Continuous opinions and discrete actions in opinion dynamics problems

A model where agents show discrete behavior regarding their actions, but have continuous opinions that are updated by interacting with other agents is presented. This new updating rule is applied to both the voter and Sznajd models for interaction between neighbors, and its consequences are discussed. The appearance of extremists is naturally observed and it seems to be a characteristic of this model.

Communism and Public Opinion in Queensland, 1939-1951 : An Explanation of Queensland's Vote in the 1951 Anti-Communist Referendum

The starting point of this thesis was a desire to explain the rapid demise in the popularity which the Communist Party enjoyed in Queensland during the second world war. Wartime Queensland gave the Australian Communist Party its highest state vote and six years later Queensland again gave the Communist Party its highest state vote - this time however, to ban the Party. From this I was led into exploring the changing policies, beliefs and strategies of the Party, as well as the many sub-groups on its periphery, and the shifts in public response to these. In 1939 Townsville elected Australia's first Communist alderman. Five years later, Bowen elected not only Australia's first but also the British Empire's first, Communist state government member. Of the five electorates the Australian Communist Party contested in the 1944 Queensland State elections, in none did the Party's candidate receive less than twenty per-cent of the formal vote. Not only was the Party seemingly enjoying considerable popular support but this was occurring in a State which, but for the Depression years (May 1929 - June 1932) had elected a Labor State Government at every state election since 1915. In the September 1951 Constitution Alteration Referendum, 'Powers To Deal With Communists and Communism', Queensland regist¬ered the nation's highest "Yes" majority - 55.76% of the valid vote. Only two other states registered a majority in favour of the referendum's proposals, Western Australia and Tasmania. As this research was undertaken it became evident that while various trends exhibited at the time, anti-Communism, the work of the Industrial Groups, Labor opportunism, local area feelings, ideological shifts of the Party, tactics of Communist-led unions, etc., were present throughout the entire period, they were best seen when divided into three chronological phases of the Party's history and popularity. The first period covers the consolidation of the Party's post-Depression popularity during the war years as it benefited from the Soviet Union's colossal contribution to the Allied war efforts, and this support continued for some six months or so after the war. Throughout the period Communist strength within the trade union movement greatly increased as did total Party membership. The second period was marked by a rapid series of events starting in March 1946, with Winston Churchill's "Official Opening" of the Cold War by his sweeping attack on Communism and Russia, at Fulton. Several days later the first of a series of long and bitter strikes in Communist-led unions occurred, as the Party mobil¬ized for what it believed would be a series of attacks on the working class from a ruling class, defending a capitalist system on the verge of an economic collapse. It was a period when the Party believed this ruling class was using Labor reformism as a last desperate 'carrot' to get workers to accept their lot within a capitalist economic framework. Out of the Meat Strike emerged the Industrial Groups, who waged not only a determined war against Communist trade union leadership but also encouraged the A.W.U.-influenced State Labor apparatus to even greater anti-Communist antagonisms. The Communist Party's increasing militancy and Labor's resistance to it, ended finally in the collapse of the Chifley Labor government. Characteristically the third period opens with the Communist Party making an another about-face, desperately trying to form an alliance with the Labor Party and curbing its former adventurist industrial policy, as it prepared for Menzies' direct assault. The Communist Party's activities were greatly reduced, a function of both a declining member-ship and, furthermore, a membership reluctant to confront an increasingly hostile society. In examining the changing policies, beliefs and strategies of the Party and the shifts in public response to these, I have tried to distinguish between general trends occurring within Australia and the national party, and trends peculiar to Queensland and the Queensland branch of the Party, The Communist Party suffered a decline in support and membership right across Australia throughout this period as a result of the national policies of the Party, and the changing nature of world politics. There were particular features of this decline that were peculiar to Queensland. I have, however, singled out three features of particular importance throughout the period for a short but more specifically detailed analysis, than would be possible in a purely chronological study: i.e. the Party's structure, the Party's ideological subservience to Moscow, and the general effect upon it of the Cold War.

Combining GIS and Expert Opinion to Model Landscapes for a Smallholder Forest Extension Program in Leyte, the Philippines

A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to model datasets of Leyte Island, the Philippines, to identify land which was suitable for a forest extension program on the island. The datasets were modelled to provide maps of the distance of land from cities and towns, land which was a suitable elevation and slope for smallholder forestry and land of various soil types. An expert group was used to assign numeric site suitabilities to the soil types and maps of site suitability were used to assist the selection of municipalities for the provision of extension assistance to smallholders. Modelling of the datasets was facilitated by recent developments of the ArcGIS® suite of computer programs and derivation of elevation and slope was assisted by the availability of digital elevation models (DEM) produced by the Shuttle Radar Topography (SRTM) mission. The usefulness of GIS software as a decision support tool for small-scale forestry extension programs is discussed.

Lessons from a comprehensive clinical audit of users of psychiatric services who committed suicide

Objective: Characteristics of patients who committed suicide were examined to provide a picture of the treatment they received before death and to determine whether and how the suicides could have been pre vented by the service system. Methods: The unnatural-deaths register was matched to the psychiatric case register in the state of Victoria in Australia to identify suicides by people with a history of public-sector psychiatric service use who committed suicide between July 1, 1989, and June 30, 1994. Data on patient and treatment characteristics were examined by three experienced clinicians, who made judgments about whether the suicide could have been prevented had the service system responded differently. Quantitative and qualitative data were descriptively analyzed. Results: A total of 629 psychiatric patients who had committed suicide were identified. Seventy-two percent of the patients were male, 62 percent were under 40 years old, and 51 percent were unmarried. They had a range of disorders, with the most common being schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder (36 percent). Sixty-seven percent had previously attempted suicide. A total of 311 patients (49 percent) received care within four weeks of death. Twenty percent of the suicides were considered preventable. Key factors associated with preventability were poor staff-patient relationships, incomplete assessments, poor assessment and treatment of depression and psychological problems, and poor continuity of care. Conclusions: Opportunities exist for the psychiatric service system to alter practices at several levels and thereby reduce patient suicides.

