Knowledge-based models for adaptive traffic management systems

This paper describes a general approach for real time traffic management support using knowledge based models. Recognizing that human intervention is usually required to apply the current automatic traffic control systems, it is argued that there is a need for an additional intelligent layer to help operators to understand traffic problems and to make the best choice of strategic control actions that modify the assumption framework of the existing systems.

Forest reference conditions for ecosystem management in the Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico /

"September 1998."

Linking Ecology and Economics for Ecosystem Management

This article outlines an approach, based on ecosystem services, for assessing the trade-offs inherent in managing humans embedded in ecological systems. Evaluating these trade-offs requires an understanding of the biophysical magnitudes of the changes in ecosystem services that result from human actions, and of the impact of these changes on human welfare. We summarize the state of the art of ecosystem services-based management and the information needs for applying it. Three case studies of Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites--coastal, urban, and agricultural-- illustrate the usefulness, information needs, quantification possibilities, and methods for this approach. One example of the application of this approach, with rigorously established service changes and valuations taken from the literature, is used to illustrate the potential for full economic valuation of several agricultural landscape management options, including managing for water quality, biodiversity, and crop productivity.

游牧文化、草地利用方式变迁与现代生态系统管理 — 以内蒙古锡林河流域为例

锡林郭勒草原位于内蒙古自治区中部，草地面积居我国11片重点牧区之首，是我国温带典型草原的核心分布区和重要的草地畜牧业生产基地。长期以来，锡林郭勒草原作为我国北方地区的一道重要的绿色生态屏障，有效地阻止了草原腹地的土壤侵蚀、沙化以及来自中亚和我国西部的沙尘侵害，对于维持整个华北地区，特别是京、津大都市的生态环境安全起着极其重要的作用。然而，近几十年来，由于人类活动的强度干扰锡林郭勒草原发生了严重退化，生产力显著降低，草原的生态服务功能日益衰减。本文以锡林郭勒草原传统的游牧文化和草地利用方式的变迁作为切入点，以锡林河流域为案例，深入分析了社会驱动力在草地退化过程中的主导作用，目的在于揭示土地利用方式的变化、农牧业人口的剧增和牲畜数量在时间和空间分布的变化趋势与锡林河流域草地退化的关系，进而探求锡林河流域草地畜牧业的可持续发展途径。同时，近年来由于草地退化速度的加剧和草地退化面积的不断扩张，以及世界许多资源保护计划和可持续发展项目的失败，人类原始的土著文化对当地生态环境的保护和维持作用，引起了自然和社会科学界共同的关注，本文应用草地调查和社会调查的方法以及GIS技术对锡林河流域草地退化时空分布规律及其成因进行了研究。 原始游牧是锡林郭勒草原历史悠久的草地利用方式，而草原游牧文化则是蒙古族传统文化的重要组成部分。随着人类社会不断地走向文明和现代化，传统的游牧逐渐地被半定居和定居定牧的方式所取代，蒙古族传统的草原游牧文化也随之走向衰落。本文采用社会调查方法对锡林河流域已经结束了50多年的游牧利用方式进行考察，探讨了不同土地利用方式时空格局，以及土地利用方式变迁对草地退化格局的影响，进而强调了传统的草原游牧文化对于人类的行为规范、价值观念、环境保护和维持生态系统功能的重要意义。 以1984年和2004年开展的大量草地调查数据为基础，结合同期的TM数据，分析了20年来锡林河流域草地退化程度及其空间分布，结果发现锡林河流域草地退化面积达到70％之多，从东南向西北草地退化程度明显加剧。同上世纪80年代中期相比，锡林河流域植被在近20余年来的变化状况表现为：局部恢复，部分地区变化不明显，总体上呈现出不断恶化的发展势头。通过对位于 锡林河流域的锡林浩特市及其邻近地区的社会驱动因子的分析，并应用统计学和GIS空间分析的方法，对锡林河流域土地利用、牧业人口和牲畜数量等因子在近35年来的变化过程进行了系统研究，发现土地利用变化、人口的急剧增加、以及过度放牧是导致锡林河流域草地退化加剧的主要原因。 在上述分析的基础上，以适应性生态系统管理和可持续性科学的基本理论为指导，对锡林河流域的生态环境保护和草地畜牧业的可持续发展提出了一些具体的建议和措施。

Is economic valuation of ecosystem services useful to decision-makers? Lessons learned from Australian coastal and marine management

