The error of representation: basic understanding

Representation error arises from the inability of the forecast model to accurately simulate the climatology of the truth. We present a rigorous framework for understanding this kind of error of representation. This framework shows that the lack of an inverse in the relationship between the true climatology (true attractor) and the forecast climatology (forecast attractor) leads to the error of representation. A new gain matrix for the data assimilation problem is derived that illustrates the proper approaches one may take to perform Bayesian data assimilation when the observations are of states on one attractor but the forecast model resides on another. This new data assimilation algorithm is the optimal scheme for the situation where the distributions on the true attractor and the forecast attractors are separately Gaussian and there exists a linear map between them. The results of this theory are illustrated in a simple Gaussian multivariate model.

Chirikov diffusion in the asteroidal three-body resonance (5,-2,-2)

The theory of diffusion in many-dimensional Hamiltonian system is applied to asteroidal dynamics. The general formulation developed by Chirikov is applied to the NesvornA1/2-Morbidelli analytic model of three-body (three-orbit) mean-motion resonances (Jupiter-Saturn-asteroid). In particular, we investigate the diffusion along and across the separatrices of the (5, -2, -2) resonance of the (490) Veritas asteroidal family and their relationship to diffusion in semi-major axis and eccentricity. The estimations of diffusion were obtained using the Melnikov integral, a Hadjidemetriou-type sympletic map and numerical integrations for times up to 10(8) years.

Finite-dimensional global attractors in Banach spaces

We provide bounds on the upper box-counting dimension of negatively invariant subsets of Banach spaces, a problem that is easily reduced to covering the image of the unit ball under a linear map by a collection of balls of smaller radius. As an application of the abstract theory we show that the global attractors of a very broad class of parabolic partial differential equations (semilinear equations in Banach spaces) are finite-dimensional. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A collocation method for solving singular integro-differential equations

This paper describes a collocation method for numerically solving Cauchy-type linear singular integro-differential equations. The numerical method is based on the transformation of the integro-differential equation into an integral equation, and then applying a collocation method to solve the latter. The collocation points are chosen as the Chebyshev nodes. Uniform convergence of the resulting method is then discussed. Numerical examples are presented and solved by the numerical techniques.

Plasma confinement in tokamaks with robust torus

We present a non-linear symplectic map that describes the alterations of the magnetic field lines inside the tokamak plasma due to the presence of a robust torus (RT) at the plasma edge. This RT prevents the magnetic field lines from reaching the tokamak wall and reduces, in its vicinity, the islands and invariant curve destruction due to resonant perturbations. The map describes the equilibrium magnetic field lines perturbed by resonances created by ergodic magnetic limiters (EMLs). We present the results obtained for twist and non-twist mappings derived for monotonic and non-monotonic plasma current density radial profiles, respectively. Our results indicate that the RT implementation would decrease the field line transport at the tokamak plasma edge. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Productivity growth and efficiency change in Malaysian manufacturing: recent evidence from disaggregated data

This paper estimates productivity growth in Malaysian manufacturing over the period 1983-1999. Malmquist productivity Indices (MPIs) have been computed using non parametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) type linear programming, which show productivity growth sourced from efficiency change and growth in technology. Unlike previous studies, this study identifies the sources of productivity growth in Malaysian manufacturing industries at the five digit breakdown of Malaysian Standard Industrial Classification (MSIC) thereby revealing more industry specific efficiency and technical growth patterns. Results indicated that a high majority of the industries operated with low levels of technical efficiency with little or no improvement over time. Growth estimates revealed that two third of the industries (76 out of total 114 categories) experienced average annual productivity improvement ranging from 0.1% to 7.8%. Average annual technical progress was recorded by 95 industry categories while technical efficiency improvement was achieved by 53 industries. Overall yearly average indicated relatively low productivity growth from the mid 1990’s onwards caused by either efficiency decline or technical regress. Summary results for industries showed that some of the high rates of productivity growth have been recorded in glass and glass products (7.3%), Petroleum and coal (7.2%), industrial chemicals (4.9%) contributed from both efficiency improvement and technical progress ranging from 0.8% to 5.4% and from 1.7% to 4.1%, respectively. These results are expected to have some implications for ongoing and future strategic policy reform in Malaysian manufacturing generating a more sustainable growth for specific industry categories.

