Análisis comparativo de la estimación de la erosión hídrica con la metodología USLE y las técnicas RS SIG. Aplicación al entorno del tramo medio de la cuenca del río Jarama (Guadalajara)

La erosión hídrica en España es un problema grave, por las consecuencias que comporta en términos de pérdida del recurso suelo, sobre el que se sustenta la vida. Desde la década de los años ochenta del pasado siglo, la Administración Central ha realizado dos inventarios de erosión del suelo a nivel nacional: Los Mapas de Estados Erosivos (MEEs) y el Inventario Nacional de Erosión del Suelo (INES). En la presente Tesis Doctoral se han abordado las siguientes cuestiones: - Se ha profundizado en el análisis y aplicación de nuevas herramientas en la estimación del factor topográfico y del factor vegetación, que intervienen en los modelos de cálculo de las pérdidas de suelo, para mejorar la precisión en los resultados de la estimación de las tasas de erosión con los mismos. - Se ha establecido un procedimiento que permita realizar un inventario continuo de los Estados Erosivos de España, fijando como premisa el tiempo para su actualización. La Tesis desarrolla un procedimiento que permite comprobar que, la precisión utilizada en la cartografía base para determinar el factor vegetación y el factor topográfico del modelo USLE, influye en los resultados de la estimación de las tasas de erosión. También se ha realizado un estudio multi-temporal, analizado cuatro períodos: desde 1982 a 2014, con el fin de investigar las posibilidades de implementar un inventario continuo de los Estados Erosivos a nivel nacional; utilizando sensores remotos y técnicas de teledetección como herramienta para la actualización de los usos del suelo, factor determinante para estudiar la evolución de las tasas de erosión a lo largo del tiempo. Los resultados obtenidos de las investigaciones mencionadas, se han aplicado al tramo medio de la cuenca del río Jarama en la provincia de Guadalajara y han permitido comprobar que, la precisión de los datos utilizados en la aplicación del modelo USLE, influyen de una forma determinante en la estimación de las tasas de erosión y, además, hacen posible que la metodología, propuesta en esta Tesis, contribuya a establecer un inventario continuo de la evolución de los Estados Erosivos en un espacio multitemporal y a nivel de escenarios que abarcan una gran superficie. Gracias a este inventario se ha podido aportar información de la evolución de la cubierta vegetal y las pérdidas de suelo en la zona de estudio en el período analizado 1984-2015. ABSTRACT Water erosion in Spain is a serious problem and the consequences in terms of loss of soil resources on which life is based. Since the early eighties of last century, the central government has made two inventories of soil erosion nationwide: Maps of Erosive States (MEES) and the National Inventory of Soil Erosion (INES). In this Doctoral Thesis we have addressed the following issues: - It has deepened in the analysis and implementation of new tools in estimating the topographic factor and vegetation factor involved in the calculation models of soil loss, to improve accuracy in the results of the estimation of rates erosion therewith. - It has established a procedure allowing a continuous inventory of Erosion States of Spain, setting premised time for update. The thesis develops a method that allows to check that the precision used in the base map to determine the vegetation factor and topographical factor USLE model, influences the results of estimating erosion rates. There has also develop a multi-temporal study analyzed four periods: from 1982-2014, in order to investigate the possibilities of implementing a continuous inventory of erosion states at national level; using remote sensing techniques as a tool for updating land use, determining to study the evolution of erosion rates along the time factor. The results of the investigations referred to, have been applied to area around the middle reach of the Jarama river basin in the province of Guadalajara and would have shown that the accuracy of the data used in the model application USLE influence of decisive way estimating erosion rates and also make it possible that the methodology proposed in this thesis, help establish a continuous inventory of the evolution of erosive states in a multi-temporal space and level scenarios covering a large area. Thanks to this inventory was it able to provide information on the evolution of the vegetation cover and soil loss in the study area in the analyzed period 1984-2015.