Economic valuation of ecosystem services is widely advocated as a useful decision-support tool for ecosystem management. However, the extent to which economic valuation of ecosystem services is actually used or considered useful in decision-making is poorly documented. This literature blindspot is explored with an application to coastal and marine ecosystems management in Australia. Based on a nation-wide survey of eighty-eight decision-makers representing a diversity of management organizations, the perceived usefulness and level of use of ecosystem services economic valuation in support of coastal and marine management are examined. A large majority of decision-makers are found to be familiar with economic valuation and consider it useful - even necessary - in decision-making, although this varies across decision-makers groups. However, most decision-makers never or rarely use it. The perceived level of importance and trust in estimated dollar values differ across ecosystem services, and are especially high for values that relate to commercial activities. A number of factors are also found to influence respondent’s use of economic valuation. Such findings concur with conclusions from other existing works, and are instructive to reflect on the issue of the usefulness of ESV in environmental management decision-making. They also confirm that the survey-based approach developed in this application represents a sound strategy to examine this issue at various scales and management levels.

Multi-species and multi-interest management: An ecosystem approach to market squid (Loligo opalescens) harvest in California

Market squid (Loligo opalescens) plays a vital role in the California ecosystem and serves as a major link in the food chain as both a predator and prey species. For over a century, market squid has also been harvested off the California coast from Monterey to San Pedro. Expanding global markets, coupled with a decline in squid product from other parts of the world, in recent years has fueled rapid expansion of the virtually unregulated California fishery. Lack of regulatory management, in combination with dramatic increases in fishing effort and landings, has raised numerous concerns from the scientific, fishing, and regulatory communities. In an effort to address these concerns, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary (CINMS) hosted a panel discussion at the October 1997 California Cooperative Oceanic and Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) Conference; it focused on ecosystem management implications for the burgeoning market squid fishery. Both panel and audience members addressed issues such as: the direct and indirect effects of commercial harvesting upon squid biomass; the effects of harvest and the role of squid in the broader marine community; the effects of environmental variation on squid population dynamics; the sustainability of the fishery from the point of view of both scientists and the fishers themselves; and the conservation management options for what is currently an open access and unregulated fishery. Herein are the key points of the ecosystem management panel discussion in the form of a preface, an executive summary, and transcript. (PDF contains 33 pages.)

An Adaptive Management Approach to Resolving Policy Conflicts

The Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) is the current inter-domain routing protocol used to exchange reachability information between Autonomous Systems (ASes) in the Internet. BGP supports policy-based routing which allows each AS to independently define a set of local policies on which routes it accepts and advertises from/to other networks, as well as on which route it prefers when more than one route becomes available. However, independently chosen local policies may cause global conflicts, which result in protocol divergence. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm, called Adaptive Policy Management Scheme(APMS), to resolve policy conflicts in a distributed manner. Akin to distributed feedback control systems, each AS independently classifies the state of the network as either conflict-free or potentially conflicting by observing its local history only (namely, route flaps). Based on the degree of measured conflicts, each AS dynamically adjusts its own path preferences---increasing its preference for observably stable paths over flapping paths. APMS also includes a mechanism to distinguish route flaps due to topology changes, so as not to confuse them with those due to policy conflicts. A correctness and convergence analysis of APMS based on the sub-stability property of chosen paths is presented. Implementation in the SSF network simulator is performed, and simulation results for different performance metrics are presented. The metrics capture the dynamic performance (in terms of instantaneous throughput, delay, etc.) of APMS and other competing solutions, thus exposing the often neglected aspects of performance.

Challenges in the participatory assessment of sustainable management practices in dryland ecosystems under regime shifts

Regime shifts, defined as a radical and persistent reconfiguration of an ecosystem following a disturbance, have been acknowledged by scientists as a very important aspect of the dynamic of ecosystems. However, their consideration in land management planning remains marginal and limited to specific processes and systems. Current research focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data for specific environmental variables. These methods do not fulfill the needs of land managers, who are confronted with a multitude of processes and pressure types and require clear and simple strategies to prevent regime shift or to increase the resilience of their environment. The EU-FP7 CASCADE project is looking at regime shifts of dryland ecosystems in southern Europe and specifically focuses on rangeland and forest systems which are prone to various land degradation threats. One of the aims of the project is to evaluate the impact of different management practices on the dynamic of the environment in a participatory manner, including a multi-stakeholder evaluation of the state of the environment and of the management potential. To achieve this objective we have organized several stakeholder meetings and we have compiled a review of management practices using the WOCAT methodology, which enables merging scientific and land users knowledge. We highlight here the main challenges we have encountered in applying the notion of regime shift to real world socio-ecological systems and in translating related concepts such as tipping points, stable states, hysteresis and resilience to land managers, using concrete examples from CASCADE study sites. Secondly, we explore the advantages of including land users’ knowledge in the scientific understanding of regime shifts. Moreover, we discuss useful alternative concepts and lessons learnt that will allow us to build a participatory method for the assessment of resilient management practices in specific socio-ecological systems and to foster adaptive dryland management.

