The benefits of a compute cluster approach to high spatial resolution biodiversity richness modelling: projecting the impact of climate change on Mediterranean flora

High spatial resolution environmental data gives us a better understanding of the environmental factors affecting plant distributions at fine spatial scales. However, large environmental datasets dramatically increase compute times and output species model size stimulating the need for an alternative computing solution. Cluster computing offers such a solution, by allowing both multiple plant species Environmental Niche Models (ENMs) and individual tiles of high spatial resolution models to be computed concurrently on the same compute cluster. We apply our methodology to a case study of 4,209 species of Mediterranean flora (around 17% of species believed present in the biome). We demonstrate a 16 times speed-up of ENM computation time when 16 CPUs were used on the compute cluster. Our custom Java ‘Merge’ and ‘Downsize’ programs reduce ENM output files sizes by 94%. The median 0.98 test AUC score of species ENMs is aided by various species occurrence data filtering techniques. Finally, by calculating the percentage change of individual grid cell values, we map the projected percentages of plant species vulnerable to climate change in the Mediterranean region between 1950–2000 and 2020.

The 6-PACK programme to decrease falls and fall-related injuries in acute hospitals : protocol for an economic evaluation alongside a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background Falls are a common hospital occurrence complicating the care of patients. From an economic perspective, the impact of in-hospital falls and related injuries is substantial. However, few studies have examined the economic implications of falls prevention interventions in an acute care setting. The 6-PACK programme is a targeted nurse delivered falls prevention programme designed specifically for acute hospital wards. It includes a risk assessment tool and six simple strategies that nurses apply to patients classified as high-risk by the tool.
Objective To examine the incremental cost-effectiveness of the 6-PACK programme for the prevention of falls and fall-related injuries, compared with usual care practice, from an acute hospital perspective.
Methods and design The 6-PACK project is a multicentre cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) that includes 24 acute medical and surgical wards from six hospitals in Australia to investigate the efficacy of the 6-PACK programme. This economic evaluation will be conducted alongside the 6-PACK cluster RCT. Outcome and hospitalisation cost data will be prospectively collected on approximately 16 000 patients admitted to the participating wards during the 12-month trial period. The results of the economic evaluation will be expressed as ‘cost or saving per fall prevented’ and ‘cost or saving per fall-related injury prevented’ calculated from differences in mean costs and effects in the intervention and control groups, to generate an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).
Discussion This economic evaluation will provide an opportunity to explore the cost-effectiveness of a targeted nurse delivered falls prevention programme for reducing in-hospital falls and fall-related injuries. This protocol provides a detailed statement of a planned economic evaluation conducted alongside a cluster RCT to investigate the efficacy of the 6-PACK programme to prevent falls and fall-related injuries.

A cluster-randomised, controlled trial to assess the impact of a workplace osteoporosis prevention intervention on the dietary and physical activity behaviours of working women: study protocol

Background Osteoporosis is a debilitating disease and its risk can be reduced through adequate calcium consumption and physical activity. This protocol paper describes a workplace-based intervention targeting behaviour change in premenopausal women working in sedentary occupations. Method/Design A cluster-randomised design was used, comparing the efficacy of a tailored intervention to standard care. Workplaces were the clusters and units of randomisation and intervention. Sample size calculations incorporated the cluster design. Final number of clusters was determined to be 16, based on a cluster size of 20 and calcium intake parameters (effect size 250 mg, ICC 0.5 and standard deviation 290 mg) as it required the highest number of clusters. Sixteen workplaces were recruited from a pool of 97 workplaces and randomly assigned to intervention and control arms (eight in each). Women meeting specified inclusion criteria were then recruited to participate. Workplaces in the intervention arm received three participatory workshops and organisation wide educational activities. Workplaces in the control/standard care arm received print resources. Intervention workshops were guided by self-efficacy theory and included participatory activities such as goal setting, problem solving, local food sampling, exercise trials, group discussion and behaviour feedback. Outcomes measures were calcium intake (milligrams/day) and physical activity level (duration: minutes/week), measured at baseline, four weeks and six months post intervention. Discussion This study addresses the current lack of evidence for behaviour change interventions focussing on osteoporosis prevention. It addresses missed opportunities of using workplaces as a platform to target high-risk individuals with sedentary occupations. The intervention was designed to modify behaviour levels to bring about risk reduction. It is the first to address dietary and physical activity components each with unique intervention strategies in the context of osteoporosis prevention. The intervention used locally relevant behavioural strategies previously shown to support good outcomes in other countries. The combination of these elements have not been incorporated in similar studies in the past, supporting the study hypothesis that the intervention will be more efficacious than standard practice in osteoporosis prevention through improvements in calcium intake and physical activity.

