An integrated approach for evaluating coastal vulnerability in a changing climate

Coastal hazards such as flooding and erosion threaten many coastal communities and ecosystems. With documented increases in both storm frequency and intensity and projected acceleration of sea level rise, incorporating the impacts of climate change and variability into coastal vulnerability assessments is becoming a necessary, yet challenging task. We are developing an integrated approach to probabilistically incorporate the impacts of climate change into coastal vulnerability assessments via a multi-scale, multi-hazard methodology. By examining the combined hazards of episodic flooding/inundation and storm induced coastal change with chronic trends under a range of future climate change scenarios, a quantitative framework can be established to promote more sciencebased decision making in the coastal zone. Our focus here is on an initial application of our method in southern Oregon, United States. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Integrating climate change impacts to improve understanding of coastal climate change: heavy rains, strong winds, and high seas in coastal Hawaii, Alaska and the Pacific Northwest

Coastal storms, and the strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas that accompany them pose a serious threat to the lives and livelihoods of the peoples of the Pacific basin, from the tropics to the high latitudes. To reduce their vulnerability to the economic, social, and environmental risks associated with these phenomena (and correspondingly enhance their resiliency), decision-makers in coastal communities require timely access to accurate information that affords them an opportunity to plan and respond accordingly. This includes information about the potential for coastal flooding, inundation and erosion at time scales ranging from hours to years, as well as the longterm climatological context of this information. The Pacific Storms Climatology Project (PSCP) was formed in 2006 with the intent of improving scientific understanding of patterns and trends of storm frequency and intensity - “storminess”- and related impacts of these extreme events. The project is currently developing a suite of integrated information products that can be used by emergency managers, mitigation planners, government agencies and decision-makers in key sectors, including: water and natural resource management, agriculture and fisheries, transportation and communication, and recreation and tourism. The PSCP is exploring how the climate-related processes that govern extreme storm events are expressed within and between three primary thematic areas: heavy rains, strong winds, and high seas. To address these thematic areas, PSCP has focused on developing analyses of historical climate records collected throughout the Pacific region, and the integration of these climatological analyses with near-real time observations to put recent weather and climate events into a longer-term perspective.(PDF contains 4 pages)

Using climate extension to assist coastal decision-makers with climate adaptation

Coastal managers need accessible, trusted, tailored resources to help them interpret climate information, identify vulnerabilities, and apply climate information to decisions about adaptation on regional and local levels. For decades, climate scientists have studied the impacts that short term natural climate variability and long term climate change will have on coastal systems. For example, recent estimates based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warming scenarios suggest that global sea levels may rise 0.5 to 1.4 meters above 1990 levels by 2100 (Rahmstorf 2007; Grinsted, Moore, and Jevrejeva 2009). Many low-lying coastal ecosystems and communities will experience more frequent salt water intrusion events, more frequent coastal flooding, and accelerated erosion rates before they experience significant inundation. These changes will affect the ways coastal managers make decisions, such as timing surface and groundwater withdrawals, replacing infrastructure, and planning for changing land use on local and regional levels. Despite the advantages, managers’ use of scientific information about climate variability and change remains limited in environmental decision-making (Dow and Carbone 2007). Traditional methods scientists use to disseminate climate information, like peer-reviewed journal articles and presentations at conferences, are inappropriate to fill decision-makers’ needs for applying accessible, relevant climate information to decision-making. General guides that help managers scope out vulnerabilities and risks are becoming more common; for example, Snover et al. (2007) outlines a basic process for local and state governments to assess climate change vulnerability and preparedness. However, there are few tools available to support more specific decision-making needs. A recent survey of coastal managers in California suggests that boundary institutions can help to fill the gaps between climate science and coastal decision-making community (Tribbia and Moser 2008). The National Sea Grant College Program, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) university-based program for supporting research and outreach on coastal resource use and conservation, is one such institution working to bridge these gaps through outreach. Over 80% of Sea Grant’s 32 programs are addressing climate issues, and over 60% of programs increased their climate outreach programming between 2006 and 2008 (National Sea Grant Office 2008). One way that Sea Grant is working to assist coastal decision-makers with using climate information is by developing effective methods for coastal climate extension. The purpose of this paper is to discuss climate extension methodologies on regional scales, using the Carolinas Coastal Climate Outreach Initiative (CCCOI) as an example of Sea Grant’s growing capacities for climate outreach and extension. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Numerical Modelling of Tsunami Propagation in the South East Arabian Sea (SEAS) and Inundation along the Kerala Coast

