Wave height analysis from 10 years of observations in the Norwegian Sea

Large waves pose risks to ships, offshore structures, coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. This paper analyses 10 years of in-situ measurements of significant wave height (Hs) and maximum wave height (Hmax) from the ocean weather ship Polarfront in the Norwegian Sea. During the period 2000 to 2009, surface elevation was recorded every 0.59 s during sampling periods of 30 min. The Hmax observations scale linearly with Hs on average. A widely-used empirical Weibull distribution is found to estimate average values of Hmax/H s and Hmax better than a Rayleigh distribution, but tends to underestimate both for all but the smallest waves. In this paper we propose a modified Rayleigh distribution which compensates for the heterogeneity of the observed dataset: the distribution is fitted to the whole dataset and improves the estimate of the largest waves. Over the 10-year period, the Weibull distribution approximates the observed Hs and Hmax well, and an exponential function can be used to predict the probability distribution function of the ratio Hmax/Hs. However, the Weibull distribution tends to underestimate the occurrence of extremely large values of Hs and Hmax. The persistence of Hs and Hmax in winter is also examined. Wave fields with Hs > 12 m and Hmax > 16 m do not last longer than 3 h. Low-to-moderate wave heights that persist for more than 12 h dominate the relationship of the wave field with the winter NAO index over 2000–2009. In contrast, the inter-annual variability of wave fields with Hs > 5.5 m or Hmax > 8.5 m and wave fields persisting over ~2.5 days is not associated with the winter NAO index.

Changes in significant and maximum wave heights in the Norwegian Sea

This paper analyses 10 years of in-situ measurements of significant wave height (Hs) and maximum wave height (Hmax) from the ocean weather ship Polarfront in the Norwegian Sea. The 30-minute Ship-Borne Wave Recorder measurements of Hmax and Hs are shown to be consistent with theoretical wave distributions. The linear regression between Hmax and Hs has a slope of 1.53. Neither Hs nor Hmax show a significant trend in the period 2000–2009. These data are combined with earlier observations. The long-term trend over the period 1980–2009 in annual Hs is 2.72 ± 0.88 cm/year. Mean Hs and Hmax are both correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index during winter. The correlation with the NAO index is highest for the more frequently encountered (75th percentile) wave heights. The wave field variability associated with the NAO index is reconstructed using a 500-year NAO index record. Hs and H max are found to vary by up to 1.42 m and 3.10 m respectively over the 500-year period. Trends in all 30-year segments of the reconstructed wave field are lower than the trend in the observations during 1980–2009. The NAO index does not change significantly in 21st century projections from CMIP5 climate models under scenario RCP85, and thus no NAO-related changes are expected in the mean and extreme wave fields of the Norwegian Sea.

Exploratory Space-Time Analyses of Rift Valley Fever in South Africa in 2008-2011

Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic arbovirosis for which the primary hosts are domestic livestock (cattle, sheep and goats). RVF was first described in South Africa in 1950-1951. Mechanisms for short and long distance transmission have been hypothesised, but there is little supporting evidence. Here we describe RVF occurrence and spatial distribution in South Africa in 2008-11, and investigate the presence of a contagious process in order to generate hypotheses on the different mechanisms of transmission. Methodology/Principal Findings: A total of 658 cases were extracted from World Animal Health Information Database. Descriptive statistics, epidemic curves and maps were produced. The space-time K-function was used to test for evidence of space-time interaction. Five RVF outbreak waves (one in 2008, two in 2009, one in 2010 and one in 2011) of varying duration, location and size were reported. About 70% of cases (n = 471) occurred in 2010, when the epidemic was almost country-wide. No strong evidence of space-time interaction was found for 2008 or the second wave in 2009. In the first wave of 2009, a significant space-time interaction was detected for up to one month and over 40 km. In 2010 and 2011 a significant intense, short and localised space-time interaction (up to 3 days and 15 km) was detected, followed by one of lower intensity (up to 2 weeks and 35 to 90 km). Conclusions/Significance: The description of the spatiotemporal patterns of RVF in South Africa between 2008 and 2011 supports the hypothesis that during an epidemic, disease spread may be supported by factors other than active vector dispersal. Limitations of under-reporting and space-time K-function properties are discussed. Further spatial analyses and data are required to explain factors and mechanisms driving RVF spread. © 2012 Métras et al.

