Identifying indicators of sustainable development using the global sustainability quadrant approach

Advances in information technology and global data availability have opened the door for assessments of sustainable development at a truly macro scale. It is now fairly easy to conduct a study of sustainability using the entire planet as the unit of analysis; this is precisely what this work set out to accomplish. The study began by examining some of the best known composite indicator frameworks developed to measure sustainability at the country level today. Most of these were found to value human development factors and a clean local environment, but to gravely overlook consumption of (remote) resources in relation to nature’s capacity to renew them, a basic requirement for a sustainable state. Thus, a new measuring standard is proposed, based on the Global Sustainability Quadrant approach. In a two‐dimensional plot of nations’ Human Development Index (HDI) vs. their Ecological Footprint (EF) per capita, the Sustainability Quadrant is defined by the area where both dimensions satisfy the minimum conditions of sustainable development: an HDI score above 0.8 (considered ‘high’ human development), and an EF below the fair Earth‐share of 2.063 global hectares per person. After developing methods to identify those countries that are closest to the Quadrant in the present‐day and, most importantly, those that are moving towards it over time, the study tackled the question: what indicators of performance set these countries apart? To answer this, an analysis of raw data, covering a wide array of environmental, social, economic, and governance performance metrics, was undertaken. The analysis used country rank lists for each individual metric and compared them, using the Pearson Product Moment Correlation function, to the rank lists generated by the proximity/movement relative to the Quadrant measuring methods. The analysis yielded a list of metrics which are, with a high degree of statistical significance, associated with proximity to – and movement towards – the Quadrant; most notably: Favorable for sustainable development: use of contraception, high life expectancy, high literacy rate, and urbanization. Unfavorable for sustainable development: high GDP per capita, high language diversity, high energy consumption, and high meat consumption. A momentary gain, but a burden in the long‐run: high carbon footprint and debt. These results could serve as a solid stepping stone for the development of more reliable composite index frameworks for assessing countries’ sustainability.

The new economy in Spain: a regional analysis

Paper submitted to the 44th European Congress of the European Regional Science Association, Porto, 25-29 August 2004.

Spillovers from foreign direct investment in Central and Eastern Europe:an index for measuring a country’s potential to benefit from technology spillovers

In the paper, we construct a composite indicator to estimate the potential of four Central and Eastern European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) to benefit from productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) in the manufacturing sector. Such transfers of technology are one of the main benefits of FDI for the host country, and should also be one of the main determinants of FDI incentives offered to investing multinationals by governments, but they are difficult to assess ex ante. For our composite index, we use six components to proxy the main channels and determinants of these spillovers. We have tried several weighting and aggregation methods, and we consider our results robust. According to the analysis of our results, between 2003 and 2007 all four countries were able to increase their potential to benefit from such spillovers, although there are large differences between them. The Czech Republic clearly has the most potential to benefit from productivity spillovers, while Poland has the least. The relative positions of Hungary and Slovakia depend to some extent on the exact weighting and aggregation method of the individual components of the index, but the differences are not large. These conclusions have important implications both the investment strategies of multinationals and government FDI policies.

Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Eastern Europe. An index for measuring a country’s potential to benefit from technology spillovers

In the paper, we construct a composite indicator to estimate the potential of four Central and Eastern European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) to benefit from productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) in the manufacturing sector. Such transfers of technology are one of the main benefits of FDI for the host country, and should also be one of the main determinants of FDI incentives offered to investing multinationals by governments, but they are difficult to assess ex ante. For our composite index, we use six components to proxy the main channels and determinants of these spillovers. We have tried several weighting and aggregation methods, and we consider our results robust. According to the analysis of our results, between 2003 and 2007 all four countries were able to increase their potential to benefit from such spillovers, although there are large differences between them. The Czech Republic clearly has the most potential to benefit from productivity spillovers, while Poland has the least. The relative positions of Hungary and Slovakia depend to some extent on the exact weighting and aggregation method of the individual components of the index, but the differences are not large. These conclusions have important implication both the investment strategies of multinationals and government FDI policies.

