The teleconnection of the tropical Atlantic to Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures on inter-annual to centennial time scales: a review of recent findings

In this paper, the teleconnections from the tropical Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region from inter-annual to centennial time scales will be reviewed. Identified teleconnections and hypotheses on mechanisms at work are reviewed and further explored in a century-long pacemaker coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation ensemble. There is a substantial impact of the tropical Atlantic on the Pacific region at inter-annual time scales. An Atlantic Niño (Niña) event leads to rising (sinking) motion in the Atlantic region, which is compensated by sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific. The sinking (rising) motion in the central-western Pacific induces easterly (westerly) surface wind anomalies just to the west, which alter the thermocline. These perturbations propagate eastward as upwelling (downwelling) Kelvin-waves, where they increase the probability for a La Niña (El Niño) event. Moreover, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies are also able to lead La Niña/El Niño development. At multidecadal time scales, a positive (negative) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation leads to a cooling (warming) of the eastern Pacific and a warming (cooling) of the western Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The physical mechanism for this impact is similar to that at inter-annual time scales. At centennial time scales, the Atlantic warming induces a substantial reduction of the eastern Pacific warming even under CO2 increase and to a strong subsurface cooling.

Multidecadal climate variability in Brazil's Nordeste during the last 3000 years based on speleothem isotope records

We present the first high resolution, approximately similar to 4 years sample spacing, precipitation record from northeastern Brazil (hereafter referred to as 'Nordeste') covering the last similar to 3000 yrs from Th-230-dated stalagmites oxygen isotope records. Our record shows abrupt fluctuations in rainfall tied to variations in the intensity of the South American summer monsoon (SASM), including the periods corresponding to the Little Ice Age (LIA), the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and an event around 2800 yr B.P. Unlike other monsoon records in southern tropical South America, dry conditions prevailed during the LIA in the Nordeste. Our record suggests that the region is currently undergoing drought conditions that are unprecedented over the past 3 millennia, rivaled only by the LIA period. Using spectral, wavelet and cross-wavelet analyses we show that changes in SASM activity in the region are mainly associated with variations of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and to a lesser degree caused by fluctuations in tropical Pacific SST. Our record also shows a distinct periodicity around 210 years, which has been linked to solar variability. Citation: Novello, V. F., et al. (2012), Multidecadal climate variability in Brazil's Nordeste during the last 3000 years based on speleothem isotope records, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L23706, doi: 10.1029/2012GL053936.

Multidecadal variability of the continental precipitation annual amplitude driven by AMO and ENSO

As the water vapor content in the atmosphere scales with temperature, a warmer world is expected to feature an intensification of the hydrological cycle. Work to date has mainly focused on mean precipitation changes, whose connection to climatic modes is elusive at a global scale. Here we show that continental precipitation annual amplitude, which represents the annual range between minimum and maximum (monthly) rainfall, covaries with a linear combination of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and low-frequency variations in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on a decadal to multidecadal scale with a correlation coefficient of 0.92 (P<0.01). The teleconnection is a result of changes in moisture transport in key regions. Reported trends in the annual amplitude of global precipitation in recent decades need to be assessed in light of this substantial low-frequency variability, which could mask or enhance an anthropogenic signal in hydrological cycle changes.

Multidecadal climate oscillations detected in a transparency record from a subtropical Florida lake

Synchronous interannual variability in water transparency observed in neighboring lakes has been linked to regional precipitation and resultant runoff of dissolved organic material, but many climate forcings oscillate over time scales longer than most limnological records can detect. A strong relationship (R2 5 0.86) between transparency and the previous two years’ rainfall and lake stage in a 25-yr record from a Florida lake enabled us to hindcast transparency from a longer 75-yr record of rainfall and lake stage. Predictions revealed a ,30-yr cycle in transparency linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Transparency was greatest (4–8 m) in the cool phase of the AMO (,1962–1993) associated with below-average rainfall in south Florida and lowest (0.1– 3.0 m) during two warm phases (,1932–1961, 1994–present) associated with above-average, but more variable, annual rainfall. Models that predict effects of large-scale hydrologic restoration projects on solute export from South Florida’s expansive wetlands need to account for recent entry into a warm AMO phase, where teleconnections between the AMO phases and runoff are opposite of those shown for the U.S. interior.

