Sensitivity analysis of vehicle design attributes that affect vehicle response in critical accident situations - part II: technical report. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

The conceptualisation, sensitivity and measurement of holding costs and other selected elements impacting housing affordability (Literature review and research methodology for confirmation of PhD candidature)

It is widely held that strong relationships exist between housing, economic status, and well being. This is exemplified by widespread housing stock surpluses in many countries which threaten to destabilise numerous aspects related to individuals and community. However, the position of housing demand and supply is not consistent. The Australian position provides a distinct contrast whereby seemingly inexorable housing demand generally remains a critical issue affecting the socio-economic landscape. Underpinned by high levels of immigration, and further buoyed by sustained historically low interest rates, increasing income levels, and increased government assistance for first home buyers, this strong housing demand ensures elements related to housing affordability continue to gain prominence. A significant, but less visible factor impacting housing affordability – particularly new housing development – relates to holding costs. These costs are in many ways “hidden” and cannot always be easily identified. Although it is only one contributor, the nature and extent of its impact requires elucidation. In its simplest form, it commences with a calculation of the interest or opportunity cost of land holding. However, there is significantly more complexity for major new developments - particularly greenfield property development. Preliminary analysis conducted by the author suggests that even small shifts in primary factors impacting holding costs can appreciably affect housing affordability – and notably, to a greater extent than commonly held. Even so, their importance and perceived high level impact can be gauged from the unprecedented level of attention policy makers have given them over recent years. This may be evidenced by the embedding of specific strategies to address burgeoning holding costs (and particularly those cost savings associated with streamlining regulatory assessment) within statutory instruments such as the Queensland Housing Affordability Strategy, and the South East Queensland Regional Plan. However, several key issues require investigation. Firstly, the computation and methodology behind the calculation of holding costs varies widely. In fact, it is not only variable, but in some instances completely ignored. Secondly, some ambiguity exists in terms of the inclusion of various elements of holding costs, thereby affecting the assessment of their relative contribution. Perhaps this may in part be explained by their nature: such costs are not always immediately apparent. Some forms of holding costs are not as visible as the more tangible cost items associated with greenfield development such as regulatory fees, government taxes, acquisition costs, selling fees, commissions and others. Holding costs are also more difficult to evaluate since for the most part they must be ultimately assessed over time in an ever-changing environment, based on their strong relationship with opportunity cost which is in turn dependant, inter alia, upon prevailing inflation and / or interest rates. By extending research in the general area of housing affordability, this thesis seeks to provide a more detailed investigation of those elements related to holding costs, and in so doing determine the size of their impact specifically on the end user. This will involve the development of soundly based economic and econometric models which seek to clarify the componentry impacts of holding costs. Ultimately, there are significant policy implications in relation to the framework used in Australian jurisdictions that promote, retain, or otherwise maximise, the opportunities for affordable housing.

Shear-critical impact response of biaxially loaded reinforced concrete circular columns

A study on the vulnerability of biaxially loaded reinforced concrete (RC) circular columns in multi-story buildings under low- to medium-velocity impacts at shear-critical locations is presented. The study is based on a previously validated nonlinear explicit dynamic finite element (FE) modeling technique developed by the authors. The impact is simulated using force pulses generated from full-scale vehicle impact tests abundantly found in the literature with a view to quantifying the sensitivity of the design parameters of the RC columns under the typical impacts that are representative of the general vehicle population. The design parameters considered include the diameter and height of the column, the vertical steel ratio, the concrete grade, and the confinement effects. From the results of the simulations, empirical equations to quantify the critical impulses for the simplified design of the short, circular RC columns under the risk of shear-critical impacts are developed.

