A abertura financeira reduz as restrições de crédito nos países emergentes?

Um dos principais entraves aos investimentos das firmas é a restrição ao financiamento. A existência de controles de capitais em determinados países pode aumentar o custo de captação das empresas, sobretudo para companhias menores ou para fabricantes de produtos não comercializáveis, que são mais dependentes de recursos domésticos. Este trabalho analisa o impacto da abertura financeira sobre os investimentos de uma amostra de 6.860 empresas de capital aberto de treze países emergentes. Os resultados sugerem que firmas residentes em países com menos controles de capitais possuem menores restrições ao financiamento dos investimentos. Adicionalmente, empresas maiores e produtoras de bens comercializáveis também são menos restritas ao crédito.

Partial economic reforrns and financial crises: an emerging markets perspective

The recent emerging market experiences have posed a challenge to the conventional wisdom that unsustainable fiscal deficits are the key to understanding financial crises in these countries. The health of the domestic banking system has emerged as the main driving force behind the perverse dynamics of partial reforms. The current paper shares this view and uses a model of contractual inefliciencies in the banking sector to understand the dynamics of these reforms. We find that the threat of a large exchange rate devaluation depends on the stock of international reserves relative to the stock of domestic credit that must be extended by the Central Bank in response to a large capital outflow. Moreover, if a country has a weak banking sector but high net reserve ratios, the capital flow reversal might only increase the vulnerability to a currency crisis without necessarily causing it. The results are in accordance with much of the empiricalliterature on the determinants of financiaI crises in emerging markets. Some aspectsof the recent policy debate on the introduction of capital controls are also analysed.

Macroeconomic constraints to growth of Brazilian economy diagnosis and some policy proposals

The recent process of accelerated expansion of the Brazilian economy was driven by exports and fixed capital formation. Although the pace of growth was more robust than in the 1990´s, we can still witness the existence of certain macroeconomic constraints to its continuation in the long run such as, for instance, the exchange rate overvaluation in particular since 2005, and in general the modus operandi of monetary policy. Such constraints may jeopardize the sustainability of the current pace of growth. Therefore, we argue that Brazil still lies in a trap made up of high interest and low exchange rates. The elimination of the exchange rate misalignment would bring about a great increase in the rate of interest, which on its turn would impact negatively upon investment and hence upon the sustainability of long run economic growth. We outline a set of policy measures to eliminate such a trap, in particular, the adoption of an implicit target for the exchange rate, capital controls and the abandonment of the present regime of inflation targeting. Recent events seem to go in this direction.

Flexible information acquisition and optimal Tobin tax in tractable dynamic global games

My dissertation focuses on dynamic aspects of coordination processes such as reversibility of early actions, option to delay decisions, and learning of the environment from the observation of other people’s actions. This study proposes the use of tractable dynamic global games where players privately and passively learn about their actions’ true payoffs and are able to adjust early investment decisions to the arrival of new information to investigate the consequences of the presence of liquidity shocks to the performance of a Tobin tax as a policy intended to foster coordination success (chapter 1), and the adequacy of the use of a Tobin tax in order to reduce an economy’s vulnerability to sudden stops (chapter 2). Then, it analyzes players’ incentive to acquire costly information in a sequential decision setting (chapter 3). In chapter 1, a continuum of foreign agents decide whether to enter or not in an investment project. A fraction λ of them are hit by liquidity restrictions in a second period and are forced to withdraw early investment or precluded from investing in the interim period, depending on the actions they chose in the first period. Players not affected by the liquidity shock are able to revise early decisions. Coordination success is increasing in the aggregate investment and decreasing in the aggregate volume of capital exit. Without liquidity shocks, aggregate investment is (in a pivotal contingency) invariant to frictions like a tax on short term capitals. In this case, a Tobin tax always increases success incidence. In the presence of liquidity shocks, this invariance result no longer holds in equilibrium. A Tobin tax becomes harmful to aggregate investment, which may reduces success incidence if the economy does not benefit enough from avoiding capital reversals. It is shown that the Tobin tax that maximizes the ex-ante probability of successfully coordinated investment is decreasing in the liquidity shock. Chapter 2 studies the effects of a Tobin tax in the same setting of the global game model proposed in chapter 1, with the exception that the liquidity shock is considered stochastic, i.e, there is also aggregate uncertainty about the extension of the liquidity restrictions. It identifies conditions under which, in the unique equilibrium of the model with low probability of liquidity shocks but large dry-ups, a Tobin tax is welfare improving, helping agents to coordinate on the good outcome. The model provides a rationale for a Tobin tax on economies that are prone to sudden stops. The optimal Tobin tax tends to be larger when capital reversals are more harmful and when the fraction of agents hit by liquidity shocks is smaller. Chapter 3 focuses on information acquisition in a sequential decision game with payoff complementar- ity and information externality. When information is cheap relatively to players’ incentive to coordinate actions, only the first player chooses to process information; the second player learns about the true payoff distribution from the observation of the first player’s decision and follows her action. Miscoordination requires that both players privately precess information, which tends to happen when it is expensive and the prior knowledge about the distribution of the payoffs has a large variance.

