Modelling SME credit risk : a Thai empirical evidence

This paper develops and tests a model to predict small and medium enterprise (SME) financial distress based on empirical evidence from Thailand. A sample comprising 198 financial statements of non-financially distressed and 68 statements of financially distressed SMEs were used. A parametric t-test was conducted to establish differences between financial characteristics of the two groups of SMEs.

Results show statistically significant differences (t values significant at .001) between the two groups of SMEs in the financial ratios used for the study. Discriminant analysis was then conducted to develop a model for predicting the likelihood of an SME experiencing financial distress.

The model hits an accuracy level of 97%, which compares favourably with the probability of accurate classification by chance (i.e., 65% after adjusting for the unequal sample sizes of the two groups of SMEs). A test of the model with a new sample shows the validity of the model beyond the original sample, confirming that Thai SME financial distress is amenable to prediction to a statistically significant extent. The model is expected to serve SME managers and creditors in assessing financial health of SMEs before making important decisions. The results are also expected to inform policymakers in formulating economic policies concerning SMEs.

Counter-credit-risk yield spreads: a puzzle in China's corporate bond market

In this paper, using China's risk-free and corporate zero yields together with aggregate credit risk measures and various control variables from 2006 to 2013, we document a puzzle of counter-credit-risk corporate yield spreads. We interpret this puzzle as a symptom of the immaturity of China's credit bond market, which reveals a distorted pricing mechanism latent in the fundamental of this market. We also find interesting results about relationships between corporate yield spreads and interest rates and risk premia and the stock index, and these results are somewhat attributed to this puzzle.

Demand aggregation and credit risk effects in pooled procurement: evidence from the Brazilian public purchases of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies

Pooled procurement has an important role in reducing acquisition prices of goods. A pool of buyers, which aggregates demand for its members, increases bargaining power and allows suppliers to achieve economies of scale and scope in the production. Such aggregation demand e ect lowers prices paid for buyers. However, when a buyer with a good reputation for paying suppliers in a timely manner is joined in the pool by a buyer with bad reputation may have its price paid increased due to the credit risk e ect on prices. This will happen because prices paid in a pooled procurement should refect the (higher) average buyers' credit risk. Using a data set on Brazilian public purchases of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies, we nd evidence supporting both e ects. We show that the prices paid by public bodies in Brazil are lower when they buy through pooled procurement than individually. On the other hand, federal agencies (i.e. good buyers) pay higher prices for products when they are joined by state agencies (i.e. bad buyers) in a pool. Such evidence suggests that pooled procurement should be carefully designed to avoid that prices paid increase for its members.

The effects of credit risk transfer on bank monitoring and firm financing

This paper examines the efects of the transfer of credit risk associated with bank loans. We are interested in (a) whether the transfer of credit risk has any impact on the intensity with which banks monitor their borrowers and (b) whether credit risk transfer infuences the amount of financing that is provided to firms in an economy. Our model first develops conditions under which bank finance is available to firrms, mainly in the spirit of Holmstrom/Tirole (1997). We then introduce projects with uncorrelated pay-offs and argue that one possible economic rationale for credit risk transfer is diversi¯cation. We analyze whether and how within this scenario the transfer of the credit risk of loans changes a bank's incentives to monitor its debtors. Finally we investigate whether and what kind of impact this may have on the amount of ¯nancing available to firms in an economy. Our results indicate that the monitoring incentives are being eroded indeed and that credit risk transfer can increase the overall amount of obtainable funds in an economy.

