Igazolható-e az üzleti ciklus az iparágak viselkedésével? = Can business cycles be proved with the behavior of enterprises?

A dolgozat alapja egy olyan Leontief-típusú gazdaság, ahol minden egyes ágazatban egy vállalat termel, tehát monopóliumokból áll a gazdaság. A vállalatok termelnek, és a termékeiket a piacon értékesítik. A gazdaság mozgásegyenleteit a vállalati mérleg összefüggések, valamint a piaci csere után a gazdaságban, a termékek készletváltozása írja le. Az így létrejött mozgásegyenletekből arra következtethetünk, hogy a ciklusok egy ilyen modellben szükségszerűen kialakulnak, tehát az üzleti ciklus a gazdaság működéséhez hozzátartozik. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: D46, E32. = The aim of the paper is to analyze a Leontief-type economy, i.e. all firms produce only one product and only one technology. The firms sell the products on a monopolistic market. The move of this economy is controlled by the balance sheet expressions and the inventory level fluctuations. The differential equations of the move of this economy show a cyclical movement of the economy along the balanced growth path. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: D46, E32.

The resource conservation effect of recycling in a dynamic Leontief model

The aim of the paper is to investigate the impact of recycling on the use of non-renewable resources in the economy. The paper tries to generalize the classical dynamic input–output model. In this regard we extend the standard Leontief model with the balance equation of recycled products, and we establish some properties of this augmented model. We investigate how recycling extends the availability of non-renewable natural resources for the next generations in an inter-industry framework. Supposing a balanced growth both for production and consumption, we examine the existence of the balanced growth path of this model and compare the results to the classical Leontief model. We try to answer the question whether recycling/reuse increases the growth possibility of an economy. Finally, we illustrate our results with a simple numerical example. Thus, we analyze a possible sustainable development of the economy on the basis of the product recovery management of industries.

Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth

[eng] We analyze the equilibrium of a multi-sector exogenous growth model where the introduction of minimum consumption requirements drives structural change. We show that equilibrium dynamics simultaneously exhibt structural change and balanced growth of aggregate variables as is observed in US when the initial intensity of minimum consumption requirements is sufficiently small. This intensity is measured by the ratio between the aggregate value of the minimum consumption requirements and GDP and, therefore, it is inversely related with the level of economic development. Initially rich economies benefit from an initially low intensity of the minimum consumption requirements and, as a consequence, these economies end up exhibiting balanced growth of aggregate variables, while there is structural change. In contrast, initially poor economies suffer from an initially large intensity of the minimum consumption requirements, which makes the growth of the aggregate variables unbalanced during a very large period. These economies may never exhibit simultaneously balanced growth of aggregate variables and structural change.

Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth

[eng] We analyze the equilibrium of a multi-sector exogenous growth model where the introduction of minimum consumption requirements drives structural change. We show that equilibrium dynamics simultaneously exhibt structural change and balanced growth of aggregate variables as is observed in US when the initial intensity of minimum consumption requirements is sufficiently small. This intensity is measured by the ratio between the aggregate value of the minimum consumption requirements and GDP and, therefore, it is inversely related with the level of economic development. Initially rich economies benefit from an initially low intensity of the minimum consumption requirements and, as a consequence, these economies end up exhibiting balanced growth of aggregate variables, while there is structural change. In contrast, initially poor economies suffer from an initially large intensity of the minimum consumption requirements, which makes the growth of the aggregate variables unbalanced during a very large period. These economies may never exhibit simultaneously balanced growth of aggregate variables and structural change.

Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth

[eng] We analyze the equilibrium of a multi-sector exogenous growth model where the introduction of minimum consumption requirements drives structural change. We show that equilibrium dynamics simultaneously exhibt structural change and balanced growth of aggregate variables as is observed in US when the initial intensity of minimum consumption requirements is sufficiently small. This intensity is measured by the ratio between the aggregate value of the minimum consumption requirements and GDP and, therefore, it is inversely related with the level of economic development. Initially rich economies benefit from an initially low intensity of the minimum consumption requirements and, as a consequence, these economies end up exhibiting balanced growth of aggregate variables, while there is structural change. In contrast, initially poor economies suffer from an initially large intensity of the minimum consumption requirements, which makes the growth of the aggregate variables unbalanced during a very large period. These economies may never exhibit simultaneously balanced growth of aggregate variables and structural change.

Two-polar growth strategy in Myanmar : seeking "high" and "balanced" development

The Thein Sein government of Myanmar seeks higher and balanced economic growth. This is a challenge for the government since some economic literature identifies a trade-off between higher economic growth and better regional equality, especially for countries in the early stages of development. In this paper, we propose a two-polar growth strategy as one that includes both "high" and "balanced" growth. The first growth pole is Yangon, and the second is Mandalay. Nay Pyi Taw, the national capital, will develop as an administrative centre, not as an economic or commercial one. We also propose border development with enhanced connectivity with richer neighboring countries as a complementary strategy to the two growth poles. Effects of the two-polar growth strategy with border development are tested using a Geographical Simulation Model (GSM).

