Semiparametric Theory for Causal Mediation Analysis: efficiency bounds, multiple robustness, and sensitivity analysis

Whilst estimation of the marginal (total) causal effect of a point exposure on an outcome is arguably the most common objective of experimental and observational studies in the health and social sciences, in recent years, investigators have also become increasingly interested in mediation analysis. Specifically, upon establishing a non-null total effect of the exposure, investigators routinely wish to make inferences about the direct (indirect) pathway of the effect of the exposure not through (through) a mediator variable that occurs subsequently to the exposure and prior to the outcome. Although powerful semiparametric methodologies have been developed to analyze observational studies, that produce double robust and highly efficient estimates of the marginal total causal effect, similar methods for mediation analysis are currently lacking. Thus, this paper develops a general semiparametric framework for obtaining inferences about so-called marginal natural direct and indirect causal effects, while appropriately accounting for a large number of pre-exposure confounding factors for the exposure and the mediator variables. Our analytic framework is particularly appealing, because it gives new insights on issues of efficiency and robustness in the context of mediation analysis. In particular, we propose new multiply robust locally efficient estimators of the marginal natural indirect and direct causal effects, and develop a novel double robust sensitivity analysis framework for the assumption of ignorability of the mediator variable.

Causal Inference in Observational Studies with Outcome-Dependent Sampling

In this paper, we consider estimation of the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome from observational data collected in two phases. In the first phase, a simple random sample of individuals are drawn from a population. On these individuals, information is obtained on treatment, outcome, and a few low-dimensional confounders. These individuals are then stratified according to these factors. In the second phase, a random sub-sample of individuals are drawn from each stratum, with known, stratum-specific selection probabilities. On these individuals, a rich set of confounding factors are collected. In this setting, we introduce four estimators: (1) simple inverse weighted, (2) locally efficient, (3) doubly robust and (4)enriched inverse weighted. We evaluate the finite-sample performance of these estimators in a simulation study. We also use our methodology to estimate the causal effect of trauma care on in-hospital mortality using data from the National Study of Cost and Outcomes of Trauma.

How the Euro divides the union: the effect of economic adjustment on support for democracy in Europe

As often pointed out in the literature on the European debt crisis, the policy programme of austerity and internal devaluation imposed on countries in the Eurozone's periphery exhibits a lack of democratic legitimacy. This article analyses the consequences these developments have for democratic support at both the European and national levels. We show that through the policies of economic adjustment, a majority of citizens in crisis countries has become ‘detached’ from their democratic political system. By cutting loose the Eurozone's periphery from the rest of Europe in terms of democratic legitimacy, the Euro has divided the union, instead of uniting it as foreseen by its architects. Our results are based on aggregated Eurobarometer surveys conducted in 28 European Union (EU) member states between 2002 and 2014. We employ quantitative time-series cross-sectional regression analyses. Moreover, we estimate the causal effect of economic adjustment in a comparative case study of four cases using the synthetic control method.

Effect of insulin resistance on monounsaturated fatty acid levels : a multi-cohort non-targeted metabolomics and mendelian randomization study

Insulin resistance (IR) and impaired insulin secretion contribute to type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Both are associated with changes in the circulating metabolome, but causal directions have been difficult to disentangle. We combined untargeted plasma metabolomics by liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry in three non-diabetic cohorts with Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis to obtain new insights into early metabolic alterations in IR and impaired insulin secretion. In up to 910 elderly men we found associations of 52 metabolites with hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp-measured IR and/or β-cell responsiveness (disposition index) during an oral glucose tolerance test. These implicated bile acid, glycerophospholipid and caffeine metabolism for IR and fatty acid biosynthesis for impaired insulin secretion. In MR analysis in two separate cohorts (n = 2,613) followed by replication in three independent studies profiled on different metabolomics platforms (n = 7,824 / 8,961 / 8,330), we discovered and replicated causal effects of IR on lower levels of palmitoleic acid and oleic acid. A trend for a causal effect of IR on higher levels of tyrosine reached significance only in meta-analysis. In one of the largest studies combining "gold standard" measures for insulin responsiveness with non-targeted metabolomics, we found distinct metabolic profiles related to IR or impaired insulin secretion. We speculate that the causal effects on monounsaturated fatty acid levels could explain parts of the raised cardiovascular disease risk in IR that is independent of diabetes development.

Finite Population Inference for Causal Parameters

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

CAUSAL INFERENCE WITH A CONTINUOUS TREATMENT AND OUTCOME: ALTERNATIVE ESTIMATORS FOR PARAMETRIC DOSE-RESPONSE FUNCTIONS WITH APPLICATIONS.