Developing a reliable audit instrument to measure the physical environment for physical activity

Background: The physical environment plays an important role in influencing participation in physical activity, although which factors of the physical environment have the greatest effect on patterns of activity remain to be determined. We describe the development of a comprehensive instrument to measure the physical environmental factors that may influence walking and cycling in local neighborhoods and report on its reliability. Methods: Following consultation with experts from a variety of fields and a literature search, we developed a Systematic Pedestrian and Cycling Environmental Scan (SPACES) instrument and used it to collect data over a total of 1987 kilometers of roads in metropolitan Perth, Western Australia. The audit instrument is available from the first author on request. Additional environmental information was collected using desktop methods and geographic information systems (GIS) technology. We assessed inter- and intra-rater reliability of the instrument among the 16 observers who collected the data. Results: The observers reported that the audit instrument was easy to use. Both inter- and intra-rater reliability of the environmental scan instrument were generally high. Conclusions: Our instrument provides a reliable, practical, and easy to-use method for collecting detailed street-level data on physical environmental factors that are potential influences on walking in local neighborhoods.

National audit of anaesthesia for major abdominal surgery

A postal survey was conducted of all hospitals in Australia known to have a department of anaesthesia and an intensive care or high dependency unit. Each hospital was asked to report the anaesthetic and postoperative analgesic techniques used for the last ten cases of four common major surgical procedures-aorto-femoral bypass, repair of an abdominal aortic aneurysm, hemicolectomy and anterior resection of the rectum. Half of 76 hospitals sent a survey form completed and returned it. Responding hospitals were larger on average, than non-responding ones, but otherwise typical of them in terms of university affiliation and metropolitan versus rural location. For each of the procedures studied the proportion of cases in which epidural block was used intra- or postoperatively varied from 0% to 100%. Depending on the procedure, between 65% and 85% of hospitals used epidural block sometimes, with between 10% and 90% of patients in these hospitals being managed with this technique. There is wide variation in the use of epidural block, intra- and postoperatively, in Australia, variation that is unlikely to be explained by systematic differences between institutions in the patients seen or their suitability for one or other technique. This pattern of practice mirrors the lack of agreement about the proper place for epidural techniques evident in the recent literature. There is a widespread belief among clinicians that this is a question of great importance. Accordingly, we believe that anaesthetists and surgeons share an ethical responsibility to enter suitable patients in an appropriately designed randomized controlled trial in order to resolve this question.

The Fast Alcohol Screening Test (FAST) is as Good as the AUDIT to Screen Alcohol Use Disorders

This study was aimed at assessing the psychometric qualities of the fast alcohol screening test (FAST), and at comparing these qualities to those of the alcohol use disorders identification test (AUDIT) in three samples of Brazilian adults: (i) subjects attended at an emergency department (530); (ii) patients from a psychosocial care center (40); and (iii) university students (429). The structured clinical interview for diagnosis (SCID)-IV was used as gold standard. The FAST demonstrated high test-retest and interrater reliability coefficients, as well as high predictive and concurrent validity values. The results attest the validity and reliability of the Brazilian version of the FAST for the screening of indicators of alcohol abuse and dependence.

Is the Full Version of the AUDIT Really Necessary? Study of the Validity and Internal Construct of Its Abbreviated Versions

Background: This study was aimed at assessing the psychometric qualities of the abbreviated versions of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT-3, AUDIT-4, AUDIT-C, AUDIT-PC, AUDIT-QF, FAST, and Five-Shot) and at comparing them to the 10-item AUDIT and the CAGE in 2 samples of Brazilian adults. Methods: The validity and internal consistency of the scales were assessed in a sample of 530 subjects attended at an emergency department and at a Psychosocial Care Center for Alcohol and Drugs. The Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV was used as the diagnostic comparative measure for the predictive validity assessment. The concurrent validity between the scales was analyzed by means of Pearson`s correlation coefficient. Results: The assessment of the predictive validity of the abbreviated versions showed high sensitivity (of 0.78 to 0.96) and specificity (of 0.74 to 0.94) indices, with areas under the curve as elevated as those of the AUDIT (0.89 and 0.92 to screen for abuse and 0.93 and 0.95 in the screening of dependence). The CAGE presented lower indices: 0.81 for abuse and 0.87 for dependence. The analysis of the internal consistency of the AUDIT and its versions exhibited Cronbach`s alpha coefficients between 0.83 and 0.94, while the coefficient for the CAGE was 0.78. Significant correlations were found between the 10-item AUDIT and its versions, ranging from 0.91 to 0.99. Again, the results for the CAGE were satisfactory (0.77), although inferior to the other instruments. Conclusions: The results obtained in this study confirm the validity of the abbreviated versions of the AUDIT for the screening of alcohol use disorders and show that their psychometric properties are as satisfactory as those of the 10-item AUDIT and the CAGE.