Analysis of project impact on ultimate performance measures. Analytical study no. 1. 1973.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Analysis of project impact on ultimate performance measures. Analytical study no. 3. 1973.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Analysis of the Los Angeles County Alcohol Safety Action Project law enforcement countermeasures: final report 1975.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Alcohol Countermeasures, Washington, D.C.

Analysis of ASAP patrol activity. Final report.

Alcohol Safety Action Project--Fairfax, Va.

A probability-based approach for assessing the relationship between crash accidents and pavement properties

Skid resistance is a condition parameter characterising the contribution that a road makes to the friction between a road surface and a vehicle tyre. Studies of traffic crash histories around the world have consistently found that a disproportionate number of crashes occur where the road surface has a low level of surface friction and/or surface texture, particularly when the road surface is wet. Various research results have been published over many years and have tried to quantify the influence of skid resistance on accident occurrence and to characterise a correlation between skid resistance and accident frequency. Most of the research studies used simple statistical correlation methods in analysing skid resistance and crash data.----- ------ Preliminary findings of a systematic and extensive literature search conclude that there is rarely a single causation factor in a crash. Findings from research projects do affirm various levels of correlation between skid resistance and accident occurrence. Studies indicate that the level of skid resistance at critical places such as intersections, curves, roundabouts, ramps and approaches to pedestrian crossings needs to be well maintained.----- ----- Management of risk is an integral aspect of the Queensland Department of Main Roads (QDMR) strategy for managing its infrastructure assets. The risk-based approach has been used in many areas of infrastructure engineering. However, very limited information is reported on using risk-based approach to mitigate crash rates related to road surface. Low skid resistance and surface texture may increase the risk of traffic crashes.----- ----- The objectives of this paper are to explore current issues of skid resistance in relation to crashes, to provide a framework of probability-based approach to be adopted by QDMR in assessing the relationship between crash accidents and pavement properties, and to explain why the probability-based approach is a suitable tool for QDMR in order to reduce accident rates due to skid resistance.

Anticipating user experience with a desired product : the AUX Framework

Positive user experience (UX) has become a key factor in designing interactive products. It acts as a differentiator which can determine a product’s success on the mature market. However, current UX frameworks and methods do not fully support the early stages of product design and development. During these phases, assessment of UX is challenging as no actual user-product interaction can be tested. This qualitative study investigated anticipated user experience (AUX) to address this problem. Using the co-discovery method, participants were asked to imagine a desired product, anticipate experiences with it, and discuss their views with another participant. Fourteen sub-categories emerged from the data, and relationships among them were defined through co-occurrence analysis. These data formed the basis of the AUX framework which consists of two networks which elucidate 1) how users imagine a desired product and 2) how they anticipate positive experiences with that product. Through this AUX framework, important factors in the process of imagining future products and experiences were learnt, including the way in which these factors interrelate. Focusing on and exploring each component of the two networks in the framework will allow designers to obtain a deeper understanding of the required pragmatic and hedonic qualities of product, intended uses of product, user characteristics, potential contexts of experience, and anticipated emotions embedded within the experience. This understanding, in turn, will help designers to better foresee users’ underlying needs and to focus on the most important aspects of their positive experience. Therefore, the use of the AUX framework in the early stages of product development will contribute to the design for pleasurable UX.

Effects of land use and physicochemical water quality on grass shrimp, Palaemonetes pugio, and its parasitic isopod, Probopyrus pandalicola, in South Carolina, USA tidal creeks

Grass shrimp, Palaemonetes pugio, are a common inhabitant of US East and Gulf coast salt marshes and are a food source for recreationally and economically important fish and crustacean species. Due to the relationship of grass shrimp with their ecosystem, any significant changes in grass shrimp population may have the potential to affect the estuarine system. Land use is a crucial concern in coastal areas where increasing development impacts the surrounding estuaries and salt marshes and has made grass shrimp population studies a logical choice to investigate urbanization effects. Any impact on tidal creeks will be an impact on grass shrimp populations and their associated micro-environment whether predator, prey or parasitic symbiont. Anthropogenic stressors introduced into the grass shrimp ecosystem may even change the intensity of infections from parasitic symbionts. An ectoparasite found on P. pugio is the bopyrid isopod Probopyrus pandalicola. Little is known about factors that may affect the occurrence of this isopod in grass shrimp populations. The goal was to analyze the prevalence of P. pandalicola in grass shrimp in relation to land use classifications, water quality parameters, and grass shrimp population metrics. Eight tidal creeks in coastal South Carolina were sampled monthly over a three year period. The occurrence of P. pandalicola ranged from 1.2% to 5.7%. Analysis indicated that greater percent water and marsh coverage resulted in a higher incidence of bopyrid occurrence. Analysis also indicated that higher bopyrid incidence occurred in creeks with higher salinity, temperature, and pH but lower dissolved oxygen. The land use characteristics found to limit bopyrid incidence were limiting to grass shrimp (definitive host) populations and probably copepod (intermediate host) populations as well.