Educational interventions for preventing vascular catheter bloodstream infections in critical care: Evidence map, systematic review and economic evaluation

Background Bloodstream infections resulting from intravascular catheters (catheter-BSI) in critical care increase patients' length of stay, morbidity and mortality, and the management of these infections and their complications has been estimated to cost the NHS annually £19.1–36.2M. Catheter-BSI are thought to be largely preventable using educational interventions, but guidance as to which types of intervention might be most clinically effective is lacking. Objective To assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of educational interventions for preventing catheter-BSI in critical care units in England. Data sources Sixteen electronic bibliographic databases – including MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), EMBASE and The Cochrane Library databases – were searched from database inception to February 2011, with searches updated in March 2012. Bibliographies of systematic reviews and related papers were screened and experts contacted to identify any additional references. Review methods References were screened independently by two reviewers using a priori selection criteria. A descriptive map was created to summarise the characteristics of relevant studies. Further selection criteria developed in consultation with the project Advisory Group were used to prioritise a subset of studies relevant to NHS practice and policy for systematic review. A decision-analytic economic model was developed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of educational interventions for preventing catheter-BSI. Results Seventy-four studies were included in the descriptive map, of which 24 were prioritised for systematic review. Studies have predominantly been conducted in the USA, using single-cohort before-and-after study designs. Diverse types of educational intervention appear effective at reducing the incidence density of catheter-BSI (risk ratios statistically significantly < 1.0), but single lectures were not effective. The economic model showed that implementing an educational intervention in critical care units in England would be cost-effective and potentially cost-saving, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios under worst-case sensitivity analyses of < £5000/quality-adjusted life-year. Limitations Low-quality primary studies cannot definitively prove that the planned interventions were responsible for observed changes in catheter-BSI incidence. Poor reporting gave unclear estimates of risk of bias. Some model parameters were sourced from other locations owing to a lack of UK data. Conclusions Our results suggest that it would be cost-effective and may be cost-saving for the NHS to implement educational interventions in critical care units. However, more robust primary studies are needed to exclude the possible influence of secular trends on observed reductions in catheter-BSI.

The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States

Statistical studies of rainfed maize yields in the United States(1) and elsewhere(2) have indicated two clear features: a strong negative yield response to accumulation of temperatures above 30 degrees C (or extreme degree days (EDD)), and a relatively weak response to seasonal rainfall. Here we show that the process-based Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is able to reproduce both of these relationships in the Midwestern United States and provide insight into underlying mechanisms. The predominant effects of EDD in APSIM are associated with increased vapour pressure deficit, which contributes to water stress in two ways: by increasing demand for soil water to sustain a given rate of carbon assimilation, and by reducing future supply of soil water by raising transpiration rates. APSIM computes daily water stress as the ratio of water supply to demand, and during the critical month of July this ratio is three times more responsive to 2 degrees C warming than to a 20% precipitation reduction. The results suggest a relatively minor role for direct heat stress on reproductive organs at present temperatures in this region. Effects of elevated CO2 on transpiration efficiency should reduce yield sensitivity to EDD in the coming decades, but at most by 25%.

Critical behavior of the aqueous electrolytic system 3-methylpyridine+D2O+NaBr

The system 3-methylpyridine(3MP)+water(H2O)+NaBr has been the subject of an intense scientific debate since the work of Jacob [Phys. Rev. E. 58, 2188 (1988)] and Anisimov [Phys. Rev. Lett. 85, 2336 (2000)]. The crossover critical behavior of this system seemed to show remarkable sensitivity to the weight fraction (X) of the ionic impurity NaBr. In the range X <= 0.10 the system displayed Ising behavior and a pronounced crossover to mean-field behavior in the range 0.10 <= X <= 0.16. A complete mean-field behavior was observed at X=0.17, a result that was later attributed to the existence of long-living nonequilibrium states in this system [Kostko , Phys. Rev. E. 70, 026118 (2004)]. In this paper, we report the near-critical behavior of osmotic susceptibility in the isotopically related ternary system, 3MP+heavy water(D2O)+NaBr. Detailed light-scattering experiments performed at exactly the same NaBr concentrations as investigated by Jacob reveal that the system 3MP+D2O+NaBr shows a simple Ising-type critical behavior with gamma similar or equal to 1.24 and nu similar or equal to 0.63 over the entire NaBr concentration range 0 <= X <= 0.1900. The crossover behavior is predominantly nonmonotonic and is completed well outside the critical domain. An analysis in terms of the effective susceptibility exponent (gamma(eff)) reveals that the crossover behavior is nonmonotonic for 0 <= X <= 0.1793 and tends to become monotonic for X > 0.1793. The correlation length amplitude xi(o), has a value of similar or equal to 2 A for 0.0250 <= X <= 0.1900, whereas for X=0, xi(o)similar or equal to 3.179 A. Since isotopic H -> D substitution is not expected to change the critical behavior of the system, our results support the recent results obtained by Kostko [Phys. Rev. E. 70, 026118 (2004)] that 3MP+H2O+NaBr exhibits universal Ising-type critical behavior typical for other aqueous solutions.