Productivity growth and efficiency change in Malaysian manufacturing : recent evidence from disaggregated data

This paper estimates productivity growth in Malaysian manufacturing over the period 1983-1999. Malmquist productivity Indices (MPIs) have been computed using non parametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) type linear programming, which show productivity growth sourced from efficiency change and growth in technology. Unlike previous studies, this study identifies the Malaysian manufacturing industries at the five digit breakdown of Malaysian Standard Industrial Classification (MSIC) thereby revealing more industry specific efficiency and technical growth patterns. Results indicate that two third of the industries (76 out of total 114 categories) experienced average annual
productivity improvement ranging from 0.1% to 7.8% over the sampled period. Average annual technical progress was recorded by 95 industry categories while technical efficiency improvement was achieved by 53 industries. Overall yearly average indicated relatively low productivity growth from the mid 1990’s onwards caused by either efficiency decline or technical regress. Summary results for industries reveal that some of the high rates of productivity growth have been recorded in glass and glass products (7.3%), Petroleum and coal (7.2%), industrial chemicals (4.9%) contributed from both efficiency improvement and technical progress ranging from 0.8% to 5.4% and from 1.7% to 4.1%, respectively. These results are expected to have some implications for ongoing and future strategic policy reform in Malaysian manufacturing generating a more sustainable growth for specific industry categories.

Agriculture, trade openness and emissions: an empirical analysis and policy options

This article investigates the impact of sectoral production allocation, energy usage patterns and trade openness on pollutant emissions in a panel consisting of high-, medium- and low-income countries. Extended STIRPAT (Stochastic Impact by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) and EKC (Environmental Kuznets Curve) models are conducted to systematically identify these factors driving CO2 emissions in these countries during the period 1980–2010. To this end, the studyemploys three different heterogeneous, dynamic mean group-type linear panel modelsand one nonlinear panel data estimation procedure that allows for cross-sectionaldependence. While affluence, nonrenewable energy consumption and energy intensity variables are found to drive pollutant emissions in linear models, population is also found to be a significant driver in the nonlinear model. Both service sector and agricultural value-added levels play a significant role in reducing pollution levels, whereas industrialisation increases pollution levels. Although the linear model fails totrack any significant impact of trade openness, the nonlinear model finds trade liberalisation to significantly affect emission reduction levels. All of these results suggest that economic development, and especially industrialisation strategies and environmental policies, need to be coordinated to play a greater role in emission reduction due to trade liberalisation.

Adsorção de selênio em latossolos

A retenção de Se pelos colóides do solo constitui importante processo para a manutenção da sanidade ambiental. A informação sobre a adsorção de Se em solos altamente intemperizados é restrita e existem poucos padrões quantitativos disponíveis para a definição de estratégias de remediação de áreas contaminadas. Quantidades crescentes de Se (5, 10, 25, 50, 100 e 250 mg L-1), na forma de Na2SeO3, foram adicionadas a amostras de dez Latossolos brasileiros [três Latossolos Vermelho-Amarelos (LVA-1, LVA-2 e LVA-3), dois Latossolos Vermelhos (LV-1 e LV-2), um Latossolo Vermelho eutroférrico (LVef), um Latossolo Vermelho acriférrico (LVwf), dois Latossolos Amarelos (LA-1 e LA-2) e um Latossolo Amarelo acriférrico (LAwf)]. Isotermas de adsorção foram construídas e foi verificado o ajuste dos resultados experimentais aos modelos de Langmuir e de Freundlich. A equação de Langmuir ajustou melhor os resultados de adsorção de Se do que a isoterma de Freundlich. Todas as isotermas apresentaram o formato tipo-L (exponencial), com exceção daquelas obtidas para o LVA-1 e para o LVA-2, que apresentaram comportamento tipo-C (linear). Valores de adsorção máxima (Ads máx), estimada pelo modelo de Langmuir, variaram de 135 (LVA-3) a 2.245 mg kg-1 (LA-1), enquanto os coeficientes de afinidade (K L) estiveram entre 0,002 (LVA-2) e 0,326 (LVA-3). A constante de afinidade estimada pelo modelo de Freundlich (Kf) variou de 13,7 (LVA-2) a 180,1 (LAwf). A adsorção máxima de Se foi mais elevada no LVef e nos Latossolos ácricos (LAwf e LVwf), enquanto os maiores valores de Kf foram encontrados no LV-2, LVef, LVA-3 e LVwf. Não houve correlação entre os atributos dos solos e as constantes de Langmuir. Valores de Kf correlacionaram-se com os teores de argila (r = 0,42*) e com a capacidade de troca de ânions (r = 0,64*).