The Adequacy of Wildlife Management on an Endangered Species: A Design Template for Ecosystems Management in Alabama

The Alabama beach mouse (ABM) was listed an an endangered species in 1985. The ABM has been cited as being minimally managed since its listing. The Sierra Club points out the lack of Primary Consituent Elements (PCE) that are required by the Endangered Species Act of 1973. While traditional habitat status is mired in legal and bureaucratic delays, effective management remains less than optimal. Ecosystem management presents with it, new observable and technological tools that may present a panacea in the ABM's paradox. This Capstone looks at the possible implementation of an ecosystems management alternative in aiding the persistence of a small isolated and endangered species.

Trajectories of Vegetation Response to Water Management in Taylor Slough, Everglades National Park, Florida

Ecosystem management practices that modify the major drivers and stressors of an ecosystem often lead to changes in plant community composition. This paper examines how closely the trajectory of vegetation change in seasonally-flooded wetlands tracks management-induced alterations in hydrology and soil characteristics. We used trajectory analysis, a multivariate method designed to test hypotheses about rates and directions of community change, to examine vegetation shifts in response to changes in water management practices within the Taylor Slough basin of Everglades National Park. We summarized vegetation data by non-metric multidimensional scaling ordination, and examined the time trajectory of each site along environmental vectors representing hydrology and soil phosphorus gradients. In the Taylor Slough basin, vegetation change trajectories closely followed the hydrologic changes caused by the operation of water pumps and detention ponds adjacent to the canals. We also observed a shift in vegetation composition along a vector of increasing soil phosphorus, which suggests the need for implementing measures to avoid P-enrichment in southern Everglades marl prairies. This study indicates that shifts in vegetation composition in response to changes in hydrologic conditions and associated parameters may be detected through trajectory analysis, thereby providing feedback for adaptive management of wetland ecosystems.

Adaptive radiotherapy for virally mediated head and neck cancer : predicting which patients may benefit most

Background: Recent clinical studies have demonstrated an emerging subgroup of head and neck cancers that are virally mediated. This disease appears to be a distinct clinical entity with patients presenting younger and with more advanced nodal disease, having lower tobacco and alcohol exposure and highly radiosensitive tumours. This means they are living longer, often with the debilitating functional side effects of treatment. The primary objective of this study was to determine how virally mediated nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal cancers respond to radiation therapy treatment. The aim was to determine risk categories and corresponding adaptive treatment management strategies to proactively manage these patients. Method/Results: 121 patients with virally mediated, node positive nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal cancer who received radiotherapy treatment with curative intent between 2005 and 2010 were studied. Relevant patient demographics including age, gender, diagnosis, TNM stage, pre-treatment nodal size and dose delivered was recorded. Each patient’s treatment plan was reviewed to determine if another computed tomography (re-CT) scan was performed and at what time point (dose/fraction) this occurred. The justification for this re-CT was determined using four categories: tumour and/or nodal regression, weight loss, both or other. Patients who underwent a re-CT were further investigated to determine whether a new plan was calculated. If a re-plan was performed, the dosimetric effect was quantified by comparing dose volume histograms of planning target volumes and critical structures from the actual treatment delivered and the original treatment plan. Preliminary results demonstrated that 25/121 (20.7%) patients required a re-CT and that these re-CTs were performed between fractions 20 to 25 of treatment. The justification for these re-CTs consisted of a combination of tumour and/or nodal regression and weight loss. 16/25 (13.2%) patients had a replan calculated. 9 (7.4%) of these replans were implemented clinically due to the resultant dosimetric effect calculated. The data collected from this assessment was statistically analysed to identify the major determining factors for patients to undergo a re-CT and/or replan. Specific factors identified included nodal size and timing of the required intervention (i.e. how when a plan is to be adapted). This data was used to generate specific risk profiles that will form the basis of a biologically guided adaptive treatment management strategy for virally mediated head and neck cancer. Conclusion: Preliminary data indicates that virally mediated head and neck cancers respond significantly during radiation treatment (tumour and/or nodal regression and weight loss). Implications of this response are the potential underdosing or overdosing of tumour and/or surrounding critical structures. This could lead to sub-optimal patient outcomes and compromised quality of life. Consequently, the development of adaptive treatment strategies that improve organ sparing for this patient group is important to ensure delivery of the prescribed dose to the tumour volume whilst minimizing the dose received to surrounding critical structures. This could reduce side effects and improve overall patient quality of life. The risk profiles and associated adaptive treatment approaches developed in this study will be tested prospectively in the clinical setting in Phase 2 of this investigation.

