A pragmatic Bayesian approach to wind field retrieval

The ERS-1 Satellite was launched in July 1991 by the European Space Agency into a polar orbit at about 800 km, carrying a C-band scatterometer. A scatterometer measures the amount of backscatter microwave radiation reflected by small ripples on the ocean surface induced by sea-surface winds, and so provides instantaneous snap-shots of wind flow over large areas of the ocean surface, known as wind fields. Inherent in the physics of the observation process is an ambiguity in wind direction; the scatterometer cannot distinguish if the wind is blowing toward or away from the sensor device. This ambiguity implies that there is a one-to-many mapping between scatterometer data and wind direction. Current operational methods for wind field retrieval are based on the retrieval of wind vectors from satellite scatterometer data, followed by a disambiguation and filtering process that is reliant on numerical weather prediction models. The wind vectors are retrieved by the local inversion of a forward model, mapping scatterometer observations to wind vectors, and minimising a cost function in scatterometer measurement space. This thesis applies a pragmatic Bayesian solution to the problem. The likelihood is a combination of conditional probability distributions for the local wind vectors given the scatterometer data. The prior distribution is a vector Gaussian process that provides the geophysical consistency for the wind field. The wind vectors are retrieved directly from the scatterometer data by using mixture density networks, a principled method to model multi-modal conditional probability density functions. The complexity of the mapping and the structure of the conditional probability density function are investigated. A hybrid mixture density network, that incorporates the knowledge that the conditional probability distribution of the observation process is predominantly bi-modal, is developed. The optimal model, which generalises across a swathe of scatterometer readings, is better on key performance measures than the current operational model. Wind field retrieval is approached from three perspectives. The first is a non-autonomous method that confirms the validity of the model by retrieving the correct wind field 99% of the time from a test set of 575 wind fields. The second technique takes the maximum a posteriori probability wind field retrieved from the posterior distribution as the prediction. For the third technique, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques were employed to estimate the mass associated with significant modes of the posterior distribution, and make predictions based on the mode with the greatest mass associated with it. General methods for sampling from multi-modal distributions were benchmarked against a specific MCMC transition kernel designed for this problem. It was shown that the general methods were unsuitable for this application due to computational expense. On a test set of 100 wind fields the MAP estimate correctly retrieved 72 wind fields, whilst the sampling method correctly retrieved 73 wind fields.

Quantifying the impacts of urban wind sheltering on the building energy consumption

Common building energy modeling approaches do not account for the influence of surrounding neighborhood on the energy consumption patterns. This thesis develops a framework to quantify the neighborhood impact on a building energy consumption based on the local wind flow. The airflow in the neighborhood is predicted using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) in eight principal wind directions. The developed framework in this study benefits from wind multipliers to adjust the wind velocity encountering the target building. The input weather data transfers the adjusted wind velocities to the building energy model. In a case study, the CFD method is validated by comparing with on-site temperature measurements, and the building energy model is calibrated using utilities data. A comparison between using the adjusted and original weather data shows that the building energy consumption and air system heat gain decreased by 5% and 37%, respectively, while the cooling gain increased by 4% annually.

Roof region dependent wind potential assessment with different RANS turbulence models.

The analysis of the wind flow around buildings has a great interest from the point of view of the wind energy assessment, pollutant dispersion control, natural ventilation and pedestrians wind comfort and safety. Since LES turbulence models are computationally time consuming when applied to real geometries, RANS models are still widely used. However, RANS models are very sensitive to the chosen turbulence parametrisation and the results can vary according to the application. In this investigation, the simulation of the wind flow around an isolated building is performed using various types of RANS turbulence models in the open source code OpenFOAM, and the results are compared with benchmark experimental data. In order to confirm the numerical accuracy of the simulations, a grid dependency analysis is performed and the convergence index and rate are calculated. Hit rates are calculated for all the cases and the models that successfully pass a validation criterion are analysed at different regions of the building roof, and the most accurate RANS models for the modelling of the flow at each region are identified. The characteristics of the wind flow at each region are also analysed from the point of view of the wind energy generation, and the most adequate wind turbine model for the wind energy exploitation at each region of the building roof is chosen.