Relations Between Political Violence and Child Adjustment: a four-wave test of the role of emotional insecurity about community

This study further explored the impact of sectarian violence and children's emotional insecurity about community on child maladjustment using a 4-wave longitudinal design. The study included 999 mother-child dyads in Belfast, Northern Ireland (482 boys, 517 girls). Across the 4 waves, child mean age was 12.19 (SD = 1.82), 13.24 (SD = 1.83), 13.61 (SD = 1.99), and 14.66 years (SD = 1.96), respectively. Building on previous studies of the role of emotional insecurity in child adjustment, the current study examines within-person change in emotional insecurity using latent growth curve analyses. The results showed that children's trajectories of emotional insecurity about community were related to risk for developing conduct and emotion problems. These findings controlled for earlier adjustment problems, age, and gender, and took into account the time-varying nature of experience with sectarian violence. Discussion considers the implications for children's emotional insecurity about community for relations between political violence and children's adjustment, including the significance of trajectories of emotional insecurity over time.

African easterly wave variability and its relationship to Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

Automatic tracking of vorticity centers in European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses has been used to develop a 20-yr climatology of African easterly wave activity. The tracking statistics at 600 and 850 mb confirm the complicated easterly wave structures present over the African continent. The rainy zone equatorward of 15 degreesN is dominated by 600-mb activity, and the much drier Saharan region poleward of 15 degreesN is more dominated by 850-mb activity. Over the Atlantic Ocean there is just one storm track with the 600- and 850-mb wave activity collocated. Based on growth/decay and genesis statistics, it appears that the 850-mb waves poleward of 15 degreesN over land generally do not get involved with the equatorward storm track over the ocean. Instead, there appears to be significant development of 850-mb activity at the West African coast in the rainy zone around (10 degreesN, 10 degreesW), which, it is proposed, is associated with latent heat release. Based on the tracking statistics, it has been shown that there is marked interannual variability in African easterly wave (AEW) activity. It is especially marked at the 850-mb level at the West African coast between about 10 degrees and 15 degreesN, where the coefficient of variation is 0.29. For the period between 1985 and 1998, a notable positive correlation is seen between this AEW activity and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. This correlation is particularly strong for the postreanalysis period between 1994 and 1998. This result suggests that Atlantic tropical cyclone activity may be influenced by the number of AEWs leaving the West African coast, which have significant low-level amplitudes, and not simply by the total number of AEWs.

Accessing extremes of mid-latitudinal wave activity: methodology and application

A statistical methodology is proposed and tested for the analysis of extreme values of atmospheric wave activity at mid-latitudes. The adopted methods are the classical block-maximum and peak over threshold, respectively based on the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Time-series of the ‘Wave Activity Index’ (WAI) and the ‘Baroclinic Activity Index’ (BAI) are computed from simulations of the General Circulation Model ECHAM4.6, which is run under perpetual January conditions. Both the GEV and the GPD analyses indicate that the extremes ofWAI and BAI areWeibull distributed, this corresponds to distributions with an upper bound. However, a remarkably large variability is found in the tails of such distributions; distinct simulations carried out under the same experimental setup provide sensibly different estimates of the 200-yr WAI return level. The consequences of this phenomenon in applications of the methodology to climate change studies are discussed. The atmospheric configurations characteristic of the maxima and minima of WAI and BAI are also examined.

Wave activity in the tropical tropopause layer in seven reanalysis and four chemistry climate model data sets

Sub-seasonal variability including equatorial waves significantly influence the dehydration and transport processes in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). This study investigates the wave activity in the TTL in 7 reanalysis data sets (RAs; NCEP1, NCEP2, ERA40, ERA-Interim, JRA25, MERRA, and CFSR) and 4 chemistry climate models (CCMs; CCSRNIES, CMAM, MRI, and WACCM) using the zonal wave number-frequency spectral analysis method with equatorially symmetric-antisymmetric decomposition. Analyses are made for temperature and horizontal winds at 100 hPa in the RAs and CCMs and for outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), which is a proxy for convective activity that generates tropopause-level disturbances, in satellite data and the CCMs. Particular focus is placed on equatorial Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The wave activity is defined as the variance, i.e., the power spectral density integrated in a particular zonal wave number-frequency region. It is found that the TTL wave activities show significant difference among the RAs, ranging from ∼0.7 (for NCEP1 and NCEP2) to ∼1.4 (for ERA-Interim, MERRA, and CFSR) with respect to the averages from the RAs. The TTL activities in the CCMs lie generally within the range of those in the RAs, with a few exceptions. However, the spectral features in OLR for all the CCMs are very different from those in the observations, and the OLR wave activities are too low for CCSRNIES, CMAM, and MRI. It is concluded that the broad range of wave activity found in the different RAs decreases our confidence in their validity and in particular their value for validation of CCM performance in the TTL, thereby limiting our quantitative understanding of the dehydration and transport processes in the TTL.