Is the Russell Cycle a true cycle? Multidecadal zooplankton and climate trends in the western English Channel

The Russell Cycle is one of the classical examples of climate influence on biological oceanography, represented as shifts in the marine plankton over several decades with warm and cool conditions. While the time-series data associated with the phenomenon indicate cyclical patterns, the question remains whether or not the Russell Cycle should be considered a “true cycle”. Zooplankton time-series data from 1924 to 2011 from the western English Channel were analysed with principal component (PC), correlation and spectral analyses to determine the dominant trends, and cyclic frequencies of the Russell Cycle indicators in relation to long-term hydroclimatic indices. PC1 accounted for 37.4% of the variability in the zooplankton data with the main contributions from non-clupeid fish larvae, southwestern zooplankton, and overall zooplankton biovolume. For PC2 (14.6% of data variance), the dominant groups were northern fish larvae, non-sardine eggs, and southern fish larvae. Sardine eggs were the major contributors to PC3 (representing 12.1% of data variance). No significant correlations were observed between the above three components and climate indices: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and local seawater temperature. Significant 44- and 29-year frequencies were observed for PC3, but the physical mechanisms driving the cycles are unclear. Harmonic analysis did not reveal any significant frequencies in the physical variables or in PCs 1 and 2. To a large extent, this is due to the dominant cycles in all datasets generally being long term (>50 years or so) and not readily resolved in the examined time frame of 88 years, hence restricting the ability to draw firm conclusions on the multidecadal relationship between zooplankton community dynamics in the western English Channel and environmental indices. Thus, the zooplankton time-series often associated and represented as the Russell Cycle cannot be concluded as being truly cyclical.

Is the Russell Cycle a true cycle? Multidecadal zooplankton and climate trends in the western English Channel

The Russell Cycle is one of the classical examples of climate influence on biological oceanography, represented as shifts in the marine plankton over several decades with warm and cool conditions. While the time-series data associated with the phenomenon indicate cyclical patterns, the question remains whether or not the Russell Cycle should be considered a “true cycle”. Zooplankton time-series data from 1924 to 2011 from the western English Channel were analysed with principal component (PC), correlation and spectral analyses to determine the dominant trends, and cyclic frequencies of the Russell Cycle indicators in relation to long-term hydroclimatic indices. PC1 accounted for 37.4% of the variability in the zooplankton data with the main contributions from non-clupeid fish larvae, southwestern zooplankton, and overall zooplankton biovolume. For PC2 (14.6% of data variance), the dominant groups were northern fish larvae, non-sardine eggs, and southern fish larvae. Sardine eggs were the major contributors to PC3 (representing 12.1% of data variance). No significant correlations were observed between the above three components and climate indices: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and local seawater temperature. Significant 44- and 29-year frequencies were observed for PC3, but the physical mechanisms driving the cycles are unclear. Harmonic analysis did not reveal any significant frequencies in the physical variables or in PCs 1 and 2. To a large extent, this is due to the dominant cycles in all datasets generally being long term (>50 years or so) and not readily resolved in the examined time frame of 88 years, hence restricting the ability to draw firm conclusions on the multidecadal relationship between zooplankton community dynamics in the western English Channel and environmental indices. Thus, the zooplankton time-series often associated and represented as the Russell Cycle cannot be concluded as being truly cyclical.

Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Larval Atlantic Menhaden on the East Coast of the United States

Atlantic Menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus is a commercially and ecologically important forage fish abundant on the Atlantic Coast of the United States. We conducted spatial and temporal analyses of larval Atlantic Menhaden using data collected from two large-scale ichthyoplankton programs during 1977-1987 and 1999-2013 to construct indices of larval abundance and survival over time, evaluate how environmental factors affect early life survival, and examine how larvae are distributed in space to gain knowledge on spawning and larval dispersal. Over time, we found larval abundance to increase, while early life survival declined. Coastal temperature, wind speed, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation were found to potentially explain some of this decline in survival. Over both periods, we found evidence spawning predominantly occurs near shore, from New York to North Carolina, increasing in intensity southwards. While the general spatial patterns were consistent, we observed some localized variation and overall expansion of occupied area by larvae.

Oceanic control of multidecadal variability in an idealized coupled GCM

Idealized ocean models are known to develop intrinsic multidecadal oscillations of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Here we explore the role of ocean–atmosphere interactions on this low-frequency variability. We use a coupled ocean–atmosphere model set up in a flat-bottom aquaplanet geometry with two meridional boundaries. The model is run at three different horizontal resolutions (4°, 2° and 1°) in both the ocean and atmosphere. At all resolutions, the MOC exhibits spontaneous variability on multidecadal timescales in the range 30–40 years, associated with the propagation of large-scale baroclinic Rossby waves across the Atlantic-like basin. The unstable region of growth of these waves through the long wave limit of baroclinic instability shifts from the eastern boundary at coarse resolution to the western boundary at higher resolution. Increasing the horizontal resolution enhances both intrinsic atmospheric variability and ocean–atmosphere interactions. In particular, the simulated atmospheric annular mode becomes significantly correlated to the MOC variability at 1° resolution. An ocean-only simulation conducted for this specific case underscores the disruptive but not essential influence of air–sea interactions on the low-frequency variability. This study demonstrates that an atmospheric annular mode leading MOC changes by about 2 years (as found at 1° resolution) does not imply that the low-frequency variability originates from air–sea interactions.