The Tevatron Higgs exclusion limits and theoretical uncertainties: A critical appraisal

We examine the exclusion limits set by the CDF and D0 experiments on the Standard Model Higgs boson mass from their searches at the Tevatron in the light of large theoretical uncertainties on the signal and background cross sections. We show that when these uncertainties are consistently taken into account, the sensitivity of the experiments becomes significantly lower and the currently excluded mass range M-H = 158-175 GeV could be entirely reopened. The necessary luminosity required to recover the current sensitivity is found to be a factor of two higher than the present one. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Partial Flow Sensitivity

Compiler optimizations need precise and scalable analyses to discover program properties. We propose a partially flow-sensitive framework that tries to draw on the scalability of flow-insensitive algorithms while providing more precision at some specific program points. Provided with a set of critical nodes — basic blocks at which more precise information is desired — our partially flow-sensitive algorithm computes a reduced control-flow graph by collapsing some sets of non-critical nodes. The algorithm is more scalable than a fully flow-sensitive one as, assuming that the number of critical nodes is small, the reduced flow-graph is much smaller than the original flow-graph. At the same time, a much more precise information is obtained at certain program points than would had been obtained from a flow-insensitive algorithm.

Sensitivity of nucleation phenomena on range of interaction potential

Theoretical and computational investigations of nucleation have been plagued by the sensitivity of the phase diagram to the range of the interaction potential. As the surface tension depends strongly on the range of interaction potential and as the classical nucleation theory (CNT) predicts the free energy barrier to be directly proportional to the cube of the surface tension, one expects a strong sensitivity of nucleation barrier to the range of the potential; however, CNT leaves many aspects unexplored. We find for gas-liquid nucleation in Lennard-Jones system that on increasing the range of interaction the kinetic spinodal (KS) (where the mechanism of nucleation changes from activated to barrierless) shifts deeper into the metastable region. Therefore the system remains metastable for larger value of supersaturation and this allows one to explore the high metastable region without encountering the KS. On increasing the range of interaction, both the critical cluster size and pre-critical minima in the free energy surface of kth largest cluster, at respective kinetic spinodals, shift towards smaller cluster size. In order to separate surface tension contribution to the increase in the barrier from other non-trivial factors, we introduce a new scaling form for surface tension and use it to capture both the temperature and the interaction range dependence of surface tension. Surprisingly, we find only a weak non-trivial contribution from other factors to the free energy barrier of nucleation. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.3685835]

A critical examination of the paradox of strength and ductility in ultrafine-grained metals

The paradox of strength and ductility is now well established and denotes the difficulty of simultaneously achieving both high strength and high ductility. This paradox was critically examined using a cast Al-7% Si alloy processed by high-pressure torsion (HPT) for up to 10 turns at a temperature of either 298 or 445 K. This processing reduces the grain size to a minimum of similar to 0.4 mu m and also decreases the average size of the Si particles. The results show that samples processed to high numbers of HPT turns exhibit both high strength and high ductility when tested at relatively low strain rates and the strain rate sensitivity under these conditions is similar to 0.14 which suggests that flow occurs by some limited grain boundary sliding and crystallographic slip. The results are also displayed on the traditional diagram for strength and ductility and they demonstrate the potential for achieving high strength and high ductility by increasing the number of turns in HPT.