Changes in significant and maximum wave heights in the Norwegian Sea

This paper analyses 10 years of in-situ measurements of significant wave height (Hs) and maximum wave height (Hmax) from the ocean weather ship Polarfront in the Norwegian Sea. The 30-minute Ship-Borne Wave Recorder measurements of Hmax and Hs are shown to be consistent with theoretical wave distributions. The linear regression between Hmax and Hs has a slope of 1.53. Neither Hs nor Hmax show a significant trend in the period 2000–2009. These data are combined with earlier observations. The long-term trend over the period 1980–2009 in annual Hs is 2.72 ± 0.88 cm/year. Mean Hs and Hmax are both correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index during winter. The correlation with the NAO index is highest for the more frequently encountered (75th percentile) wave heights. The wave field variability associated with the NAO index is reconstructed using a 500-year NAO index record. Hs and Hmax are found to vary by up to 1.42 m and 3.10 m respectively over the 500-year period. Trends in all 30-year segments of the reconstructed wave field are lower than the trend in the observations during 1980–2009. The NAO index does not change significantly in 21st century projections from CMIP5 climate models under scenario RCP85, and thus no NAO-related changes are expected in the mean and extreme wave fields of the Norwegian Sea.

Wave height analysis from 10 years of observations in the Norwegian Sea

Large waves pose risks to ships, offshore structures, coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. This paper analyses 10 years of in-situ measurements of significant wave height (Hs) and maximum wave height (Hmax) from the ocean weather ship Polarfront in the Norwegian Sea. During the period 2000 to 2009, surface elevation was recorded every 0.59 s during sampling periods of 30 min. The Hmax observations scale linearly with Hs on average. A widely-used empirical Weibull distribution is found to estimate average values of Hmax/Hs and Hmax better than a Rayleigh distribution, but tends to underestimate both for all but the smallest waves. In this paper we propose a modified Rayleigh distribution which compensates for the heterogeneity of the observed dataset: the distribution is fitted to the whole dataset and improves the estimate of the largest waves. Over the 10-year period, the Weibull distribution approximates the observed Hs and Hmax well, and an exponential function can be used to predict the probability distribution function of the ratio Hmax/Hs. However, the Weibull distribution tends to underestimate the occurrence of extremely large values of Hs and Hmax. The persistence of Hs and Hmax in winter is also examined. Wave fields with Hs>12 m and Hmax>16 m do not last longer than 3 h. Low-to-moderate wave heights that persist for more than 12 h dominate the relationship of the wave field with the winter NAO index over 2000–2009. In contrast, the inter-annual variability of wave fields with Hs>5.5 m or Hmax>8.5 m and wave fields persisting over ~2.5 days is not associated with the winter NAO index.

Development of a sequential injection-square wave voltammetry method for determination of paraquat in water samples employing the hanging mercury drop electrode

This work describes the development and optimization of a sequential injection method to automate the determination of paraquat by square-wave voltammetry employing a hanging mercury drop electrode. Automation by sequential injection enhanced the sampling throughput, improving the sensitivity and precision of the measurements as a consequence of the highly reproducible and efficient conditions of mass transport of the analyte toward the electrode surface. For instance, 212 analyses can be made per hour if the sample/standard solution is prepared off-line and the sequential injection system is used just to inject the solution towards the flow cell. In-line sample conditioning reduces the sampling frequency to 44 h(-1). Experiments were performed in 0.10 M NaCl, which was the carrier solution, using a frequency of 200 Hz, a pulse height of 25 mV, a potential step of 2 mV, and a flow rate of 100 mu L s(-1). For a concentration range between 0.010 and 0.25 mg L(-1), the current (i(p), mu A) read at the potential corresponding to the peak maximum fitted the following linear equation with the paraquat concentration (mg L(-1)): ip = (-20.5 +/- 0.3) Cparaquat -(0.02 +/- 0.03). The limits of detection and quantification were 2.0 and 7.0 mu g L(-1), respectively. The accuracy of the method was evaluated by recovery studies using spiked water samples that were also analyzed by molecular absorption spectrophotometry after reduction of paraquat with sodium dithionite in an alkaline medium. No evidence of statistically significant differences between the two methods was observed at the 95% confidence level.

Analyses of the modifications in the pi circuits for inclusion of frequency influence in transmission line representation

In this article, it is represented by state variables phase a transmission line which parameters are considered frequency independently and frequency dependent. It is analyzed what is the reasonable number of pi circuits and the number of blocks composed by parallel resistor and inductor in parallel for reduction of numerical oscillations. It is simulated the numerical routine with and without the effect of frequency in the longitudinal parameters. Initially, it is used state variables and pi circuits representing the transmission line composing a linear system which is solved by numerical routines based on the trapezoidal rule. The effect of frequency on the line is synthesized by resistors and inductors in parallel and this representation is analyzed in details. It is described transmission lines and the frequency influence in these lines through the state variables.