Wrong-way risk in stock swaps : measuring counterparty credit risk and CVA

Uma forma interessante para uma companhia que pretende assumir uma posição comprada em suas próprias ações ou lançar futuramente um programa de recompra de ações, mas sem precisar dispor de caixa ou ter que contratar um empréstimo, ou então se protegendo de uma eventual alta no preço das ações, é através da contratação de um swap de ações. Neste swap, a companhia fica ativa na variação de sua própria ação enquanto paga uma taxa de juros pré ou pós-fixada. Contudo, este tipo de swap apresenta risco wrong-way, ou seja, existe uma dependência positiva entre a ação subjacente do swap e a probabilidade de default da companhia, o que precisa ser considerado por um banco ao precificar este tipo de swap. Neste trabalho propomos um modelo para incorporar a dependência entre probabilidades de default e a exposição à contraparte no cálculo do CVA para este tipo de swap. Utilizamos um processo de Cox para modelar o instante de ocorrência de default, dado que a intensidade estocástica de default segue um modelo do tipo CIR, e assumindo que o fator aleatório presente na ação subjacente e que o fator aleatório presente na intensidade de default são dados conjuntamente por uma distribuição normal padrão bivariada. Analisamos o impacto no CVA da incorporação do riscowrong-way para este tipo de swap com diferentes contrapartes, e para diferentes prazos de vencimento e níveis de correlação.

Mortgage securitization and its credit risk control

This dissertation concentrate on the mortgage securitization and its credit risk, which are criticized as the main causes of the financial crisis. From the point of the veiw of mortgage's evolution, the nature, structure and function of mortgage has been radically changed, yet the mortgage law did not give appropriate response to this market change. Meanwhile, the U.S legilslations facilitating the mortgage securitization also have rotten the legal foundations for mortgage market self-regulation and sustained development. In contrast, the EU covered bond system has kept financial stability for 200 years' time, and their statutory approach has been proved to be able to control the credit risk and incentive problems very well, in combination of market self-regulation and public regulation. So the future reform should be directed to strengthen the market's capacity of self-regulation and improve the public regulation. For the development of mortgage securitization in China, it is suggested to introduce the EU covered bond system for the reason of the equilibrium between funding efficiency and financial stability.

Empirical Analysis of Credit Risk Regime Switching and Temporal Conditional Default Correlation in Credit Default Swap Valuation: The Market liquidity effect

In this paper, we extend the debate concerning Credit Default Swap valuation to include time varying correlation and co-variances. Traditional multi-variate techniques treat the correlations between covariates as constant over time; however, this view is not supported by the data. Secondly, since financial data does not follow a normal distribution because of its heavy tails, modeling the data using a Generalized Linear model (GLM) incorporating copulas emerge as a more robust technique over traditional approaches. This paper also includes an empirical analysis of the regime switching dynamics of credit risk in the presence of liquidity by following the general practice of assuming that credit and market risk follow a Markov process. The study was based on Credit Default Swap data obtained from Bloomberg that spanned the period January 1st 2004 to August 08th 2006. The empirical examination of the regime switching tendencies provided quantitative support to the anecdotal view that liquidity decreases as credit quality deteriorates. The analysis also examined the joint probability distribution of the credit risk determinants across credit quality through the use of a copula function which disaggregates the behavior embedded in the marginal gamma distributions, so as to isolate the level of dependence which is captured in the copula function. The results suggest that the time varying joint correlation matrix performed far superior as compared to the constant correlation matrix; the centerpiece of linear regression models.

The Effects of Credit Risk on Dynamic Portfolio Management: A New Computational Approach

The study investigates the role of credit risk in a continuous time stochastic asset allocation model, since the traditional dynamic framework does not provide credit risk flexibility. The general model of the study extends the traditional dynamic efficiency framework by explicitly deriving the optimal value function for the infinite horizon stochastic control problem via a weighted volatility measure of market and credit risk. The model's optimal strategy was then compared to that obtained from a benchmark Markowitz-type dynamic optimization framework to determine which specification adequately reflects the optimal terminal investment returns and strategy under credit and market risks. The paper shows that an investor's optimal terminal return is lower than typically indicated under the traditional mean-variance framework during periods of elevated credit risk. Hence I conclude that, while the traditional dynamic mean-variance approach may indicate the ideal, in the presence of credit-risk it does not accurately reflect the observed optimal returns, terminal wealth and portfolio selection strategies.

