Development of Clinical Decision Support Systems based on Mathematical Models of Physiological Systems

In the last years of research, I focused my studies on different physiological problems. Together with my supervisors, I developed/improved different mathematical models in order to create valid tools useful for a better understanding of important clinical issues. The aim of all this work is to develop tools for learning and understanding cardiac and cerebrovascular physiology as well as pathology, generating research questions and developing clinical decision support systems useful for intensive care unit patients. I. ICP-model Designed for Medical Education We developed a comprehensive cerebral blood flow and intracranial pressure model to simulate and study the complex interactions in cerebrovascular dynamics caused by multiple simultaneous alterations, including normal and abnormal functional states of auto-regulation of the brain. Individual published equations (derived from prior animal and human studies) were implemented into a comprehensive simulation program. Included in the normal physiological modelling was: intracranial pressure, cerebral blood flow, blood pressure, and carbon dioxide (CO2) partial pressure. We also added external and pathological perturbations, such as head up position and intracranial haemorrhage. The model performed clinically realistically given inputs of published traumatized patients, and cases encountered by clinicians. The pulsatile nature of the output graphics was easy for clinicians to interpret. The manoeuvres simulated include changes of basic physiological inputs (e.g. blood pressure, central venous pressure, CO2 tension, head up position, and respiratory effects on vascular pressures) as well as pathological inputs (e.g. acute intracranial bleeding, and obstruction of cerebrospinal outflow). Based on the results, we believe the model would be useful to teach complex relationships of brain haemodynamics and study clinical research questions such as the optimal head-up position, the effects of intracranial haemorrhage on cerebral haemodynamics, as well as the best CO2 concentration to reach the optimal compromise between intracranial pressure and perfusion. We believe this model would be useful for both beginners and advanced learners. It could be used by practicing clinicians to model individual patients (entering the effects of needed clinical manipulations, and then running the model to test for optimal combinations of therapeutic manoeuvres). II. A Heterogeneous Cerebrovascular Mathematical Model Cerebrovascular pathologies are extremely complex, due to the multitude of factors acting simultaneously on cerebral haemodynamics. In this work, the mathematical model of cerebral haemodynamics and intracranial pressure dynamics, described in the point I, is extended to account for heterogeneity in cerebral blood flow. The model includes the Circle of Willis, six regional districts independently regulated by autoregulation and CO2 reactivity, distal cortical anastomoses, venous circulation, the cerebrospinal fluid circulation, and the intracranial pressure-volume relationship. Results agree with data in the literature and highlight the existence of a monotonic relationship between transient hyperemic response and the autoregulation gain. During unilateral internal carotid artery stenosis, local blood flow regulation is progressively lost in the ipsilateral territory with the presence of a steal phenomenon, while the anterior communicating artery plays the major role to redistribute the available blood flow. Conversely, distal collateral circulation plays a major role during unilateral occlusion of the middle cerebral artery. In conclusion, the model is able to reproduce several different pathological conditions characterized by heterogeneity in cerebrovascular haemodynamics and can not only explain generalized results in terms of physiological mechanisms involved, but also, by individualizing parameters, may represent a valuable tool to help with difficult clinical decisions. III. Effect of Cushing Response on Systemic Arterial Pressure. During cerebral hypoxic conditions, the sympathetic system causes an increase in arterial pressure (Cushing response), creating a link between the cerebral and the systemic circulation. This work investigates the complex relationships among cerebrovascular dynamics, intracranial pressure, Cushing response, and short-term systemic regulation, during plateau waves, by means of an original mathematical model. The model incorporates the pulsating heart, the pulmonary circulation and the systemic circulation, with an accurate description of the cerebral circulation and the intracranial pressure dynamics (same model as in the first paragraph). Various regulatory mechanisms are included: cerebral autoregulation, local blood flow control by oxygen (O2) and/or CO2 changes, sympathetic and vagal regulation of cardiovascular parameters by several reflex mechanisms (chemoreceptors, lung-stretch receptors, baroreceptors). The Cushing response has been described assuming a dramatic increase in sympathetic activity to vessels during a fall in brain O2 delivery. With this assumption, the model is able to simulate the cardiovascular effects experimentally observed when intracranial pressure is artificially elevated and maintained at constant level (arterial pressure increase and bradicardia). According to the model, these effects arise from the interaction between the Cushing response and the baroreflex response (secondary to arterial pressure increase). Then, patients with severe head injury have been simulated by reducing intracranial compliance and cerebrospinal fluid reabsorption. With these changes, oscillations with plateau waves developed. In these conditions, model results indicate that the Cushing response may have both positive effects, reducing the duration of the plateau phase via an increase in cerebral perfusion pressure, and negative effects, increasing the intracranial pressure plateau level, with a risk of greater compression of the cerebral vessels. This model may be of value to assist clinicians in finding the balance between clinical benefits of the Cushing response and its shortcomings. IV. Comprehensive Cardiopulmonary Simulation Model for the Analysis of Hypercapnic Respiratory Failure We developed a new comprehensive cardiopulmonary model that takes into account the mutual interactions between the cardiovascular and the respiratory systems along with their short-term regulatory mechanisms. The model includes the heart, systemic and pulmonary circulations, lung mechanics, gas exchange and transport equations, and cardio-ventilatory control. Results show good agreement with published patient data in case of normoxic and hyperoxic hypercapnia simulations. In particular, simulations predict a moderate increase in mean systemic arterial pressure and heart rate, with almost no change in cardiac output, paralleled by a relevant increase in minute ventilation, tidal volume and respiratory rate. The model can represent a valid tool for clinical practice and medical research, providing an alternative way to experience-based clinical decisions. In conclusion, models are not only capable of summarizing current knowledge, but also identifying missing knowledge. In the former case they can serve as training aids for teaching the operation of complex systems, especially if the model can be used to demonstrate the outcome of experiments. In the latter case they generate experiments to be performed to gather the missing data.