A case study of the 9 August 1988 South Atlantic storm: Numerical simulations of the wave activity

During 9-11 August 1988, a cyclone developed over Uruguay in the lee of the Andes Mountains and moved over the South Atlantic Ocean, where it redeveloped into an intense storm. This storm was responsible for unusual wave activity along the Brazilian shoreline from 22° to 32°S. The Brazilian news media reported the loss of at least one life, waves of 3 m and higher, and the disappearance of a drainage pipe, which weighed 8000 kg, off the shores of Rio de Janeiro. In this paper, the evolution of this intense storm and the associated ocean wave response is studied through European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses, a hydrostatic limited-area meteorological model, and a second-generation prognostic wave model. The atmospheric model results indicated the presence of a long-lived and large fetch with surface wind velocities higher than 12 m s -1 directed toward the coast. Some areas with velocities of 20 m s -1 were embedded in the fetch. The wave model forced by this wind field was able to simulate waves with a significant height of 8 m far from the coast and about 4 m in regions very close to the Brazilian coast in agreement with the occurrence reported at Rio de Janeiro. The swell propagation toward the coast of Rio de Janeiro was obstructed by a northeastward 10-m wind during the first 24-h period of the model's integration. During the second 24-h period, the fetch was still large and strong, but the obstacle was removed by a counterclockwise rotation of wind direction favoring the swell and windsea propagation toward the Rio de Janeiro coast.

Implementation of filters for image pre-processing for leaf analyses in plantations

In this work an image pre-processing module has been developed to extract quantitative information from plantation images with various degrees of infestation. Four filters comprise this module: the first one acts on smoothness of the image, the second one removes image background enhancing plants leaves, the third filter removes isolated dots not removed by the previous filter, and the fourth one is used to highlight leaves' edges. At first the filters were tested with MATLAB, for a quick visual feedback of the filters' behavior. Then the filters were implemented in the C programming language. At last, the module as been coded in VHDL for the implementation on a Stratix II family FPGA. Tests were run and the results are shown in this paper. © 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Spectral-Element and Adjoint 3D Full-Wave Tomography for the Lithosphere of Central Italy

The primary objective of this thesis is to obtain a better understanding of the 3D velocity structure of the lithosphere in central Italy. To this end, I adopted the Spectral-Element Method to perform accurate numerical simulations of the complex wavefields generated by the 2009 Mw 6.3 L’Aquila event and by its foreshocks and aftershocks together with some additional events within our target region. For the mainshock, the source was represented by a finite fault and different models for central Italy, both 1D and 3D, were tested. Surface topography, attenuation and Moho discontinuity were also accounted for. Three-component synthetic waveforms were compared to the corresponding recorded data. The results of these analyses show that 3D models, including all the known structural heterogeneities in the region, are essential to accurately reproduce waveform propagation. They allow to capture features of the seismograms, mainly related to topography or to low wavespeed areas, and, combined with a finite fault model, result into a favorable match between data and synthetics for frequencies up to ~0.5 Hz. We also obtained peak ground velocity maps, that provide valuable information for seismic hazard assessment. The remaining differences between data and synthetics led us to take advantage of SEM combined with an adjoint method to iteratively improve the available 3D structure model for central Italy. A total of 63 events and 52 stations in the region were considered. We performed five iterations of the tomographic inversion, by calculating the misfit function gradient - necessary for the model update - from adjoint sensitivity kernels, constructed using only two simulations for each event. Our last updated model features a reduced traveltime misfit function and improved agreement between data and synthetics, although further iterations, as well as refined source solutions, are necessary to obtain a new reference 3D model for central Italy tomography.

Hydrodynamic induced by an array of wave energy converters. Experimental and numerical analysis

The thesis analyses the hydrodynamic induced by an array of Wave energy Converters (WECs), under an experimental and numerical point of view. WECs can be considered an innovative solution able to contribute to the green energy supply and –at the same time– to protect the rear coastal area under marine spatial planning considerations. This research activity essentially rises due to this combined concept. The WEC under exam is a floating device belonging to the Wave Activated Bodies (WAB) class. Experimental data were performed at Aalborg University in different scales and layouts, and the performance of the models was analysed under a variety of irregular wave attacks. The numerical simulations performed with the codes MIKE 21 BW and ANSYS-AQWA. Experimental results were also used to calibrate the numerical parameters and/or to directly been compared to numerical results, in order to extend the experimental database. Results of the research activity are summarized in terms of device performance and guidelines for a future wave farm installation. The device length should be “tuned” based on the local climate conditions. The wave transmission behind the devices is pretty high, suggesting that the tested layout should be considered as a module of a wave farm installation. Indications on the minimum inter-distance among the devices are provided. Furthermore, a CALM mooring system leads to lower wave transmission and also larger power production than a spread mooring. The two numerical codes have different potentialities. The hydrodynamics around single and multiple devices is obtained with MIKE 21 BW, while wave loads and motions for a single moored device are derived from ANSYS-AQWA. Combining the experimental and numerical it is suggested –for both coastal protection and energy production– to adopt a staggered layout, which will maximise the devices density and minimize the marine space required for the installation.