US Corporate Default Swap Valuation: The Market Liquidity Hypothesis and Autonomous Credit Risk

This paper develops a reduced form three-factor model which includes a liquidity proxy of market conditions which is then used to provide implicit prices. The model prices are then compared with observed market prices of credit default swaps to determine if swap rates adequately reflect market risks. The findings of the analysis illustrate the importance of liquidity in the valuation process. Moreover, market liquidity, a measure of investors. willingness to commit resources in the credit default swap (CDS) market, was also found to improve the valuation of investors. autonomous credit risk. Thus a failure to include a liquidity proxy could underestimate the implied autonomous credit risk. Autonomous credit risk is defined as the fractional credit risk which does not vary with changes in market risk and liquidity conditions.

Credit risk & forward price models

Doutoramento em Gestão

Political Risk in Credit Evaluation: Empirical Studies and Survey Results

Financing trade between economic agents located in different countries is affected by many types of risks, resulting from incomplete information about the debtor, the problems of enforcing international contracts, or the prevalence of political and financial crises. Trade is important for economic development and the availability of trade finance is essential, especially for developing countries. Relatively few studies treat the topic of political risk, particularly in the context of international lending. This thesis explores new ground to identify links between political risk and international debt defaults. The core hypothesis of the study is that the default probability of debt increases with increasing political risk in the country of the borrower. The thesis consists of three essays that support the hypothesis from different angles of the credit evaluation process. The first essay takes the point of view of an international lender assessing the credit risk of a public borrower. The second investigates creditworthiness assessment of companies. The obtained results are substantiated in the third essay that deals with an extensive political risk survey among finance professionals in developing countries. The financial instruments of core interest are export credit guaranteed debt initiated between the Export Credit Agency of Finland and buyers in 145 countries between 1975 and 2006. Default events of the foreign credit counterparts are conditioned on country-specific macroeconomic variables, corporate-specific accounting information as well as political risk indicators from various international sources. Essay 1 examines debt issued to government controlled institutions and conditions public default events on traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, in addition to selected political and institutional risk factors. Confirming previous research, the study finds country indebtedness and the GDP growth rate to be significant indicators of public default. Further, it is shown that public defaults respond to various political risk factors. However, the impact of the risk varies between countries at different stages of economic development. Essay 2 proceeds by investigating political risk factors as conveivable drivers of corporate default and uses traditional accounting variables together with new political risk indicators in the credit evaluation of private debtors. The study finds links between corporate default and leverage, as well as between corporate default and the general investment climate and measeures of conflict in the debtor country. Essay 3 concludes the thesis by offering survey evidence on the impact of political risk on debt default, as perceived and experienced by 103 finance professionals in 38 developing countries. Taken together, the results of the thesis suggest that various forms of political risk are associated with international debt defaults and continue to pose great concerns for both international creditors and borrowers in developing countries. The study provides new insights on the importance of variable selection in country risk analysis, and shows how political risk is actually perceived and experienced in the riskier, often lower income countries of the global economy.

Pricing credit derivatives

The financial crisis set off by the default of Lehman Brothers in 2008 leading to disastrous consequences for the global economy has focused attention on regulation and pricing issues related to credit derivatives. Credit risk refers to the potential losses that can arise due to the changes in the credit quality of financial instruments. These changes could be due to changes in the ratings, market price (spread) or default on contractual obligations. Credit derivatives are financial instruments designed to mitigate the adverse impact that may arise due to credit risks. However, they also allow the investors to take up purely speculative positions. In this article we provide a succinct introduction to the notions of credit risk, the credit derivatives market and describe some of the important credit derivative products. There are two approaches to pricing credit derivatives, namely the structural and the reduced form or intensity-based models. A crucial aspect of the modelling that we touch upon briefly in this article is the problem of calibration of these models. We hope to convey through this article the challenges that are inherent in credit risk modelling, the elegant mathematics and concepts that underlie some of the models and the importance of understanding the limitations of the models.

