Modelagem univariada e regressão múltipla na análise da oferta e do preço do boi gordo no mercado brasileiro

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Agronomia e Medicina Veterinária, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Agronegócios, 2016.

Weather and climate of Penisular India modulated by Extrinsic factors- Empirical and Numerical Perspectives

The Doctoral thesis focuses on the factors that influence the weather and climate over Peninsular Indias. The first chapter provides a general introduction about the climatic features over peninsular India, various factors dealt in subsequent chapters, such as solar forcing on climate, SST variability in the northern Indian Ocean and its influence on Indian monsoon, moisture content of the atmosphere and its importance in the climate system, empirical formulation of regression forecast of climate and some aspects of regional climate modeling. Chapter 2 deals with the variability in the vertically integrated moisture (VIM) over Peninsular India on various time scales. The third Chapter discusses the influence of solar activity in the low frequency variability in the rainfall of Peninsular India. The study also investigates the influence of solar activity on the horizontal and vertical components of wind and the difference in the forcing before and after the so-called regime shift in the climate system before and after mid-1970s.In Chapter 4 on Peninsular Indian Rainfall and its association with meteorological and oceanic parameters over adjoining oceanic region, a linear regression model was developed and tested for the seasonal rainfall prediction of Peninsular India.

Safety study : risk factors associated with weather-related general aviation accidents /

The goal of this National Transportation Safety Board study was to better understand the risk factors associated with accidents that occur in weather conditions characterized by IMC or poor visibility ("weather-related accidents"). The study accomplished this goal using the case control methodology, which compared a group of accident flights to a matching group of nonaccident flights to identify patterns of variables that distinguished the two groups from each other. This methodology expands on previous Safety Board efforts that have typically concentrated on summaries of accident cases. For this study, Safety Board air safety investigators (ASI) collected data from 72 GA accidents that occurred between August 2003 and April 2004.

Texas forest fires in relation to weather and other factors /

Includes bibliographical references.

Environmental factors associated with adults' participation in physical activity : A review

Background: Promoting physical activity is a public health priority, and changes in the environmental Contexts of adults' activity choices are believed to be crucial. However, of the factors associated with physical activity, environmental influences are among the least understood. Method: Using journal scans and computerized literature database searches, we identified 19 quantitative studies that assessed the relationships With physical activity behavior of perceived and objectively determined physical environment attributes. Findings were categorized into those examining five categories: accessibility of facilities, opportunities for activity, weather, safety, and aesthetic attributes. Results: Accessibility, opportunities, and aesthetic attributes had significant associations with physical activity, Weather and safety showed less-strong relationships. Where Studies pooled different categories to create composite variables, the associations were less likely to be statistically significant. Conclusions: Physical environment factors have consistent associations with physical activity behavior. Further development of ecologic and environmental models, together with behavior-specific and context-specific measurement strategies, should help in further understanding of these associations. Prospective Studies are required to identify possible causal relationships.

Parity and influence of abiotic factors on Anopheles in the Manso dam, State of Mato Grosso, Brazil

Introduction This study examined the parity of Anopheles mosquitoes and the influence of abiotic factors on the distribution of these mosquitoes in the Manso dam, Mato Grosso, Brazil. Methods The anophelines were captured using the Human Attraction Technique for 12 h, while recording the temperature and relative humidity. Parity was determined by examining the conditions of the filaments. Results Anopheles darlingi and Anopheles triannulatus accounted for 98.5% of the anophelines, with 88% of these being parous. Conclusions Sudden variations in weather could be the cause of shifts from the total absence of mosquitoes to the appearance of females in abundance over a three-day period.

Reproductive allocation strategies: a long-term study on proximate factors and temporal adjustments in a viviparous lizard.

Optimisation of reproductive investment is crucial for Darwinian fitness, and detailed long-term studies are especially suited to unravel reproductive allocation strategies. Allocation strategies depend on the timing of resource acquisition, the timing of resource allocation, and trade-offs between different life-history traits. A distinction can be made between capital breeders that fuel reproduction with stored resources and income breeders that use recently acquired resources. In capital breeders, but not in income breeders, energy allocation may be decoupled from energy acquisition. Here, we tested the influence of extrinsic (weather conditions) and intrinsic (female characteristics) factors during energy storage, vitellogenesis and early gestation on reproductive investment, including litter mass, litter size, offspring mass and the litter size and offspring mass trade-off. We used data from a long-term study of the viviparous lizard, Lacerta (Zootoca) vivipara. In terms of extrinsic factors, rainfall during vitellogenesis was positively correlated with litter size and mass, but temperature did not affect reproductive investment. With respect to intrinsic factors, litter size and mass were positively correlated with current body size and postpartum body condition of the previous year, but negatively with parturition date of the previous year. Offspring mass was negatively correlated with litter size, and the strength of this trade-off decreased with the degree of individual variation in resource acquisition, which confirms theoretical predictions. The combined effects of past intrinsic factors and current weather conditions suggest that common lizards combine both recently acquired and stored resources to fuel reproduction. The effect of past energy store points out a trade-off between current and future reproduction.