Acciones humanas sobre estructuras

En esta tesis se propone un nuevo modelo de carga para caracterizar los saltos de personas sobre estructuras y se estudia la influencia de las personas en las propiedades dinámicas de la estructura. En el estudio del comportamiento estructural de construcciones como gimnasios, salas de baile, estadios, auditorios o pasarelas peatonales sometidas a cargas producidas por un gran número de personas, se deben tener en cuenta las fuerzas dinámicas, lo cual implica el uso de modelos de cálculo más complejos y criterios de dimensionamiento con nuevos parámetros. Por ello, es necesario determinar a qué cargas van a estar sometidas este tipo de estructuras y cómo van a cambiar cuando se encuentren ocupadas por personas. En la primera parte del trabajo se presenta el problema de considerar las fuerzas dinámicas en el análisis de estructuras. Se indican los factores que influyeron en el interés por este tipo de estudios. Se exponen los objetivos de la tesis y se propone la metodología para conseguirlos. También en esta primera parte se describe el estado del arte. Se explican los modelos existentes de carga generada por saltos de personas y se hace un repaso de los principales autores y estudios sobre este tema. Por último se exponen algunas ideas sobre las modificaciones dinámicas que provoca la presencia de las personas en las estructuras. En la segunda parte de la tesis se explica el modelo de carga de saltos propuesta en este trabajo, donde se incluye una campaña de ensayos con saltos sobre una placa de carga. Se describen las estructuras de ensayo, un gimnasio y una losa que cubre un aljibe. Se detalla la identificación de las propiedades dinámicas de las estructuras, describiendo los ensayos correspondientes y los resultados de un Análisis Operacional Modal. Por último se presenta el modelo de elementos finitos de la estructura elegida para los ensayos. En la tercera y última parte del trabajo se comprueba la validez de los modelos de carga estudiados mediante la realización de ensayos dinámicos con personas saltando y la posterior comparación de los resultados experimentales con las simulaciones numéricas. Como último resultado se estudia la influencia de las personas en las propiedades dinámicas de la estructura. Para ello se utilizan los datos obtenidos mediante un ensayo con personas pasivas. ABSTRACT In this thesis, a new load model is proposed to characterize people jumping on structures and the influence of people in the dynamic properties of the structure is studied. In the study of the structural behavior of buildings such as gymnasiums, dance halls, stadiums, auditoriums or footbridges subjected to loads generated by crowd, dynamic forces must take into account, which involves the use of more complex calculation models and dimensioning criteria with new parameters. Therefore, it is necessary to determine these dynamic loads and how structures will change when they are occupied by people. In the first part of the work the problem of considering the dynamic forces in the analysis of structures is presented. The factors that influence on the interest in this type of study are indicated. The objectives of the thesis are presented and also the proposed methodology in order to achieve them. In this first part the state of the art is described. Existing jumping load models are explained and a review of the main authors and studies on this subject is done. Finally some ideas about the dynamic changes caused by the presence of people in the structures are exposed. In the second part of the thesis the proposed jumping load model is explained, including jump tests on a force plate. Test structures, a gym and a concrete slab are described. Dynamic properties identification of the test structures is detailed with the corresponding tests and Operational Modal Analysis results. Finally, a finite element model of the structure chosen for the tests is presented. In the third part of the work, the studied jump load models are validated by performing dynamic testing with people jumping and the subsequent comparison of experimental results with numerical simulations. As a last result, the influence of people on the dynamic properties of the structure is checked. For this purpose, obtained data from a test with passive people are used.

Análisis experimental de las transmisiones indirectas en particiones de doble hoja de fábrica de ladrillo, propuesta de métodos de cuantificación para la mejora del aislamiento acústico