Tsunamis are water waves generated by a sudden vertical displacement of the water surface. They are waves generated in the ocean by the disturbance associated with seismic activity, under sea volcanic eruptions, submarine landslides, nuclear explosion or meteorite impacts with the ocean. These waves are generated in the ocean and travel into coastal bays, gulfs, estuaries and rivers. These waves travel as gravity waves with a velocity dependent on water depth. The term tsunami is Japanese and means harbour (tsu) and wave (nami). It has been named so because such waves often develop resonant phenomena in harbours after offshore earthquakes.

Predicted impact of the sea-level rise at VellareColeroon estuarine region of Tamil Nadu coast in India: Mainstreaming adaptation as a coastal zone management option

Low-lying coastal areas are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change as they are highly prone for inundation to SLR (Sea-Level Rise). This study presents an appraisal of the impacts of SLR on the coastal natural resources and its dependent social communities in the low-lying area of VellareColeroon estuarine region of the Tamil Nadu coast, India. Digital Elevation Model (DEM) derived from SRTM 90M (Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission) data, along with GIS (Geographic Information System) techniques are used to identify an area of inundation in the study site. The vulnerability of coastal areas in Vellar-Coleroon estuarine region of Tamil Nadu coast to inundation was calculated based on the projected SLR scenarios of 0.5 m and 1 m. The results demonstrated that about 1570 ha of the LULC (Land use and Land cover) of the study area would be permanently inundated to 0.5 m and 2407 ha for 1 m SLR and has also resulted in the loss of three major coastal natural resources like coastal agriculture, mangroves and aquaculture. It has been identified that six hamlets of the social communities who depend on these resources are at high-risk and vulnerable to 0.5 m SLR and 12 hamlets for 1 m SLR. From the study, it has been emphasized that mainstreaming adaptation options to SLR should be embedded within a coastal zone management and planning effort, which includes all coastal natural resources (ecosystem-based adaptation), and its dependent social communities (community-based adaptation) involved through capacity building

The use of public transport in coastal Australia : modes of travel to work and greenhouse emissions

Commuting to work is one of the most important and regular routines of transportation in towns and cities. From a geographic perspective, the length of people’s commute is influenced, to some degree, by the spatial separation of their home and workplace and the transport infrastructure. The rise of car ownership in Australia from the 1950s to the present was accompanied by a considerable decrease of public transport use. Currently there is an average of 1.4 persons per car in Australia, and private cars are involved in approximately 90% of the trips, and public transportation in only 10%. Increased personal mobility has fuelled the trend of decentralised housing development, mostly without a clear planning for local employment, or alternative means of transportation. Transport sector accounts for 14% of Australia’s net greenhouse gas emissions. Without further policy action, Australia’s emissions are projected to continue to increase. The Australian Federal Government and the new Department of Climate Change have recently published a set of maps showing that rising seas would submerge large parts of Victoria coastal region. Such event would lead to major disruption in planned urban growth areas in the next 50 years with broad scale inundation of dwellings, facilities and road networks. The Greater Geelong Region has well established infrastructure as a major urban centre and tourist destination and hence attracted the attention of federal and state governments in their quest for further development and population growth. As a result of its natural beauty and ecological sensitivity, scenarios for growth in the region are currently under scrutiny from local government as well as development agencies, scientists, and planners. This paper is part of a broad research in the relationship between transportation system, urban form, trip demand, and emissions, as a paramount in addressing the challenges presented by urban growth. Progressing from previous work focused on private cars, this present paper investigates the use of public transport as a mode for commuting in the Greater Geelong Region. Using a GIS based interaction model, it characterises the current use of the existing public transportation system, and also builds a scenario of increased use of the existing public transportation system, estimating potencial reductions in CO2 emissions. This study provides an improved understanding of the extent to which choices of transport mode and travel activity patterns, affect emissions in the context of regional networks. The results indicate that emissions from commuting by public transportation are significantly lower than those from commuting by private car, and emphasise that there are opportunities for large abatment in the greenhouse emissions from the transportation sector related to efforts in increasing the use of existing public transportation system.