On roof geometry for urban wind energy exploitation in high-rise buildings

The European program HORIZON2020 aims to have 20% of electricity produced by renewable sources. The building sector represents 40% of the European Union energy consumption. Reducing energy consumption in buildings is therefore a priority for energy efficiency. The present investigation explores the most adequate roof shapes compatible with the placement of different types of small wind energy generators on high-rise buildings for urban wind energy exploitation. The wind flow around traditional state-of-the-art roof shapes is considered. In addition, the influence of the roof edge on the wind flow on high-rise buildings is analyzed. These geometries are investigated, both qualitatively and quantitatively, and the turbulence intensity threshold for horizontal axis wind turbines is considered. The most adequate shapes for wind energy exploitation are identified, studying vertical profiles of velocity, turbulent kinetic energy and turbulence intensity. Curved shapes are the most interesting building roof shapes from the wind energy exploitation point of view, leading to the highest speed-up and the lowest turbulence intensity.

Continental passive microwave-based rainfall estimation algorithm: Application to the Amazon Basin

This paper presents a new statistical algorithm to estimate rainfall over the Amazon Basin region using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI). The algorithm relies on empirical relationships derived for different raining-type systems between coincident measurements of surface rainfall rate and 85-GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature as observed by the precipitation radar (PR) and TMI on board the TRMM satellite. The scheme includes rain/no-rain area delineation (screening) and system-type classification routines for rain retrieval. The algorithm is validated against independent measurements of the TRMM-PR and S-band dual-polarization Doppler radar (S-Pol) surface rainfall data for two different periods. Moreover, the performance of this rainfall estimation technique is evaluated against well-known methods, namely, the TRMM-2A12 [ the Goddard profiling algorithm (GPROF)], the Goddard scattering algorithm (GSCAT), and the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) algorithms. The proposed algorithm shows a normalized bias of approximately 23% for both PR and S-Pol ground truth datasets and a mean error of 0.244 mm h(-1) ( PR) and -0.157 mm h(-1)(S-Pol). For rain volume estimates using PR as reference, a correlation coefficient of 0.939 and a normalized bias of 0.039 were found. With respect to rainfall distributions and rain area comparisons, the results showed that the formulation proposed is efficient and compatible with the physics and dynamics of the observed systems over the area of interest. The performance of the other algorithms showed that GSCAT presented low normalized bias for rain areas and rain volume [0.346 ( PR) and 0.361 (S-Pol)], and GPROF showed rainfall distribution similar to that of the PR and S-Pol but with a bimodal distribution. Last, the five algorithms were evaluated during the TRMM-Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) 1999 field campaign to verify the precipitation characteristics observed during the easterly and westerly Amazon wind flow regimes. The proposed algorithm presented a cumulative rainfall distribution similar to the observations during the easterly regime, but it underestimated for the westerly period for rainfall rates above 5 mm h(-1). NESDIS(1) overestimated for both wind regimes but presented the best westerly representation. NESDIS(2), GSCAT, and GPROF underestimated in both regimes, but GPROF was closer to the observations during the easterly flow.

Excess open solar magnetic flux from satellite data: 1. Analysis of the third perihelion Ulysses pass

We use the third perihelion pass by the Ulysses spacecraft to illustrate and investigate the ���flux excess��� effect, whereby open solar flux estimates from spacecraft increase with increasing heliocentric distance. We analyze the potential effects of small-scale structure in the heliospheric field (giving fluctuations in the radial component on timescales smaller than 1 h) and kinematic time-of-flight effects of longitudinal structure in the solar wind flow. We show that the flux excess is explained by neither very small-scale structure (timescales < 1 h) nor by the kinematic ���bunching effect��� on spacecraft sampling. The observed flux excesses is, however, well explained by the kinematic effect of larger-scale (>1 day) solar wind speed variations on the frozen-in heliospheric field. We show that averaging over an interval T (that is long enough to eliminate structure originating in the heliosphere yet small enough to avoid cancelling opposite polarity radial field that originates from genuine sector structure in the coronal source field) is only an approximately valid way of allowing for these effects and does not adequately explain or account for differences between the streamer belt and the polar coronal holes.

