Automated prediction of deterioration of infants in paediatric intensive care using SpO2

Acute life-threatening events are mostly predictable in adults and children. Despite real-time monitoring these events still occur at a rate of 4%. This paper describes an automated prediction system based on the feature space embedding and time series forecasting methods of the SpO2 signal; a pulsatile signal synchronised with heart beat. We develop an age-independent index of abnormality that distinguishes patient-specific normal to abnormal physiology transitions. Two different methods were used to distinguish between normal and abnormal physiological trends based on SpO2 behaviour. The abnormality index derived by each method is compared against the current gold standard of clinical prediction of critical deterioration. Copyright © 2013 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Soveltuvuuskokeella täydennetty opiskelijavalinta : Seurantatutkimus eräiden sosiaali- ja terveysalan teknisluonteisten koulutusohjelmien (apuvälinetekniikka, hammastekniikka ja optometria) opiskelijavalinnan toteuttamisesta

Aptitude-based student selection: A study concerning the admission processes of some technically oriented healthcare degree programmes in Finland (Orthotics and Prosthetics, Dental Technology and Optometry). The data studied consisted of conveniencesamples of preadmission information and the results of the admission processes of three technically oriented healthcare degree programmes (Orthotics and Prosthetics, Dental Technology and Optometry) in Finland during the years 1977-1986 and 2003. The number of the subjects tested and interviewed in the first samples was 191, 615 and 606, and in the second 67, 64 and 89, respectively. The questions of the six studies were: I. How were different kinds of preadmission data related to each other? II. Which were the major determinants of the admission decisions? III. Did the graduated students and those who dropped out differ from each other? IV. Was it possible to predict how well students would perform in the programmes? V. How was the student selection executed in the year 2003? VI. Should clinical vs. statistical prediction or both be used? (Some remarks are presented on Meehl's argument: "Always, we might as well face it, the shadow of the statistician hovers in the background; always the actuary will have the final word.") The main results of the study were as follows: Ability tests, dexterity tests and judgements of personality traits (communication skills, initiative, stress tolerance and motivation) provided unique, non-redundant information about the applicants. Available demographic variables did not bias the judgements of personality traits. In all three programme settings, four-factor solutions (personality, reasoning, gender-technical and age-vocational with factor scores) could be extracted by the Maximum Likelihood method with graphical Varimax rotation. The personality factor dominated the final aptitude judgements and very strongly affected the selection decisions. There were no clear differences between graduated students and those who had dropped out in regard to the four factors. In addition, the factor scores did not predict how well the students performed in the programmes. Meehl's argument on the uncertainty of clinical prediction was supported by the results, which on the other hand did not provide any relevant data for rules on statistical prediction. No clear arguments for or against the aptitude-based student selection was presented. However, the structure of the aptitude measures and their impact on the admission process are now better known. The concept of "personal aptitude" is not necessarily included in the values and preferences of those in charge of organizing the schooling. Thus, obviously the most well-founded and cost-effective way to execute student selection is to rely on e.g. the grade point averages of the matriculation examination and/or written entrance exams. This procedure, according to the present study, would result in a student group which has a quite different makeup (60%) from the group selected on the basis of aptitude tests. For the recruiting organizations, instead, "personal aptitude" may be a matter of great importance. The employers, of course, decide on personnel selection. The psychologists, if consulted, are responsible for the proper use of psychological measures.

Predictive score for mortality in patients with COPD exacerbations attending hospital emergency departments