The efficacy of a clinician referral and 12 week physical activity program among men living with prostate cancer: a multicentre cluster randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND : The purpose of this study was to determine the efficacy of a clinician referral and exercise program in improving exercise levels and quality of life for men with prostate cancer.

METHODS : This was a multicenter cluster randomized controlled trial in Melbourne, Australia comprising 15 clinicians: 8 clinicians were randomized to refer eligible participants (n = 54) to a 12-week exercise program comprising 2 supervised gym sessions and 1 home-based session per week, and 7 clinicians were randomized to follow usual care (n = 93). The primary outcome was self-reported physical activity; the secondary outcomes were quality of life, anxiety, and symptoms of depression.

RESULTS : A significant intervention effect was observed for vigorous-intensity exercise (effect size: Cohen's d, 0.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.09-0.82; P = .010) but not for combined moderate and vigorous exercise levels (effect size: d, 0.08; 95% CI, −0.28 to 0.45; P = .48). Significant intervention effects were also observed for meeting exercise guidelines (≥150 min/wk; odds ratio, 3.9; 95% CI, 1.9-7.8; P = .002); positive intervention effects were observed in the intervention group for cognitive functioning (effect size: d, 0.34; 95% CI, −0.02 to 0.70; P = .06) and depression symptoms (effect size: d, −0.35; 95% CI, −0.71 to 0.02; P = .06). Eighty percent of participants reported that the clinician's referral influenced their decision to participate in the exercise program.

CONCLUSIONS : The clinician referral and 12-week exercise program significantly improved vigorous exercise levels and had a positive impact on mental health outcomes for men living with prostate cancer. Further research is needed to determine the sustainability of the exercise program and its generalizability to other cancer populations.

Diffusion of Lambda(c) in hot hadronic medium and its impact on Lambda(c)/D ratio

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Global pharmacogenomics: Impact of population diversity on the distribution of polymorphisms in the CYP2C cluster among Brazilians

The impact of biogeographical ancestry, self-reported 'race/color' and geographical origin on the frequency distribution of 10 CYP2C functional polymorphisms (CYP2C8*2, *3, *4, CYP2C9*2, *3, *5, *11, CYP2C19*2, *3 and *17) and their haplotypes was assessed in a representative cohort of the Brazilian population (n = 1034). TaqMan assays were used for allele discrimination at each CYP2C locus investigated. Individual proportions of European, African and Amerindian biogeographical ancestry were estimated using a panel of insertion-deletion polymorphisms. Multinomial log-linear models were applied to infer the statistical association between the CYP2C alleles and haplotypes (response variables), and biogeographical ancestry, self-reported Color and geographical origin (explanatory variables). The results showed that CYP2C19*3, CYP2C9*5 and CYP2C9*11 were rare alleles (<1%), the frequency of other variants ranged from 3.4% (CYP2C8*4) to 17.3% (CYP2C19*17). Two distinct haplotype blocks were identified: block 1 consists of three single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (CYP2C19*17, CYP2C19*2 and CYP2C9*2) and block 2 of six SNPs (CYP2C9*11, CYP2C9*3, CYP2C9*5, CYP2C8*2, CYP2C8*4 and CYP2C8*3). Diplotype analysis generated 41 haplotypes, of which eight had frequencies greater than 1% and together accounted for 96.4% of the overall genetic diversity. The distribution of CYP2C8 and CYP2C9 (but not CYP2C19) alleles, and of CYP2C haplotypes was significantly associated with self-reported Color and with the individual proportions of European and African genetic ancestry, irrespective of Color self-identification. The individual odds of having alleles CYP2C8*2, CYP2C8*3, CYP2C9*2 and CYP2C9*3, and haplotypes including these alleles, varied continuously as the proportion of European ancestry increased. Collectively, these data strongly suggest that the intrinsic heterogeneity of the Brazilian population must be acknowledged in the design and interpretation of pharmacogenomic studies of the CYP2C cluster in order to avoid spurious conclusions based on improper matching of study cohorts. This conclusion extends to other polymorphic pharmacogenes among Brazilians, and most likely to other admixed populations of the Americas. The Pharmacogenomics Journal (2012) 12, 267-276; doi: 10.1038/tpj.2010.89; published online 21 December 2010

Prognostic impact of lymph node ratio outperforms positive lymph nodes and lymph nodes harvested: a time-dependent analysis in mismatch repair-proficient and –deficient colrectal cancers