Measuring Benefits of Technology Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment in Central and Eastern Europe

In this paper, we construct a composite indicator to estimate the potential of four Central and Eastern European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) to benefit from productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI) in the manufacturing sector. Such transfers of technology are one of the main benefits of FDI for the host country, and should also be one of the main determinants of FDI incentives offered to investing multinationals by governments, but they are difficult to assess ex ante. For our composite index, we use six components to proxy the main channels and determinants of these spillovers. We have tried several weighting and aggregation methods, and we consider our results robust. According to the analysis of our results, between 2003 and 2007 all four countries were able to increase their potential to benefit from such spillovers, although there are large differences between them. The Czech Republic clearly has the most potential to benefit from productivity spillovers, while Poland has the least. The relative positions of Hungary and Slovakia depend to some extent on the exact weighting and aggregation method of the individual components of the index, but the differences are not large. These conclusions have important implications both for the investment strategies of multinationals and government FDI policies.

A Framework for Spatial Road Safety Assessment: Case Study of Northern Ireland

Road traffic injuries are a major health issue worldwide. There are many factors that can
affect the levels of road traffic collisions which in turn increase the levels of people killed or
seriously injured. When road traffic collisions occur, observed facts are recorded in relation
to the incident. These facts are recorded as variable observations, and for this study,
variables and indicators are defined almost equivalently. There can be hundreds of different
indicators for the various collisions, as different countries face different road situations. This
makes it difficult to perform a road safety assessment, which can be applied globally. The
goal of this study is to select the most appropriate indicators and create a composite
indicator as a function of these indicators, which can be used as summary values, allowing
ease of comparisons between the countries/regions that have undergone a road safety
assessment. The composite indicator will then be used to assess the current situation in
Northern Ireland and provide scores for ranking policing in terms of overall road safety on
their road networks.

A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area

We evaluate the performance of composite leading indicators of turning points of inflation in the Euro area, constructed by combining the techniques of Fourier analysis and Kalman filters with the National Bureau of Economic Research methodology. In addition, the study compares the empirical performance of Euro Simple Sum and Divisia monetary aggregates and provides a tentative answer to the issue of whether or not the UK should join the Euro area. Our findings suggest that, first, the cyclical pattern of the different composite leading indicators very closely reflect that of the inflation cycle for the Euro area; second, the empirical performance of the Euro Divisia is better than its Simple Sum counterpart and third, the UK is better out of the Euro area. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

Assessing land-use and transport integration via a spatial composite indexing model

Achieving sustainable urban development is identified as one ultimate goal of many contemporary planning endeavours and has become central to formulation of urban planning policies. Within this concept, land-use and transport integration is highlighted as one of the most important and attainable policy objectives. In many cities, integration is embraced as an integral part of local development plans, and a number of key integration principles are identified. However, the lack of available evaluation methods to measure extent of urban sustainability levels prevents successful implementation of these principles. This paper introduces a new indicator-based spatial composite indexing model developed to measure sustainability performance of urban settings by taking into account land-use and transport integration principles. Model indicators are chosen via a thorough selection process in line with key principles of land-use and transport integration. These indicators are grouped into categories and themes according to their topical relevance. These indicators are then aggregated to form a spatial composite index to portray an overview of the sustainability performance of the pilot study area used for model demonstration. The study results revealed that the model is a practical instrument for evaluating success of local integration policies and visualizing sustainability performance of built environments and useful in both identifying problematic areas as well as formulating policy interventions.

Composite material and piezoelectric coefficient uncertainty effects on structural health monitoring using feedback control gains as damage indicators

This article addresses uncertainty effect on the health monitoring of a smart structure using control gain shifts as damage indicators. A finite element model of the smart composite plate with surface-bonded piezoelectric sensors and actuators is formulated using first-order shear deformation theory and a matrix crack model is integrated into the finite element model. A constant gain velocity/position feedback control algorithm is used to provide active damping to the structure. Numerical results show that the response of the structure is changed due to matrix cracks and this change can be compensated by actively tuning the feedback controller. This change in control gain can be used as a damage indicator for structural health monitoring. Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to study the effect of material uncertainty on the damage indicator by considering composite material properties and piezoelectric coefficients as independent random variables. It is found that the change in position feedback control gain is a robust damage indicator.