Assessment of the impact speed and angle conditions for the EN1317 barrier tests

Roadside safety barriers designs are tested with passenger cars in Europe using standard EN1317 in which the impact angle for normal, high and very high containment level tests is 20°. In comparison to EN1317, the US standard MASH has higher impact angles for cars and pickups (25°) and different vehicle masses. Studies in Europe (RISER) and the US have shown values for the 90th percentile impact angle of 30°–34°. Thus, the limited evidence available suggests that the 20° angle applied in EN 1317 may be too low.
The first goal of this paper is to use the US NCHRP database (Project NCHRP 17–22) to assess the distribution of impact angle and collision speed in recent ROR accidents. Second, based on the findings of the statistical analysis and on analysis of impact angles and speeds in the literature, an LS-DYNA finite element analysis was carried out to evaluate the normal containment level of concrete barriers in non-standard collisions. The FE model was validated against a crash test of a portable concrete barrier carried out at the UK Transport Research Laboratory (TRL).
The accident data analysis for run-off road accidents indicates that a substantial proportion of accidents have an impact angle in excess of 20°. The baseline LS-DYNA model showed good comparison with experimental acceleration severity index (ASI) data and the parametric analysis indicates a very significant influence of impact angle on ASI. Accordingly, a review of European run-off road accidents and the configuration of EN 1317 should be performed.

The health loss from ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage : evidence from the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS)

Background People suffering different types of stroke have differing demographic characteristics and survival. However, current estimates of disease burden are based on the same underlying assumptions irrespective of stroke type. We hypothesized that average Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) lost from stroke would be different for ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH).

Methods We used 1 and 5-year data collected from patients with first-ever stroke participating in the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS). We calculated case fatality rates, health-adjusted life expectancy, and quality-of-life (QoL) weights specific to each age and gender category. Lifetime 'health loss' for first-ever ischemic stroke and ICH surviving 28-days for the 2004 Australian population cohort was then estimated. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and sensitivity analyses (SA) were used to assess the impact of varying input parameters e.g. case fatality and QoL weights.

Results Paired QoL data at 1 and 5 years were available for 237 NEMESIS participants. Extrapolating NEMESIS rates, 31,539 first-ever strokes were expected for Australia in 2004. Average discounted (3%) QALYs lost per first-ever stroke were estimated to be 5.09 (SD 0.20; SA 5.49) for ischemic stroke (n = 27,660) and 6.17 (SD 0.26; SA 6.45) for ICH (n = 4,291; p < 0.001). QALYs lost also differed according to gender for both subtypes (ischemic stroke: males 4.69 SD 0.38, females 5.51 SD 0.46; ICH: males 5.82 SD 0.67, females 6.50 SD 0.40).

Discussion People with ICH incurred greater loss of health over a lifetime than people with ischemic stroke. This is explained by greater stroke related case fatality at a younger age, but longer life expectancy with disability after the first 12 months for people with ICH. Thus, studies of disease burden in stroke should account for these differences between subtype and gender. Otherwise, in countries where ICH is more common, health loss for stroke may be underestimated. Similar to other studies of this type, the generalisability of the results may be limited. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were used to provide a plausible range of variation for Australia. In countries with demographic and life expectancy characteristics comparable to Australia, our QoL weights may be reasonably applicable.

Operational safety: Development of electronic system for dynamic balance evaluation of farm tractors

The present study aimed at the development and evaluation of a low cost electronic device in order to provide safety for farm tractor users. The major accident occurrence in agricultural surroundings is from farm tractor side bending. Therefore, this sensor was designed to detect and alert about it. The results were satisfying. © 2013 Taylor & Francis Group.

Uso de recursos e padrão de co-ocorrência com insetos predadores em comunidades sub-tropicais de girinos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

El área de gestión de la información y del conocimiento como frente de investigación en la Ciencia de la Información brasileña: análisis de la producción científica en el período 2000-2009

The management of information and knowledge has been one of the areas of expertise of the fastest growing Brazilian information science. The purpose of this work is to observe how this research front structure from the point of view of the subjects that compose and intellectual frameworks which supports. For this we have analyzed the content of scientific production published in four majo r national journals of the discipline: Ciência da Informação, DataGramaZero, Perspectivas em Ciência da Informação and Transinformação over 2000-2009. The methodology is based on co-occurrence analysis of keywords of articles and co-citation analysis of authors. For the representation and interpretation of the results are used to social network analysis (SNA). We conclude that both information management and knowledge management are closely linked areas within topics including approaches but no consensus answer from the point of view of intellectual frameworks referenced.