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2010-2011: Internacional integration and macroeconomic policy challenges amid global economic turmoil

Includes bibliography

Understanding the business cycle in Latin America: Prebisch's contributions

Includes bibliography

Portrait of the economist as a young man: Raúl Prebisch's evolving views on the business cycle and money, 1919-1949

Includes bibliography

CEPAL Review no. 118

Special issue: 40 years of CEPAL Review

A Tale of Three Countries: Recovery after Banking Crises

Highlights: • Iceland, Ireland and Latvia experienced similar developments before the crisis, such as sharp increases in banks’ balance sheets and the expansion of the construction sector. However the impact of the crisis was different: Latvia was hit harder than any other country in the world. Ireland also suffered heavily, while Iceland came out from the crisis with the smallest fall in employment, despite the greatest shock to the financial system. • There were marked differences in policy mix: currency collapse in Iceland but not in Latvia, letting banks fail in Iceland but not in Ireland, and the introduction of strict capital controls only in Iceland. The speed of fiscal consolidation was fastest in Latvia and slowest in Ireland. • Economic recovery has started in all three countries and there are several encouraging signals. The programme targets in terms of fiscal adjustment, structural reforms and financial reform are on track in all three countries. • Iceland seems to have the right policy mix. • Internal devaluation in Ireland and Latvia through wage cuts did not work, because privatesector wages hardly changed. The productivity increase was significant in Ireland and moderate in Latvia, yet was the result of a greater fall in employment than the fall in output, with harmful social consequences. • The experience with the collapse of the gigantic Icelandic banking system suggests that letting banks fail when they had a faulty business model is the right choice. • There is a strong case for a European banking federation.

Does inter-jurisdictional competition engender a “race to the bottom”? A meta-regression analysis

A growing literature documents the existence of strategic political reactions to publicexpenditure between rival jurisdictions. These interactions can potentially createa downward expenditure spiral (“race to the bottom”) or a rising expenditure spiral(“race to the top”). However, in the course of identifying the existence of such interactions and ascertaining their underlying triggers, the empirical evidence has produced markedly heterogeneous findings. Most of this heterogeneity can be traced back to study design and institutional differences. This article contributes to the literature by applying meta-regression analysis to quantify the magnitude of strategic inter-jurisdictional expenditure interactions, controlling for study, and institutional characteristics. We find several robust results beyond confirming that jurisdictions do engage in strategic expenditure interactions, namely that strategic interactions: (i) are weakening over time, (ii) are stronger among municipalities than among higher levels of government, and (iii) appear to be more influenced from tax competition than yardstick competition, with capital controls and fiscal decentralization shaping the magnitude of fiscal interactions.

Knowledge Transfer within Western Multinationals' Subsidiary Units in China and Finland - The Impact of Headquarter Control Mechanisms, Subsidiary Location and Social Capital (summary section only)