Background: Limited information is available about predictors of short-term outcomes in patients with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (eCOPD) attending an emergency department (ED). Such information could help stratify these patients and guide medical decision-making. The aim of this study was to develop a clinical prediction rule for short-term mortality during hospital admission or within a week after the index ED visit. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study of patients with eCOPD attending the EDs of 16 participating hospitals. Recruitment started in June 2008 and ended in September 2010. Information on possible predictor variables was recorded during the time the patient was evaluated in the ED, at the time a decision was made to admit the patient to the hospital or discharge home, and during follow-up. Main short-term outcomes were death during hospital admission or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED, as well as at death within 1 month of the index ED visit. Multivariate logistic regression models were developed in a derivation sample and validated in a validation sample. The score was compared with other published prediction rules for patients with stable COPD. Results: In total, 2,487 patients were included in the study. Predictors of death during hospital admission, or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED were patient age, baseline dyspnea, previous need for long-term home oxygen therapy or non-invasive mechanical ventilation, altered mental status, and use of inspiratory accessory muscles or paradoxical breathing upon ED arrival (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.85). Addition of arterial blood gas parameters (oxygen and carbon dioxide partial pressures (PO2 and PCO2)) and pH) did not improve the model. The same variables were predictors of death at 1 month (AUC = 0.85). Compared with other commonly used tools for predicting the severity of COPD in stable patients, our rule was significantly better. Conclusions: Five clinical predictors easily available in the ED, and also in the primary care setting, can be used to create a simple and easily obtained score that allows clinicians to stratify patients with eCOPD upon ED arrival and guide the medical decision-making process.

Preoperative radial artery volume flow is predictive of arteriovenous fistula outcomes

Objective: Guidelines recommend the creation of a wrist radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula (RAVF) as initial hemodialysis vascular access. This study explored the potential of preoperative ultrasound vessel measurements to predict AVF failure to mature (FTM) in a cohort of patients with end-stage renal disease in Northern Ireland

.Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed of all patients who had preoperative ultrasound mapping of upper limb blood vessels carried out from August 2011 to December 2014 and whose AVF reached a functional outcome by March 2015.

Results: There were 152 patients (97% white) who had ultrasound mapping andan AVF functional outcome recorded; 80 (54%) had an upper arm AVF created, and 69 (46%) had a RAVF formed. Logistic regression revealed that female gender (odds ratio [OR], 2.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-5.55; P = .025), minimum venous diameter (OR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.39-0.95; P = .029), and RAVF (OR, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.18-0.89; P = .026) were associated with FTM. On subgroup analysis of the RAVF group, RAVFs with an arterial volume flow <50 mL/min were seven times as likely to fail as RAVFs with higher volume flows (OR, 7.0; 95% CI, 2.35-20.87; P < .001).

Conclusions: In this cohort, a radial artery flow rate <50 mL/min was associated with a sevenfold increased risk of FTM in RAVF, which to our knowledge has not been previously reported in the literature. Preoperative ultrasound mapping adds objective assessment in the clinical prediction of AVF FTM.

Scores to predict major bleeding risk during oral anticoagulation therapy: a prospective validation study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical scores may help physicians to better assess the individual risk/benefit of oral anticoagulant therapy. We aimed to externally validate and compare the prognostic performance of 7 clinical prediction scores for major bleeding events during oral anticoagulation therapy. METHODS: We followed 515 adult patients taking oral anticoagulants to measure the first major bleeding event over a 12-month follow-up period. The performance of each score to predict the risk of major bleeding and the physician's subjective assessment of bleeding risk were compared with the C statistic. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of a first major bleeding event during follow-up was 6.8% (35/515). According to the 7 scoring systems, the proportions of major bleeding ranged from 3.0% to 5.7% for low-risk, 6.7% to 9.9% for intermediate-risk, and 7.4% to 15.4% for high-risk patients. The overall predictive accuracy of the scores was poor, with the C statistic ranging from 0.54 to 0.61 and not significantly different from each other (P=.84). Only the Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation score performed slightly better than would be expected by chance (C statistic, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.70). The performance of the scores was not statistically better than physicians' subjective risk assessments (C statistic, 0.55; P=.94). CONCLUSION: The performance of 7 clinical scoring systems in predicting major bleeding events in patients receiving oral anticoagulation therapy was poor and not better than physicians' subjective assessments.

