Variational Bayes and the reduced dependence approximation for the autologistic model on an irregular grid with applications

Discrete Markov random field models provide a natural framework for representing images or spatial datasets. They model the spatial association present while providing a convenient Markovian dependency structure and strong edge-preservation properties. However, parameter estimation for discrete Markov random field models is difficult due to the complex form of the associated normalizing constant for the likelihood function. For large lattices, the reduced dependence approximation to the normalizing constant is based on the concept of performing computationally efficient and feasible forward recursions on smaller sublattices which are then suitably combined to estimate the constant for the whole lattice. We present an efficient computational extension of the forward recursion approach for the autologistic model to lattices that have an irregularly shaped boundary and which may contain regions with no data; these lattices are typical in applications. Consequently, we also extend the reduced dependence approximation to these scenarios enabling us to implement a practical and efficient non-simulation based approach for spatial data analysis within the variational Bayesian framework. The methodology is illustrated through application to simulated data and example images. The supplemental materials include our C++ source code for computing the approximate normalizing constant and simulation studies.

The Galerkin finite element approximation of the fractional cable equation

The cable equation is one of the most fundamental equations for modeling neuronal dynamics. Cable equations with a fractional order temporal derivative have been introduced to model electrotonic properties of spiny neuronal dendrites. In this paper, the fractional cable equation involving two integro-differential operators is considered. The Galerkin finite element approximations of the fractional cable equation are proposed. The main contribution of this work is outlined as follow: • A semi-discrete finite difference approximation in time is proposed. We prove that the scheme is unconditionally stable, and the numerical solution converges to the exact solution with order O(Δt). • A semi-discrete difference scheme for improving the order of convergence for solving the fractional cable equation is proposed, and the numerical solution converges to the exact solution with order O((Δt)2). • Based on the above semi-discrete difference approximations, Galerkin finite element approximations in space for a full discretization are also investigated. • Finally, some numerical results are given to demonstrate the theoretical analysis.

A second-order accurate numerical approximation for the Riesz space fractional advection-dispersion equation

In this paper, we consider a space Riesz fractional advection-dispersion equation. The equation is obtained from the standard advection-diffusion equation by replacing the ¯rst-order and second-order space derivatives by the Riesz fractional derivatives of order β 1 Є (0; 1) and β2 Є(1; 2], respectively. Riesz fractional advection and dispersion terms are approximated by using two fractional centered difference schemes, respectively. A new weighted Riesz fractional ¯nite difference approximation scheme is proposed. When the weighting factor Ѳ = 1/2, a second- order accurate numerical approximation scheme for the Riesz fractional advection-dispersion equation is obtained. Stability, consistency and convergence of the numerical approximation scheme are discussed. A numerical example is given to show that the numerical results are in good agreement with our theoretical analysis.

A novel numerical approximation for the space fractional advection-dispersion equation

In this paper, we consider a space fractional advection–dispersion equation. The equation is obtained from the standard advection–diffusion equation by replacing the first- and second-order space derivatives by the Riesz fractional derivatives of order β1 ∈ (0, 1) and β2 ∈ (1, 2], respectively. The fractional advection and dispersion terms are approximated by using two fractional centred difference schemes. A new weighted Riesz fractional finite-difference approximation scheme is proposed. When the weighting factor θ equals 12, a second-order accuracy scheme is obtained. The stability, consistency and convergence of the numerical approximation scheme are discussed. A numerical example is given to show that the numerical results are in good agreement with our theoretical analysis.

Numerical approximation for a variable-order nonlinear reaction–subdiffusion equation

Fractional reaction–subdiffusion equations are widely used in recent years to simulate physical phenomena. In this paper, we consider a variable-order nonlinear reaction–subdiffusion equation. A numerical approximation method is proposed to solve the equation. Its convergence and stability are analyzed by Fourier analysis. By means of the technique for improving temporal accuracy, we also propose an improved numerical approximation. Finally, the effectiveness of the theoretical results is demonstrated by numerical examples.

Review : "Spatial planning and climate change" by Elizabeth Wilson and Jake Piper

This timely and thorough book seeks to provide evidence-based assessments of ways in which spatial planning may develop and deliver new strategies for addressing both the causes and impacts of climate change. The authors state that much of the analysis is informed by experiences and learning from their own involvements with climate change projects. The book aims to be relevant to a wide audience and nominates its intended readership to include planning practitioners, scholars, post-graduate students of built environment courses, politicians and the ‘interested’ public. In this regard, the authors skilfully deliver with a comprehensive and accessible dissemination of the nexus between spatial planning and climate change...

A closed-form approximation for pricing temperature-based weather derivatives

This paper develops analytical distributions of temperature indices on which temperature derivatives are written. If the deviations of daily temperatures from their expected values are modelled as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with timevarying variance, then the distributions of the temperature index on which the derivative is written is the sum of truncated, correlated Gaussian deviates. The key result of this paper is to provide an analytical approximation to the distribution of this sum, thus allowing the accurate computation of payoffs without the need for any simulation. A data set comprising average daily temperature spanning over a hundred years for four Australian cities is used to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach for estimating the payoffs to temperature derivatives. It is demonstrated that expected payoffs computed directly from historical records are a particularly poor approach to the problem when there are trends in underlying average daily temperature. It is shown that the proposed analytical approach is superior to historical pricing.