Relationship between the water levels and the fish catches in lakes Mweru and Mweru wa Ntipa, Zambia

The relationships between water level and catch per effort in two Zambian lakes are compared. In the relatively stable Lake Mweru, a positive correlation exists which can be used, with certain reservations, to predict the state of the fishery two years in advance. The cause of the relationship is probably the effect of water level on the marshy and swampy breeding areas, where at least the most common species in the commercial catch (Tilapia macruchir) has definite limits for the depth of water in which it will breed. For Mweru wa Ntipa, a consistant definite relationship does not exist, probably because the water level and extent of the lake fluctuate widely.

Paediatric malaria case-management with artemether-lumefantrine in Zambia: a repeat cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND:Zambia was the first African country to change national antimalarial treatment policy to artemisinin-based combination therapy - artemether-lumefantrine. An evaluation during the early implementation phase revealed low readiness of health facilities and health workers to deliver artemether-lumefantrine, and worryingly suboptimal treatment practices. Improvements in the case-management of uncomplicated malaria two years after the initial evaluation and three years after the change of policy in Zambia are reported.METHODS:Data collected during the health facility surveys undertaken in 2004 and 2006 at all outpatient departments of government and mission facilities in four Zambian districts were analysed. The surveys were cross-sectional, using a range of quality of care assessment methods. The main outcome measures were changes in health facility and health worker readiness to deliver artemether-lumefantrine, and changes in case-management practices for children below five years of age presenting with uncomplicated malaria as defined by national guidelines.RESULTS:In 2004, 94 health facilities, 103 health workers and 944 consultations for children with uncomplicated malaria were evaluated. In 2006, 104 facilities, 135 health workers and 1125 consultations were evaluated using the same criteria of selection. Health facility and health worker readiness improved from 2004 to 2006: availability of artemether-lumefantrine from 51% (48/94) to 60% (62/104), presence of artemether-lumefantrine dosage wall charts from 20% (19/94) to 75% (78/104), possession of guidelines from 58% (60/103) to 92% (124/135), and provision of in-service training from 25% (26/103) to 41% (55/135). The proportions of children with uncomplicated malaria treated with artemether-lumefantrine also increased from 2004 to 2006: from 1% (6/527) to 27% (149/552) in children weighing 5 to 9 kg, and from 11% (42/394) to 42% (231/547) in children weighing 10 kg or more. In both weight groups and both years, 22% (441/2020) of children with uncomplicated malaria were not prescribed any antimalarial drug.CONCLUSION:Although significant improvements in malaria case-management have occurred over two years in Zambia, the quality of treatment provided at the point of care is not yet optimal. Strengthening weak health systems and improving the delivery of effective interventions should remain high priority in all countries implementing new treatment policies for malaria.

The Impact of AIDS on Government Service Delivery: The Case of the Zambia Wildlife Authority

Background: The loss of working-aged adults to HIV/AIDS has been shown to increase the costs of labor to the private sector in Africa. There is little corresponding evidence for the public sector. This study evaluated the impact of AIDS on the capacity of a government agency, the Zambia Wildlife Authority (ZAWA), to patrol Zambia’s national parks. Methods: Data were collected from ZAWA on workforce characteristics, recent mortality, costs, and the number of days spent on patrol between 2003 and 2005 by a sample of 76 current patrol officers (reference subjects) and 11 patrol officers who died of AIDS or suspected AIDS (index subjects). An estimate was made of the impact of AIDS on service delivery capacity and labor costs and the potential net benefits of providing treatment. Results: Reference subjects spent an average of 197.4 days on patrol per year. After adjusting for age, years of service, and worksite, index subjects spent 62.8 days on patrol in their last year of service (68% decrease, p<0.0001), 96.8 days on patrol in their second to last year of service (51% decrease, p<0.0001), and 123.7 days on patrol in their third to last year of service (37% decrease, p<0.0001). For each employee who died, ZAWA lost an additional 111 person-days for management, funeral attendance, vacancy, and recruitment and training of a replacement, resulting in a total productivity loss per death of 2.0 person-years. Each AIDS-related death also imposed budgetary costs for care, benefits, recruitment, and training equivalent to 3.3 years’ annual compensation. In 2005, AIDS reduced service delivery capacity by 6.2% and increased labor costs by 9.7%. If antiretroviral therapy could be provided for $500/patient/year, net savings to ZAWA would approach $285,000/year. Conclusion: AIDS is constraining ZAWA’s ability to protect Zambia’s wildlife and parks. Impacts on this government agency are substantially larger than have been observed in the private sector. Provision of ART would result in net budgetary savings to ZAWA and greatly increase its service delivery capacity.