Esta investigación aborda el estudio de la influencia de las uniones en el aislamiento acústico a ruido aéreo en los edificios y el análisis de las transmisiones indirectas producidas en particiones de dos hojas de ladrillo cerámico sobre bandas elásticas. La transmisión de ruido entre dos recintos separados por una partición se produce por dos vías: La vía directa a través del elemento que separa los dos recintos y la vía indirecta, a través de los elementos de flanco, como forjados, particiones, fachadas, etc. que conectados a dicho elemento de separación, vibran en presencia del campo acústico transmitiendo sus vibraciones al recinto receptor. Si las transmisiones indirectas son dominantes, el aislamiento acústico “in situ” puede ser menor que el esperado. El parámetro que expresa la atenuación acústica en las uniones es el índice de reducción vibracional en la unión o Kij. Éste parámetro se utiliza en los métodos de cálculo del aislamiento acústico a ruido aéreo, que permiten la justificación del cumplimiento de la normativa actual, el Documento Básico DB HR Protección frente al ruido del CTE. La determinación de los índices Kij de las uniones es una cuestión que debe abordarse de forma experimental. Existen diferentes expresiones empíricas obtenidas en varios laboratorios europeos que permiten el cálculo del índice Kij, pero no se han validado con ensayos realizados en soluciones habituales en la construcción española, como las estudiadas en este trabajo. El objetivo de este trabajo es la medida, análisis y cuantificación de las transmisiones indirectas producidas en las uniones de elementos de dos hojas de fábrica de ladrillo cerámico. Se ha recurrido a una campaña de ensayos en la que se reproducían las condiciones de un edificio real y se ha medido el aislamiento acústico a ruido aéreo y los índices Kij de diferentes configuraciones de uniones. Del análisis de los resultados, se demuestra que el aislamiento acústico a ruido aéreo depende de las uniones, pudiéndose obtener mejoras significativas al variar la forma de unión entre los elementos constructivos. Las mejoras de aislamiento acústico están relacionadas con un buen diseño de las uniones y con valores elevados del índice Kij. Este trabajo aporta valores experimentales de Kij para soluciones de fábrica de ladrillo y pone en discusión los valores teóricos que actualmente aparecen en la normativa vigente. ABSTRACT This research work deals with the effects of junction construction details on airborne sound insulation in buildings and the analysis of flanking transmissions across double ceramic brick walls with elastic interlayers. The sound transmission between two adjacent rooms comprises two paths: the direct path, caused by the incident sound on a separating wall, and the indirect path, through flanking elements connected to the separating wall, such as floors, internal walls, ceilings, etc. Flanking elements vibrate when excited in the sound field, thus transferring sound via structure borne to the receiving room. Dominant flanking transmissions can decrease the field sound insulation performance of the building. The vibration reduction index, Kij. expresses the acoustic attenuation of construction joints. This is an input parameter in the calculation models designed to estimate the airborne sound insulation between adjoining rooms in buildings. These models are used to comply with the acoustic requirements set by Basic Document DB HR Protection against noise included in the Spanish Building Code. The characterization of Kij. must be addressed experimentally by means of measurements. The available empirical Kij. formulae were developed in different European laboratories, but they have not been validated with standard tests performed on common Spanish walls, such as those studied in this work. The aim of this work is the measurement, analysis and quantification of indirect transmissions though joints of double ceramic brick walls. Airborne sound insulation tests and Kij measurements were performed in a laboratory which emulated the conditions of a real building. These tests were performed in different partitions whose joints were modified. It follows from the analysis of the results that airborne sound insulation depends strongly on the design of joints. Sound insulation improves when the joints between construction elements are modified to eliminate acoustic bridges. The increase in sound insulation corresponds to best practice design of joints and to high Kij values. This research work provides experimental Kij data of double ceramic brick walls and the results put in discussion the theoretical values set in the current Standards.

Renormalization-group calculation of excitation properties for impurity models

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Distribution line models analysis for loss calculation within three-phase three-wire power flow algorithms

Three-phase three-wire power flow algorithms, as any tool for power systems analysis, require reliable impedances and models in order to obtain accurate results. Kron's reduction procedure, which embeds neutral wire influence into phase wires, has shown good results when three-phase three-wire power flow algorithms based on current summation method were used. However, Kron's reduction can harm reliabilities of some algorithms whose iterative processes need loss calculation (power summation method). In this work, three three-phase three-wire power flow algorithms based on power summation method, will be compared with a three-phase four-wire approach based on backward-forward technique and current summation. Two four-wire unbalanced medium-voltage distribution networks will be analyzed and results will be presented and discussed. © 2004 IEEE.

Renormalization-group calculation of dynamical properties for impurity models

The numerical renormalization-group method was originally developed to calculate the thermodynamical properties of impurity Hamiltonians. A recently proposed generalization capable of computing dynamical properties is discussed. As illustrative applications, essentially exact results for the impurity specttral densities of the spin-degenerate Anderson model and of a model for electronic tunneling between two centers in a metal are presented. © 1991.