Objective: We compare the prognostic strength of the lymph node ratio (LNR), positive lymph nodes (+LNs) and collected lymph nodes (LNcoll) using a time-dependent analysis in colorectal cancer patients stratified by mismatch repair (MMR) status. Method: 580 stage III-IV patients were included. Multivariable Cox regression analysis and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (tROC) curve analysis were performed. The Area under the Curve (AUC) over time was compared for the three features. Results were validated on a second cohort of 105 stage III-IV patients. Results: The AUC for the LNR was 0.71 and outperformed + LNs and LNcoll by 10–15 % in both MMR-proficient and deficient cancers. LNR and + LNs were both significant (p<0.0001) in multivariable analysis but the effect was considerably stronger for the LNR [LNR: HR=5.18 (95 % CI: 3.5–7.6); +LNs=1.06 (95 % CI: 1.04–1.08)]. Similar results were obtained for patients with >12 LNcoll. An optimal cut off score for LNR=0.231 was validated on the second cohort (p<0.001). Conclusion: The LNR outperforms the + LNs and LNcoll even in patients with >12 LNcoll. Its clinical value is not confounded by MMR status. A cut-of score of 0.231 may best stratify patients into prognostic subgroups and could be a basis for the future prospective analysis of the LNR.

Multi-parametric classification of Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment: the impact of quantitative magnetization transfer MR imaging

Multi-parametric and quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) techniques have come into the focus of interest, both as a research and diagnostic modality for the evaluation of patients suffering from mild cognitive decline and overt dementia. In this study we address the question, if disease related quantitative magnetization transfer effects (qMT) within the intra- and extracellular matrices of the hippocampus may aid in the differentiation between clinically diagnosed patients with Alzheimer disease (AD), patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and healthy controls. We evaluated 22 patients with AD (n=12) and MCI (n=10) and 22 healthy elderly (n=12) and younger (n=10) controls with multi-parametric MRI. Neuropsychological testing was performed in patients and elderly controls (n=34). In order to quantify the qMT effects, the absorption spectrum was sampled at relevant off-resonance frequencies. The qMT-parameters were calculated according to a two-pool spin-bath model including the T1- and T2 relaxation parameters of the free pool, determined in separate experiments. Histograms (fixed bin-size) of the normalized qMT-parameter values (z-scores) within the anterior and posterior hippocampus (hippocampal head and body) were subjected to a fuzzy-c-means classification algorithm with downstreamed PCA projection. The within-cluster sums of point-to-centroid distances were used to examine the effects of qMT- and diffusion anisotropy parameters on the discrimination of healthy volunteers, patients with Alzheimer and MCIs. The qMT-parameters T2(r) (T2 of the restricted pool) and F (fractional pool size) differentiated between the three groups (control, MCI and AD) in the anterior hippocampus. In our cohort, the MT ratio, as proposed in previous reports, did not differentiate between MCI and AD or healthy controls and MCI, but between healthy controls and AD.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN COLUMN DENSITY AND SURFACE MIXING RATIO FOR O3 AND NO2: IMPLICATIONS FOR SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND THE IMPACTS OF VERTICAL MIXING

Satellites have great potential for diagnosis of surface air quality conditions, though reduced sensitivity of satellite instrumentation to the lower troposphere currently impedes their applicability. One objective of the NASA DISCOVER-AQ project is to provide information relevant to improving our ability to relate satellite-observed columns to surface conditions for key trace gases and aerosols. In support of DISCOVER-AQ, this dissertation investigates the degree of correlation between O3 and NO2 column abundance and surface mixing ratio during the four DISCOVER-AQ deployments; characterize the variability of the aircraft in situ and model-simulated O3 and NO2 profiles; and use the WRF-Chem model to further investigate the role of boundary layer mixing in the column-surface connection for the Maryland 2011 deployment, and determine which of the available boundary layer schemes best captures the observations. Simple linear regression analyses suggest that O3 partial column observations from future satellite instruments with sufficient sensitivity to the lower troposphere may be most meaningful for surface air quality under the conditions associated with the Maryland 2011 campaign, which included generally deep, convective boundary layers, the least wind shear of all four deployments, and few geographical influences on local meteorology, with exception of bay breezes. Hierarchical clustering analysis of the in situ O3 and NO2 profiles indicate that the degree of vertical mixing (defined by temperature lapse rate) associated with each cluster exerted an important influence on the shapes of the median cluster profiles for O3, as well as impacted the column vs. surface correlations for many clusters for both O3 and NO2. However, comparisons to the CMAQ model suggest that, among other errors, vertical mixing is overestimated, causing too great a column-surface connection within the model. Finally, the WRF-Chem model, a meteorology model with coupled chemistry, is used to further investigate the impact of vertical mixing on the O3 and NO2 column-surface connection, for an ozone pollution event that occurred on July 26-29, 2011. Five PBL schemes were tested, with no one scheme producing a clear, consistent “best” comparison with the observations for PBLH and pollutant profiles; however, despite improvements, the ACM2 scheme continues to overestimate vertical mixing.

