Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation

We consider whether survey respondents’ probability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters.

Consensus and uncertainty: using forecast probabilities of output declines

A number of studies have addressed the relationship between intra-personal uncertainty and inter-personal disagreement about the future values of economic variables such as output growth and inflation using the SPF. By making use of the SPF respondents' probability forecasts of declines in output, we are able to construct a quarterly series of output growth uncertainty to supplement the annual series that are often used in such analyses. We also consider the relationship between disagreement and uncertainty for probability forecasts of declines in output.

Endogenous Financing and the Long Run Impact of Money Growth on Output and Prices

Most monetary models make use of the quantity theory of money along with a Phillips curve. This implies a strong correlation between money growth and output in the short run (with little or no correlation between money and prices) and a strong long run correlation between money growth and inflation and inflation (with little or no correlation between money growth and output). The empirical evidence between money and inflation is very robust, but the long run money/output relationship is ambiguous at best. This paper attempts to explain this by looking at the impact of money growth on firm financing.

Effects of feeding high levels of cactus (Opuntia ficus-indica Mill) cladodes on urinary output and electrolyte excretion in goats

A study was conducted to determine the effects of feeding spineless cactus cladodes on diuresis and urinary electrolyte excretion in goats. Five bucks were used in a 5 x 5 Latin square experiment with 17-day periods. Experimental diets contained (g/kg dry matter (DM) basis) 370, 470, 570, 670, and 770 spineless cactus cladodes. Water consumption from feed and urine output increased linearly (P<0.05) as the level of cactus cladodes in the diet increased. However, water intake from drinking was low and unaffected by cactus cladode level. Creatinine clearance and urinary Na excretion were similar for all dietary treatments while K excretion decrease linearly (P<0.05) as the level of cactus cladodes in the diet increased. Feeding cactus cladodes caused diuresis and reduced urinary K excretion in goats. Possible reasons for these effects include water over-consumption from cactus cladodes and high dietary K intake. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fatigue-related changes in torque output and electromyographic parameters of trunk muscles during isometric axial rotation exertion - An investigation in patients with back pain and in healthy subjects

Study Design. A cross-sectional case-control study. Objectives. To examine the effect of fatigue on torque output as well as electromyographic frequency and amplitude values of trunk muscles during isometric axial rotation exertion in back pain patients and to compare the results with a matched control group. Summary of Background Data. Back pain patients exhibited different activation strategies in trunk muscles during the axial rotation exertions. Fatigue changes of abdominal and back muscles during axial rotation exertion have not been examined in patients with back pain. Methods. Twelve back pain patients and 12 matched controls performed isometric fatiguing axial rotation to both sides at 80% maximum voluntary contraction in a standing position. During the fatiguing exertion, electromyographic changes of rectus abdominis, external oblique, internal oblique, latissimus dorsi, iliocostalis lumborum, and multifidus were recorded bilaterally. The primary torque in the transverse plane and the coupling torques in sagittal and coronal planes were also measured. Results. No difference in the endurance capacity was found between back pain and control groups. At the initial period of the exertion, back pain patients demonstrated a statistical trend (P = 0.058) of greater sagittal coupling torque as well as lower activity of rectus abdominis and multifidus and higher activity in external oblique. During the fatigue process similar changes of coupling torque were demonstrated in both sagittal and coronal planes, but a smaller fatigue rate for right external oblique, increase in median frequency for latissimus dorsi, and lesser increase in activity for back muscles were found in the back pain group compared with the control group. Conclusions. Alterations in electromyographic activation and fatigue rates of abdominal and back muscles demonstrated during the fatigue process provide insights into the muscle dysfunctions in back pain and may help clinicians to devise more rational treatment strategies.

Effect of fatigue on torque output and electromyographic measures of trunk muscles during isometric axial rotation

Objectives: To examine the changes in torque output resulting from fatigue, as well as changes in electromyographic measures of trunk muscles during isometric axial rotation and to compare these changes between directions of axial rotation. Design: Subjects performed fatiguing right and left isometric axial rotation of the trunk at 80% of maximum voluntary contraction while standing upright. Setting: A rehabilitation center. Participants: Twenty-three men with no history of back pain. Interventions: Not applicable. Main Outcome Measures: Surface electromyographic Signals were recorded from 6 trunk muscles bilaterally. The primary torque in the transverse plane and the coupling torques in sagittal and coronal planes were also measured. Results: During the fatiguing axial rotation contraction, coupling torques of both sagittal and coronal planes were slightly decreased and no difference was found between directions of axial rotation. Decreasing median frequency and an increase in electromyographic amplitude were also found in trunk muscles with different degrees of changes in individual muscles. There were significant differences (P

Nominal and inflation-linked government bonds: An assessment of arbitrage opportunities in UK Gilt Market

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The Dynamics of UK and US Inflation Expectations

This paper investigates the relationship between short term and long term in ation expectations in the US and the UK with a focus on iflation pass through (i.e. how changes in short term expectations affect long term expectations). An econometric methodology is used which allows us to uncover the relationship between in ation pass through and various explanatory variables. We relate our empirical results to theoretical models of anchored, contained and unmoored inflation expectations. For neither country do we find anchored or unmoored inflation expectations. For the US, contained inflation expectations are found. For the UK, our ndings are not consistent with the specifi =c model of contained inflation expectations presented here, but are consistent with a more broad view of expectations being constrained by the existence of an inflation target.

Aggregate and welfare effects of long run inflation risk under inflation and price-level targeting

This paper presents a DSGE model in which long run inflation risk matters for social welfare. Aggregate and welfare effects of long run inflation risk are assessed under two monetary regimes: inflation targeting (IT) and price-level targeting (PT). These effects differ because IT implies base-level drift in the price level, while PT makes the price level stationary around a target price path. Under IT, the welfare cost of long run inflation risk is equal to 0.35 percent of aggregate consumption. Under PT, where long run inflation risk is largely eliminated, it is lowered to only 0.01 per cent. There are welfare gains from PT because it raises average consumption for the young and lowers consumption risk substantially for the old. These results are strongly robust to changes in the PT target horizon and fairly robust to imperfect credibility, fiscal policy, and model calibration. While the distributional effects of an unexpected transition to PT are sizeable, they are short-lived and not welfare-reducing.

Beyond Intermediates: The Role of Consumption and Commuting in the Construction of Local Input-Output Tables

It is a well-established fact in the literature on simulating Input-Output tables that mechanical methods for estimating intermediate trade lead to biased results where cross-hauling is underestimated and Type-I multipliers are overstated. Repeated findings to this effect have led to a primary emphasis on advocating the accurate estimation of intermediate trade flows. This paper reviews previous research and argues for a qualification of the consensus view: When simulating IO tables, construction approaches need to consider spill-over effects driven by wage and consumption flows. In particular, for the case of metropolitan economies, wage and consumption flows are important if accurate Type-II multipliers are to be obtained. This is demonstrated by constructing an interregional Input-Output table, which captures interdependencies between a city and its commuter belt, nested within the wider regional economy. In addition to identifying interdependencies caused by interregional intermediate purchases, data on subregional household incomes and commuter flows are used to identify interdependencies from wage payments and household consumption. The construction of the table is varied around a range of assumptions on intermediate trade and household consumption to capture the sensitivity of multipliers.