Guided-wave based structural health monitoring of built-up composite structures using spectral finite element method

The paper discusses basically a wave propagation based method for identifying the damage due to skin-stiffener debonding in a stiffened structure. First, a spectral finite element model (SFEM) is developed for modeling wave propagation in general built-up structures, using the concept of assembling 2D spectral plate elements and the model is then used in modeling wave propagation in a skin-stiffener type structure. The damage force indicator (DFI) technique, which is derived from the dynamic stiffness matrix of the healthy stiffened structure (obtained from the SFEM model) along with the nodal displacements of the debonded stiffened structure (obtained from 2D finite element model), is used to identify the damage due to the presence of debond in a stiffened structure.

Wave propagation in a porous composite beam: Porosity determination, location and quantification

A wave-based method is developed to quantify the defect due to porosity and also to locate the porous regions, in a composite beam-type structure. Wave propagation problem for a porous laminated composite beam is modeled using spectral finite element method (SFEM), based on the modified rule of mixture approach, which is used to include the effect of porosity on the stiffness and density of the composite beam structure. The material properties are obtained from the modified rule of mixture model, which are used in a conventional SFEM to develop a new model for solving wave propagation problems in porous laminated composite beam. The influence of the porosity content on the group speed and also the effect of variation in theses parameters on the time responses are studied first, in the forward problem. The change in the time responses with the change in the porosity of the structure is used as a parameter to find the porosity content in a composite beam. The actual measured response from a structure and the numerically obtained time responses are used for the estimation of porosity, by solving a nonlinear optimization problem. The effect of the length of the porous region (in the propagation direction), on the time responses, is studied. The damage force indicator technique is used to locate the porous region in a beam and also to find its length, using the measured wave propagation responses. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A three-regime model of speculative behaviour: modelling the evolution of the S&P 500 composite index

We examine whether a three-regime model that allows for dormant, explosive and collapsing speculative behaviour can explain the dynamics of the S&P 500. We extend existing models of speculative behaviour by including a third regime that allows a bubble to grow at a steady rate, and propose abnormal volume as an indicator of the probable time of bubble collapse. We also examine the financial usefulness of the three-regime model by studying a trading rule formed using inferences from it, whose use leads to higher Sharpe ratios and end of period wealth than from employing existing models or a buy-and-hold strategy.

Development and Evaluation of a Novel pH Indicator Biodegradable Film Based on Cassava Starch

A pH indicator film based on cassava starch plasticized with sucrose and inverted sugar and incorporated with grape and spinach extracts as pH indicator sources (anthocyanin and chlorophyll) has been developed, and its packaging properties have been assessed. A second-order central composite design (2(2)) with three central points and four star points was used to evaluate the mechanical properties (tensile strength, tensile strength at break, and elongation at break percentage), moisture barrier, and microstructure of the films, and its potential as a pH indicator packaging. The films were prepared by the casting technique and conditioned under controlled conditions (75% relative humidity and 23 degrees C), at least 4 days before the analyses. The materials were exposed to different pH solutions (0, 2, 7, 10, and 14) and their color parameters (L*, a*, b*, and haze) were measured by transmittance. Grape and spinach extracts have affected the material characterization. Film properties (mechanical properties and moisture barrier) were strongly influenced by extract concentration presenting lower results than for the control. Films containing a higher concentration of grape extract presented a greater color change at different pH`s suggesting that anthocyanins are more effective as pH indicators than chlorophyll or the mixture of both extracts. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Appl Polym Sci 120: 1069-1079,2011

A monthly indicator of Brazilian GDP. The Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle

This paper constructs an indicator of Brazilian GDP at the monthly ftequency. The peculiar instability and abrupt changes of regimes in the dynamic behavior of the Brazilian business cycle were explicitly modeled within nonlinear ftameworks. In particular, a Markov switching dynarnic factor model was used to combine several macroeconomic variables that display simultaneous comovements with aggregate economic activity. The model generates as output a monthly indicator of the Brazilian GDP and real time probabilities of the current phase of the Brazilian business cycle. The monthly indicator shows a remarkable historical conformity with cyclical movements of GDP. In addition, the estimated filtered probabilities predict ali recessions in sample and out-of-sample. The ability of the indicator in linear forecasting growth rates of GDP is also examined. The estimated indicator displays a better in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance in forecasting growth rates of real GDP, compared to a linear autoregressive model for GDP. These results suggest that the estimated monthly indicator can be used to forecast GDP and to monitor the state of the Brazilian economy in real time.