FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER HISTORICAL AND PREDICTED LAND USE CHANGE USING CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC MODELING

Current procedures for flood risk estimation assume flood distributions are stationary over time, meaning annual maximum flood (AMF) series are not affected by climatic variation, land use/land cover (LULC) change, or management practices. Thus, changes in LULC and climate are generally not accounted for in policy and design related to flood risk/control, and historical flood events are deemed representative of future flood risk. These assumptions need to be re-evaluated, however, as climate change and anthropogenic activities have been observed to have large impacts on flood risk in many areas. In particular, understanding the effects of LULC change is essential to the study and understanding of global environmental change and the consequent hydrologic responses. The research presented herein provides possible causation for observed nonstationarity in AMF series with respect to changes in LULC, as well as a means to assess the degree to which future LULC change will impact flood risk. Four watersheds in the Midwest, Northeastern, and Central United States were studied to determine flood risk associated with historical and future projected LULC change. Historical single framed aerial images dating back to the mid-1950s were used along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing models (SPRING and ERDAS) to create historical land use maps. The Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Use Change (FORE-SCE) model was applied to generate future LULC maps annually from 2006 to 2100 for the conterminous U.S. based on the four IPCC-SRES future emission scenario conditions. These land use maps were input into previously calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models for two case study watersheds. In order to isolate effects of LULC change, the only variable parameter was the Runoff Curve Number associated with the land use layer. All simulations were run with daily climate data from 1978-1999, consistent with the 'base' model which employed the 1992 NLCD to represent 'current' conditions. Output daily maximum flows were converted to instantaneous AMF series and were subsequently modeled using a Log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution to evaluate flood risk. Analysis of the progression of LULC change over the historic period and associated SWAT outputs revealed that AMF magnitudes tend to increase over time in response to increasing degrees of urbanization. This is consistent with positive trends in the AMF series identified in previous studies, although there are difficulties identifying correlations between LULC change and identified change points due to large time gaps in the generated historical LULC maps, mainly caused by unavailability of sufficient quality historic aerial imagery. Similarly, increases in the mean and median AMF magnitude were observed in response to future LULC change projections, with the tails of the distributions remaining reasonably constant. FORE-SCE scenario A2 was found to have the most dramatic impact on AMF series, consistent with more extreme projections of population growth, demands for growing energy sources, agricultural land, and urban expansion, while AMF outputs based on scenario B2 showed little changes for the future as the focus is on environmental conservation and regional solutions to environmental issues.

Decreased recent thymus emigrant number in rheumatoid factor-negative polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis

Objectives To determine TCR excision circle (TREC) levels, a marker of recent thymic emigrants, in the peripheral lymphocyte pool of rheumatoid factor-negative (RF circle divide) polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) children. Materials and methods We studied TREC levels in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) in 30 RF circle divide polyarticular JIA children with active disease and in 30 age- and gender-matched healthy controls. Signal-joint TREC concentration was determined by real-time quantitative-PCR as the number of TREC copies/mu g PBMC DNA gauged by a standard curve with known number of TREC-containing plasmids. Results TREC levels in PBMC were significantly lower in JIA (4.90 +/- 3.86 x 10(4) TRECs/mu g DNA) as compared to controls (10.45 +/- 8.45 x 10(4) TRECs/mu g DNA, p=0.001). There was an inverse correlation between age and TREC levels in healthy children (r=-0.438, p=0.016) but not in JIA. No clinical association was observed between TREC levels and disease activity and use of oral steroids and methotrexate. Conclusions The finding of decreased PBMC TREC levels in RF circle divide polyarticular JIA children is consistent with a low proportion of recent thymus emigrants. This may interfere with the equilibrium between populations of polyclonal and naive T cells versus oligoclonal memory auto-reactive T cells and, therefore, may hinder the maintenance of immune tolerance in this disease.

Right adolescent idiopathic thoracic curve (Lenke 1 A and B): does cost of instrumentation and implant density improve radiographic and cosmetic parameters?

In adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) there has been a shift towards increasing the number of implants and pedicle screws, which has not been proven to improve cosmetic correction. To evaluate if increasing cost of instrumentation correlates with cosmetic correction using clinical photographs. 58 Lenke 1A and B cases from a multicenter AIS database with at least 3 months follow-up of clinical photographs were used for analysis. Cosmetic parameters on PA and forward bending photographs included angular measurements of trunk shift, shoulder balance, rib hump, and ratio measurements of waist line asymmetry. Pre-op and follow-up X-rays were measured for coronal and sagittal deformity parameters. Cost density was calculated by dividing the total cost of instrumentation by the number of vertebrae being fused. Linear regression and spearman`s correlation were used to correlate cost density to X-ray and photo outcomes. Three independent observers verified radiographic and cosmetic parameters for inter/interobserver variability analysis. Average pre-op Cobb angle and instrumented correction were 54A degrees (SD 12.5) and 59% (SD 25) respectively. The average number of vertebrae fused was 10 (SD 1.9). The total cost of spinal instrumentation ranged from $6,769 to $21,274 (Mean $12,662, SD $3,858). There was a weak positive and statistically significant correlation between Cobb angle correction and cost density (r = 0.33, p = 0.01), and no correlation between Cobb angle correction of the uninstrumented lumbar spine and cost density (r = 0.15, p = 0.26). There was no significant correlation between all sagittal X-ray measurements or any of the photo parameters and cost density. There was good to excellent inter/intraobserver variability of all photographic parameters based on the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC 0.74-0.98). Our method used to measure cosmesis had good to excellent inter/intraobserver variability, and may be an effective tool to objectively assess cosmesis from photographs. Since increasing cost density only improves mildly the Cobb angle correction of the main thoracic curve and not the correction of the uninstrumented spine or any of the cosmetic parameters, one should consider the cost of increasing implant density in Lenke 1A and B curves. In the area of rationalization of health care expenses, this study demonstrates that increasing the number of implants does not improve any relevant cosmetic or radiographic outcomes.

Motor development curve from 0 to 12 months in infants born preterm

Aim: To trace a reference curve for motor development from birth up to 12 months of corrected chronological age in infants born preterm and low birth weight. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study with a sample of 308 preterm infants (53% boys) weighing < 2500 g at birth. The Alberta Infant Motor Scale (AIMS) was used for motor development assessment. Results: Comparing the motor performance of preterm infants with infants from a standardized sample on the AIMS, it was found that, except for the age group of the newborn, preterm infants showed lower motor development scores in comparison with the AIMS normative sample in all age groups between 1 and 12 months. The curve of motor development showed a continuous increase in the number of motor skills of preterm infants during their first 12 months of age. However, the average of motor acquisitions of preterm infants showed a nonlinear pattern with a standard indicator of stabilization between 8 and 10 months of age. Conclusion: Preterm infants, 1-12 months of age, showed motor development AIMS scores lower than the standards established in the normative sample. The findings may contribute as norm-reference for assessing the motor development of preterm infants in follow-up programmes in developing countries.

Evaluation of the Electric Vehicle Impact in the Power Demand Curve in a Smart Grid Environment

Smart grids with an intensive penetration of distributed energy resources will play an important role in future power system scenarios. The intermittent nature of renewable energy sources brings new challenges, requiring an efficient management of those sources. Additional storage resources can be beneficially used to address this problem; the massive use of electric vehicles, particularly of vehicle-to-grid (usually referred as gridable vehicles or V2G), becomes a very relevant issue. This paper addresses the impact of Electric Vehicles (EVs) in system operation costs and in power demand curve for a distribution network with large penetration of Distributed Generation (DG) units. An efficient management methodology for EVs charging and discharging is proposed, considering a multi-objective optimization problem. The main goals of the proposed methodology are: to minimize the system operation costs and to minimize the difference between the minimum and maximum system demand (leveling the power demand curve). The proposed methodology perform the day-ahead scheduling of distributed energy resources in a distribution network with high penetration of DG and a large number of electric vehicles. It is used a 32-bus distribution network in the case study section considering different scenarios of EVs penetration to analyze their impact in the network and in the other energy resources management.

Inflation forecasts using the tips yield curve

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Indicators for the total number of melanocytic naevi : an adjunct for screening campaigns. Observational study on 292 patients.

BACKGROUND: The presence of multiple melanocytic naevi is a strong risk factor for melanoma. Use of the whole body naevus count to identify at-risk patients is impractical. OBJECTIVES: To (i) identify a valid anatomical predictor of total naevus count; (ii) determine the number of naevi that most accurately predict total naevus count above 25, 50 and 100; and (iii) evaluate determinants of multiple melanocytic naevi and atypical naevi. METHODS: Clinical data from 292 consecutive Spanish patients consulting for skin lesions requiring debriding were collected throughout 2009 and 2010. Correlations between site-specific and whole body naevus counts were analysed. Cut-offs to predict total naevus counts were determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: The studied population was young (median age 31 years, interquartile range 28-43). The naevus count on the right arm correlated best with the total nevus count (R(2) 0·80 for men, 0·86 for women). Presence of at least five naevi on the right arm was the strongest determinant of a total naevus count above 50 [odds ratio (OR) 34·4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 13·9-85·0] and of having at least one atypical naevus (OR 5·7, 95% CI 2·4-13·5). Cut-off values of 6, 8 and 11 naevi on the right arm best predicted total naevus count above 25, 50 and 100, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the arm as a practical and reliable site to estimate the total naevus count when screening or phenotyping large populations. Threshold values for the number of naevi on the arm are proposed to help identify patients for melanoma screening.