Demographic effects of extreme winter weather in the barn owl.

Extreme weather events can lead to immediate catastrophic mortality. Due to their rare occurrence, however, the long-term impacts of such events for ecological processes are unclear. We examined the effect of extreme winters on barn owl (Tyto alba) survival and reproduction in Switzerland over a 68-year period (approximately 20 generations). This long-term data set allowed us to compare events that occurred only once in several decades to more frequent events. Winter harshness explained 17 and 49% of the variance in juvenile and adult survival, respectively, and the two harshest winters were associated with major population crashes caused by simultaneous low juvenile and adult survival. These two winters increased the correlation between juvenile and adult survival from 0.63 to 0.69. Overall, survival decreased non-linearly with increasing winter harshness in adults, and linearly in juveniles. In contrast, brood size was not related to the harshness of the preceding winter. Our results thus reveal complex interactions between climate and demography. The relationship between weather and survival observed during regular years is likely to underestimate the importance of climate variation for population dynamics.

Sudden weather deterioration but not brood size affects baseline corticosterone levels in nestling Alpine swifts.

While evidence is accumulating that stress-induced glucocorticoid responses help organisms to quickly adjust their physiology and behaviour to life-threatening environmental perturbations, the function and the ecological factors inducing variation in baseline glucocorticoid levels remain poorly understood. In this study we investigated the effects of brood size by experimentally manipulating the number of nestlings per brood and the effect of weather condition on baseline corticosterone levels of nestling Alpine swifts (Apus melba). We also examined the potential negative consequences of an elevation of baseline corticosterone on nestling immunity by correlating corticosterone levels with ectoparasite intensity and the antibody production towards a vaccine. Although nestlings reared in enlarged broods were in poorer condition than nestlings reared in reduced broods, they showed similar baseline corticosterone levels. In contrast, nestling baseline corticosterone levels were higher immediately after cold and rainy episodes with strong winds. Neither nestling infestation rate by ectoparastic flies nor nestling antibody production against a vaccine was correlated with baseline corticosterone levels. Thus, our results suggest that altricial Alpine swift nestlings can quickly modulate baseline corticosterone levels in response to unpredictable variations in meteorological perturbation but not to brood size which may be associated with the degree of sibling competition. Apparently, short-term elevations of baseline corticosterone have no negative effects on nestling immunocompetence.

Factors promoting the exposure to bioaerosols among crop workers

Introduction. Agricultural workers are among the professional groups most at risk of developing acute or chronic respiratory problems. Despite this fact, the etiology of these occupational diseases is poorly known, even in important sectors of agriculture such as the crops sector. Cereals can be colonized by a large number of fungal species throughout the plants' growth, but also during grain storage. Some of these fungi deliver toxins that can have a serious impact on human health when they are ingested via wheat products. Although International and European legislation on contaminants in food, including mycotoxins, include measures to ensure protection of public health by setting down the maximum levels for certain contaminants, the risks associated with the inhalation of such molecules during grain handling remains poorly documented. Goal of study. This project's objective was to characterize worker exposure to pathogenic, irritative or allergenic microorganisms and to identify the abiotic or biotic factors that reduce the growth of these microorganisms in crops. Indeed, the proliferation of microorganisms on wheat is dependent on temperature, rainfall and human disturbance (e.g. usage of tillage, addition of fungicides). A change in the concentration of these microorganisms in the substrate will directly result in a change in the concentration of aerosolized particles of the same microorganisms. Therefore, the exposure of worker to bioaérosols will also change. The Vaud region of Switzerland is a perfect region for conduct such a project as weather conditions vary and agricultural land management programs are divers at a small geographic scale. Methods. Bioaerosols and wheat dust have been sampled during wheat harvesting of summer 2010 at 100 sites uniformly distributed in the Vaud region that are representative of the different agriculture practices. Personal exposure has been evaluated for different wheat related activities: harvesting, grain unload, baling straw, the cleaning of harvesters and silos. Aerosols have been sampled at a rate of 2L/min between 15 min to 4 hours (t) on a 5m PVC filter for estimating the total dust inhaled, on gelatine filter for the identification and quantification of molds, and on a 0.45um polycarbonate filter for endotoxin quantification. Altitude, temperature and annual average rainfall were considered for each site. The physical and chemical characteristics of soils were determined using the methods in effect at Sol Council (Nyon). Total dust has been quantified following NIOSH 0500 method. Reactive endotoxine activity has been determined with Limulus Amebocyte Lysate Assay. All molds have been identified by the pyrosequencing of ITS2 amplicons generated from bioaerosol or wheat dust genomic DNA. Results & Conclusions. Our results confirm the previous quantitative data on the worker exposure to wheat dust. In addition, they show that crop workers are systematically exposed to complex mixtures of allergens, irritants or cytotoxic components. The novelty of our study is the systematic detection of molds such as Fusarium - that is a mycotoxins producer - in the bioaerosols. The results are interpreted by taking in account the agriculture practice, the Phosphorus : Carbon : Nitrogen ratio of the soil, the altitude and the average of rainy days per year.