A cluster randomized controlled trial to reduce office workers' sitting time: impact on activity outcomes

PURPOSE: To evaluate, compared to usual practice, the initial and long-term effectiveness of a workplace intervention targeting reducing sitting on activity outcomes.

METHODS: Office worksites (≥1km apart) from a single organization in Victoria, Australia were cluster randomized to intervention (n=7) or control (n=7). Participants were 231 desk-based office workers (5 to 39 participants per worksite) working at least 0.6 full time equivalent. The workplace-delivered intervention addressed organizational, physical environment, and individual behavioural change to reduce sitting time. Assessments occurred at baseline, three-, and 12-months, with the primary outcome participants' objectively measured (activPAL3 device) workplace sitting time (mins/8-h workday). Secondary activity outcomes were: workplace time spent standing, stepping (light, moderate-vigorous and total) and in prolonged (≥30min) sitting bouts (h/8-h workday); usual duration of workplace sitting bouts; and, overall sitting, standing and stepping time (mins/16-h day). Analysis was by linear mixed models, accounting for repeated measures and clustering and adjusting for baseline values and potential confounders.

RESULTS: At baseline, on average, participants (68% women; mean±SD age = 45.6±9.4 years) sat, stood and stepped for 78.8±9.5%, 14.3±8.2%, and 6.9±2.9% of work hours respectively. Workplace sitting time was significantly reduced in the intervention group compared to the controls at three months (-99.1 [95% CI -116.3 to -81.8] min/8-h workday) and 12 months (-45.4 [-64.6 to -26.2] min/8-h workday). Significant intervention effects (all favoring intervention) were observed for standing, prolonged sitting, and usual sitting bout duration at work, as well as overall sitting and standing time, with no significant nor meaningful effects observed for stepping.

CONCLUSIONS: This workplace-delivered multicomponent intervention was successful at reducing workplace and overall daily sitting time in both the short- and long- term.

Assessing the sustained impact of a school-based obesity prevention program for adolescent boys: the ATLAS cluster randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Obesity prevention interventions targeting 'at-risk' adolescents are urgently needed. The aim of this study is to evaluate the sustained impact of the 'Active Teen Leaders Avoiding Screen-time' (ATLAS) obesity prevention program.

METHODS: Cluster RCT in 14 secondary schools in low-income communities of New South Wales, Australia. Participants were 361 adolescent boys (aged 12-14 years) 'at risk' of obesity. The intervention was based on Self-Determination Theory and Social Cognitive Theory and involved: professional development, fitness equipment for schools, teacher-delivered physical activity sessions, lunch-time activity sessions, researcher-led seminars, a smartphone application, and parental strategies. Assessments for the primary (body mass index [BMI], waist circumference) and secondary outcomes were conducted at baseline, 8- (post-intervention) and 18-months (follow-up). Analyses followed the intention-to-treat principle using linear mixed models.

RESULTS: After 18-months, there were no intervention effects for BMI or waist circumference. Sustained effects were found for screen-time, resistance training skill competency, and motivational regulations for school sport.

CONCLUSIONS: There were no clinically meaningful intervention effects for the adiposity outcomes. However, the intervention resulted in sustained effects for secondary outcomes. Interventions that more intensively target the home environment, as well as other socio-ecological determinants of obesity may be needed to prevent unhealthy weight gain in adolescents from low-income communities.

Impact response and parametric studies of reinforced concrete circular columns

This paper presents a detailed description of the influence of critical parameters that govern the vulnerability of columns under lateral impact loads. Numerical simulations are conducted by using the Finite Element program LS-DYNA, incorporating steel reinforcement, material models and strain rate effects. A simplified method based on impact pulse generated from full scale impact tests is used for impact reconstruction and effects of the various pulse loading parameters are investigated under low to medium velocity impacts. A constitutive material model which can simulate failures under tri-axial state of stresses is used for concrete. Confinement effects are also introduced to the numerical simulation and columns of Grade 30 to 50 concrete under pure axial loading are analysed in detail. This research confirmed that the vulnerability of the axially loaded columns can be mitigated by reducing the slenderness ratio and concrete grade, and by choosing the design option with a minimal amount of longitudinal steel. Additionally, it is evident that approximately a 50% increase in impact capacity can be gained for columns in medium rise buildings by enhancing the confinement effects alone. Results also indicated that the ductility as well as the mode of failure under impact can be changed with the volumetric ratio of lateral steel. Moreover, to increase the impact capacity of the vulnerable columns, a higher confining stress is required. The general provisions of current design codes do not sufficiently cover this aspect and hence this research will provide additional guidelines to overcome the inadequacies of code provisions.