Climate-related hydrological regimes and their effects on abundance of juvenile blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) in the northcentral Gulf of Mexico

The abundance of juvenile blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) in the northcentral Gulf of Mexico was investigated in response to climate-related hydrological regimes. Two distinct periods of blue crab abundance (1, 1973–94 and 2, 1997–2005) were associated with two opposite climaterelated hydrological regimes. Period 1 was characterized by high numbers of crabs, whereas period 2 was characterized by low numbers of crabs. The cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and high north-south wind momentum were associated with period 1. Hydrological conditions associated with phases of the AMO and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in conjunction with the north-south wind momentum may favor blue crab productivity by influencing blue crab predation dynamics through the exclusion of predators. About 25% (22–28%) of the variability in blue crab abundance was explained by a north–south wind momentum in concert with either salinity, precipitation, or the Palmer drought severity index, or by a combination of the NAO and precip

Climate variability drives anchovies and sardines into the North and Baltic Seas

European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus) are southern, warm water species that prefer temperatures warmer than those found in boreal waters. After about 40 years of absence, they were again observed in the 1990s in increasing quantities in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Whereas global warming probably played a role in these northward migrations, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the contraction of the subpolar gyre were important influences. Sardine re-invaded the North Sea around 1990, probably mainly as a response to warmer temperatures associated with the strengthening of the NAO in the late 1980s. However, increasing numbers of anchovy eggs, larvae, juveniles and adults have been recorded only since the mid-1990s, when, particularly, summer temperatures started to increase. This is probably a result of the complex dynamics of ocean–atmosphere coupling involving changes in North Atlantic current structures, such as the contraction of the subpolar gyre, and dynamics of AMO. Apparently, climate variability drives anchovies and sardines into the North and Baltic Seas. Here, we elucidate the climatic background of the return of anchovies and sardines to the northern European shelf seas and the changes in the North Sea fish community in the mid-1990s in response to climate variability.

Changing climate and the Irish landscape

The impacts of current and future changes in climate have been investigated for Irish vegetation. Warming has been observed over the last two decades, with impacts that are also strongly influenced by natural oscillations of the surrounding ocean, seen as fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Satellite observations show that vegetation greenness increases in warmer years, a feature mirrored by increases in net ecosystem production observed for a grassland and a plantation forest. An ensemble of general circulation model simulations of future climates indicate temperature rises over the twenty-first century ranging from 1°C to 7°C, depending on future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Net primary production is simulated to increase under all scenarios, due to the positive impacts of rising temperature, a modest rise of precipitation and rising carbon dioxide concentrations. In an optimistic scenario of reducing future emissions, CO2 concentration is simulated to flatten from about 2070, although temperatures continue to increase. Under this scenario Ireland could become a source of carbon, whereas under all other emission scenarios Ireland is a sink for carbon that may increase by up to three-fold over the twenty-first century. A likely and unavoidable impact of changing climate is the arrival of alien plant species, which may disrupt ecosystems and exert negative impacts on native biodiversity. Alien species arrive continually, with about 250 dated arrivals in the twentieth century. A simulation model indicates that this rate of alien arrival may increase by anything between two and ten times, dependent on the future climatic scenario, by 2050. Which alien species may become severely disruptive is, however, not known.

Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

Stable isotope ratios and chemistry on corals from the Caribbean Sea

Instrumental climate data are limited in length and only available with low spatial coverage before the middle of the 20th century. This is too short to reliably determine and interpret decadal and longer scale climate variability and to understand the underlying mechanisms with sufficient accuracy. A proper knowledge of past variability of the climate system is needed to assess the anthropogenic impact on climate and ecosystems, and also important with regard to long-range climate forecasting. Highly-resolved records of past climate variations that extend beyond pre-industrial times can significantly help to understand long-term climate changes and trends. Indirect information on past environmental and climatic conditions can be deduced from climate-sensitive proxies. Large colonies of massive growing tropical reef corals have been proven to sensitively monitor changes in ambient seawater. Rapid skeletal growth, typically ranging between several millimeters to centimeters per year, allows the development of proxy records at sub-seasonal resolution. Stable oxygen isotopic composition and trace elemental ratios incorporated in the aragonitic coral skeleton can reveal a detailed history of past environmental conditions, e.g., sea surface temperature (SST). In general, coral-based reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region have lagged behind the extensive work published using coral records from the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Difficulties in the analysis of previously utilized coral archives from the Atlantic, typically corals of the genera Montastrea and Siderastrea, have so far exacerbated the production of long-term high-resolution proxy records. The objective of this study is the evaluation of massive fast-growing corals of the species Diploria strigosa as a new marine archive for climate reconstructions from the tropical Atlantic region. For this purpose, coral records from two study sites in the eastern Caribbean Sea (Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles; and Archipelago Los Roques, Venezuela) were examined. At Guadeloupe, a century-long monthly resolved multi-proxy coral record was generated. Results present the first d18O (Sr/Ca)-SST calibration equations for the Atlantic braincoral Diploria strigosa, that are robust and consistent with previously published values using other coral species from different regions. Both proxies reflect local variability of SST on a sub-seasonal scale, which is a precondition for studying seasonally phase-locked climate variations, as well as track variability on a larger spatial scale (i.e., in the Caribbean and tropical North Atlantic). Coral Sr/Ca reliably records local annual to interannual temperature variations and is higher correlated to in-situ air temperature than to grid-SST. The warming calculated from coral Sr/Ca is concurrent with the strong surface temperature increase at the study site during the past decades. Proxy data show a close relationship to major climate signals from the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic (the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)) affecting the seasonal cycle of SST in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA). Coral oxygen isotopes are also influenced by seawater d18O (d18Osw) which is linked to the hydrological cycle, and capture large-scale climate variability in the NTA region better than Sr/Ca. Results from a quantitative comparison between extreme events in the two most prominent modes of external forcing, namely the ENSO and NAO, and respective events recorded in seasonal coral d18O imply that SST variability at the study site is highly linked to Pacific and North Atlantic variability, by this means supporting the assumptions of observational- and model-based studies which suggest a strong impact of ENSO and NAO forcings onto the NTA region through a modulation of trade wind strength in winter. Results from different spectral analysis tools suggest that interannual climate variability recorded by the coral proxies is II largely dictated by Pacific ENSO forcing, whereas at decadal and longer timescales the influence of the NAO is dominan. tThe Archipelago Los Roques is situated in the southeastern Caribbean Sea, north of the Venezuelan coast. Year-to-year variations in monthly resolved coral d18O of a nearcentury- long Diploria strigosa record are significantly correlated with SST and show pronounced multidecadal variations. About half of the variance in coral d18O can be explained by variations in seawater d18O, which can be estimated by calculating the d18Oresidual via subtracting the SST component from measured coral d18O. The d18Oresidual and a regional precipitation index are highly correlated at low frequencies, suggesting that d18Osw variations are primarily atmospheric-driven. Warmer SSTs at Los Roques broadly coincide with higher precipitation in the southeastern Caribbean at multidecadal time scales, effectively strengthening the climate signal in the coral d18O record. The Los Roques coral d18O record displays a strong and statistically significant relationship to different indices of hurricane activity during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season in boreal summer and is a particularly good indicator of decadal-multidecadal swings in the latter indices. In general, the detection of long-term changes and trends in Atlantic hurricane activity is hampered due to the limited length of the reliable instrumental record and the known inhomogeneity in the observational databases which result from changes in observing practice and technology over the years. The results suggest that coral-derived proxy data from Los Roques can be used to infer changes in past hurricane activity on timescales that extend well beyond the reliable record. In addition, the coral record exhibits a clear negative trend superimposed on the decadal to multidecadal cycles, indicating a significant warming and freshening of surface waters in the genesis region of tropical cyclones during the past decades. The presented coral d18O time series provides the first and, so far, longest continuous coral-based record of hurricane activity. It appears that the combination of both signals (SST and d18Osw) in coral d18O leads to an amplification of large-scale climate signals in the record, and makes coral d18O even a better proxy for hurricane activity than SST alone. Atlantic hurricane activity naturally exhibits strong multidecadal variations that are associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the major mode of lowfrequency variability in the North Atlantic Ocean. However, the mechanisms underlying this multidecadal variability remain controversial, primarily because of the limited instrumental record. The Los Roques coral d18O displays strong multidecadal variability with a period of approximately 60 years that is closely related to the AMO, making the Archipelago Los Roques a very sensitive location for studying low-frequency climate variability in the Atlantic Ocean. In summary, the coral records presented in this thesis capture different key climate variables in the north tropical Atlantic region very well, indicating that fast-growing Diploria strigosa corals represent a promising marine archive for further proxy-based reconstructions of past climate variability on a range of time scales.