Loss of 'blue carbon' from coastal salt marshes following habitat disturbance

Increased recognition of the global importance of salt marshes as 'blue carbon' (C) sinks has led to concern that salt marshes could release large amounts of stored C into the atmosphere (as CO2) if they continue undergoing disturbance, thereby accelerating climate change. Empirical evidence of C release following salt marsh habitat loss due to disturbance is rare, yet such information is essential for inclusion of salt marshes in greenhouse gas emission reduction and offset schemes. Here we investigated the stability of salt marsh (Spartinaalterniflora) sediment C levels following seagrass (Thallasiatestudinum) wrack accumulation; a form of disturbance common throughout the world that removes large areas of plant biomass in salt marshes. At our study site (St Joseph Bay, Florida, USA), we recorded 296 patches (7.5 ± 2.3 m(2) mean area ± SE) of vegetation loss (aged 3-12 months) in a salt marsh meadow the size of a soccer field (7 275 m(2)). Within these disturbed patches, levels of organic C in the subsurface zone (1-5 cm depth) were ~30% lower than the surrounding undisturbed meadow. Subsequent analyses showed that the decline in subsurface C levels in disturbed patches was due to loss of below-ground plant (salt marsh) biomass, which otherwise forms the main component of the long-term 'refractory' C stock. We conclude that disturbance to salt marsh habitat due to wrack accumulation can cause significant release of below-ground C; which could shift salt marshes from C sinks to C sources, depending on the intensity and scale of disturbance. This mechanism of C release is likely to increase in the future due to sea level rise; which could increase wrack production due to increasing storminess, and will facilitate delivery of wrack into salt marsh zones due to higher and more frequent inundation.

Coastal flood vulnerability assessment with geomatic methods: Test sites of western Thailand, Sydney (Australia) and aeolian islands (south tyrrhenian sea, Italy)

The work undertaken in this PhD thesis is aimed at the development and testing of an innovative methodology for the assessment of the vulnerability of coastal areas to marine catastrophic inundation (tsunami). Different approaches are used at different spatial scales and are applied to three different study areas: 1. The entire western coast of Thailand 2. Two selected coastal suburbs of Sydney – Australia 3. The Aeolian Islands, in the South Tyrrhenian Sea – Italy I have discussed each of these cases study in at least one scientific paper: one paper about the Thailand case study (Dall’Osso et al., in review-b), three papers about the Sydney applications (Dall’Osso et al., 2009a; Dall’Osso et al., 2009b; Dall’Osso and Dominey-Howes, in review) and one last paper about the work at the Aeolian Islands (Dall’Osso et al., in review-a). These publications represent the core of the present PhD thesis. The main topics dealt with are outlined and discussed in a general introduction while the overall conclusions are outlined in the last section.