Excess open solar magnetic flux from satellite data: 2. A survey of kinematic effects

We investigate the ���flux excess��� effect, whereby open solar flux estimates from spacecraft increase with increasing heliocentric distance. We analyze the kinematic effect on these open solar flux estimates of large-scale longitudinal structure in the solar wind flow, with particular emphasis on correcting estimates made using data from near-Earth satellites. We show that scatter, but no net bias, is introduced by the kinematic ���bunching effect��� on sampling and that this is true for both compression and rarefaction regions. The observed flux excesses, as a function of heliocentric distance, are shown to be consistent with open solar flux estimates from solar magnetograms made using the potential field source surface method and are well explained by the kinematic effect of solar wind speed variations on the frozen-in heliospheric field. Applying this kinematic correction to the Omni-2 interplanetary data set shows that the open solar flux at solar minimum fell from an annual mean of 3.82 �� 1016 Wb in 1987 to close to half that value (1.98 �� 1016 Wb) in 2007, making the fall in the minimum value over the last two solar cycles considerably faster than the rise inferred from geomagnetic activity observations over four solar cycles in the first half of the 20th century.

The rise and fall of open solar flux during the current grand solar maximum

We use geomagnetic activity data to study the rise and fall over the past century of the solar wind flow speed VSW, the interplanetary magnetic field strength B, and the open solar flux FS. Our estimates include allowance for the kinematic effect of longitudinal structure in the solar wind flow speed. As well as solar cycle variations, all three parameters show a long-term rise during the first half of the 20th century followed by peaks around 1955 and 1986 and then a recent decline. Cosmogenic isotope data reveal that this constitutes a grand maximum of solar activity which began in 1920, using the definition that such grand maxima are when 25-year averages of the heliospheric modulation potential exceeds 600 MV. Extrapolating the linear declines seen in all three parameters since 1985, yields predictions that the grand maximum will end in the years 2013, 2014, or 2027 using VSW, FS, or B, respectively. These estimates are consistent with predictions based on the probability distribution of the durations of past grand solar maxima seen in cosmogenic isotope data. The data contradict any suggestions of a floor to the open solar flux: we show that the solar minimum open solar flux, kinematically corrected to allow for the excess flux effect, has halved over the past two solar cycles.

Evolution of coronal mass ejection morphology with increasing heliocentric distance. II. In Situ observations

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are often observed to travel much faster than the ambient solar wind. If the relative speed between the two exceeds the fast magnetosonic velocity, then a shock wave will form. The Mach number and the shock standoff distance ahead of the ICME leading edge is measured to infer the vertical size of an ICME in a direction that is perpendicular to the solar wind flow. We analyze the shock standoff distance for 45 events varying between 0.5 AU and 5.5 AU in order to infer their physical dimensions. We find that the average ratio of the inferred vertical size to measured radial width, referred to as the aspect ratio, of an ICME is 2.8 �� 0.5. We also compare these results to the geometrical predictions from Paper I that forecast an aspect ratio between 3 and 6. The geometrical solution varies with heliocentric distance and appears to provide a theoretical maximum for the aspect ratio of ICMEs. The minimum aspect ratio appears to remain constant at 1 (i.e., a circular cross section) for all distances. These results suggest that possible distortions to the leading edge of ICMEs are frequent. But, these results may also indicate that the constants calculated in the empirical relationship correlating the different shock front need to be modified; or perhaps both distortions and a change in the empirical formulae are required.