Notch sensitivity in nanoscale metallic glass specimens: Insights from continuum simulations

Recent experiments have shown that nano-sized metallic glass (MG) specimens subjected to tensile loading exhibit increased ductility and work hardening. Failure occurs by necking as opposed to shear banding which is seen in bulk samples. Also, the necking is generally observed at shallow notches present on the specimen surface. In this work, continuum finite element analysis of tensile loading of nano-sized notched MG specimens is conducted using a thermodynamically consistent non-local plasticity model to clearly understand the deformation behavior from a mechanics perspective. It is found that plastic zone size in front of the notch attains a saturation level at the stage when a dominant shear band forms extending across the specimen. This size scales with an intrinsic material length associated with the interaction stress between flow defects. A transition in deformation behavior from quasi-brittle to ductile becomes possible when this critical plastic zone size is larger than the uncracked ligament length. These observations corroborate with atomistic simulations and experimental results. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contingent sensitivity to configuration in a nonlinear evolution system

A trans-scopic sensitivity of macroscopic failure to slight differentiation in the meso-scopic structure of a system with nonlinear evolution is reported. A periodical chain following a non-local load-sharing evolution was applied as a propotype in failure study. The results demonstrate that there is a transition region composed of globally stable (GS) and evolution induced catastrophic (EIC) modes. That is different from a critical threshold as predicted by percolation and renormalization group theories. Moreover, the EIC mode shows a distinctive sample specific behaviour. For instance, some neighbouring initial states may evolve into completely different final states, though different initial states can evolve into the same final states. As an example, a marginal configuration of EIC mode, a quasi-Fibonacci skeleton, is constructed.

A New Ignition Criterion Based Upon a Critical Thermal Energy Density

It has long been known that various ignition criteria of energetic materials have been limited in applicability to small regions. In order to explore the physical nature of ignition, we calculated how much thermal energy per unit mass of energetic materials was absorbed under different external stimuli. Hence, data of several typical sensitivity tests were analyzed by order of magnitude estimation. Then a new concept on critical thermal energy density was formulated. Meanwhile, the chemical nature of ignition was probed into by chemical kinetics.

18S rRNA V9 metabarcoding for diet characterization: a critical evaluation with two sympatric zooplanktivorous fish species

The potential of the 18S rRNA V9 metabarcoding approach for diet assessment was explored using MiSeq paired-end (PE; 2 9 150 bp) technology. To critically evaluate the method's performance with degraded/digested DNA, the diets of two zooplanktivorous fish species from the Bay of Biscay, European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) and European sprat (Sprattus sprattus), were analysed. The taxonomic resolution and quantitative potential of the 18S V9 metabarcoding was first assessed both in silico and with mock and field plankton samples. Our method was capable of discriminating species within the reference database in a reliable way providing there was at least one variable position in the 18S V9 region. Furthermore, it successfully discriminated diet between both fish species, including habitat and diel differences among sardines, overcoming some of the limitations of traditional visual-based diet analysis methods. The high sensitivity and semi-quantitative nature of the 18S V9 metabarcoding approach was supported by both visual microscopy and qPCR-based results. This molecular approach provides an alternative cost and time effective tool for food-web analysis.

Sensitivity of HER-2/neu antibodies in archival tissue samples of invasive breast carcinomas. Correlation with oncogene amplification in 160 cases.

Overexpression and amplification of the HER-2 oncogene in patients with breast cancer has correlated with early onset of metastasis, resistance to hormonal therapy and some forms of chemotherapy, and shortened survival. Therefore, evaluation of this putative prognostic or predictive factor seems critical. Because different antibodies are used for the detection of the 185-kd HER-2 oncoprotein, we studied the sensitivity of 3 frequently used antibodies. Immunohistochemistry results were correlated with gene amplification level as assessed by fluorescence in situ hybridization. Protein overexpression was found in 17.2% and 12.5% of cases using antibodies against the external (TAB250) and internal (CB11) domains of the protein, respectively, and in 38.0% of cases using a rabbit polyclonal antibody. Fluorescence in situ hybridization was successful in all 160 tumors, and amplification was found in 37 tumors (23.1%). The monoclonal antibody TAB250 had the lowest misclassification rate, 9.6% (sensitivity, 67%; specificity, 97.5%).