Effects of flooding on coastal vegetation and salt marshes

This thesis examines the effects of flooding on coastal and salt marsh vegetation. I conducted a field experiment in Bellocchio Lagoon to test the effects of different inundation periods (Level 1 = 0.468 or 11.23 hours; Level 2 = 0.351 or 8.42 hours; Level 3 = 0.263 or 6.312 hours; Level 4 = 0.155 or 3.72 hours; Level 5 = 0.082 or 1.963 hours; Level 6 = 0.04 or 0.96 hours) on the growth responses and survival of the salt marsh grass Spartina maritima in summer 2011 and 2012. S. maritima grew better at intermediate inundation times (0,351 hours; 0,263 hours, 0,115 hours; 0,082 hours), while growth and survival were reduced at greater inundation periods (0,468 hours). The differences between the 2011 and 2012 experiment were mainly related to differences in the initial number of shoots (1 and 5, respectively in 2011 and 2012). In the 2011 experiment a significant lower number of plants was present in the levels 1 and 6, the rhizomes reached the max pick in level 4, weights was major in level 4, spike length reached the pick in level 3 while leaf length in level 2. In the 2012 experiment the plants in level 6 all died, the rhizomes were more present in level 3, weights was major in level 3, spike length reached the pick in level 3, as well as leaf length. I also conducted a laboratory experiment which was designed to test the effects of 5 different inundation periods (0 control, 8, 24, 48, 96 hours) on the survival of three coastal vegetation species Agrostis stolonifera, Trifolium repens and Hippopae rhamnoides in summer 2012. The same laboratory experiment was repeated in the Netherlands. In Italy, H. rhamnoides showed a great survival in the controls, a variable performance in the other treatments and a clear decrease in treatment 4. Conversely T. repens and A. stolonifera only survive in the control. In the Netherlands experiment there was a greater variability responses for each species, still at the end of the experiment survival was significantly smaller in treatment 4 (96 h of seawater inundation) for all the three species. The results suggest that increased flooding can affect negatively the survival of both saltmarsh and coastal plants, limiting root system extension and leaf growth. Flooding effect could lead to further decline and fragmentation of the saltmarshes and coastal vegetation, thereby reducing recovery (and thus resilience) of these systems once disturbed. These effects could be amplified by interactions with other co-occurring human impacts in these systems, and it is therefore necessary to identify management options that increase the resilience of these systems.

Effects of artificial defences and flooding on coastal habitats and assemblages

Since large stretches of European coasts are already retreating and projected scenarios are worsening, many artificial structures, such as breakwaters and seawalls, are built as tool against coastal erosion. However artificial structures produce widespread changes that alter the coastal zones and affect the biological communities. My doctoral thesis analyses the consequences of different options for coastal protection, namely hard engineering ‘artificial defences’ (i.e. impact of human-made structures) and ‘no-defence’ (i.e. impact of seawater inundation). I investigated two new aspects of the potential impact of coastal defences. The first was the effect of artificial hard substrates on the fish communities structure. In particular I was interested to test if the differences among breakwaters and natural rocky reef would change depending on the nature of the surrounding habitat of the artificial structure (prevalent sandy rather than rocky). The second was the effect on the native natural sandy habitats of the organic detritus derived from hard-bottom species (green algae and mussels) detached from breakwaters. Furthermore, I investigated the ecological implication of the “no-defend” option, which allow the inundation of coastal habitats. The focus of this study was the potential effect of seawater intrusion on the degradation process of marine, salt-marsh and terrestrial detritus, including changes on the breakdown rates and the associated macrofauna. The PhD research was conducted in three areas along European coasts: North Adriatic sea, Sicilian coast and South-West England where different habitats (coastal, estuarine), biological communities (soft-bottom macro-benthos; rocky-coastal fishes; estuarine macro-invertebrates) and processes (organic enrichment; assemblage structure; leaf-litter breakdown) were analyzed. The research was carried out through manipulative and descriptive field-experiments in which specific hypothesis were tested by univariate and multivariate analyses.