Reconsideration of dimensions and curve fitting practice in economics ellaborating on Georgescu-Roegen’s economic methodology

This paper is to examine the proper use of dimensions and curve fitting practices elaborating on Georgescu-Roegen’s economic methodology in relation to the three main concerns of his epistemological orientation. Section 2 introduces two critical issues in relation to dimensions and curve fitting practices in economics in view of Georgescu-Roegen’s economic methodology. Section 3 deals with the logarithmic function (ln z) and shows that z must be a dimensionless pure number, otherwise it is nonsensical. Several unfortunate examples of this analytical error are presented including macroeconomic data analysis conducted by a representative figure in this field. Section 4 deals with the standard Cobb-Douglas function. It is shown that the operational meaning cannot be obtained for capital or labor within the Cobb-Douglas function. Section 4 also deals with economists "curve fitting fetishism". Section 5 concludes thispaper with several epistemological issues in relation to dimensions and curve fitting practices in economics.

Modelling the cardiovascular system for automatic interpretation of the blood pressure curve

A four compartment model of the cardiovascular system is developed. To allow for easy interpretation and to minimise the number of parameters, an effort was made to keep the model as simple as possible. A sensitivity analysis is first carried out to determine which are the most important model parameters to characterise the blood pressure signal. A four stage process is then described which accurately determines all parameter values. This process is applied to data from three patients and good agreement is shown in all cases.

Semiquantitative RT-PCR measurement of gene expression in rat tissues including a correction for varying cell size and number

Background: Current methodology of gene expression analysis limits the possibilities of comparison between cells/tissues of organs in which cell size and/or number changes as a consequence of the study (e.g. starvation). A method relating the abundance of specific mRNA copies per cell may allow direct comparison or different organs and/or changing physiological conditions. Methods: With a number of selected genes, we analysed the relationship of the number of bases and the fluorescence recorded at a present level using cDNA standards. A lineal relationship was found between the final number of bases and the length of the transcript. The constants of this equation and those of the relationship between fluorescence and number of bases in cDNA were determined and a general equation linking the length of the transcript and the initial number of copies of mRNA was deduced for a given pre-established fluorescence setting. This allowed the calculation of the concentration of the corresponding mRNAs per g of tissue. The inclusion of tissue RNA and the DNA content per cell, allowed the calculation of the mRNA copies per cell. Results: The application of this procedure to six genes: Arbp, cyclophilin, ChREBP, T4 deiodinase 2, acetyl-CoA carboxylase 1 and IRS-1, in liver and retroperitoneal adipose tissue of food-restricted rats allowed precise measures of their changes irrespective of the shrinking of the tissue, the loss of cells or changes in cell size, factors that deeply complicate the comparison between changing tissue conditions. The percentage results obtained with the present methods were essentially the same obtained with the delta-delta procedure and with individual cDNA standard curve quantitative RT-PCR estimation. Conclusion: The method presented allows the comparison (i.e. as copies of mRNA per cell) between different genes and tissues, establishing the degree of abundance of the different molecular species tested.

Complexation to macromolecules with a large number of sites

This paper presents an approach based on the saddle-point approximation to study the equilibrium interactions between small molecules and macromolecules with a large number of sites. For this case, the application of the Darwin–Fowler method results in very simple expressions for the stoichiometric equilibrium constants and their corresponding free energies in terms of integrals of the binding curve plus a correction term which depends on the first derivatives of the binding curve in the points corresponding to an integer value of the mean occupation number. These expressions are simplified when the number of sites tends to infinity, providing an interpretation of the binding curve in terms of the stoichiometric stability constants. The formalism presented is applied to some simple complexation models, obtaining good values for the free energies involved. When heterogeneous complexation is assumed, simple expressions are obtained to relate the macroscopic description of the binding, given by the stoichiomeric constants, with the microscopic description in terms of the intrinsic stability constants or the affinity spectrum. © 1999 American Institute of Physics.