Causal inference with a continuous treatment is a relatively under-explored problem. In this dissertation, we adopt the potential outcomes framework. Potential outcomes are responses that would be seen for a unit under all possible treatments. In an observational study where the treatment is continuous, the potential outcomes are an uncountably infinite set indexed by treatment dose. We parameterize this unobservable set as a linear combination of a finite number of basis functions whose coefficients vary across units. This leads to new techniques for estimating the population average dose-response function (ADRF). Some techniques require a model for the treatment assignment given covariates, some require a model for predicting the potential outcomes from covariates, and some require both. We develop these techniques using a framework of estimating functions, compare them to existing methods for continuous treatments, and simulate their performance in a population where the ADRF is linear and the models for the treatment and/or outcomes may be misspecified. We also extend the comparisons to a data set of lottery winners in Massachusetts. Next, we describe the methods and functions in the R package causaldrf using data from the National Medical Expenditure Survey (NMES) and Infant Health and Development Program (IHDP) as examples. Additionally, we analyze the National Growth and Health Study (NGHS) data set and deal with the issue of missing data. Lastly, we discuss future research goals and possible extensions.

Who benefits from marriage?

The phenomenon that married men earn higher average wages than unmarried men, the so-called marriage premium, is well known. However, the robustness of the marriage premium across the wage distribution and the underlying causes of the marriage premium deserve closer scrutiny. Focusing on the entire wage distribution and employing recently developed semi-nonparametric tests for quantile treatment effects, our findings cast doubt on the robustness of the premium. We find that the premium is explained by selection above the median, whereas a positive premium is obtained only at very low wages. We argue that the causal effect at low wages is probably attributable to employer discrimination.

Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting : evidence from a natural experiment

We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 12 percentage points. Our study is the first clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the effect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we find that exit poll information significantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner.

Exit polls, turnout, and bandwagon voting: Evidence from a natural experiment

We exploit a voting reform in France to estimate the causal effect of exit poll information on turnout and bandwagon voting. Before the change in legislation, individuals in some French overseas territories voted after the election result had already been made public via exit poll information from mainland France. We estimate that knowing the exit poll information decreases voter turnout by about 11 percentage points. Our study is the first clean empirical design outside of the laboratory to demonstrate the effect of such knowledge on voter turnout. Furthermore, we find that exit poll information significantly increases bandwagon voting; that is, voters who choose to turn out are more likely to vote for the expected winner.

Differential proteomic and genomic profiling of mouse striatal cell model of Huntington's disease and control; probable implications to the disease biology

Huntington's disease (HD) is an autosomal dominant disorder of central nervous system caused by expansion of CAG repeats in exon1 of the huntingtin gene (Htt). Among various dysfunctions originated from the mutation in Htt gene, transcriptional deregulation has been considered to be one of the most important abnormalities. Large numbers of investigations identified altered expressions of genes in brains of HD patients and many models of HD. In this study we employed 2D SDS-PAGE/MALDI-MS coupled with 2D-DIGE and real-time PCR experiments of an array of genes focused to HD pathway to determine altered protein and gene expressions in STHdh(Q111)/Hdh(Q111) cells, a cell model of HD and compared with STHdh(Q7)/Hdh(Q7) cells, its wild type counterpart. We annotated 76 proteins from these cells and observed differential expressions of 31 proteins (by 2D-DIGE) involved in processes like unfolded protein binding, negative regulation of neuron apoptosis, response to superoxides etc. Our PCR array experiments identified altered expressions of 47 genes. Altogether significant alteration of 77 genes/proteins could be identified in this HD cell line with potential relevance to HD biology. Biological significance: In this study we intended to find out differential proteomic and genomic profiles in HD condition. We used the STHdh cells, a cellular model for HD and control. These are mouse striatal neuronal cell lines harboring 7 and 111 knock -in CAG repeats in their two alleles. The 111Q containing cell line (STHdh(Q111)/Hdh(Q111)) mimics diseased condition, whereas the 7Q containing ones (STHdh(Q7)/Hdh(Q7)), serves as the proper control cell line. Proteomic experiments were performed earlier to obtain differential expressions of proteins in R6/2 mice models, Hdh(Q) knock -in mice and in plasma and CSF from HD patients. However, no earlier report on proteomic alterations in these two HD cell lines and control was available in literature. It was, therefore, an important objective to find out differential expressions of proteins in these two cell lines. In this study, we annotated 76 proteins from STHdh(Q7)/Hdh(Q7) and STHdh(Q111)/Hdh(Q111) cells using 2D-gel/mass spectrometry. Next, by performing 2D-DIGE, we observed differential expressions of 31 proteins (16 upregulated and 15 downregulated) between these two cell lines. We also performed customized qRT-PCR array focused to HD pathway and found differential expressions of 47 genes (8 gene exptessions increased and 39 genes were decreased significantly). A total of 77 genes/proteins (Htt downregulated in both the studies) were found to be significantly altered from both the experimental paradigms. We validated the differential expressions of Vim, Hypk, Ran, Dstn, Hspa5 and Sod2 either by qRT-PCR or Western blot analysis or both. Out of these 77, similar trends in alteration of 19 out of 31 and 38 out of 47 proteins/genes were reported in earlier studies. Thus our study confirmed earlier observations on differential gene/protein expressions in HD and are really useful. Additionally, we observed differential expression of some novel genes/proteins. One of this was Hypk, a Htt-interacting chaperone protein with the ability to solubilize mHtt aggregated structures in cell lines. We propose that downregulation of Hypk in STHdh-Qm (Q111)/Hdh(Q111) has a causal effect towards HD pathogenesis. Thus the novel findings from our study need further research and might be helpful to understand the molecular mechanism behind HD pathogenesis. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Efecto de la formación en el trabajo sobre la movilidad laboral

[ES] En este trabajo se analiza empíricamente la relación existente entre la formación dada por la empresa a sus trabajadores y la posterior salida de la empresa de dichos trabajadores. La principal aportación a la literatura existente en este campo se encuentra en la metodología empírica que se utiliza. En concreto, se propone un modelo de estimación que específicamente tiene en cuenta la posible endogeneidad existente entre la variable de formación y la de movilidad laboral.