The deadly broomstick: an unusual missile injury to the neck

A 51-year-old man was struck by the tip of a broomstick weighing 1000 g at the left side of the neck, upon which he collapsed. Intense but delayed cardiopulmonary resuscitation restored the circulation roughly 30 minutes after the incident. Upon admittance to a nearby hospital, an extensive hypoxic cerebral damage was diagnosed. Death due to the severe cerebral damage occurred 5 hours after the incident. An autopsy demonstrated a severe subcutaneous traumatization of the left side of the neck, with a hemorrhage compressing the carotid bifurcation. A prolonged excitation due to this ongoing compression of the baroreceptors in the carotid sinus was assumed to have led to a cardiac arrest. In this case report, the authors discuss the underlying pathophysiology of this potentially lethal and rare reflexogenic incident also known as the Hering reflex and discuss possible therapeutic measures.

Acute device-based blood pressure reduction: electrical activation of the carotid baroreflex in patients undergoing elective carotid surgery

Carotid sinus baroreceptors are involved in controlling blood pressure (BP) by providing input to the cardiovascular regulatory centers of the medulla. The acute effect of temporarily placing an electrode on the carotid sinus wall to electrically activate the baroreflex was investigated. We studied 11 patients undergoing elective carotid surgery. Baseline BP was 146+30/66+/-17 mm Hg and heart rate (HR) 72+/-7 bpm (mean +/- standard deviation). An electrode was placed upon the carotid sinus and after obtaining a steady state baseline of BP and HR, an electric current was applied and increased in 1-volt increments. A voltage dependent and highly significant reduction in BP was observed which averaged 18+/-26* and 8.0+/-12 mm Hg for systolic BP and diastolic BP, respectively. Maximal reductions occurred at 4.4+/-1.2 V: 23+/-24 mm Hg*, 16+/-10 mm Hg* and 7+/-12 bpm* for systolic BP, diastolic BP and HR, respectively ( = p <.05). Thus, electrical stimulation of the carotid sinus activates the carotid baroreflex resulting in a reduction in BP and HR. This presents a proof of concept for device based baroreflex modulation in acute BP regulation and adds to the available data which provide a rationale for evaluating this system in the context of chronic BP reduction in hypertensive patients.