Divergent Paths of Development: The Modern World-System and Democratization in South Africa and Zambia

This article examines whether a Modern World- Systems (MWS) perspective can provide an improved understanding of the processes of democratization in Africa (and other developing regions of the world) by conducting a comparative case study of South Africa and Zambia in the 1990s, examining the transitions to democracy and divergent processes of democratic consolidation in each country. Semiperipheral South Africa has, due to its more advantageous position in the world-system, been better equipped than peripheral Zambia to safeguard democracy against erosion and reversal. Th e central irony of the MWS is that the weakest states in the MWS can be pushed around by core powers and are more easily forced to democratize while at the same time they are least likely to possess the resources necessary for democratic consolidation. Semiperipheral states can maintain their independence vis-à-vis the core to a higher degree, but if the decision is made to undertake a democratic transition they are more likely to possess the resources necessary for successful consolidation. Th e MWS perspective allows for an improved understanding of the causal pathway of how position in the MWS translates into the ability to consolidate democracy than does approaches that emphasize domestic factors.

Health Awareness Drama by the Mavumbo Youth Group, Mongu Western Zambia, the Trickle Out Project

Video from fieldwork research in Zambia

Exploiting Human Resource Requirements to Infer Human Movement Patterns for Use in Modelling Disease Transmission Systems: An Example from Eastern Province, Zambia

In this research, an agent-based model (ABM) was developed to generate human movement routes between homes and water resources in a rural setting, given commonly available geospatial datasets on population distribution, land cover and landscape resources. ABMs are an object-oriented computational approach to modelling a system, focusing on the interactions of autonomous agents, and aiming to assess the impact of these agents and their interactions on the system as a whole. An A* pathfinding algorithm was implemented to produce walking routes, given data on the terrain in the area. A* is an extension of Dijkstra's algorithm with an enhanced time performance through the use of heuristics. In this example, it was possible to impute daily activity movement patterns to the water resource for all villages in a 75 km long study transect across the Luangwa Valley, Zambia, and the simulated human movements were statistically similar to empirical observations on travel times to the water resource (Chi-squared, 95% confidence interval). This indicates that it is possible to produce realistic data regarding human movements without costly measurement as is commonly achieved, for example, through GPS, or retrospective or real-time diaries. The approach is transferable between different geographical locations, and the product can be useful in providing an insight into human movement patterns, and therefore has use in many human exposure-related applications, specifically epidemiological research in rural areas, where spatial heterogeneity in the disease landscape, and space-time proximity of individuals, can play a crucial role in disease spread.

Caring responsibilities, change and transitions in young people's family lives in Zambia

Despite diversity in family dynamics within and between societies, globally, it is adults who are usually relied upon to care for family members who are sick, disabled or have other care needs. Young people in Zambia and other African countries affected by the HIV epidemic are under increasing pressure to obtain a good education and employment to support their families, whilst some also have to cope with the loss of parents and care for relatives with little external support. This article discusses the findings of qualitative research that explored the experiences of young people (aged 14-30) who had significant family caring responsibilities and those without such responsibilities in Zambia. Interviews and life-mapping methods were conducted with a total of 35 young people living in rural and urban areas, 12 parents and relatives and 12 professionals. We analyse young people's experiences and perceptions of socially expected transitions, such as completing education and earning an income to support themselves and their families, in addition to more unpredictable changes in young people's family lives. ‘Critical moments’ (Thomson et al, 2002), such as bereavement and loss of parents and other family members, disinheritance of assets and property grabbing, migration and mobility between different relatives homes, parental divorce and separation, often had significant impacts on young people’s ability to navigate their pathways to adulthood according to wider social norms and expectations. A more relational conceptualisation of youth transitions is needed that takes account of young people's caring responsibilities and changing family dynamics.

