Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Constituting religion after Williams: The false dichotomy of theocracy and secularism

The Williams case is a relevant segue to consider the broader issue of constitutional relations between church and state in Australia. This paper argues that the dichotomous approach of theocracy as opposed to secularism is false and actually undermines the proper operation of s 116. A theocracy would contravene s 116 as an establishment of religion, but secularism also amounts to a conflict with s 116 as prohibiting the free exercise of religion. The necessary alternative is to find a middle ground compatible with s 116, one which will not establish any single state religion but will allow the contribution of different religious perspectives in the process of policy-making. This paper briefly considers how such an approach may be implemented.

On the Nash-Williams′ Lemma in Graph Reconstruction Theory

A generalization of Nash-Williams′ lemma is proved for the Structure of m-uniform null (m − k)-designs. It is then applied to various graph reconstruction problems. A short combinatorial proof of the edge reconstructibility of digraphs having regular underlying undirected graphs (e.g., tournaments) is given. A type of Nash-Williams′ lemma is conjectured for the vertex reconstruction problem.

Averting biodiversity collapse in tropical forest protected areas

The rapid disruption of tropical forests probably imperils global biodiversity more than any other contemporary phenomenon(1-3). With deforestation advancing quickly, protected areas are increasingly becoming final refuges for threatened species and natural ecosystem processes. However, many protected areas in the tropics are themselves vulnerable to human encroachment and other environmental stresses(4-9). As pressures mount, it is vital to know whether existing reserves can sustain their biodiversity. A critical constraint in addressing this question has been that data describing a broad array of biodiversity groups have been unavailable for a sufficiently large and representative sample of reserves. Here we present a uniquely comprehensive data set on changes over the past 20 to 30 years in 31 functional groups of species and 21 potential drivers of environmental change, for 60 protected areas stratified across the world's major tropical regions. Our analysis reveals great variation in reserve `health': about half of all reserves have been effective or performed passably, but the rest are experiencing an erosion of biodiversity that is often alarmingly widespread taxonomically and functionally. Habitat disruption, hunting and forest-product exploitation were the strongest predictors of declining reserve health. Crucially, environmental changes immediately outside reserves seemed nearly as important as those inside in determining their ecological fate, with changes inside reserves strongly mirroring those occurring around them. These findings suggest that tropical protected areas are often intimately linked ecologically to their surrounding habitats, and that a failure to stem broad-scale loss and degradation of such habitats could sharply increase the likelihood of serious biodiversity declines.

An estimate of the number of tropical tree species

The high species richness of tropical forests has long been recognized, yet there remains substantial uncertainty regarding the actual number of tropical tree species. Using a pantropical tree inventory database from closed canopy forests, consisting of 657,630 trees belonging to 11,371 species, we use a fitted value of Fisher's alpha and an approximate pantropical stem total to estimate the minimum number of tropical forest tree species to fall between similar to 40,000 and similar to 53,000, i.e., at the high end of previous estimates. Contrary to common assumption, the Indo-Pacific region was found to be as species-rich as the Neotropics, with both regions having a minimum of similar to 19,000-25,000 tree species. Continental Africa is relatively depauperate with a minimum of similar to 4,500-6,000 tree species. Very few species are shared among the African, American, and the Indo-Pacific regions. We provide a methodological framework for estimating species richness in trees that may help refine species richness estimates of tree-dependent taxa.

Libertad y democracia en el discurso de Monseñor de Andrea : (1932-1946)

Resumen: Los conceptos de “libertad” y “democracia” que se presentan en los discursos de Monseñor Miguel de Andrea durante los años 1932 y 1946 fueron fundamentales para elaborar una estrategia comunicacional orientada a combatir el comunismo y defender los valores republicanos. Se parte de la premisa de que el discurso es una herramienta primordial para difundir ideas y pensamientos, formar opinión y movilizar a la acción. El carácter excepcional de Miguel de Andrea en el mundo eclesiástico e intelectual de su tiempo lo convierten en una figura clave en la defensa de la Constitución y la democracia del período de entreguerras.