Low statin use in adults hospitalized with acute coronary syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: To assess recommended and actual use of statins in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) based on clinical prediction scores in adults who develop their first acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHOD: Cross-sectional study of 3172 adults without previous CVD hospitalized with ACS at 4 university centers in Switzerland. The number of participants eligible for statins before hospitalization was estimated based on the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines and compared to the observed number of participants on statins at hospital entry. RESULTS: Overall, 1171 (37%) participants were classified as high-risk (10-year risk of cardiovascular mortality ≥5% or diabetes); 1025 (32%) as intermediate risk (10-year risk <5% but ≥1%); and 976 (31%) as low risk (10-year risk <1%). Before hospitalization, 516 (16%) were on statins; among high-risk participants, only 236 of 1171 (20%) were on statins. If ESC primary prevention guidelines had been fully implemented, an additional 845 high-risk adults (27% of the whole sample) would have been eligible for statins before hospitalization. CONCLUSION: Although statins are recommended for primary prevention in high-risk adults, only one-fifth of them are on statins when hospitalized for a first ACS.

L'élastographie ultrasonore dynamique vasculaire : une nouvelle modalité d'imagerie non-invasive pour la caractérisation mécanique de la thrombose veineuse

L’accident thromboembolique veineux, tel que la thrombose veineuse profonde (TVP) ou thrombophlébite des membres inférieurs, est une pathologie vasculaire caractérisée par la formation d’un caillot sanguin causant une obstruction partielle ou totale de la lumière sanguine. Les embolies pulmonaires sont une complication mortelle des TVP qui surviennent lorsque le caillot se détache, circule dans le sang et produit une obstruction de la ramification artérielle irriguant les poumons. La combinaison d’outils et de techniques d’imagerie cliniques tels que les règles de prédiction cliniques (signes et symptômes) et les tests sanguins (D-dimères) complémentés par un examen ultrasonographique veineux (test de compression, écho-Doppler), permet de diagnostiquer les premiers épisodes de TVP. Cependant, la performance de ces outils diagnostiques reste très faible pour la détection de TVP récurrentes. Afin de diriger le patient vers une thérapie optimale, la problématique n’est plus basée sur la détection de la thrombose mais plutôt sur l’évaluation de la maturité et de l’âge du thrombus, paramètres qui sont directement corrélées à ses propriétés mécaniques (e.g. élasticité, viscosité). L’élastographie dynamique (ED) a récemment été proposée comme une nouvelle modalité d’imagerie non-invasive capable de caractériser quantitativement les propriétés mécaniques de tissus. L’ED est basée sur l’analyse des paramètres acoustiques (i.e. vitesse, atténuation, pattern de distribution) d’ondes de cisaillement basses fréquences (10-7000 Hz) se propageant dans le milieu sondé. Ces ondes de cisaillement générées par vibration externe, ou par source interne à l’aide de la focalisation de faisceaux ultrasonores (force de radiation), sont mesurées par imagerie ultrasonore ultra-rapide ou par résonance magnétique. Une méthode basée sur l’ED adaptée à la caractérisation mécanique de thromboses veineuses permettrait de quantifier la sévérité de cette pathologie à des fins d’amélioration diagnostique. Cette thèse présente un ensemble de travaux reliés au développement et à la validation complète et rigoureuse d’une nouvelle technique d’imagerie non-invasive élastographique pour la mesure quantitative des propriétés mécaniques de thromboses veineuses. L’atteinte de cet objectif principal nécessite une première étape visant à améliorer les connaissances sur le comportement mécanique du caillot sanguin (sang coagulé) soumis à une sollicitation dynamique telle qu’en ED. Les modules de conservation (comportement élastique, G’) et de perte (comportement visqueux, G’’) en cisaillement de caillots sanguins porcins sont mesurés par ED lors de la cascade de coagulation (à 70 Hz), et après coagulation complète (entre 50 Hz et 160 Hz). Ces résultats constituent les toutes premières mesures du comportement dynamique de caillots sanguins dans une gamme fréquentielle aussi étendue. L’étape subséquente consiste à mettre en place un instrument innovant de référence (« gold standard »), appelé RheoSpectris, dédié à la mesure de la viscoélasticité hyper-fréquence (entre 10 Hz et 1000 Hz) des matériaux et biomatériaux. Cet outil est indispensable pour valider et calibrer toute nouvelle technique d’élastographie dynamique. Une étude comparative entre RheoSpectris et la rhéométrie classique est réalisée afin de valider des mesures faites sur différents matériaux (silicone, thermoplastique, biomatériaux, gel). L’excellente concordance entre les deux technologies permet de conclure que RheoSpectris est un instrument fiable pour la mesure mécanique à des fréquences difficilement accessibles par les outils actuels. Les bases théoriques d’une nouvelle modalité d’imagerie élastographique, nommée SWIRE (« shear wave induced resonance dynamic elastography »), sont présentées et validées sur des fantômes vasculaires. Cette approche permet de caractériser les propriétés mécaniques d’une inclusion confinée (e.g. caillot sanguin) à partir de sa résonance (amplification du déplacement) produite par la propagation d’ondes de cisaillement judicieusement orientées. SWIRE a également l’avantage d’amplifier l’amplitude de vibration à l’intérieur de l’hétérogénéité afin de faciliter sa détection et sa segmentation. Finalement, la méthode DVT-SWIRE (« Deep venous thrombosis – SWIRE ») est adaptée à la caractérisation de l’élasticité quantitative de thromboses veineuses pour une utilisation en clinique. Cette méthode exploite la première fréquence de résonance mesurée dans la thrombose lors de la propagation d’ondes de cisaillement planes (vibration d’une plaque externe) ou cylindriques (simulation de la force de radiation par génération supersonique). DVT-SWIRE est appliquée sur des fantômes simulant une TVP et les résultats sont comparés à ceux donnés par l’instrument de référence RheoSpectris. Cette méthode est également utilisée avec succès dans une étude ex vivo pour l’évaluation de l’élasticité de thromboses porcines explantées après avoir été induites in vivo par chirurgie.

