decision tree algorithms applied to photometric objects in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release Seven (SDSS-DR7). Each algorithm is defined by a set of parameters which, when varied, produce different final classification trees. We extensively explore the parameter space of each algorithm, using the set of 884,126 SDSS objects with spectroscopic data as the training set. The efficiency of star-galaxy separation is measured using the completeness function. We find that the Functional Tree algorithm (FT) yields the best results as measured by the mean completeness in two magnitude intervals: 14 <= r <= 21 (85.2%) and r >= 19 (82.1%). We compare the performance of the tree generated with the optimal FT configuration to the classifications provided by the SDSS parametric classifier, 2DPHOT, and Ball et al. We find that our FT classifier is comparable to or better in completeness over the full magnitude range 15 <= r <= 21, with much lower contamination than all but the Ball et al. classifier. At the faintest magnitudes (r > 19), our classifier is the only one that maintains high completeness (> 80%) while simultaneously achieving low contamination (similar to 2.5%). We also examine the SDSS parametric classifier (psfMag - modelMag) to see if the dividing line between stars and galaxies can be adjusted to improve the classifier. We find that currently stars in close pairs are often misclassified as galaxies, and suggest a new cut to improve the classifier. Finally, we apply our FT classifier to separate stars from galaxies in the full set of 69,545,326 SDSS photometric objects in the magnitude range 14 <= r <= 21.