The use of remotely sensed rainfall for managing drought risk: a case study of weather index insurance in Zambia

Remotely sensed rainfall is increasingly being used to manage climate-related risk in gauge sparse regions. Applications based on such data must make maximal use of the skill of the methodology in order to avoid doing harm by providing misleading information. This is especially challenging in regions, such as Africa, which lack gauge data for validation. In this study, we show how calibrated ensembles of equally likely rainfall can be used to infer uncertainty in remotely sensed rainfall estimates, and subsequently in assessment of drought. We illustrate the methodology through a case study of weather index insurance (WII) in Zambia. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, WII pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. As remotely sensed rainfall is used to extend WII schemes to large numbers of farmers, it is crucial to ensure that the indices being insured are skillful representations of local environmental conditions. In our study we drive a land surface model with rainfall ensembles, in order to demonstrate how aggregation of rainfall estimates in space and time results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a truer representation of agricultural drought. Although our study focuses on agricultural insurance, the methodological principles for application design are widely applicable in Africa and elsewhere.

MÖJLIGHETER OCH HINDER INOM PREVENTIVT HIV/AIDS-ARBETE : En intervjuundersökning, i Zambia, om rådgivares upplevelser

HIV/Aids är ett av de största globala problemen och utmaningar av idag. Södra Afrika är särskilt drabbat och detta påverkar många olika delar av mänskligt liv. Syftet med denna uppsats har varit att söka ökad förståelse för hur maktstrukturer, utifrån fem rådgivares upplevelser, påverkar det preventiva HIV/Aids arbetet. Vilka faktorer som utgör möjligheter och hinder samt ifall maktstrukturer bidrar till att inte förändring av beteende sker trots kunskap om dess risker, har getts stort fokus. Det geografiska området för studien var södra Zambia. Det finns inget givet svar på vår forskningsfråga, utan resultatet visar snarare på motsatser och komplexitet. Vår utgångspunkt har varit att det inte finns något självklart rätt eller fel och inte heller en enda sanning. Dock är vår slutsats att de möjligheter som finns kan basera sig i att ta hänsyn till lokala förhållanden och maktstrukturer.

Determinanti Sociali e Governance della Salute in Zambia: Politiche di Sviluppo ed Empowerment Partecipativo

A 30 anni dalla Dichiarazione di Alma Ata, l'Organizzazione Mondiale della Sanità, sia nei lavori della Commissione sui Determinanti Sociali della Salute che nel corso della sua 62^ Assemblea (2009) ha posto nuovamente la sua attenzione al tema dei determinanti sociali della salute e allo sviluppo di una sanità secondo un approccio "Primary Health Care", in cui la partecipazione ai processi decisionali è uno dei fattori che possono incidere sull'equità in salute tra e nelle nazioni. Dopo una presentazione dei principali elementi e concetti teorici di riferimento della tesi: Determinanti Sociali della Salute, partecipazione ed empowerment partecipativo (Cap. 1 e 2), il lavoro di tesi, a seguito dell'attività di ricerca di campo svolta in Zambia (Lusaka, Kitwe e Ndola) e presso EuropeAid (Bruxelles), si concentra sui processi di sviluppo e riforma del settore sanitario (Cap. 3), sulle politiche di cooperazione internazionale (Cap.4) e sull'azione (spesso sperimentale) della società civile in Zambia, considerando (Cap. 5): le principali criticità e limiti della/alla partecipazione, la presenza di strumenti e strategie specifiche di empowerment partecipativo, le politiche di decentramento e accountability, le buone prassi e proposte emergenti dalla società civile, le linee e i ruoli assunti dai donatori internazionali e dal Governo dello Zambia. Con questa tesi di dottorato si è voluto evidenziare e interpretare sia il dibattito recente rispetto alla partecipazione nel settore sanitario che i diversi e contraddittori gradi di attenzione alla partecipazione delle politiche di sviluppo del settore sanitario e l'emergere delle istanze e pratiche della società civile. Tutto questo incide su spazi e forme di partecipazione alla governance e ai processi decisionali nel settore sanitario, che influenzano a loro volta le politiche e condizioni di equità in salute. La metodologia adottata è stata di tipo qualitativo articolata in osservazione, interviste, analisi bibliografica e documentale.

Estimating loss to follow-up in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: the effect of the competing risk of death in Zambia and Switzerland

Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.