Plasma confinement in tokamaks with robust torus

We present a non-linear symplectic map that describes the alterations of the magnetic field lines inside the tokamak plasma due to the presence of a robust torus (RT) at the plasma edge. This RT prevents the magnetic field lines from reaching the tokamak wall and reduces, in its vicinity, the islands and invariant curve destruction due to resonant perturbations. The map describes the equilibrium magnetic field lines perturbed by resonances created by ergodic magnetic limiters (EMLs). We present the results obtained for twist and non-twist mappings derived for monotonic and non-monotonic plasma current density radial profiles, respectively. Our results indicate that the RT implementation would decrease the field line transport at the tokamak plasma edge. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Elaboração da carta geotécnica de suscetibilidade de um trecho da rodovia marechal rondon - sp-300 (SP, Brasil)

The highways are enterprises of great longitudinal extension that cross several types of lands, that possess different geologic, geomorphologic, pedologic and vegetation conditions. In the environmental management of highways the importance of the use of Engineering Geological Maps of Susceptibility was noticed, for being documents that inter-relates several information of the environment. This way, this research objectified the elaboration of this type of map and the indication of lines of direction for the conservation of the Highway Marechal Rondon - SP-300. For its elaboration the Map of Declivity, the delimited Homogeneous Physiographic Units, the processes of the superficial dynamics mapped and the use of the ground was used. Its elaboration evidenced its importance for the environmental management of highways, in view of the prevention, the monitoring and the correction of the adverse processes that can occur in this type of enterprise.

Adsorsão e coeficientes de distribuição de selênio em solos do Estado de São Paulo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Carta geotécnica de suscetibilidade aos processos da dinâmica superficial do trecho KM 215 ao 249 da Rodovia Marechal Rondon - SP-300

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Pseudodifferentialoperatoren mit nichtregulären banachraumwertigen Symbolen

Untersucht werden in der vorliegenden Arbeit Versionen des Satzes von Michlin f¨r Pseudodiffe- u rentialoperatoren mit nicht-regul¨ren banachraumwertigen Symbolen und deren Anwendungen a auf die Erzeugung analytischer Halbgruppen von solchen Operatoren auf vektorwertigen Sobo- levr¨umen Wp (Rn

Aplicación de la regresión logística en la predicción empírica de fenómenos complejos en obras subterráneas : squeezing y rotura de pilares de carbón

