Predictive accuracy and usefulness of calibration of the ESC SCORE in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at the individual level should rely on the assessment of absolute risk using population-specific risk tables. OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and the calibrated SCORE functions regarding 10-year cardiovascular risk in Switzerland. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, population-based study (5773 participants aged 35-74 years). METHODS: The SCORE equation for low-risk countries was calibrated based on the Swiss CVD mortality rates and on the CVD risk factor levels from the study sample. The predicted number of CVD deaths after a 10-year period was computed from the original and the calibrated equations and from the observed cardiovascular mortality for 2003. RESULTS: According to the original and calibrated functions, 16.3 and 15.8% of men and 8.2 and 8.9% of women, respectively, had a 10-year CVD risk > or =5%. Concordance correlation coefficient between the two functions was 0.951 for men and 0.948 for women, both P<0.001. Both risk functions adequately predicted the 10-year cumulative number of CVD deaths: in men, 71 (original) and 74 (calibrated) deaths for 73 deaths when using the CVD mortality rates; in women, 44 (original), 45 (calibrated) and 45 (CVD mortality rates), respectively. Compared to the original function, the calibrated function classified more women and fewer men at high-risk. Moreover, the calibrated function gave better risk estimates among participants aged over 65 years. CONCLUSION: The original SCORE function adequately predicts CVD death in Switzerland, particularly for individuals aged less than 65 years. The calibrated function provides more reliable estimates for older individuals.

Application of discriminant function analysis and change-point problem in dating volcanic ashes

The application of Discriminant function analysis (DFA) is not a new idea in the studyof tephrochrology. In this paper, DFA is applied to compositional datasets of twodifferent types of tephras from Mountain Ruapehu in New Zealand and MountainRainier in USA. The canonical variables from the analysis are further investigated witha statistical methodology of change-point problems in order to gain a betterunderstanding of the change in compositional pattern over time. Finally, a special caseof segmented regression has been proposed to model both the time of change and thechange in pattern. This model can be used to estimate the age for the unknown tephrasusing Bayesian statistical calibration

Business Cycles, Unemployment Insurance, and the Calibration of Matching Models

This paper points out an empirical puzzle that arises when an RBC economy with a job matching function is used to model unemployment. The standard model can generate sufficiently large cyclical fluctuations in unemployment, or a sufficiently small response of unemployment to labor market policies, but it cannot do both. Variable search and separation, finite UI benefit duration, efficiency wages, and capital all fail to resolve this puzzle. However, both sticky wages and match-specific productivity shocks help the model reproduce the stylized facts: both make the firm's flow of surplus more procyclical, thus making hiring more procyclical too.

Business cycles, unemployment insurance and the calibration of matching models

This paper theoretically and empirically documents a puzzle that arises when an RBC economy with a job matching function is used to model unemployment. The standard model can generate sufficiently large cyclical fluctuations in unemployment, or a sufficiently small response of unemployment to labor market policies, but it cannot do both. Variable search and separation, finite UI benefit duration, efficiency wages, and capital all fail to resolve this puzzle. However, either sticky wages or match-specific productivity shocks can improve the model's performance by making the firm's flow of surplus more procyclical, which makes hiring more procyclical too.

Efficient estimation using the characteristic function : theory and applications with high frequency data

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Application of discriminant function analysis and change-point problem in dating volcanic ashes

The application of Discriminant function analysis (DFA) is not a new idea in the study of tephrochrology. In this paper, DFA is applied to compositional datasets of two different types of tephras from Mountain Ruapehu in New Zealand and Mountain Rainier in USA. The canonical variables from the analysis are further investigated with a statistical methodology of change-point problems in order to gain a better understanding of the change in compositional pattern over time. Finally, a special case of segmented regression has been proposed to model both the time of change and the change in pattern. This model can be used to estimate the age for the unknown tephras using Bayesian statistical calibration

Towards radiocarbon calibration beyond 28ka using speleothems from the Bahamas

We present a new speleothem record of atmospheric Δ14C between 28 and 44 ka that offers considerable promise for resolving some of the uncertainty associated with existing radiocarbon calibration curves for this time period. The record is based on a comprehensive suite of AMS 14C ages, using new low-blank protocols, and U–Th ages using high precision MC-ICPMS procedures. Atmospheric Δ14C was calculated by correcting 14C ages with a constant dead carbon fraction (DCF) of 22.7 ± 5.9%, based on a comparison of stalagmite 14C ages with the IntCal04 (Reimer et al., 2004) calibration curve between 15 and 11 ka. The new Δ14C speleothem record shows similar structure and amplitude to that derived from Cariaco Basin foraminifera (Hughen et al., 2004, 2006), and the match is further improved if the latter is tied to the most recent Greenland ice core chronology (Svensson et al., 2008). These data are however in conflict with a previously published 14C data set for a stalagmite record from the Bahamas — GB-89-24-1 (Beck et al., 2001), which likely suffered from 14C analytical blank subtraction issues in the older part of the record. The new Bahamas speleothem ∆14C data do not show the extreme shifts between 44 and 40 ka reported in the previous study (Beck et al., 2001). Causes for the observed structure in derived atmospheric Δ14C variation based on the new speleothem data are investigated with a suite of simulations using an earth system model of intermediate complexity. Data-model comparison indicates that major fluctuations in atmospheric ∆14C during marine isotope stage 3 is primarily a function of changes in geomagnetic field intensity, although ocean–atmosphere system reorganisation also played a supporting role.