Perfil de pacientes de uci neonatal con bronquiolitis en institución de cuarto nivel en Bogotá 2011

Introducción: La bronquiolitis se ha convertido en una patología de alta relevancia clínica y de salud pública, de la cual se han realizado múltiples estudios en cuanto a tratamiento y diagnóstico; Identificar el perfil de los pacientes que presentan esta patología en nuestra población justifica el profundizar en su conocimiento y contexto a nivel local. Metodología: Se realizó un estudio observacional descriptivo de serie de casos. Muestreo consecutivo o secuencial de pacientes con bronquiolitis que cumplieron los criterios de selección, durante el 2011. La información se analizó en SPSS. Se realizó un análisis descriptivo y análisis para determinar la posible asociación entre las variables. Resultados: El total de pacientes en el estudio fue 92. Se encontraron una serie de características comunes, discriminadas en dos grupos, características sociodemográficas de los pacientes y sus padres y características o manifestaciones clínicas de los pacientes, al ingreso, durante y al egreso de su hospitalización. Discusión: Las características sociodemográficas que identifican a los pacientes que presentan bronquiolitis pueden ser determinantes, como pertenecer a población vulnerable, como los pacientes recién nacidos, o lactantes menores; pertenecer a una comunidad en la cual haya presencia de niños en edad escolar. Conclusiones: Los pacientes con riesgo de presentar bronquiolitis, para este estudio, son lactantes menores y recién nacidos; hijos de padres profesionales, y bachilleres, y provenientes de la ciudad de Bogotá. A nivel socio demográfico se encontró que convivir con personas fumadoras y niños en edad escolar no mostró una diferencia en la distribución porcentual de estas variables.