Identifying the spatial scale of land use that most strongly influences overall river ecosystem health score

Catchment and riparian degradation has resulted in declining ecosystem health of streams worldwide. With restoration a priority in many regions, there is an increasing interest in the scale at which land use influences stream ecosystem health. Our goal was to use a substantial data set collected as part of a monitoring program (the Southeast Queensland, Australia, Ecological Health Monitoring Program data set, collected at 116 sites over six years) to identify the spatial scale of land use, or the combination of spatial scales, that most strongly influences overall ecosystem health. In addition, we aimed to determine whether the most influential scale differed for different aspects of ecosystem health. We used linear-mixed models and a Bayesian model-averaging approach to generate models for the overall aggregated ecosystem health score and for each of the five component indicators (fish, macroinvertebrates, water quality, nutrients, and ecosystem processes) that make up the score. Dense forest close to the survey site, mid-dense forest in the hydrologically active nearstream areas of the catchment, urbanization in the riparian buffer, and tree cover at the reach scale were all significant in explaining ecosystem health, suggesting an overriding influence of forest cover, particularly close to the stream. Season and antecedent rainfall were also important explanatory variables, with some land-use variables showing significant seasonal interactions. There were also differential influences of land use for each of the component indicators. Our approach is useful given that restoring general ecosystem health is the focus of many stream restoration projects; it allowed us to predict the scale and catchment position of restoration that would result in the greatest improvement of ecosystem health in the regions streams and rivers. The models we generated suggested that good ecosystem health can be maintained in catchments where 80% of hydrologically active areas in close proximity to the stream have mid-dense forest cover and moderate health can be obtained with 60% cover.

Management of multi-scale forest resource data over time

During the last decades there has been a global shift in forest management from a focus solely on timber management to ecosystem management that endorses all aspects of forest functions: ecological, economic and social. This has resulted in a shift in paradigm from sustained yield to sustained diversity of values, goods and benefits obtained at the same time, introducing new temporal and spatial scales into forest resource management. The purpose of the present dissertation was to develop methods that would enable spatial and temporal scales to be introduced into the storage, processing, access and utilization of forest resource data. The methods developed are based on a conceptual view of a forest as a hierarchically nested collection of objects that can have a dynamically changing set of attributes. The temporal aspect of the methods consists of lifetime management for the objects and their attributes and of a temporal succession linking the objects together. Development of the forest resource data processing method concentrated on the extensibility and configurability of the data content and model calculations, allowing for a diverse set of processing operations to be executed using the same framework. The contribution of this dissertation to the utilisation of multi-scale forest resource data lies in the development of a reference data generation method to support forest inventory methods in approaching single-tree resolution.

Environment Education for Ecosystem Conservation

Conservation of natural resources through sustainable ecosystem management and development is the key to our secured future. The management of ecosystem involves inventorying and monitoring, and applying integrated technologies, methodologies and interdisciplinary approaches for its conservation. Hence, now it is even more critical than ever before for the humans to be environmentally literate. To realise this vision, both ecological and environmental education must become a fundamental part of the education system at all levels of education. Currently, it is even more critical than ever before for the humankind as a whole to have a clear understanding of environmental concerns and to follow sustainable development practices. The degradation of our environment is linked to continuing problems of pollution, loss of forest, solid waste disposal, and issues related to economic productivity and national as well as ecological security. Environmental management has gained momentum in the recent years with the initiatives focussing on managing environmental hazards and preventing possible disasters. Environmental issues make better sense, when one can understand them in the context of one’s own cognitive sphere. Environmental education focusing on real-world contexts and issues often begins close to home, encouraging learners to understand and forge connections with their immediate surroundings. The awareness, knowledge, and skills needed for these local connections and understandings provide a base for moving out into larger systems, broader issues, and a more sophisticated comprehension of causes, connections, and consequences. Environmental Education Programme at CES in collaboration with Karnataka Environment Research Foundation (KERF) referred as ‘Know your Ecosystem’ focuses on the importance of investigating the ecosystems within the context of human influences, incorporating an examination of ecology, economics, culture, political structure, and social equity as well as natural processes and systems. The ultimate goal of environment education is to develop an environmentally literate public. It needs to address the connection between our conception and practice of education and our relationship as human cultures to life-sustaining ecological systems. For each environmental issue there are many perspectives and much uncertainty. Environmental education cultivates the ability to recognise uncertainty, envision alternative scenarios, and adapt to changing conditions and information. These knowledge, skills, and mindset translate into a citizenry who is better equipped to address its common problems and take advantage of opportunities, whether environmental concerns are involved or not.