Analysis and development of ecologically based approaches to coastal defense

Climate-change related impacts, notably coastal erosion, inundation and flooding from sea level rise and storms, will increase in the coming decades enhancing the risks for coastal populations. Further recourse to coastal armoring and other engineered defenses to address risk reduction will exacerbate threats to coastal ecosystems. Alternatively, protection services provided by healthy ecosystems is emerging as a key element in climate adaptation and disaster risk management. I examined two distinct approaches to coastal defense on the base of their ecological and ecosystem conservation values. First, I analyzed the role of coastal ecosystems in providing services for hazard risk reduction. The value in wave attenuation of coral reefs was quantitatively demonstrated using a meta-analysis approach. Results indicate that coral reefs can provide wave attenuation comparable to hard engineering artificial defenses and at lower costs. Conservation and restoration of existing coral reefs are cost-effective management options for disaster risk reduction. Second, I evaluated the possibility to enhance the ecological value of artificial coastal defense structures (CDS) as habitats for marine communities. I documented the suitability of CDS to support native, ecologically relevant, habitat-forming canopy algae exploring the feasibility of enhancing CDS ecological value by promoting the growth of desired species. Juveniles of Cystoseira barbata can be successfully transplanted at both natural and artificial habitats and not affected by lack of surrounding adult algal individuals nor by substratum orientation. Transplantation success was limited by biotic disturbance from macrograzers on CDS compared to natural habitats. Future work should explore the reasons behind the different ecological functioning of artificial and natural habitats unraveling the factors and mechanisms that cause it. The comprehension of the functioning of systems associated with artificial habitats is the key to allow environmental managers to identify proper mitigation options and to forecast the impact of alternative coastal development plans.

Patterns of Root Dynamics in Mangrove Forests Along Environmental Gradients in the Florida Coastal Everglades, USA

Patterns of mangrove vegetation in two distinct basins of Florida Coastal Everglades (FCE), Shark River estuary and Taylor River Slough, represent unique opportunities to test hypotheses that root dynamics respond to gradients of resources, regulators, and hydroperiod. We propose that soil total phosphorus (P) gradients in these two coastal basins of FCE cause specific patterns in belowground biomass allocation and net primary productivity that facilitate nutrient acquisition, but also minimize stress from regulators and hydroperiod in flooded soil conditions. Shark River basin has higher P and tidal hydrology with riverine mangroves, in contrast to scrub mangroves of Taylor basin with more permanent flooding and lower P across the coastal landscape. Belowground biomass (0–90 cm) of mangrove sites in Shark River and Taylor River basins ranged from 2317 to 4673 g m-2, with the highest contribution (62–85%) of roots in the shallow root zone (0–45 cm) compared to the deeper root zone (45–90 cm). Total root productivity did not vary significantly among sites and ranged from 407 to 643 g m-2 y-1. Root production in the shallow root zone accounted for 57–78% of total production. Root turnover rates ranged from 0.04 to 0.60 y-1 and consistently decreased as the root size class distribution increased from fine to coarse roots, indicating differences in root longevity. Fine root biomass was negatively correlated with soil P density and frequency of inundation, whereas fine root turnover decreased with increasing soil N:P ratios. Lower P availability in Taylor River basin relative to Shark River basin, along with higher regulator and hydroperiod stress, confirms our hypothesis that interactions of stress from resource limitation and long duration of hydroperiod account for higher fine root biomass along with lower fine root production and turnover. Because fine root production and organic matter accumulation are the primary processes controlling soil formation and accretion in scrub mangrove forests, root dynamics in the P-limited carbonate ecosystem of south Florida have a major controlling role as to how mangroves respond to future impacts of sealevel rise.