What determines the finance-growth nexus? Empirical evidence for threshold models

This paper elaborates the notion of balanced'' financial development that is contingent on a country's general level of development. We develop an empirical framework to address this point, referring to threshold regressions and a bootstrap test for structural shift in a growth equation. We find that countries gain less from financial activity, if the latter fails to keep up with or exceeds what would follow from a balanced expansion path. These analyses contribute to the finance and growth literature in providing empirical support for the balanced'' financial development hypothesis.

Labor's shares - aggregate and industry: accounting for both in a model of unbalanced growth with induced innovation

The relative stability of aggregate labor's share constitutes one of the great macroeconomic ratios. However, relative stability at the aggregate level masks the unbalanced nature of industry labor's shares – the Kuznets stylized facts underlie those of Kaldor. We present a two-sector – one labor-only and the other using both capital and labor – model of unbalanced economic development with induced innovation that can rationalize these phenomena as well as several other empirical regularities of actual economies. Specifically, the model features (i) one sector ("goods" production) becoming increasingly capital-intensive over time; (ii) an increasing relative price and share in total output of the labor-only sector ("services"); and (iii) diverging sectoral labor's shares despite (iii) an aggregate labor's share that converges from above to a value between 0 and unity. Furthermore, the model (iv) supports either a neoclassical steadystate or long-run endogenous growth, giving it the potential to account for a wide range of real world development experiences.

Dual boundary element formulation applied to analysis of multi-fractured domains

This paper deals with analysis of multiple random crack propagation in two-dimensional domains using the boundary element method (BEM). BEM is known to be a robust and accurate numerical technique for analysing this type of problem. The formulation adopted in this work is based on the dual BEM, for which singular and hyper-singular integral equations are used. We propose an iterative scheme to predict the crack growth path and the crack length increment at each time step. The proposed scheme able us to simulate localisation and coalescence phenomena, which is the main contribution of this paper. Considering the fracture mechanics analysis, the displacement correlation technique is applied to evaluate the stress intensity factors. The propagation angle and the equivalent stress intensity factor are calculated using the theory of maximum circumferential stress. Examples of simple and multi-fractured domains, loaded up to the rupture, are considered to illustrate the applicability of the proposed scheme. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A BEM model applied to failure analysis of multi-fractured structures

Due to manufacturing or damage process, brittle materials present a large number of micro-cracks which are randomly distributed. The lifetime of these materials is governed by crack propagation under the applied mechanical and thermal loadings. In order to deal with these kinds of materials, the present work develops a boundary element method (BEM) model allowing for the analysis of multiple random crack propagation in plane structures. The adopted formulation is based on the dual BEM, for which singular and hyper-singular integral equations are used. An iterative scheme to predict the crack growth path and crack length increment is proposed. This scheme enables us to simulate the localization and coalescence phenomena, which are the main contribution of this paper. Considering the fracture mechanics approach, the displacement correlation technique is applied to evaluate the stress intensity factors. The propagation angle and the equivalent stress intensity factor are calculated using the theory of maximum circumferential stress. Examples of multi-fractured domains, loaded up to rupture, are considered to illustrate the applicability of the proposed method. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic models of energy allocation and investment

In dynamic models of energy allocation, assimilated energy is allocated to reproduction, somatic growth, maintenance or storage, and the allocation pattern can change with age. The expected evolutionary outcome is an optimal allocation pattern, but this depends on the environment experienced during the evolutionary process and on the fitness costs and benefits incurred by allocating resources in different ways. Here we review existing treatments which encompass some of the possibilities as regards constant or variable environments and their predictability or unpredictability, and the ways in which production rates and mortality rates depend on body size and composition and age and on the pattern of energy allocation. The optimal policy is to allocate resources where selection pressures are highest, and simultaneous allocation to several body subsystems and reproduction can be optimal if these pressures are equal. This may explain balanced growth commonly observed during ontogeny. Growth ceases at maturity in many models; factors favouring growth after maturity include non-linear trade-offs, variable season length, and production and mortality rates both increasing (or decreasing) functions of body size. We cannot yet say whether these are sufficient to account for the many known cases of growth after maturity and not all reasonable models have yet been explored. Factors favouring storage are also reviewed.