Factors affecting attack rate of whitefly on the eggplant

The objective of this study was to determine the effects of weather, predators and parasitoids, canopy height and plant age, leaf chemical composition, levels of leaf N and K and leaf trichomes on the intensity of Bemisia tabaci attack on Solanum melongena. A higher density of nymph and whitefly adults was recorded at the base and medium of the plant compared to the apex. A higher number of eggs was observed on the medium part than on the apical and base part of the plants dossel. An increase in the density of whitefly is associated with an increase in temperature.

Safety and Mobility Impacts of Winter Weather --Phase 3, SPR RB01-012, 2014

Highway agencies spend millions of dollars to ensure safe and efficient winter travel. However, the effectiveness of winter-weather maintenance practices on safety and mobility are somewhat difficult to quantify. Safety and Mobility Impacts of Winter Weather - Phase 1 investigated opportunities for improving traffic safety on state-maintained roads in Iowa during winter-weather conditions. In Phase 2, three Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) high-priority sites were evaluated and realistic maintenance and operations mitigation strategies were also identified. In this project, site prioritization techniques for identifying roadway segments with the potential for safety improvements related to winter-weather crashes, were developed through traditional naïve statistical methods by using raw crash data for seven winter seasons and previously developed metrics. Additionally, crash frequency models were developed using integrated crash data for four winter seasons, with the objective of identifying factors that affect crash frequency during winter seasons and screening roadway segments using the empirical Bayes technique. Based on these prioritization techniques, 11 sites were identified and analyzed in conjunction with input from Iowa DOT district maintenance managers and snowplow operators and the Iowa DOT Road Weather Information System (RWIS) coordinator.

Emerging environmental and weather challenges in outdoor sports

Given the climatic changes around the world and the growing outdoor sports participation, existing guidelines and recommendations for exercising in naturally challenging environments such as heat, cold or altitude, exhibit potential shortcomings. Continuous efforts from sport sciences and exercise physiology communities aim at minimizing the risks of environmental-related illnesses during outdoor sports practices. Despite this, the use of simple weather indices does not permit an accurate estimation of the likelihood of facing thermal illnesses. This provides a critical foundation to modify available human comfort modeling and to integrate bio-meteorological data in order to improve the current guidelines. Although it requires further refinement, there is no doubt that standardizing the recently developed Universal Thermal Climate Index approach and its application in the field of sport sciences and exercise physiology may help to improve the appropriateness of the current guidelines for outdoor, recreational and competitive sports participation. This review first summarizes the main environmental-related risk factors that are susceptible to increase with recent climate changes when exercising outside and offers recommendations to combat them appropriately. Secondly, we briefly address the recent development of thermal stress models to assess the thermal comfort and physiological responses when practicing outdoor activities in challenging environments.

The role of different factors related to social impact of heavy events: considerations about the intensity thresholds in densely populated areas

In the assessment of social impact caused by meteorological events, factors of different natures need to be considered. Not only does hazard itself determine the impact that a severe weather event has on society, but also other features related to vulnerability and exposure. The requests of data related to insurance claims received in meteorological services proved to be a good indicator of the social impact that a weather event causes, according to studies carried out by the Social Impact Research Group, created within the framework of the MEDEX project. Taking these requests as proxy data, diverse aspects connected to the impact of heavy rain events have been studied. The rainfall intensity, in conjunction with the population density, has established itself as one of the key factors in social impact studies. One of the conclusions we obtained is that various thresholds of rainfall should be applied for areas of varying populations. In this study, the role of rainfall intensity has been analysed for a highly populated urban area like Barcelona. A period without significant population changes has been selected for the study to minimise the effects linked to vulnerability and exposure modifications. First, correlations between rainfall recorded in different time intervals and requests were carried out. Afterwards, a method to include the intensity factor in the social impact index was suggested based on return periods given by intensity duration frequency (IDF) curves.

Factors affecting density of airborne Gibberella zeae inoculum

Fusarium head blight (FHB) is a disease of increasing concern in the production of wheat (Triticum aestivum). This work studied some of the factors affecting the density of airborne Gibberella zeae inoculum. Spore samplers were placed at the edge of a field in order to observe spore deposition over a period of 45 days and nights in September and October, the period that coincides with wheat flowering. Gibberella zeae colonies were counted for each period and values transformed to relative density. A stepwise regression procedure was used to identify weather variables helpful in predicting spore cloud density. In general, a predominant night-time spore deposition was observed. Precipitation and daily mean relative humidity over 90% were the factors most hightly associated with peak events of spores in the air. Models for predicting spore cloud density simulated reasonably well with the fluctuation of airborne propagules during both night and day, with potential to be integrated into an FHB risk model framework.