O credit scoring em apoio ao risco de crédito: a identificação de variáveis que contribuem no sucesso da implantação de empresas franqueadas

A concessão de crédito a empresas que participam do mercado consiste na entrega de um ativo em determinado momento, com a promessa de pagamento deste bem ou direito em data futura. Tal situação se configura como um evento incerto, pois existe a possibilidade de que tal obrigação não seja honrada pela promitente compradora, originando desta forma, o risco de crédito. Cabe à parte concessora do ativo que origina o risco de crédito, verificar a capacidade de seu cliente em cumprir o compromisso futuro assumido, analisando as variáveis que sugerem o sucesso da operação de crédito. As empresas que se encontram em fase de implantação caracterizam-se não somente pela ausência de histórico das variáveis acima, como também pelo aumento considerável do risco de continuidade. Tal situação é comprovada por pesquisas realizadas em empresas com até cinco anos de atuação. A impossibilidade na mensuração da capacidade de crédito proporcionada por este cenário, ocasiona severa restrição creditícia às empresas novas, principalmente ao crédito de longo prazo, imprescindível nesta fase de investimentos. Entretanto, esta restrição não se verifica em empresas de franquia, cujo empreendedor tem o privilégio de iniciar seu negócio com linhas de crédito de investimentos já prontas no mercado com esta finalidade. Este estudo objetiva identificar quais as características presentes em empresas franqueadas que permitem a concessão de crédito segura na fase de implantação por parte das instituições financeiras e se tais características podem discriminar variáveis que são determinantes no sucesso da franqueada proponente ao crédito bancário. A aplicação de análise fatorial em banco de dados com empresas de franquia permitiu identificar com sucesso um grupo de sete principais variáveis principais, que serviram de base a um modelo de regressão logística e análise discriminante. O modelo de regressão logística mostrou-se bom para a melhora da probabilidade de acerto de empresas solventes ao passo que a análise discriminante não apresentou melhora nesses resultados.

The Impact of Extension and Ecosystem Services on Smallholders’ Credit Constraint.

On formal credit markets, access to formal credit and reasonable credit terms of smallholder farmers
in rural sub-Saharan Africa is limited due to adverse selection. Financial institutions operating in
rural areas often cannot distinguish between borrowers (farmers) that are creditworthy and those that
are not, thus, allocate limited resource to agriculture to reduce credit risk. In the presence of limited business quality signaling by smallholder farmers, financial institutions shall demand for collateral and/or offer unfavorable contract terms. Moreover, agricultural productivity of rural sub-Saharan
Africa, dominated by subsistence or small-scale farmers, is also negatively impacted by the adverse
effect of climate change. A strategy that may make the farming practices of smallholder farmer’s
climate resilient and profitable may also improve smallholder farmer's access to formal credit. This
study investigates to what extent participating in ecosystem and extension services (EES) programs
signals business quality of smallholders, thus granting them credit accessibility. We collected data
on 210 smallholder farmers in 2013, comprising farmers that receive payments for ecosystem
services (PES) and farm management training from the International Small Group Tree Planting
Program (TIST) Kenya to test the aforementioned theory empirically. We use game theory,
particularly a screening and sorting model, to illustrate the prospects for farmers with EES to access
formal credit and to improve their credit terms given that they receive PES and banking services
training. Furthermore, the PES’ long term duration (10 – 30 years) generates stable cash-flow which
may be perceived as collateral substitute. Results suggest that smallholder farmers in the TIST
program were less likely to be credit constraint compared to non-TIST farmers. Distance to market,
education, livestock and farm income are factors that determine access to credit from microfinance
institutions in rural Kenya. Amongst farmers that have obtained loans, those keeping business records
enjoy more favorable formal credit conditions. These farmers were observed to pay ca. 5 percent less
interest rate in microfinance charges. For TIST farmers, this type of farm management practices may
be attributed to the banking services and other training they receive within the program. While the
availability of classical collateral (farmlands) and PES may reduce interest rate, the latter was found
to be statistically insignificant. This research underlines the importance of an effective extension
services in rural areas of developing countries and the need to improve gains from conservation
agriculture and ensuing PES. The benefits associated with EES and PES may encompass agricultural
financing.