Comparative study of the different models for the calculation of BLEVEs overpressure effects

The BLEVE, acronym for Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion, is one of the most dangerous accidents that can occur in pressure vessels. It can be defined as an explosion resulting from the failure of a vessel containing a pressure liquefied gas stored at a temperature significantly above its boiling point at atmospheric pressure. This phenomenon frequently appears when a vessel is engulfed by a fire: the heat causes the internal pressure to raise and the mechanical proprieties of the wall to decrease, with the consequent rupture of the tank and the instantaneous release of its whole content. After the breakage, the vapour outflows and expands and the liquid phase starts boiling due to the pressure drop. The formation and propagation of a distructive schock wave may occur, together with the ejection of fragments, the generation of a fireball if the stored fluid is flammable and immediately ignited or the atmospheric dispersion of a toxic cloud if the fluid contained inside the vessel is toxic. Despite the presence of many studies on the BLEVE mechanism, the exact causes and conditions of its occurrence are still elusive. In order to better understand this phenomenon, in the present study first of all the concept and definition of BLEVE are investigated. A historical analysis of the major events that have occurred over the past 60 years is described. A research of the principal causes of this event, including the analysis of the substances most frequently involved, is presented too. Afterwards a description of the main effects of BLEVEs is reported, focusing especially on the overpressure. Though the major aim of the present thesis is to contribute, with a comparative analysis, to the validation of the main models present in the literature for the calculation and prediction of the overpressure caused by BLEVEs. In line with this purpose, after a short overview of the available approaches, their ability to reproduce the trend of the overpressure is investigated. The overpressure calculated with the different models is compared with values deriving from events happened in the past and ad-hoc experiments, focusing the attention especially on medium and large scale phenomena. The ability of the models to consider different filling levels of the reservoir and different substances is analyzed too. The results of these calculations are extensively discussed. Finally some conclusive remarks are reported.

On the complexity of radiation models for PV energy production calculation

Several authors have analysed the changes of the probability density function of the solar radiation with different time resolutions. Some others have approached to study the significance of these changes when produced energy calculations are attempted. We have undertaken different transformations to four Spanish databases in order to clarify the interrelationship between radiation models and produced energy estimations. Our contribution is straightforward: the complexity of a solar radiation model needed for yearly energy calculations, is very low. Twelve values of monthly mean of solar radiation are enough to estimate energy with errors below 3%. Time resolutions better than hourly samples do not improve significantly the result of energy estimations.

Two-dimensional direct rainfall hydraulic models applied to direct calculation of hydrologic events in dams to prevent overtopping

One of the main concerns when conducting a dam test is the acute determination of the hydrograph for a specific flood event. The use of 2D direct rainfall hydraulic mathematical models on a finite elements mesh, combined with the efficiency of vector calculus that provides CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture) technology, enables nowadays the simulation of complex hydrological models without the need for terrain subbasin and transit splitting (as in HEC-HMS). Both the Spanish PNOA (National Plan of Aereal Orthophotography) Digital Terrain Model GRID with a 5 x 5 m accuracy and the CORINE GIS Land Cover (Coordination of INformation of the Environment) that allows assessment of the ground roughness, provide enough data to easily build these kind of models

Calculation of Reliability Characteristics for Regenerative Models

If a regenerative process is represented as semi-regenerative, we derive formulae enabling us to calculate basic characteristics associated with the first occurrence time starting from corresponding characteristics for the semi-regenerative process. Recursive equations, integral equations, and Monte-Carlo algorithms are proposed for practical solving of the problem.

Using Causal Models for the Calculation of Direct and Indirect Effects: An Example From Occupational Health

International audience

Preliminary modelling outcomes : calculation of holding costs in greenfield residential development

Many of the costs associated with greenfield residential development are apparent and tangible. For example, regulatory fees, government taxes, acquisition costs, selling fees, commissions and others are all relatively easily identified since they represent actual costs incurred at a given point in time. However, identification of holding costs are not always immediately evident since by contrast they characteristically lack visibility. One reason for this is that, for the most part, they are typically assessed over time in an ever-changing environment. In addition, wide variations exist in development pipeline components: they are typically represented from anywhere between a two and over sixteen years time period - even if located within the same geographical region. Determination of the starting and end points, with regards holding cost computation, can also prove problematic. Furthermore, the choice between application of prevailing inflation, or interest rates, or a combination of both over time, adds further complexity. Although research is emerging in these areas, a review of the literature reveals attempts to identify holding cost components are limited. Their quantification (in terms of relative weight or proportionate cost to a development project) is even less apparent; in fact, the computation and methodology behind the calculation of holding costs varies widely and in some instances completely ignored. In addition, it may be demonstrated that ambiguities exists in terms of the inclusion of various elements of holding costs and assessment of their relative contribution. Yet their impact on housing affordability is widely acknowledged to be profound, with their quantification potentially maximising the opportunities for delivering affordable housing. This paper seeks to build on earlier investigations into those elements related to holding costs, providing theoretical modelling of the size of their impact - specifically on the end user. At this point the research is reliant upon quantitative data sets, however additional qualitative analysis (not included here) will be relevant to account for certain variations between expectations and actual outcomes achieved by developers. Although this research stops short of cross-referencing with a regional or international comparison study, an improved understanding of the relationship between holding costs, regulatory charges, and housing affordability results.