Validación diagnóstica del test neural 1 para el síndrome de túnel del carpo

El objetivo de este estudio fue realizar una prueba de validez diagnostica del test neural 1 para el diagnóstico del Síndrome de Túnel del Carpo (STC) utilizando como prueba de referencia o de oro el test de conducción nerviosa. En este estudio participaron 115 sujetos, 230 manos con sospecha clínica de STC quienes fueron evaluados con el test de conducción nerviosa y el test neural 1. Se encontró una sensibilidad del 93.0% (IC 95%:88,21-96,79) y una especificidad del 6,67% (IC 95%:0,0-33,59), razón de verosimilitud positiva fue de 1,00 y razón de verosimilitud negativa de 1,05. Valor predictivo positivo de 86,9% y un valor predictivo negativo de 12,5%. Se concluye que el test neural 1 es una prueba clínica de alta sensibilidad y baja especificidad de gran utilidad para el monitoreo e identificación del STC. Es un procedimiento para el diagnóstico clínico de bajo costo que puede incluirse en los exámenes de rutina de los trabajadores como complemento a las pruebas clínicas sugeridas por las Gatiso para dar mayor precisión a la identificación temprana del STC. Se sugiere combinarla con otros test de mayor especificidad para ser aplicada en trabajadores en condiciones de riesgo o que presenten síntomas en miembros superiores y realizar otros estudios en donde participen sujetos sin diagnóstico clínico del STC.

Stabilizing sparse cox model using statistic and semantic structures in electronic medical records

Stability in clinical prediction models is crucial for transferability between studies, yet has received little attention. The problem is paramount in high dimensional data, which invites sparse models with feature selection capability. We introduce an effective method to stabilize sparse Cox model of time-to-events using statistical and semantic structures inherent in Electronic Medical Records (EMR). Model estimation is stabilized using three feature graphs built from (i) Jaccard similarity among features (ii) aggregation of Jaccard similarity graph and a recently introduced semantic EMR graph (iii) Jaccard similarity among features transferred from a related cohort. Our experiments are conducted on two real world hospital datasets: a heart failure cohort and a diabetes cohort. On two stability measures – the Consistency index and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) – the use of our proposed methods significantly increased feature stability when compared with the baselines.

Logistic regression analysis of potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism

Objective: To identify potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE), establishing a mathematical model to predict the risk for fatal PTE and nonfatal PTE.Method: the reports on 4,813 consecutive autopsies performed from 1979 to 1998 in a Brazilian tertiary referral medical school were reviewed for a retrospective study. From the medical records and autopsy reports of the 512 patients found with macroscopically and/or microscopically,documented PTE, data on demographics, underlying diseases, and probable PTE site of origin were gathered and studied by multiple logistic regression. Thereafter, the jackknife method, a statistical cross-validation technique that uses the original study patients to validate a clinical prediction rule, was performed.Results: the autopsy rate was 50.2%, and PTE prevalence was 10.6%. In 212 cases, PTE was the main cause of death (fatal PTE). The independent variables selected by the regression significance criteria that were more likely to be associated with fatal PTE were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.03), trauma (OR, 8.5; 95% CI, 2.20 to 32.81), right-sided cardiac thrombi (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.02 to 3.77), pelvic vein thrombi (OR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.19 to 10.05); those most likely to be associated with nonfatal PTE were systemic arterial hypertension (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.80), pneumonia (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.71), and sepsis (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.40). The results obtained from the application of the equation in the 512 cases studied using logistic regression analysis suggest the range in which logit p > 0.336 favors the occurrence of fatal PTE, logit p < - 1.142 favors nonfatal PTE, and logit P with intermediate values is not conclusive. The cross-validation prediction misclassification rate was 25.6%, meaning that the prediction equation correctly classified the majority of the cases (74.4%).Conclusions: Although the usefulness of this method in everyday medical practice needs to be confirmed by a prospective study, for the time being our results suggest that concerning prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of PTE, strict attention should be given to those patients presenting the variables that are significant in the logistic regression model.

Abordagem diagnóstica dos pacientes com suspeita de trombose venosa profunda dos membros inferiores