Sea level rise and South Florida coastal forests

Coastal ecosystems lie at the forefront of sea level rise. We posit that before the onset of actual inundation, sea level rise will influence the species composition of coastal hardwood hammocks and buttonwood (Conocarpus erectus L.) forests of the Everglades National Park based on tolerance to drought and salinity. Precipitation is the major water source in coastal hammocks and is stored in the soil vadose zone, but vadose water will diminish with the rising water table as a consequence of sea level rise, thereby subjecting plants to salt water stress. A model is used to demonstrate that the constraining effect of salinity on transpiration limits the distribution of freshwater-dependent communities. Field data collected in hardwood hammocks and coastal buttonwood forests over 11 years show that halophytes have replaced glycophytes. We establish that sea level rise threatens 21 rare coastal species in Everglades National Park and estimate the relative risk to each species using basic life history and population traits. We review salinity conditions in the estuarine region over 1999–2009 and associate wide variability in the extent of the annual seawater intrusion to variation in freshwater inflows and precipitation. We also examine species composition in coastal and inland hammocks in connection with distance from the coast, depth to water table, and groundwater salinity. Though this study focuses on coastal forests and rare species of South Florida, it has implications for coastal forests threatened by saltwater intrusion across the globe.

Flux of organic carbon in a riverine mangrove wetland in the Florida Coastal Everglades

Short-term (daily) and seasonal variations in concentration and flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were examined over 15 tidal cycles in a riverine mangrove wetland along Shark River, Florida in 2003. Due to the influence of seasonal rainfall and wind patterns on Shark River’s hydrology, samplings were made to include wet, dry and transitional (Norte) seasons. We used a flume extending from a tidal creek to a basin forest to measure vertical (vegetated soil/water column) and horizontal (mangrove forest/tidal creek) flux of DOC. We found significant (p < 0.05) variations in surface water temperature, salinity, conductivity, pH and mean concentration of DOC with season. Water temperature and salinity followed seasonal patterns of air temperature and rainfall, while mean DOC concentration was highest during the dry season (May), followed by the wet (October) and ‘Norte’ (December) seasons. This pattern of DOC concentration may be due to a combination of litter production and inundation pattern of the wetland. In contrast to daily (between tides) variation in DOC flux between the mangrove forest and tidal creek, daily variations of mean water quality were not significant. However, within-tide variation of DOC flux, dissolved oxygen content and salinity was observed. This indicated that the length of inundation and water source (freshwater vs. saltwater) variation across tidal cycles influenced water quality and DOC flux in the water column. Net DOC export was measured in October and December, suggesting the mangrove forest was a source of DOC to the adjacent tidal creek during these periods. Net annual export of DOC from the fringe mangrove to both the tidal creek and basin mangrove forest was 56 g C m−2 year−1. The seasonal pattern in our flux results indicates that DOC flux from this mangrove forest may be governed by both freshwater discharge and tidal range.

A Tale of Two Fishes: Using Recreational Angler Records to Examine the Link Between Fish Catches and Floodplain Connections in a Subtropical Coastal River

In the tropical and subtropical wet and dry regions, maintaining natural hydrologic connections between coastal rivers and adjacent ephemeral wetlands is critical to conserving and sustaining high levels of fisheries production within these systems. Though there is a consensus that there is a need to maintain these natural connections, little is known about what attributes of floodplain inundation regimes are most important in sustaining fisheries production. Two attributes of the flood season and thus floodplain inundation that may be particularly influential to fisheries are the amplitude of the flood season (floodplain water depth and spatial extent of inundation) and the duration of the flood season (i.e., time floodplains are inundated). In mangrove-dominated Everglades coastal rivers, seasonal inundation of upstream marsh floodplains may play an important role in provisioning recreational fisheries; however, this relationship remains unknown. Using two Everglades coastal river fisheries as a model, we tested whether the amplitude of the flood season or the duration of the flood season is more important in explaining variation in angler catch records of common snook and largemouth bass collected from 1992 to 2012. We validated angler catches with fisheries-independent electrofishing conducted in the same region from 2004 to 2012. Our results showed (1) that bass angler catches tracked electrofishing catches, while snook catches were completely mismatched. And (2) that previous year's marsh dynamics, particularly the duration of the flood season, was more influential than the flood season amplitude in explaining variation in bass catches, such that bass angler catches were negatively correlated to the period time that floodplains remained disconnected from coastal rivers in the previous year, while snook catches were not very well explained by floodplain inundation terms.