Using Bayesian methods for the estimation of uncertainty in complex statistical models

The research objectives of this thesis were to contribute to Bayesian statistical methodology by contributing to risk assessment statistical methodology, and to spatial and spatio-temporal methodology, by modelling error structures using complex hierarchical models. Specifically, I hoped to consider two applied areas, and use these applications as a springboard for developing new statistical methods as well as undertaking analyses which might give answers to particular applied questions. Thus, this thesis considers a series of models, firstly in the context of risk assessments for recycled water, and secondly in the context of water usage by crops. The research objective was to model error structures using hierarchical models in two problems, namely risk assessment analyses for wastewater, and secondly, in a four dimensional dataset, assessing differences between cropping systems over time and over three spatial dimensions. The aim was to use the simplicity and insight afforded by Bayesian networks to develop appropriate models for risk scenarios, and again to use Bayesian hierarchical models to explore the necessarily complex modelling of four dimensional agricultural data. The specific objectives of the research were to develop a method for the calculation of credible intervals for the point estimates of Bayesian networks; to develop a model structure to incorporate all the experimental uncertainty associated with various constants thereby allowing the calculation of more credible credible intervals for a risk assessment; to model a single day’s data from the agricultural dataset which satisfactorily captured the complexities of the data; to build a model for several days’ data, in order to consider how the full data might be modelled; and finally to build a model for the full four dimensional dataset and to consider the timevarying nature of the contrast of interest, having satisfactorily accounted for possible spatial and temporal autocorrelations. This work forms five papers, two of which have been published, with two submitted, and the final paper still in draft. The first two objectives were met by recasting the risk assessments as directed, acyclic graphs (DAGs). In the first case, we elicited uncertainty for the conditional probabilities needed by the Bayesian net, incorporated these into a corresponding DAG, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to find credible intervals, for all the scenarios and outcomes of interest. In the second case, we incorporated the experimental data underlying the risk assessment constants into the DAG, and also treated some of that data as needing to be modelled as an ‘errors-invariables’ problem [Fuller, 1987]. This illustrated a simple method for the incorporation of experimental error into risk assessments. In considering one day of the three-dimensional agricultural data, it became clear that geostatistical models or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models over the three dimensions were not the best way to approach the data. Instead CAR models are used with neighbours only in the same depth layer. This gave flexibility to the model, allowing both the spatially structured and non-structured variances to differ at all depths. We call this model the CAR layered model. Given the experimental design, the fixed part of the model could have been modelled as a set of means by treatment and by depth, but doing so allows little insight into how the treatment effects vary with depth. Hence, a number of essentially non-parametric approaches were taken to see the effects of depth on treatment, with the model of choice incorporating an errors-in-variables approach for depth in addition to a non-parametric smooth. The statistical contribution here was the introduction of the CAR layered model, the applied contribution the analysis of moisture over depth and estimation of the contrast of interest together with its credible intervals. These models were fitted using WinBUGS [Lunn et al., 2000]. The work in the fifth paper deals with the fact that with large datasets, the use of WinBUGS becomes more problematic because of its highly correlated term by term updating. In this work, we introduce a Gibbs sampler with block updating for the CAR layered model. The Gibbs sampler was implemented by Chris Strickland using pyMCMC [Strickland, 2010]. This framework is then used to consider five days data, and we show that moisture in the soil for all the various treatments reaches levels particular to each treatment at a depth of 200 cm and thereafter stays constant, albeit with increasing variances with depth. In an analysis across three spatial dimensions and across time, there are many interactions of time and the spatial dimensions to be considered. Hence, we chose to use a daily model and to repeat the analysis at all time points, effectively creating an interaction model of time by the daily model. Such an approach allows great flexibility. However, this approach does not allow insight into the way in which the parameter of interest varies over time. Hence, a two-stage approach was also used, with estimates from the first-stage being analysed as a set of time series. We see this spatio-temporal interaction model as being a useful approach to data measured across three spatial dimensions and time, since it does not assume additivity of the random spatial or temporal effects.