Study of the lactation curve in dairy cattle on farms in Central Mexico

Accurate knowledge of lactation curves has an important relevance to management and research of dairy production systems. A number of equations have been proposed to describe the lactation curve, the most widely applied being the gamma equation. The objective of this work was to compare and evaluate candidate functions for their predictive ability in describing lactation curves from central Mexican dairy cows reared under 2 contrasting management systems. Five equations were considered: Gaines ( exponential decay), Wood ( gamma equation), Rook ( Michaelis-Menten x exponential), and 2 more mechanistic ones (Dijkstra and Pollott). A database consisting of 701 and 1283 records of cows in small-scale and intensive systems, respectively, was used in the analysis. Before analysis, the database was divided into 6 groups representing first, second, and third and higher parity cows in both systems. In all cases except second and above parity cows in small-scale systems, all models improved on the Gaines equation. The Wood equation explained much of the variation, but its parameters do not have direct biological interpretation. Although the Rook equation fitted the data well, some of the parameter estimates were not significant. The Dijkstra equation consistently gave better predictions, and its parameters were usually statistically significant and lend themselves to physiological interpretation. As such, the differences between systems and parity could be explained due to variations in theoretical initial milk production at parturition, specific rates of secretory cell proliferation and death, and rate of decay, all of which are parameters in the model. The Pollott equation, although containing the most biology, was found to be over-parameterized and resulted in nonsignificant parameter estimates. For central Mexican dairy cows, the Dijkstra equation was the best option to use in describing the lactation curve.

Chylomicron particle size and number, factor VII activation and dietary monounsaturated fatty acids

This study evaluated the effects of substituting dietary saturated fatty acids (SFAs) with monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFAs) on postprandial chylomicron (triacylglycerol (TAG), apolipoprotein B-48 (apo B-48) and retinyl ester (RE)), chylomicron particle size and factor VII (FVII) response when subjects were given a standard meal. In a controlled sequential design, 51 healthy young subjects followed an SFA-rich diet (Reference diet) for 8 weeks after which half of the subjects followed a moderate MUFA diet (n = 25) and half followed a high MUFA diet (n = 26) for 16 weeks. Fasting lipoprotein and lipid measurements were evaluated at baseline and at 8-week intervals during the Reference and MUFA diets. In 25 of the subjects (n = 12 moderate MUFA, n = 13 high MUFA), postprandial responses to a standard test meal containing RE and 13 C-tripalmitin were investigated at the end of the Reference and the MUFA diet periods. Although there were no differences in the postprandial lipid markers (TAG, RE, C-13-TAG) on the two diets, the postprandial apo B-48 response (incremental area under the curve (IAUC) was reduced by 21% on the moderate MUFA diet (NS) and by 54% on the high MUFA diet (P < 0.01). The postprandial peak concentrations of apo B-48 were reduced by 33% on the moderate MUFA diet (P < 0.01) and 48% on the high MUFA diet (P < 0.001). Fasting values for factor VII activity (FVIIc), activated factor VII (FVIIa) or factor VII antigen (FVIIag) did not differ significantly when subjects were transferred from Reference to MUFA diets. However, the postprandial increases in coagulation FVII activity (FVIIc) were 18% lower and of activated FVII (FVIIa) were 17% lower on the moderate MUFA diet (NS). Postprandial increases in FVIIc and FVIIa were 50% (P < 0.05) and 29% (P < 0.07) lower on the high MUFA diet and the area under the postprandial FVIIc response curve (AUC) was also lower on the high MUFA diet (P < 0.05). Significantly higher ratios of RE:apo B-48 (P < 0.001) and 13 C-palmitic acid:apo B-48 (P < 0.01) during both MUFA diets suggest that the CMs formed carry larger amounts of dietary lipids per particle, reflecting an adaptation to form larger lipid droplets in the enterocyte when increased amounts of dietary MUFAs are fed. Smaller numbers of larger chylomicrons may explain attenuated activation of factor VII during the postprandial state when the background diet is rich in MUFA. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Asymmetric output gap effects in Phillips Curve and mark-up pricing models: evidence for the US and the UK

A number of studies have found an asymmetric response of consumer price index inflation to the output gap in the US in simple Phillips curve models. We consider whether there are similar asymmetries in mark-up pricing models, that is, whether the mark-up over producers' costs also depends upon the sign of the (adjusted) output gap. The robustness of our findings to the price series is assessed, and also whether price-output responses in the UK are asymmetric.

Computing the Cassels–Tate pairing on the 3-Selmer group of an elliptic curve

We extend the method of Cassels for computing the Cassels-Tate pairing on the 2-Selmer group of an elliptic curve, to the case of 3-Selmer groups. This requires significant modifications to both the local and global parts of the calculation. Our method is practical in sufficiently small examples, and can be used to improve the upper bound for the rank of an elliptic curve obtained by 3-descent.