Ventilation in a street canyon under diurnal heating conditions

To study the thermal effects on airflow in a street canyon under real heating conditions (due to diurnal solar radiation), a one-way static approach combining an urban canopy model and CFD is proposed in this paper. An urban canopy model was developed to calculate the individual temperatures of surfaces in the street canyon. The calculated surface temperature may be used as a thermal boundary for CFD simulation. The reliability of this model was validated against a field experiment in Harbin, China. Using the coupling calculation method, the wind flow and air exchange process inside an idealized street canyon was studied. The simulation results show that the thermal effect has significant impacts on the transfer process in the street canyon, especially when the approaching wind is weak. Under a real diurnal thermal forcing, the flow structure within the street canyon changes from one primary vortex to two counter-rotating vortices. The change of transfer process, induced by the buoyancy force, was determined by the thermal condition of all surfaces rather than a single one. Key words: thermal effect, street canyon, numerical simulation, transfer process, diurnal heating.

Effects of urban ventilation patterns on the carbon monoxide concentration in a high-rise mega city

Carbon monoxide (CO) concentration data from 1999���2006, monitored at 5 different pollution stations in a high-rise mega city (Hong Kong), were collected and investigated. The spatio-temporal characteristics of urban CO concentration profiles were obtained. A new approach was put forward to examine the relationship between urban CO concentration and different wind flow patterns. Rather than relying on the meteorological data from a single weather station, usually adopted in previous studies, four weather stations on the boundary of Hong Kong territory were used in the present study so as to identify 16 different wind flow patterns, among which a typical urban heat island circulation (UHIC) can be distinguished. Higher concentrations were observed to be associated with the flow pattern of an inflow from Lau Fau Shan (LFS) station which is located in the northwest of Hong Kong. This suggests that the ability of dilution for north-to-west wind is relatively weak due to the pollutants carried from outside Hong Kong. The effectiveness of wind speed on the alleviation of urban concentration is dependent on the initial concentration of the approaching wind. The increase of wind speed of north-to-west wind from 0 m/s to 6 m/s has little effect on the reduction of urban CO concentration, especially on the non-roadside stations. By contrast, for the southerly marine wind, pollution concentration decreases sharply with an increase in the wind speed. It was also found that urban heat island circulation (UHIC) is conducive of the accumulation of pollutants, especially at night. There exists a positive correlation between CO concentration and UHI intensity. This correlation is much stronger at night compared to during the day. Keywords: urban pollution monitoring, urban ventilation pattern, urban heat island circulation, mega city

On the variability of the surface environment response to synoptic forcing over complex terrain: a multivariate data analysis approach

Synoptic climatology relates the atmospheric circulation with the surface environment. The aim of this study is to examine the variability of the surface meteorological patterns, which are developing under different synoptic scale categories over a suburban area with complex topography. Multivariate Data Analysis techniques were performed to a data set with surface meteorological elements. Three principal components related to the thermodynamic status of the surface environment and the two components of the wind speed were found. The variability of the surface flows was related with atmospheric circulation categories by applying Correspondence Analysis. Similar surface thermodynamic fields develop under cyclonic categories, which are contrasted with the anti-cyclonic category. A strong, steady wind flow characterized by high shear values develops under the cyclonic Closed Low and the anticyclonic H���L categories, in contrast to the variable weak flow under the anticyclonic Open Anticyclone category.

Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr ��� Part 2: A new reconstruction of the interplanetary magnetic field

We present a new reconstruction of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF, B) for 1846���2012 with a full analysis of errors, based on the homogeneously constructed IDV(1d)composite of geomagnetic activity presented in Part 1 (Lockwood et al., 2013a). Analysis of the dependence of the commonly used geomagnetic indices on solar wind parameters is presented which helps explain why annual means of interdiurnal range data, such as the new composite, depend only on the IMF with only a very weak influence of the solar wind flow speed. The best results are obtained using a polynomial (rather than a linear) fit of the form B = �� �� (IDV(1d) ��� ��)�� with best-fit coefficients �� = 3.469, �� = 1.393 nT, and �� = 0.420. The results are contrasted with the reconstruction of the IMF since 1835 by Svalgaard and Cliver (2010).