It is suggested that the ability and practices of how the multinational corporation (MNC) manages knowledge transfer among its geographically dispersed subsidiary units are crucial for the building and development of firm competitive advantage. However, cross-border transfer of valuable organizational knowledge is likely to be problematic and laborious, especially within diversified and differentiated MNCs. Using data collected from 164 western multinational companies’ subsidiary units located in China and Finland, this study aims to investigate cross-border knowledge transfer within the MNC. It explores a number of factors that influence the transfer of knowledge among units in the differentiated MNC. The study consists of five individual papers. Paper 1 investigates a range of organizational mechanisms that may positively influence a subsidiary’s propensity to undertake knowledge transfers to other parts of the corporation. Paper 2 explores the impact of subsidiary location on the motivational dispositions of knowledge receiving units to value and accept knowledge from subsidiaries located in economically less advanced countries. Paper 3 examines the influence of social capital variables on knowledge transfer in dyadic relationships between foreign-owned subsidiaries and their sister and patent units. Paper 4 provides some initial insights into potentially different effects of trust and shared vision in intra-organizational vs. inter-organizational relationships. Using a case study setting, Paper 5 explores means and mechanisms used in transferring human resource management practices to Western MNCs’ business units in China from a cultural perspective. The results of the study show that MNC management through choices regarding organizational controls can encourage and enhance corporate-internal knowledge transfer. It also finds evidence that more knowledge is transferred from subsidiaries located in an industrialized country (e.g., Finland) than subsidiaries located in a developing country (e.g., China). While the study has highlighted the importance of social capital in promoting knowledge transfer, it has also uncovered some new findings that the effect of trust and shared vision may be contingent upon different contexts. Finally, in Paper 5, a number of mechanisms used in transferring selected HRM practices and competences to the Chinese business units have been identified. The findings suggest that cultural differences should be taken into consideration in the choice and use of different transfer mechanisms.

O impacto da internacionalização sobre o sistema de controle de gestão de empresas gaúchas: um estudo de caso múltiplo entre as empresas de capital aberto Fras-le S/A, Gerdau S/A e Forjas Taurus S/A

O presente estudo buscou analisar os principais impactos sofridos pelos sistemas de controle de gestão das empresas em decorrência de sua internacionalização e consequente aumento da complexidade de suas operações. A pesquisa buscou analisar também algum afastamento ou aproximação da literatura pesquisada, sobre a forma como este processo de internacionalização acontece. Assim sendo, foram feitas comparações entre as características de controle e de internacionalização encontradas na literatura e as situações encontradas nas empresas entrevistadas nesta pesquisa. Para possibilitar tais comparações, foi realizada uma revisão da literatura sobre as teorias acerca do controle de gestão nas empresas, sobre os processos de internacionalização e também sobre as teorias de internacionalização de empresas, descritas pelos principais autores destas áreas. Definido o plano de referência, foi adotado o método de estudo de caso aplicado em três das maiores empresas do estado do Rio Grande do Sul, a Gerdau S/A, a Fras-le S/A e a Forjas Taurus S/A, a fim de explorar mais aprofundadamente os reais procedimentos e controles encontrados nestas empresas, de tamanha relevância para a economia Gaúcha e Brasileira, observando suas características em relação ao plano de referência proposto. Com base nas entrevistas presenciais realizadas, foi possível verificar a real importância dos sistemas de controle de gestão nas companhias internacionalizadas e o grande desafio que as empresas atravessam para conseguir monitorar e planejar, de forma eficiente, as complexas atividades realizadas em diferentes locais do mundo. Os principais achados indicam que os sistemas de controle sofrem vários impactos para adaptação aos diferentes mercados, sendo identificadas relevantes mudanças estruturais, conceituais e de acompanhamento e controle nos casos analisados. Deve-se destacar a grande impotância dos investimentos em tecnologia, pesquisa e desenvolvimento e a atenção constante que as empresas devem dispensar ao capital intelectual para a obtenção de eficiência e qualidade nas operações. Quanto às características do processo de internacionalização, foram encontradas aproximações relevantes entre teoria e prática.

From dispersed to monopolized violence: expansion and consolidation of the Primeiro Comando da Capital's hegemony in São Paulo's prisons

The present work aims to understand the process of expansion and consolidation of the organized criminal group the Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC) in São Paulo’s prison system over the past 20 years, and the social configuration that has formed as a result of the PCCs monopolization of opportunities of power. To this end, the work of Norbert Elias is utilized to analyze empirical data collected from various sources. The article consists of two lines of analysis. First, the PCC phenomenon is approached from a macro-sociological point of view, focusing on the social, political and administrative problems that are directly or indirectly linked to the PCCs social development. Second, a figurational analysis is used to explore the social dynamics produced from this process. In comparison to the “pre-PCC” situation, it is shown that the new social configuration produced from the hegemony of the PCC consists of a complexity of interdependencies, including greater functional division and social integration. Given this intensification of mutual dependencies, the social controls on individual behavior have been expanded and centralized. Here, the structure and organization of the PCC, its political dynamics, and individual self-control are central issues. The article concludes by calling into question the view that the most significant effect of the PCCs consolidation has been social pacification of São Paulo’s prison system. Fragilities in the power of the PCC are explored, principally the precarious nature of the relationship between the PCC and state authorities, and the extent to which the PCC’s authority is imposed.