Species interactions and random dispersal rather than habitat filtering drive community assembly during early plant succession

Theory on plant succession predicts a temporal increase in the complexity of spatial community structure and of competitive interactions: initially random occurrences of early colonising species shift towards spatially and competitively structured plant associations in later successional stages. Here we use long-term data on early plant succession in a German post mining area to disentangle the importance of random colonisation, habitat filtering, and competition on the temporal and spatial development of plant community structure. We used species co-occurrence analysis and a recently developed method for assessing competitive strength and hierarchies (transitive versus intransitive competitive orders) in multispecies communities. We found that species turnover decreased through time within interaction neighbourhoods, but increased through time outside interaction neighbourhoods. Successional change did not lead to modular community structure. After accounting for species richness effects, the strength of competitive interactions and the proportion of transitive competitive hierarchies increased through time. Although effects of habitat filtering were weak, random colonization and subsequent competitive interactions had strong effects on community structure. Because competitive strength and transitivity were poorly correlated with soil characteristics, there was little evidence for context dependent competitive strength associated with intransitive competitive hierarchies.

Efficient algorithms for dynamic probabilistic safety assessment. An application to convex damage domain.

The design of nuclear power plant has to follow a number of regulations aimed at limiting the risks inherent in this type of installation. The goal is to prevent and to limit the consequences of any possible incident that might threaten the public or the environment. To verify that the safety requirements are met a safety assessment process is followed. Safety analysis is as key component of a safety assessment, which incorporates both probabilistic and deterministic approaches. The deterministic approach attempts to ensure that the various situations, and in particular accidents, that are considered to be plausible, have been taken into account, and that the monitoring systems and engineered safety and safeguard systems will be capable of ensuring the safety goals. On the other hand, probabilistic safety analysis tries to demonstrate that the safety requirements are met for potential accidents both within and beyond the design basis, thus identifying vulnerabilities not necessarily accessible through deterministic safety analysis alone. Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology is widely used in the nuclear industry and is especially effective in comprehensive assessment of the measures needed to prevent accidents with small probability but severe consequences. Still, the trend towards a risk informed regulation (RIR) demanded a more extended use of risk assessment techniques with a significant need to further extend PSA’s scope and quality. Here is where the theory of stimulated dynamics (TSD) intervenes, as it is the mathematical foundation of the integrated safety assessment (ISA) methodology developed by the CSN(Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear) branch of Modelling and Simulation (MOSI). Such methodology attempts to extend classical PSA including accident dynamic analysis, an assessment of the damage associated to the transients and a computation of the damage frequency. The application of this ISA methodology requires a computational framework called SCAIS (Simulation Code System for Integrated Safety Assessment). SCAIS provides accident dynamic analysis support through simulation of nuclear accident sequences and operating procedures. Furthermore, it includes probabilistic quantification of fault trees and sequences; and integration and statistic treatment of risk metrics. SCAIS comprehensively implies an intensive use of code coupling techniques to join typical thermal hydraulic analysis, severe accident and probability calculation codes. The integration of accident simulation in the risk assessment process and thus requiring the use of complex nuclear plant models is what makes it so powerful, yet at the cost of an enormous increase in complexity. As the complexity of the process is primarily focused on such accident simulation codes, the question of whether it is possible to reduce the number of required simulation arises, which will be the focus of the present work. This document presents the work done on the investigation of more efficient techniques applied to the process of risk assessment inside the mentioned ISA methodology. Therefore such techniques will have the primary goal of decreasing the number of simulation needed for an adequate estimation of the damage probability. As the methodology and tools are relatively recent, there is not much work done inside this line of investigation, making it a quite difficult but necessary task, and because of time limitations the scope of the work had to be reduced. Therefore, some assumptions were made to work in simplified scenarios best suited for an initial approximation to the problem. The following section tries to explain in detail the process followed to design and test the developed techniques. Then, the next section introduces the general concepts and formulae of the TSD theory which are at the core of the risk assessment process. Afterwards a description of the simulation framework requirements and design is given. Followed by an introduction to the developed techniques, giving full detail of its mathematical background and its procedures. Later, the test case used is described and result from the application of the techniques is shown. Finally the conclusions are presented and future lines of work are exposed.

Drought and grazing combined: Contrasting shifts in plant interactions at species pair and community level

The combined effects of drought stress and grazing pressure on shaping plant–plant interactions are still poorly understood, while this combination is common in arid ecosystems. In this study we assessed the relative effect of grazing pressure and slope aspect (drought stress) on vegetation cover and soil functioning in semi-arid Mediterranean grassland–shrublands in southeastern Spain. Moreover, we linked these two stress factors to plant co-occurrence patterns at species-pair and community levels, by performing C-score analyses. Vegetation cover and soil functioning decreased with higher grazing pressure and more south-facing (drier) slopes. At the community level, plants at south-facing slopes were negatively associated at no grazing but positively associated at low grazing pressure and randomly associated at high grazing pressure. At north-facing slopes, grazing did not result in a shift in the direction of the association. In contrast, analysis of pairwise species co-occurrence patterns showed that the dominant species Stipa tenacissima and Anthyllis cytisoides shifted from excluding each other to co-occurring with increasing grazing pressure at north-facing slopes. Our findings highlight that for improved understanding of plant interactions along stress gradients, interactions between species pairs and interactions at the community level should be assessed, as these may reveal contrasting results.