Deep venous thrombosis is a relatively common disease, which can present pulmonary embolism as a complication in its acute phase, and later the post-thrombotic syndrome. Thus, diagnosis should be made as soon as possible, in order to prevent or minimize such complications. Several studies have shown that the symptoms and the clinical signs are inaccurate for the deep venous thrombosis diagnosis and that complementary exams are necessary. As an attempt to simplify the patients' assessment, Well et al., in 1997, developed a clinical prediction index that combines symptoms, signs and risk factors for deep venous thrombosis and managed to make a simpler approach through an association of this index with the complementary exams. Phlebography has been considered the gold standard of complementary exams. However, since it is an invasive exam and thus subject to complications, other diagnostic methods were introduced aiming at making the diagnostic approach simpler and less invasive. Doppler ultrasound, duplex scan, impedance plethysmography, computed tomography, and blood tests such as the D-dimer are some of the available methods for assessing the patient with suspicion of deep venous thrombosis. Among them, duplex scan has shown excellent accuracy and it is currently widely accepted as the first choice test for approaching the patient with deep venous thrombosis. Several authors have suggested an association of diagnostic methods to simplify and make the assessment of such patients more cost-effective, leading to the introduction of a wide range of diagnostic strategies. The different diagnostic methods used for assessing deep venous thrombosis are discussed, as well as a review of the literature on the accuracy, advantages and disadvantages of these methods. Copyright © 2005 by Sociedade Brasileira de Angiologia e Cirurgia Vascular.

Scores to predict major bleeding risk during oral anticoagulation therapy: a prospective validation study

Clinical scores may help physicians to better assess the individual risk/benefit of oral anticoagulant therapy. We aimed to externally validate and compare the prognostic performance of 7 clinical prediction scores for major bleeding events during oral anticoagulation therapy.

Individual patient data meta-analysis of diagnostic and prognostic studies in obstetrics, gynaecology and reproductive medicine

BACKGROUND: In clinical practice a diagnosis is based on a combination of clinical history, physical examination and additional diagnostic tests. At present, studies on diagnostic research often report the accuracy of tests without taking into account the information already known from history and examination. Due to this lack of information, together with variations in design and quality of studies, conventional meta-analyses based on these studies will not show the accuracy of the tests in real practice. By using individual patient data (IPD) to perform meta-analyses, the accuracy of tests can be assessed in relation to other patient characteristics and allows the development or evaluation of diagnostic algorithms for individual patients. In this study we will examine these potential benefits in four clinical diagnostic problems in the field of gynaecology, obstetrics and reproductive medicine. METHODS/DESIGN: Based on earlier systematic reviews for each of the four clinical problems, studies are considered for inclusion. The first authors of the included studies will be invited to participate and share their original data. After assessment of validity and completeness the acquired datasets are merged. Based on these data, a series of analyses will be performed, including a systematic comparison of the results of the IPD meta-analysis with those of a conventional meta-analysis, development of multivariable models for clinical history alone and for the combination of history, physical examination and relevant diagnostic tests and development of clinical prediction rules for the individual patients. These will be made accessible for clinicians. DISCUSSION: The use of IPD meta-analysis will allow evaluating accuracy of diagnostic tests in relation to other relevant information. Ultimately, this could increase the efficiency of the diagnostic work-up, e.g. by reducing the need for invasive tests and/or improving the accuracy of the diagnostic workup. This study will assess whether these benefits of IPD meta-analysis over conventional meta-analysis can be exploited and will provide a framework for future IPD meta-analyses in diagnostic and prognostic research.

Low statin use in adults hospitalized with acute coronary syndrome.

OBJECTIVE To assess recommended and actual use of statins in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) based on clinical prediction scores in adults who develop their first acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHOD Cross-sectional study of 3172 adults without previous CVD hospitalized with ACS at 4 university centers in Switzerland. The number of participants eligible for statins before hospitalization was estimated based on the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines and compared to the observed number of participants on statins at hospital entry. RESULTS Overall, 1171 (37%) participants were classified as high-risk (10-year risk of cardiovascular mortality ≥5% or diabetes); 1025 (32%) as intermediate risk (10-year risk <5% but ≥1%); and 976 (31%) as low risk (10-year risk <1%). Before hospitalization, 516 (16%) were on statins; among high-risk participants, only 236 of 1171 (20%) were on statins. If ESC primary prevention guidelines had been fully implemented, an additional 845 high-risk adults (27% of the whole sample) would have been eligible for statins before hospitalization. CONCLUSION Although statins are recommended for primary prevention in high-risk adults, only one-fifth of them are on statins when hospitalized for a first ACS.