Vigilancia tecnológica: un aprendizaje adaptativo a través del pensamiento divergente Technological surveillance: an adaptive learning through divergent thinking

El estudio de la evolución tecnológica a partir de logros concretos de la humanidad es una forma de aproximación a la enseñanza de la ingeniería. Comprender que las tecnologías existentes son el resultado de un depurado proceso de creación/selección no es trivial. Por ello combinar un conocimiento deductivo profundo con un pensamiento divergente que favorezca la obtención de soluciones viables y creativas es fundamental en el contexto de incertidumbre económica actual. En este ensayo se comparan siete técnicas de enseñanza que pretenden favorecer el PD en una estrategia adaptativa para alumnos con distintos estilos cognitivos (AA) sobre la base de un proceso de vigilancia tecnológica (VT) aplicada a algunos objetos cotidianos y otros muy especializados.

PERSONAL(ONTO) : Personalizing the Learning Process in Virtual Environments by means of Adaptive Formative Itineraries based on Reusable Learning Objects and Ontologies TIN2006-15107-C02

Personalization in e-learning allows the adaptation of contents, learning strategiesand educational resources to the competencies, previous knowledge or preferences of the student. This project takes a multidisciplinary perspective for devising standards-based personalization capabilities into virtual e-learning environments, focusing on the conceptof adaptive learning itinerary, using reusable learning objects as the basis of the system and using ontologies and semantic web technologies.

Adaptive E-learning Content Design and Delivery Based on Learning Styles and Knowledge Level

ACM Computing Classification System (1998): K.3.1, K.3.2.

An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Intelligent decision making in electricity markets: simulated annealing Q-Learning

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, playing in a dynamic scene to obtain the best advantages and profits. MASCEM is a multi-agent electricity market simulator to model market players and simulate their operation in the market. Market players are entities with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting with other players. MASCEM is integrated with ALBidS, a system that provides several dynamic strategies for agents’ behavior. This paper presents a method that aims at enhancing ALBidS competence in endowing market players with adequate strategic bidding capabilities, allowing them to obtain the higher possible gains out of the market. This method uses a reinforcement learning algorithm to learn from experience how to choose the best from a set of possible actions. These actions are defined accordingly to the most probable points of bidding success. With the purpose of accelerating the convergence process, a simulated annealing based algorithm is included.

Multiagent system for adaptive strategy formulation in electricity markets

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. MASCEM is a market simulator developed to allow deep studies of the interactions between the players that take part in the electricity market negotiations. This paper presents a new proposal for the definition of MASCEM players’ strategies to negotiate in the market. The proposed methodology is multiagent based, using reinforcement learning algorithms to provide players with the capabilities to perceive the changes in the environment, while adapting their bids formulation according to their needs, using a set of different techniques that are at their disposal.

User modeling In adaptive hypermedia educational systems

This document is a survey in the research area of User Modeling (UM) for the specific field of Adaptive Learning. The aims of this document are: To define what it is a User Model; To present existing and well known User Models; To analyze the existent standards related with UM; To compare existing systems. In the scientific area of User Modeling (UM), numerous research and developed systems already seem to promise good results, but some experimentation and implementation are still necessary to conclude about the utility of the UM. That is, the experimentation and implementation of these systems are still very scarce to determine the utility of some of the referred applications. At present, the Student Modeling research goes in the direction to make possible reuse a student model in different systems. The standards are more and more relevant for this effect, allowing systems communicate and to share data, components and structures, at syntax and semantic level, even if most of them still only allow syntax integration.

Reinforcement Learning Based on the Bayesian Theorem for Electricity Markets Decision Support

This paper presents the applicability of a reinforcement learning algorithm based on the application of the Bayesian theorem of probability. The proposed reinforcement learning algorithm is an advantageous and indispensable tool for ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to electricity market negotiating players. ALBidS uses a set of different strategies for providing decision support to market players. These strategies are used accordingly to their probability of success for each different context. The approach proposed in this paper uses a Bayesian network for deciding the most probably successful action at each time, depending on past events. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested using electricity market simulations in MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets). MASCEM provides the means for simulating a real electricity market environment, based on real data from real electricity market operators.

Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes

This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as endogenous responses to the fundamentals driving asset prices. When agents are risk-averse they need to make forecasts of the conditional variance of a stock’s return. Recursive updating of both the conditional variance and the expected return implies several mechanisms through which learning impacts stock prices. Extended periods of excess volatility, bubbles and crashes arise with a frequency that depends on the extent to which past data is discounted. A central role is played by changes over time in agents’ estimates of risk.

Fiscal Policy and Learning

Using the standard real business cycle model with lump-sum taxes, we analyze the impact of fiscal policy when agents form expectations using adaptive learning rather than rational expectations (RE). The output multipliers for government purchases are significantly higher under learning, and fall within empirical bounds reported in the literature (in sharp contrast to the implausibly low values under RE). Effectiveness of fiscal policy is demonstrated during times of economic stress like the recent Great Recession. Finally it is shown how learning can lead to dynamics empirically documented during episodes of 'fiscal consolidations.'

Finite Horizon Learning

Incorporating adaptive learning into macroeconomics requires assumptions about how agents incorporate their forecasts into their decision-making. We develop a theory of bounded rationality that we call finite-horizon learning. This approach generalizes the two existing benchmarks in the literature: Eulerequation learning, which assumes that consumption decisions are made to satisfy the one-step-ahead perceived Euler equation; and infinite-horizon learning, in which consumption today is determined optimally from an infinite-horizon optimization problem with given beliefs. In our approach, agents hold a finite forecasting/planning horizon. We find for the Ramsey model that the unique rational expectations equilibrium is E-stable at all horizons. However, transitional dynamics can differ significantly depending upon the horizon.

Anticipation, Learning and Welfare: the Case of Distortionary Taxation

We study the impact of anticipated fiscal policy changes in a Ramsey economy where agents form long-horizon expectations using adaptive learning. We extend the existing framework by introducing distortionary taxes as well as elastic labour supply, which makes agents. decisions non-predetermined but more realistic. We detect that the dynamic responses to anticipated tax changes under learning have oscillatory behaviour that can be interpreted as self-fulfilling waves of optimism and pessimism emerging from systematic forecast errors. Moreover, we demonstrate that these waves can have important implications for the welfare consequences of .scal reforms. (JEL: E32, E62, D84)

Searching for and positioning of contextualized learning objects

Learning object economies are marketplaces for the sharing and reuse of learning objects (LO). There are many motivations for stimulating the development of the LO economy. The main reason is the possibility of providing the right content, at the right time, to the right learner according to adequate quality standards in the context of a lifelong learning process; in fact, this is also the main objective of education. However, some barriers to the development of a LO economy, such as the granularity and editability of LO, must be overcome. Furthermore, some enablers, such as learning design generation and standards usage, must be promoted in order to enhance LO economy. For this article, we introduced the integration of distributed learning object repositories (DLOR) as sources of LO that could be placed in adaptive learning designs to assist teachers’ design work. Two main issues presented as a result: how to access distributed LO, and where to place the LO in the learning design. To address these issues, we introduced two processes: LORSE, a distributed LO searching process, and LOOK, a micro context-based positioning process, respectively. Using these processes, the teachers were able to reuse LO from different sources to semi-automatically generate an adaptive learning design without leaving their virtual environment. A layered evaluation yielded good results for the process of placing learning objects from controlled learning object repositories into a learning design, and permitting educators to define different open issues that must be covered when they use uncontrolled learning object repositories for this purpose. We verified the satisfaction users had with our solution

Multidimensional Adaptations for Open Learning Management Systems

Our work is focused on alleviating the workload for designers of adaptive courses on the complexity task of authoring adaptive learning designs adjusted to specific user characteristics and the user context. We propose an adaptation platform that consists in a set of intelligent agents where each agent carries out an independent adaptation task. The agents apply machine learning techniques to support the user modelling for the adaptation process