A investigação do crime em O dia da coruja e A cada um o seu, de Leonardo Sciascia, e em A forma da água e O ladrão de merendas, de Andrea Camilleri

Esta dissertação tem como objetivo analisar e discutir os romances-ensaios O Dia da Coruja e A Cada um o Seu, de Leonardo Sciascia, em perspectiva comparada com as narrativas policiais A Forma da Água e O Ladrão de Merendas, de Andrea Camilleri, no que diz respeito aos traços estilísticos, históricos e temáticos das obras em foco. Na pesquisa, refletiu-se sobre a utilização da estrutura do romance policial como estratégia de composição empregada pelos dois autores sicilianos, a fim de criticarem a realidade sociopolítica italiana dos últimos 50 anos. Ao final, apontam-se diferenças e identidades existentes entre os citados títulos e se conclui que, L.Sciascia, em tom amargo e incisivo, deu à matéria de seus romances um perfil tanto de narrativa ficcional quanto de ensaio político-filosófico, com o objetivo de denunciar, em seus pseudo-gialli, não apenas crimes, mas, principalmente, a falta de ética no seio da justiça de seu país. Já A.Camilleri eternizou seu perfil de escritor giallista, criando a figura do inspetor Salvo Montalbano e ao lançar mão do recurso do riso sério. Tal artifício não invalidou, ao contrário, sublinhou ironicamente a denúncia a toda forma de criminalidade, de corrupção e de abuso do poder, na fictícia Vigata, espaço imaginário representativo da Sicilia e da Itália

香蕉“威廉斯（Williams）”品种引种栽培结果

香蕉“威廉斯”品种是华南植物研究所的科技人员1985年以试管苗形成从澳洲引入我国，后来用组织培养技术加速繁殖种苗。1987年开始大田种植，逐步在南方六省市示范推广种植，均表现出丰产且优质性能。到1992年止，种植面积达1.0万公顷，新增产值约4亿元，引种栽培获得了成功，1993年8月广东省科委主持的鉴定会上，专家组意见是：这一结果（引种栽培结果）在国内属首次报导，达到国内领先水平。该品种在我国蕉区种植每公顷产量达30000-45000公斤，比当地蕉产量高30-50％，销售价也高10-15％，种植面积不断扩大，每年新种或改种2000公顷，新增产值近1亿元。

Semblanzas Ictiológicas: Andrea Cecilia Hued

A través de esta serie intentaremos conocer diferentes facetas personales de los integrantes de nuestra “comunidad”. El cuestionario, además de su principal objetivo, con sus respuestas quizás nos ayude a encontrar entre nosotros puntos en común que vayan más allá de nuestros temas de trabajo y sea un aporte a futuros estudios históricos. Esperamos que esta iniciativa pueda ser otro nexo entre los ictiólogos de la región, ya que consideramos que el resultado general trascendería nuestras fronteras.

Waldo Williams:? 'Holi'n Hir yn y Tir Tywyll'

Bryant-Quinn, M. (2006). Waldo Williams: 'Holi'n Hir yn y Tir Tywyll'. In D. Walford Davies and J. Walford Davies(Eds.), Cof ac Arwydd: Ysgrifau Newydd ar Waldo Williams (pp.143-162). Abertawe: Cyhoeddiadau Barddas.

Old Spain in new America , by Robert McLean ... and Grace Petrie Williams ... Issued by the Council of women for home mission.

http://www.archive.org/details/oldspaininnewame00mcleiala

Roy Williams: representing multicultural Britain in Fallout

This article considers how Roy Williams's 2003 play, which dramatises a black-on-black killing and the flawed police investigation which follows, represents contemporary British society, particularly in relation to the vexed question of multiculturalism. Some have described "Fallout" as limited and bleak, reinforcing stereotypes of black experience and identity. By contrast, this article demonstrates that the play, through its analysis of both a conflicted police service and the societal divisions that push black youths towards criminality, draws attention to the underlying systemic causes of inner city violence and makes a constructive and valuable contribution to ongoing public debate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]