The impact of energy performance certificates on the rental and capital values of commercial property assets: some preliminary evidence from the UK

This paper focuses on the effect of energy performance ratings on the capital values, rental values and equivalent yields of UK commercial property assets. Of which a small number are also BREEAM rated, the study is based upon 708 commercial property assets held in the IPD UK Universe drawn from across all PAS segments. Incorporating a range of controls such as unexpired lease term, vacancy rate and tenant credit risk, hedonic regression procedures are used to estimate the effect of EPC rating. The study finds no evidence of a strong relationship between environmental and/or energy performance and rental and capital value. Bearing in mind the small number of BREEAM rated assets, there was a small but statistically significant effect on equivalent yield only. Similarly, there was no evidence that the EPC rating had any effect on Market Rent or Market Value with only minor effects of EPC ratings on equivalent yields. The preliminary conclusion is that energy labelling is not yet having the effects on Market Values and Market Rents that provide incentives for market participants to improve the energy efficiency of their commercial real estate assets.

Factors affecting capital program performance audit findings

Complex capital programs require specialized management techniques, in order to address the volatility, cost overruns, significant delays in completion, and failures with which such programs are typically associated. The need is greater than ever for careful oversight, especially for programs that expend public monies.

Audit is commonly a statutory or governance requirement on such programs, but traditional performance audit techniques and standards may be insufficient for certain types of programs and industries, providing a mere illusion of oversight adequacy instead of the assurance that is needed. In order to most appropriately define the performance audit scope, phrase the solicitation for services, select the audit team, and provide support to the auditors during the engagement, public and private sector entity auditees need to understand the factors that impact performance audit results and effectiveness. The question becomes one of how performance audit can be improved, and stakeholders satisfied regarding program achievements, accountability for resource use, transparency in operations, and risk management.

The author considered program complexity, governance, project controls, the history and evolution of the audit function, stakeholder expectations, assurance, and obstacles to audit, and used this information in conjunction with data from a large sample of 775 audit reports from complex construction programs, to derive questions and conclusions about performance audit results and effectiveness, and comparisons to expenditure audit results. The ultimate goal was to define key components in the execution of performance audits, based on theconclusions of the analysis, in order to improve performance audit findings and thus their applicability and usefulness.

While this study focused on program performance audit, it was also related to the field of program management. Although the data population was concentrated in the area of construction programs, conclusions from this research may also be applied to other complex, multifaceted or phased activities such as projects and programs in other industries (manufacturing, information technology), and also pursuits such as major event planning, company launch, mergers, and large program implementations or rollouts.

The research results clearly demonstrated that different types of findings were generated by different audit scopes. The author observed that typical audit findings focused on routine procedural, accounting, and controls errors. On average, contract expenditure audits questioned only 2.65% of expenditures, and performance audits of large complex programs questioned only 0.03% of expenditures. The majority (72.56%) of the performance audits in the sample yielded no findings or questioned costs.

There were significant positive correlations between: the number of expenditures tested and the number of qualitative findings, inclusion of construction experts on the audit team and the percentage of expenditures questioned, inclusion of construction experts on the audit team and the number of qualitative findings, broader audit scope and the percentage of expenditures questioned, and broader audit scope and the number of qualitative findings. Of these, auditor expertise and audit scope were the driving factors.

There were significant negative correlations between the application of agreed-upon procedures and the percentage of expenditures questioned, and the application of agreed upon-procedures and the number of qualitative findings. It was determined that the significant negative correlation between the application of audit standards and the number of qualitative findings was due to other factors, such as the application of agreed-upon procedures and the lack of construction experts on the audit team.

Other findings, resulting from review of the data, were unrelated to the research questions yet of considerable importance to industry. An extremely high percentage (81%) of the “performance audits” instead applied a very limited set of agreed-upon-procedures (AUP) in the engagement, According to the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (CPAs), AUP engagements could not be classified as audits. Thus, it was inappropriate for the accounting firms to apply AUP engagements in lieu of a performance audit, and it was especially egregious for them to state in their report that the engagements were conducted in accordance with audit standards, as AUP engagements and the specific audit standards were by their very nature mutually exclusive.