Impact and energy absorption of empty and foam-filled conical tubes

Foam-filled conical tubes have recently emerged as efficient energy absorbing devices to mitigate the adverse effects of impacts. The primary aim of this thesis was to generate research and design information on the impact and energy absorption response of empty and foam-filled conical tubes, and to facilitate their application in energy absorbing systems under axial and oblique loading conditions representative of those typically encountered in crashworthiness and impact applications. Finite element techniques supported by experiments and existing results were used in the investigation. Major findings show that the energy absorption response can be effectively controlled by varying geometry and material parameters. A useful empirical formula was developed for providing engineering designers with an initial estimate of the load ratio and hence energy absorption performances of these devices. It was evident that foam-filled conical tubes enhance the energy absorption capacity and stabilise the crush response for both axial and oblique impact loading without a significant increase in the initial peak load. This is practically beneficial when higher kinetic energy needs to be absorbed, thus reducing the impact force transmitted to the protected structure and occupants. Such tubes also increase and maintain the energy absorption capacity under global bending as well as minimise the reduction of energy absorption capacity with increasing load angle. Furthermore, the results also highlight the feasibility of adding a foam-filled conical tube as a supplementary device in energy absorbing systems, since the overall energy absorption performance of such systems can be favourably enhanced by only including a relatively small energy absorbing device. Above all, the results demonstrate the superior performance of foam-filled conical tube for mitigating impact energy in impact and crashworthiness applications.

Knowledge and attitudes about Vitamin D and impact on sun protection practices among urban office workers in Brisbane, Australia

Background: Sun exposure is the main source of vitamin D. Increasing scientific and media attention to the potential health benefits of sun exposure may lead to changes in sun exposure behaviors. Methods: To provide data that might help frame public health messages, we conducted an online survey among office workers in Brisbane, Australia, to determine knowledge and attitudes about vitamin D and associations of these with sun protection practices. Of the 4,709 people invited to participate, 2,867 (61%) completed the questionnaire. This analysis included 1,971 (69%) participants who indicated that they had heard about vitamin D. Results: Lack of knowledge about vitamin D was apparent. Eighteen percent of people were unaware of the bone benefits of vitamin D but 40% listed currently unconfirmed benefits. Over half of the participants indicated that more than 10 minutes in the sun was needed to attain enough vitamin D in summer, and 28% indicated more than 20 minutes in winter. This was significantly associated with increased time outdoors and decreased sunscreen use. People believing sun protection might cause vitamin D deficiency (11%) were less likely to be frequent sunscreen users (summer odds ratio, 0.63; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.75). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that there is some confusion about sun exposure and vitamin D, and that this may result in reduced sun-protective behavior. Impact: More information is needed about vitamin D production in the skin. In the interim, education campaigns need to specifically address the vitamin D issue to ensure that skin cancer incidence does not increase.

Impact of traffic oscillations on freeway crash occurrences

Traffic oscillations are typical features of congested traffic flow that are characterized by recurring decelerations followed by accelerations (stop-and-go driving). The negative environmental impacts of these oscillations are widely accepted, but their impact on traffic safety has been debated. This paper describes the impact of freeway traffic oscillations on traffic safety. This study employs a matched case-control design using high-resolution traffic and crash data from a freeway segment. Traffic conditions prior to each crash were taken as cases, while traffic conditions during the same periods on days without crashes were taken as controls. These were also matched by presence of congestion, geometry and weather. A total of 82 cases and about 80,000 candidate controls were extracted from more than three years of data from 2004 to 2007. Conditional logistic regression models were developed based on the case-control samples. To verify consistency in the results, 20 different sets of controls were randomly extracted from the candidate pool for varying control-case ratios. The results reveal that the standard deviation of speed (thus, oscillations) is a significant variable, with an average odds ratio of about 1.08. This implies that the likelihood of a (rear-end) crash increases by about 8% with an additional unit increase in the standard deviation of speed. The average traffic states prior to crashes were less significant than the speed variations in congestion.