Análise morfométrica das estruturas maxilo-mandibulares de indivíduos pré-colombianos e contemporâneos da Costa Central do Peru

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar morfometricamente as modificações ocorridas ao longo de 500 anos nas estruturas maxilo-mandibulares de indivíduos da Costa Central do Peru. Foram utilizadas telerradiografias laterais de 30 crânios secos, sem deformidades esqueléticas e em normoclusão, do período Pré-colombiano (grupo Pré-colombiano) e de 30 peruanos nativos contemporâneos, com características esqueléticas e oclusais semelhantes, provenientes da mesma região geográfica (grupo Contemporâneo). Estas telerradiografias foram digitalizadas e 14 pontos cefalométricos foram marcados e utilizados como marcos anatômicos homólogos para a análise morfométrica. O tamanho do centróide, a forma e a alometria foram comparados entre os grupos para a amostra total, para homens e para mulheres, pelos testes de one-way ANOVA, função discriminante e regressão multivariada, respectivamente. As mesmas avaliações foram realizadas para homens e mulheres do mesmo grupo. O tamanho do centróide foi significativamente maior para o grupo Contemporâneo tanto para a amostra total, quanto para homens e mulheres, demonstrando que as estruturas maxilo-mandibulares dos indivíduos contemporâneos é maior do que de seus ancestrais. Quando homens e mulheres foram comparados intra-grupos o tamanho do centróide foi significativamente maior para os homens do grupo Contemporâneo, com a mesma tendência para os homens pré-colombianos, porém sem significância estatística. Observou-se diferenças significativas entre os grupos para a forma das estruturas maxilo-mandibulares indicando que ao longo do tempo houve um deslocamento posterior da região da pré-maxila e um deslocamento considerável para cima e para trás da apófise coronóide, uma abertura do ângulo na região goníaca e um alongamento no sentido vertical da região da sínfise mandibular. Essas mudanças morfológicas foram mais evidentes nas mulheres do que nos homens, parecendo haver maior efeito das tendências seculares nas mulheres. Não houve diferenças morfológicas entre homens e mulheres quando comparados intra-grupos, demonstrando que os resultados observados não foram influenciados pelo dimorfismo sexual. As diferenças de tamanho existentes intra-grupos foram responsáveis por apenas 6% das diferenças de forma, e portanto não há efeito causal do tamanho sobre as diferenças de forma observadas entre os grupos. Pode-se concluir que as diferenças morfológicas das estruturas maxilo-mandibulares encontradas neste estudo sugerem mudanças nas condições ambientais da população da Costa Central do Peru ao longo de 500 anos e podem contribuir para o melhor esclarecimento dos fatores etiológicos das más oclusões.

Can information alone change behavior? Response to arsenic contamination of groundwater in Bangladesh

We study how effectively information induces Bangladeshi households to avoid a health risk. The response to information is large and rapid; knowing that the household's well water has an unsafe concentration of arsenic raises the probability that the household changes to another well within one year by 0.37. Households who change wells increase the time spent obtaining water fifteen-fold. We identify a causal effect of information, since incidence of arsenic is uncorrelated with household characteristics. Our door-to-door information campaign provides well-specific arsenic levels without which behavior does not change. Media communicate general information about arsenic less expensively and no less effectively. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Patterns of de novo allo B cells and antibody formation in chronic cardiac allograft rejection after alemtuzumab treatment.

Even though the etiology of chronic rejection (CR) is multifactorial, donor specific antibody (DSA) is considered to have a causal effect on CR development. Currently the antibody-mediated mechanisms during CR are poorly understood due to lack of proper animal models and tools. In a clinical setting, we previously demonstrated that induction therapy by lymphocyte depletion, using alemtuzumab (anti-human CD52), is associated with an increased incidence of serum alloantibody, C4d deposition and antibody-mediated rejection in human patients. In this study, the effects of T cell depletion in the development of antibody-mediated rejection were examined using human CD52 transgenic (CD52Tg) mice treated with alemtuzumab. Fully mismatched cardiac allografts were transplanted into alemtuzumab treated CD52Tg mice and showed no acute rejection while untreated recipients acutely rejected their grafts. However, approximately half of long-term recipients showed increased degree of vasculopathy, fibrosis and perivascular C3d depositions at posttransplant day 100. The development of CR correlated with DSA and C3d deposition in the graft. Using novel tracking tools to monitor donor-specific B cells, alloreactive B cells were shown to increase in accordance with DSA detection. The current animal model could provide a means of testing strategies to understand mechanisms and developing therapeutic approaches to prevent chronic rejection.