La heterogeneidad del medio geológico introduce en el proyecto de obra subterránea un alto grado de incertidumbre que debe ser debidamente gestionado a fin de reducir los riesgos asociados, que son fundamentalmente de tipo geotécnico. Entre los principales problemas a los que se enfrenta la Mecánica de Rocas moderna en el ámbito de la construcción subterránea, se encuentran la fluencia de roca en túneles (squeezing) y la rotura de pilares de carbón. Es ampliamente conocido que su aparición causa importantes perjuicios en el coste y la seguridad de los proyectos por lo que su estudio, ha estado tradicionalmente vinculado a la predicción de su ocurrencia. Entre las soluciones existentes para la determinación de estos problemas se encuentran las que se basan en métodos analíticos y numéricos. Estas metodologías son capaces de proporcionar un alto nivel de representatividad respecto del comportamiento geotécnico real, sin embargo, su utilización solo es posible cuando se dispone de una suficiente caracterización geotécnica y por tanto de una detallada definición de los parámetros que alimentan los complejos modelos constitutivos y criterios de rotura que los fenómenos estudiados requieren. Como es lógico, este nivel de definición solo es posible cuando se alcanzan etapas avanzadas de proyecto, incluso durante la propia construcción, a fin de calibrar adecuadamente los parámetros introducidos en los modelos, lo que supone una limitación de uso en etapas iniciales, cuando su predicción tiene verdadero sentido. Por su parte, los métodos empíricos permiten proporcionar soluciones a estos complejos problemas de un modo sencillo, con una baja parametrización y, dado su eminente enfoque observacional, de gran fiabilidad cuando se implementan sobre condiciones de contorno similares a las originales. La sencillez y escasez de los parámetros utilizados permiten a estas metodologías ser utilizadas desde las fases preliminares del proyecto, ya que estos constituyen en general, información habitual de fácil y económica adquisición. Este aspecto permite por tanto incorporar la predicción desde el principio del proceso de diseño, anticipando el riesgo en origen. En esta tesis doctoral, se presenta una nueva metodología empírica que sirve para proporcionar predicciones para la ocurrencia de squeezing y el fallo de pilares de carbón basada en una extensa recopilación de información de casos reales de túneles y minas en las que ambos fenómenos fueron evaluados. Esta información, recogida de referencias bibliográficas de prestigio, ha permitido recopilar una de las más extensas bases de datos existentes hasta la fecha relativa a estos fenómenos, lo que supone en sí mismo una importante contribución sobre el estado del arte. Con toda esta información, y con la ayuda de la teoría de clasificadores estadísticos, se ha implementado sobre las bases de datos un clasificador lineal de tipo regresión logística que permite hacer predicciones sobre la ocurrencia de ambos fenómenos en términos de probabilidad, y por tanto ponderar la incertidumbre asociada a la heterogeneidad incorporada por el medio geológico. Este aspecto del desarrollo es el verdadero valor añadido proporcionado por la tesis y la principal ventaja de la solución propuesta respecto de otras metodologías empíricas. Esta capacidad de ponderación probabilística permite al clasificador constituir una solución muy interesante como metodología para la evaluación de riesgo geotécnico y la toma de decisiones. De hecho, y como ejercicio de validación práctica, se ha implementado la solución desarrollada en un modelo coste-beneficio asociado a la optimización del diseño de pilares involucrados en una de mina “virtual” explotada por tajos largos. La capacidad del clasificador para cuantificar la probabilidad de fallo del diseño, junto con una adecuada cuantificación de las consecuencias de ese fallo, ha permitido definir una ley de riesgo que se ha incorporado al balance de costes y beneficios, que es capaz, a partir del redimensionamiento iterativo del sistema de pilares y de la propia configuración de la mina, maximizar el resultado económico del proyecto minero bajo unas condiciones de seguridad aceptables, fijadas de antemano. Geological media variability introduces to the subterranean project a high grade of uncertainty that should be properly managed with the aim to reduce the associated risks, which are mainly geotechnical. Among the major problems facing the modern Rock Mechanics in the field of underground construction are both, the rock squeezing while tunneling and the failure of coal pillars. Given their harmfulness to the cost and safety of the projects, their study has been traditionally linked to the determination of its occurrence. Among the existing solutions for the determination of these problems are those that are based on analytical and numerical methods. Those methodologies allow providing a high level of reliability of the geotechnical behavior, and therefore a detailed definition of the parameters that feed the complex constitutive models and failure criteria that require the studied phenomena. Obviously, this level of definition is only possible when advanced stages of the project are achieved and even during construction in order to properly calibrate the parameters entered in the models, which suppose a limited use in early stages, when the prediction has true sense. Meanwhile, empirical methods provide solutions to these complex problems in a simple way, with low parameterization and, given his observational scope, with highly reliability when implemented on similar conditions to the original context. The simplicity and scarcity of the parameters used allow these methodologies be applied in the early stages of the project, since that information should be commonly easy and cheaply to get. This aspect can therefore incorporate the prediction from the beginning of the design process, anticipating the risk beforehand. This thesis, based on the extensive data collection of case histories of tunnels and underground mines, presents a novel empirical approach used to provide predictions for the occurrence of both, squeezing and coal pillars failures. The information has been collected from prestigious references, providing one of the largest databases to date concerning phenomena, a fact which provides an important contribution to the state of the art. With all this information, and with the aid of the theory of statistical classifiers, it has been implemented on both databases, a type linear logistic regression classifier that allows predictions about the occurrence of these phenomena in terms of probability, and therefore weighting the uncertainty associated with geological variability. This aspect of the development is the real added value provided by the thesis and the main advantage of the proposed solution over other empirical methodologies. This probabilistic weighting capacity, allows being the classifier a very interesting methodology for the evaluation of geotechnical risk and decision making. In fact, in order to provide a practical validation, we have implemented the developed solution within a cost-benefit analysis associated with the optimization of the design of coal pillar systems involved in a "virtual" longwall mine. The ability of the classifier to quantify the probability of failure of the design along with proper quantification of the consequences of that failure, has allowed defining a risk law which is introduced into the cost-benefits model, which is able, from iterative resizing of the pillar system and the configuration of the mine, maximize the economic performance of the mining project under acceptable safety conditions established beforehand.