Evidence for diffusional coupling in electrochemical thin layers: implications for surface coverage calibration via electrochemical infrared spectroscopy

The time dependence of the concentration of CO2 in an electrochemical thin layer cavity is studied with Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) in order to evaluate the extent to which the thin layer cavity is diffusionally decoupled from the surrounding bulk electrolyte. For the model system of CO on Pt(111) in 0.1 M HClO4, it is found that the concentration of CO2, formed by electro-oxidation of CO, equilibrates rapidly with the surrounding bulk electrolyte. This rapid equilibration indicates that there is diffusion out of the thin layer, even on the short time scales of typical infrared experiments (1-3 min). However, since the measured CO2 absorbance intensity as a function of time is reproducible to within 10%, a new time-dependent method for surface coverage calibration using solution-phase species is proposed.

IMPACT OF ENGINE CALIBRATION ON PM OXIDATION IN A CATALYZED PARTICULATE FILTER OVER A TRANSIENT CYCLE: A MODELLING STUDY

The combustion strategy in a diesel engine has an impact on the emissions, fuel consumption and the exhaust temperatures. The PM mass retained in the CPF is a function of NO2 and PM concentrations in addition to the exhaust temperatures and the flow rates. Thus the engine combustion strategy affects exhaust characteristics which has an impact on the CPF operation and PM mass retained and oxidized. In this report, a process has been developed to simulate the relationship between engine calibration, performance and HC and PM oxidation in the DOC and CPF respectively. Fuel Rail Pressure (FRP) and Start of Injection (SOI) sweeps were carried out at five steady state engine operating conditions. This data, along with data from a previously carried out surrogate HD-FTP cycle [1], was used to create a transfer function model which estimates the engine out emissions, flow rates, temperatures for varied FRP and SOI over a transient cycle. Four different calibrations (test cases) were considered in this study, which were simulated through the transfer function model and the DOC model [1, 2]. The DOC outputs were then input into a model which simulates the NO2 assisted and thermal PM oxidation inside a CPF. Finally, results were analyzed as to how engine calibration impacts the engine fuel consumption, HC oxidation in the DOC and the PM oxidation in the CPF. Also, active regeneration for various test cases was simulated and a comparative analysis of the fuel penalties involved was carried out.

Stochastic rank correlation: a robust merit function for 2D/3D registration of image data obtained at different energies

In this article, the authors evaluate a merit function for 2D/3D registration called stochastic rank correlation (SRC). SRC is characterized by the fact that differences in image intensity do not influence the registration result; it therefore combines the numerical advantages of cross correlation (CC)-type merit functions with the flexibility of mutual-information-type merit functions. The basic idea is that registration is achieved on a random subset of the image, which allows for an efficient computation of Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. This measure is, by nature, invariant to monotonic intensity transforms in the images under comparison, which renders it an ideal solution for intramodal images acquired at different energy levels as encountered in intrafractional kV imaging in image-guided radiotherapy. Initial evaluation was undertaken using a 2D/3D registration reference image dataset of a cadaver spine. Even with no radiometric calibration, SRC shows a significant improvement in robustness and stability compared to CC. Pattern intensity, another merit function that was evaluated for comparison, gave rather poor results due to its limited convergence range. The time required for SRC with 5% image content compares well to the other merit functions; increasing the image content does not significantly influence the algorithm accuracy. The authors conclude that SRC is a promising measure for 2D/3D registration in IGRT and image-guided therapy in general.

Transconvolution and the virtual positron emission tomograph--a new method for cross calibration in quantitative PET∕CT imaging