Market of biomass fuels in Finland : IEA Bioenergy Task 40 and EUBIONET III - Country report of Finland 2009

This study considered the current situation of solid and liquid biomass fuels in Finland. The fact that industry consumes more than half of the total primary energy, widely applied combined heat and power production and a high share of solid biomass fuels in the total energy consumption are specific to the Finnish energy system. Wood is the most important source of bioenergy in Finland, representing 20% of the total energy consumption in 2007. Almost 80% of the woodbased energy is recovered from industrial by-products and residues. As a member of the European Union, Finland has committed itself to the Union’s climate and energy targets, such as reducing its overall emissions of green house gases to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020, and increasing the share of renewable energy in the gross final consumption. The renewable energy target approved for Finland is 38%. The present National Climate and Energy Strategy was introduced in November 2008. The strategy covers climate and energy policy measures up to 2020, and in brief thereafter, up to 2050. In recent years, the actual emissions have exceeded the Kyoto commitment and the trend of emissions is on the increase. In 2007, the share of renewable energy in the gross final energy consumption was approximately 25% (360 PJ). Without new energy policy measures, the final consumption of renewable energy would increase to 380 PJ, which would be approximately only 31% of the final energy consumption. In addition, green house gas emissions would exceed the 1990 levels by 20%. Meeting the targets will need the adoption of more active energy policy measures in coming years. The international trade of biomass fuels has a substantial importance for the utilisation of bioenergy in Finland. In 2007, the total international trading of solid and liquid biomass fuels was approximately 77 PJ, of which import was 62 PJ. Most of the import is indirect and takes place within the forest industry’s raw wood imports. In 2007, as much as 21% of wood energy was based on foreign-origin wood. Wood pellets and tall oil form the majority of export streams of biomass fuels. The indirect import of wood fuels peaked in 2006 to 61 PJ. The foreseeable decline in raw wood import to Finland will decrease the indirect import of wood fuels. In 2004– 2007, the direct trade of solid and liquid biomass fuels has been on a moderate growth path. In 2007, the import of palm oil and export of bio-diesel emerged, as a large, 170 000 t/yr biodiesel plant came into operation in Porvoo.

Crescimento e industrialização no Brasil: uma interpretação à luz das propostas de Kaldor

Growth and industrialization in Brazil. In this paper, based on the writings of Kaldor and his followers, we compare two phases of Brazilian economic growth, one showing fast growth rate and other with lack of growth. Our aim is to analyze the Brazilian economic behavior in the last 40 years, pointing out economic policy intervention, structural change, foreign trade and capital flows as determinants to account for gross product development path performance. Our aim is to shed some light on which is the potential rate of growth of the Brazilian economy nowadays, considering its historical growth path and recent structural changes in the industrial sector.

Efficacy of Cluster- Based Approach for the revival of Handloom Co-operative Societies in Kerala- with special reference to Thiruvananthapuram and Kannur Districts

one of the key sectors, identified by the Department of Industries Government of Kerala, for the cluster development initiative is Handloom, which gives employment to over over 50,000 people directly. Despite its age old tradition and fame, the performance of the sector vis-à-vis power looms is not very rosy owing to (i) competition from cheap power loom cloth from other states (ii) scarcity of quality yarn (iii) price escalation of yarn, dyes, chemicals and other raw materials (iv) the shrinking market for handlooms in Kerala (v) non-demand based production and inadequacy of new designs and (vi) inefficiencies in the system, particularly in the co-operative sector. Cluster based approach is adopted in the handloom sector with the objective of providing necessary support mechanism to come out of the crisis that the sector faces now. While four cluster schemes are being implemented in Kerala, it is under IHDS-CDP that the State got a sizeable number of clusters benefiting a large number of societies and weavers- 24 handloom clusters, bringing 152 handloom co-operative societies and over 19,800 handloom workers under the Programme. This research attempts to revisit the underlying rationale and context of the new direction and would attempt to broadly analyze the growth trends under the influence of cluster model adopted by the State IHDS-CDP for the revival of handloom sector through a detailed study of the handloom co-operative societies in Kerala. If handloom sector in Kerala can be revived using cluster based approach, it can be easily concluded that cluster is capable of taking the MSME in Kerala to a ‘high growth path.’ The study is aimed at understanding how best clusters emerge as appropriate industrial organization suitable for the current global structure of manufacture

Whither Japan's Economy?

The Japanese economy entered a long recession in spring 1997. Its economic growth has been much lower than in the US and the EU despite large fiscal stimulus packages, a monetary policy which has brought interest rates to zero since 1999, injections of public money to recapitalize banks, and programs of liberalization and deregulation. How could all these policies have failed to bring the Japanese economy back on a sustainable growth path? This paper argues that the failure of Japan's efforts to restore a sound economic environment is the result of having deliberately chosen inappropriate and inadequate monetary and fiscal instruments to tackle the macroeconomic and structural problems that have burdened the Japanese economy since the burst of the financial bubble at the beginning of the 90s. These choices were deliberate, since the "right" policies (in primis the resolution of the banking crisis) presented unbearable political costs, not only for the ruling parties, but also for the bureaucratic and business elites. The misfortunes of the Japanese economy during the long recession not only allow us to draw important economic policy lessons, but also stimulate reflections on the disruptive role on economic policies caused by powerful vested interests when an economy needs broad and deep structural changes. The final part of the paper focuses on ways to tackle Japan's banking crisis. In particular, it explores the Scandinavian solution, which, mutatis mutandis, might serve Japanese policy-makers well.