Effect of building gap to improve pedestrian comfort levels and ventilation

Rapid rates of urbanization have resulted into increased concerns of urban environment. Amongst them, wind and thermal comfort levels for pedestrians have attracted research interest. In this regards, urban wind environment is seen as a crucial components that can lead to improved thermal comfort levels for pedestrian population. High rise building in modern urban setting causes high levels of turbulence that renders discomfort to pedestrians. Additionally, a higher frequency of high ris e buildings at a particular region acts as a shield against the wind flow to the lower buildings beyond them resulting into higher levels of discomfort to users or residents. Studies conducted on developing wind flow models using Computational Fluid Dynami cs (CFD) simulations have revealed improvement in interval to height ratios can results into improved wind flow within the simulation grid. However, high value and demand for land in urban areas renders expansion to be an impractical solution. Nonetheless, innovative utilization of architectural concepts can be imagined to improve the pedestrian comfort levels through improved wind permeability. This paper assesses the possibility of through-building gaps being a solution to improve pedestrian comfort levels.

Ionospheric and geomagnetic responses to changes in IMF B_Z: a superposed epoch study

Superposed epoch studies have been carried out in order to determine the ionospheric response at mid-latitudes to southward turnings of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). This is compared with the geomagnetic response, as seen in the indices K p, AE and Dst. The solar wind, IMF and geomagnetic data used were hourly averages from the years 1967���1989 and thus cover a full 22-year cycle in the solar magnetic field. These data were divided into subsets, determined by the magnitudes of the southward turnings and the concomitant increase in solar wind pressure. The superposed epoch studies were carried out using the time of the southward turning as time zero. The response of the mid-latitude ionosphere is studied by looking at the F-layer critical frequencies, f o F2, from hourly soundings by the Slough ionosonde and their deviation from the monthly median values, ��f o F2. For the southward turnings with a change in B z of ��B z > 11.5 nT accompanied by a solar wind dynamic pressure P exceeding 5 nPa, the F region critical frequency, f o F2, shows a marked decrease, reaching a minimum value about 20 h after the southward turning. This recovers to pre-event values over the subsequent 24 h, on average. The Dst index shows the classic storm-time decrease to about ���60 nT. Four days later, the index has still to fully recover and is at about ���25 nT. Both the K p and AE indices show rises before the southward turnings, when the IMF is strongly northward but the solar wind dynamic pressure is enhanced. The average AE index does register a clear isolated pulse (averaging 650 nT for 2 h, compared with a background peak level of near 450 nT at these times) showing enhanced energy deposition at high latitudes in substorms but, like K p, remains somewhat enhanced for several days, even after the average IMF has returned to zero after 1 day. This AE background decays away over several days as the Dst index recovers, indicating that there is some contamination of the currents observed at the AE stations by the continuing enhanced equatorial ring current. For data averaged over all seasons, the critical frequencies are depressed at Slough by 1.3 MHz, which is close to the lower decile of the overall distribution of ��f o Fl values. Taking 30-day periods around summer and winter solstice, the largest depression is 1.6 and 1.2 MHz, respectively. This seasonal dependence is confirmed by a similar study for a Southern Hemisphere station, Argentine Island, giving peak depressions of 1.8 MHz and 0.5 MHz for summer and winter. For the subset of turnings where ��B z > 11.5 nT and P ��� 5 nPa, the response of the geomagnetic indices is similar but smaller, while the change in ��f o F2 has all but disappeared. This confirms that the energy deposited at high latitudes, which leads to the geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances following a southward turning of the IMF, increases with the energy density (dynamic pressure) of the solar wind flow. The magnitude of all responses are shown to depend on ��B z . At Slough, the peak depression always occurs when Slough rotates into the noon sector. The largest ionospheric response is for southward turnings seen between 15���21 UT.