[Cross-talk between heart and kidney--mechanisms and management of the cardiorenal syndrome from a nephrologists view]

Renal dysfunction represents a frequent comorbidity in patients with in chronic heart failure and is not only a strong predictor of mortality, but also causally linked to the development and progression of CHF. Mechanisms involved in the cross-talk between the kidney and the heart include the up-regulated sympathetic nerve system, activation of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system, vasopressin release and decreased activity of arterial baroreceptors and natriuretic peptides resulting in abnormal salt and water retention. The main therapeutic goals for patients with the so-called cardiorenal syndrome is the normalization of volume status while avoiding overdiuresis and renal dysfunction as well as the implementation of an evidence-based pharmacologic treatment to improve patient outcome. If these two goals are not achieved with conventional therapy, renal replacement therapy should be discussed in an interdisciplinary approach. All current renal replacement techniques have proved to be useful in controlling hypervolemia and ameliorating functional cardiac parameters and quality of life in patients with heart failure. Nevertheless, the influence of renal replacement therapy on long-term survival of affected patients has not been addressed in large controlled studies.

A cardiovascular mathematical model of graded head-up tilt

A lumped parameter model of the cardiovascular system has been developed and optimized using experimental data obtained from 13 healthy subjects during graded head-up tilt (HUT) from the supine position to [Formula: see text]. The model includes descriptions of the left and right heart, direct ventricular interaction through the septum and pericardium, the systemic and pulmonary circulations, nonlinear pressure volume relationship of the lower body compartment, arterial and cardiopulmonary baroreceptors, as well as autoregulatory mechanisms. A number of important features, including the separate effects of arterial and cardiopulmonary baroreflexes, and autoregulation in the lower body, as well as diastolic ventricular interaction through the pericardium have been included and tested for their significance. Furthermore, the individual effect of parameter associated with heart failure, including LV and RV contractility, baseline systemic vascular resistance, pulmonary vascular resistance, total blood volume, LV diastolic stiffness and reflex gain on HUT response have also been investigated. Our fitted model compares favorably with our experimental measurements and published literature at a range of tilt angles, in terms of both global and regional hemodynamic variables. Compared to the normal condition, a simulated congestive heart failure condition produced a blunted response to HUT with regards to the percentage changes in cardiac output, stroke volume, end diastolic volume and effector response (i.e., heart contractility, venous unstressed volume, systemic vascular resistance and heart rate) with progressive tilting.

Dietary enrichment by almond supplementation: effects on risk factors for cardiovascular disease

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in Europe responsible for more than 4.3 million deaths annually. The World Health Organisation funded the Monica project (1980s-1990s) which monitored ten million subjects aged 22-6Syrs, and demonstrated that coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality declined over 10 years, was due in two thirds of cases to reduced incidence of CHD (reduced risk behaviours e.g. poor diet and smoking) and one third by improved treatments. Epidemiological evidence suggests diets rich in antioxidants decrease incidence of CVD. Regular consumption of nuts, rich in vitamin E and polyphenols reduces atherosclerosis, an important risk for heart disease. Intervention studies to date using alpha tocopherol (an active component of vitamin E) have not consistently proved beneficial. This thesis aims to investigate the effect of almond supplementation on vascular risk factors in healthy young males (18-3Syrs); mature males and female(>SOyrs); and males considered at increased risk of CVD (18-3Syrs) in a cohort of 67 subjects. The effects of almond intake were assessed after 2Sg/d for four weeks followed by SOg/d for four weeks and compared to a control group which did not consume almonds or change their diet. Cardiovascular risk was assessed by plasma lipid profiles, apolipoprotein A1, plasma nitrates/nitrates, vascular flow, BMl, blood pressure, sVCAM-1 and protein oxidation. Systolic and diastolic blood pressures were reduced in almond supplemented volunteers but not in controls. Dietary monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acid content and total dietary fats were increased by almond supplementation. Neither sVCAM-1, venous occlusion plethysmography nor plasma nitrite levels were affected by almond intake in any independent group. No significant changes in plasma lipids, and apolipoprotein A1 were observed. In conclusion almonds supplementation caused a reduction in blood pressure that may be due to increased sensitivity of the baroreceptors after increased monounsaturated fatty acid intake.