PURPOSE Positron emission tomography (PET)∕computed tomography (CT) measurements on small lesions are impaired by the partial volume effect, which is intrinsically tied to the point spread function of the actual imaging system, including the reconstruction algorithms. The variability resulting from different point spread functions hinders the assessment of quantitative measurements in clinical routine and especially degrades comparability within multicenter trials. To improve quantitative comparability there is a need for methods to match different PET∕CT systems through elimination of this systemic variability. Consequently, a new method was developed and tested that transforms the image of an object as produced by one tomograph to another image of the same object as it would have been seen by a different tomograph. The proposed new method, termed Transconvolution, compensates for differing imaging properties of different tomographs and particularly aims at quantitative comparability of PET∕CT in the context of multicenter trials. METHODS To solve the problem of image normalization, the theory of Transconvolution was mathematically established together with new methods to handle point spread functions of different PET∕CT systems. Knowing the point spread functions of two different imaging systems allows determining a Transconvolution function to convert one image into the other. This function is calculated by convolving one point spread function with the inverse of the other point spread function which, when adhering to certain boundary conditions such as the use of linear acquisition and image reconstruction methods, is a numerically accessible operation. For reliable measurement of such point spread functions characterizing different PET∕CT systems, a dedicated solid-state phantom incorporating (68)Ge∕(68)Ga filled spheres was developed. To iteratively determine and represent such point spread functions, exponential density functions in combination with a Gaussian distribution were introduced. Furthermore, simulation of a virtual PET system provided a standard imaging system with clearly defined properties to which the real PET systems were to be matched. A Hann window served as the modulation transfer function for the virtual PET. The Hann's apodization properties suppressed high spatial frequencies above a certain critical frequency, thereby fulfilling the above-mentioned boundary conditions. The determined point spread functions were subsequently used by the novel Transconvolution algorithm to match different PET∕CT systems onto the virtual PET system. Finally, the theoretically elaborated Transconvolution method was validated transforming phantom images acquired on two different PET systems to nearly identical data sets, as they would be imaged by the virtual PET system. RESULTS The proposed Transconvolution method matched different PET∕CT-systems for an improved and reproducible determination of a normalized activity concentration. The highest difference in measured activity concentration between the two different PET systems of 18.2% was found in spheres of 2 ml volume. Transconvolution reduced this difference down to 1.6%. In addition to reestablishing comparability the new method with its parameterization of point spread functions allowed a full characterization of imaging properties of the examined tomographs. CONCLUSIONS By matching different tomographs to a virtual standardized imaging system, Transconvolution opens a new comprehensive method for cross calibration in quantitative PET imaging. The use of a virtual PET system restores comparability between data sets from different PET systems by exerting a common, reproducible, and defined partial volume effect.

Calibration of cosmogenic noble gas production in ordinary chondrites based on 36 Cl- 36 Ar ages. Part 1: Refined produced rates for cosmogenic 21 Ne and 38 Ar

We measured the concentrations and isotopic compositions of He, Ne, and Ar in bulk samples and metal separates of 14 ordinary chondrite falls with long exposure ages and high metamorphic grades. In addition, we measured concentrations of the cosmogenic radionuclides 10Be, 26Al, and 36Cl in metal separates and in the nonmagnetic fractions of the selected meteorites. Using cosmogenic 36Cl and 36Ar measured in the metal separates, we determined 36Cl-36Ar cosmic-ray exposure (CRE) ages, which are shielding-independent and therefore particularly reliable. Using the cosmogenic noble gases and radionuclides, we are able to decipher the CRE history for the studied objects. Based on the correlation 3He/21Ne versus 22Ne/21Ne, we demonstrate that, among the meteorites studied, only one suffered significant diffusive losses (about 35%). The data confirm that the linear correlation 3He/21Ne versus 22Ne/21Ne breaks down at high shielding. Using 36Cl-36Ar exposure ages and measured noble gas concentrations, we determine 21Ne and 38Ar production rates as a function of 22Ne/21Ne. The new data agree with recent model calculations for the relationship between 21Ne and 38Ar production rates and the 22Ne/21Ne ratio, which does not always provide unique shielding information. Based on the model calculations, we determine a new correlation line for 21Ne and 38Ar production rates as a function of the shielding indicator 22Ne/21Ne for H, L, and LL chondrites with preatmospheric radii less than about 65 cm. We also calculated the 10Be/21Ne and 26Al/21Ne production rate ratios for the investigated samples, which show good agreement with recent model calculations.

A simple genetic algorithm for calibration of stochastic rock discontinuity networks

Este artículo propone un método para llevar a cabo la calibración de las familias de discontinuidades en macizos rocosos. We present a novel approach for calibration of stochastic discontinuity network parameters based on genetic algorithms (GAs). To validate the approach, examples of application of the method to cases with known parameters of the original Poisson discontinuity network are presented. Parameters of the model are encoded as chromosomes using a binary representation, and such chromosomes evolve as successive generations of a randomly generated initial population, subjected to GA operations of selection, crossover and mutation. Such back-calculated parameters are employed to make assessments about the inference capabilities of the model using different objective functions with different probabilities of crossover and mutation. Results show that the predictive capabilities of GAs significantly depend on the type of objective function considered; and they also show that the calibration capabilities of the genetic algorithm can be acceptable for practical engineering applications, since in most cases they can be expected to provide parameter estimates with relatively small errors for those parameters of the network (such as intensity and mean size of discontinuities) that have the strongest influence on many engineering applications.

Calibration of the length of a chain of single gold atoms

Using a scanning tunnelling microscope or mechanically controllable break junction it has been shown that it is possible to control the formation of a wire made of single gold atoms. In these experiments an interatomic distance between atoms in the chain of ∼3.6 Å was reported which is not consistent with recent theoretical calculations. Here, using precise calibration procedures for both techniques, we measure the length of the atomic chains. Based on the distance between the peaks observed in the chain length histogram we find the mean value of the interatomic distance before chain rupture to be 2.5±0.2 Å. This value agrees with the theoretical calculations for the bond length. The discrepancy with the previous experimental measurements was due to the presence of He gas, that was used to promote the thermal contact, and which affects the value of the work function that is commonly used to calibrate distances in scanning tunnelling microscopy and mechanically controllable break junctions at low temperatures.

Thyroid uptake calibration.

"Contract No. AT(40-1)-Gen-33."