Can social resilience inform SA/SIA for adaptive planning for climate change in vulnerable regions?

This book represents a landmark effort to probe and analyze the theory and empirics of designing water disaster management policies. It consists of seven chapters that examine, in-depth and comprehensively, issues that are central to crafting effective policies for water disaster management. The authors use historical surveys, institutional analysis, econometric investigations, empirical case studies, and conceptual-theoretical discussions to clarify and illuminate the complex policy process. The specific topics studied in this book include a review and analysis of key policy areas and research priority areas associated with water disaster management, community participation in disaster risk reduction, the economics and politics of ‘green’ flood control, probabilistic flood forecasting for flood risk management, polycentric governance and flood risk management, drought management with the aid of dynamic inter-generational preferences, and how social resilience can inform SA/SIA for adaptive planning for climate change in vulnerable areas. A unique feature of this book is its analysis of the causes and consequences of water disasters and efforts to address them successfully through policy-rich, cross-disciplinary and transnational papers. This book is designed to help enrich the sparse discourse on water disaster management policies and galvanize water professionals to craft creative solutions to tackle water disasters efficiently, equitably, and sustainably. This book should also be of considerable use to disaster management professionals, in general, and natural resource policy analysts.

The disaster flood experience: Older people’s poetic voices of resilience

This paper explores the experiences of older community-dwelling Australians evacuated from their homes during the 2011 and 2013 Queensland floods, applying the novel creative methodology of poetic inquiry as an analysis and interpretative tool. As well as exploring how older adults managed during a natural disaster, the paper documents the process and potential of poetic inquiry in gerontological research. The first and second poems highlight the different social resources older people have to draw on in their lives, especially during a crisis. Poem 1 (“Nobody came to help me”) illustrates how one older resident felt all alone during the flood, whereas Poem 2 (“They came from everywhere”), Poem 3 ("The Girls") and Poem 5 (“Man in Blue Shirt”) shows how supported – from both family and the wider community - other older residents felt. Poem 4 (“I can’t swim”) highlights one participant’s fear as the water rises. To date, few studies have explicitly explored older adult’s disaster experience, with this paper the first to utilise a poetic lens. We argue that poetic presentation enhances understanding of older residents’ unique experiences during a disaster, and may better engage a wider audience of policy-makers, practitioners, the general community and older people themselves in discussion about, and reflection on, the impact and experience of disasters.

The intrinsic plasticity of farm businesses and their resilience to change. An Australian example.

This paper examines the idea that plasticity in farm management introduces resilience to change and allows farm businesses to perform when operating in highly variable environments. We also argue for the need to develop and apply more integrative assessments of farm performance that combine the use of modelling tools with deliberative processes involving farmers and researchers in a co-learning process, to more effectively identify and implement more productive and resilient farm businesses. In a plastic farming system, farm management is highly contingent on environmental conditions. In plastic farming systems farm managers constantly vary crops and inputs based on the availability of limited and variable resources (e.g. land, water, finances, labour, machinery, etc.), and signals from its operating environment (e.g. climate, markets), with the objective of maximising a number of, often competing, objectives (e.g. maximise profits, minimise risks, etc.). In contrast in more rigid farming systems farm management is more calendar driven and relatively fixed sequences of crops are regularly followed over time and across the farm. Here we describe the application of a whole farm simulation model to (i) compare, in silico, the sensitivity of two farming systems designs of contrasting levels of plasticity, operating in two contrasting environments, when exposed to a stressor in the form of climate change scenarios;(ii) investigate the presence of interactions and feedbacks at the field and farm levels capable of modifying the intensity and direction of the responses to climate signals; and (iii) discuss the need for the development and application of more integrative assessments in the analysis of impacts and adaptation options to climate change. In both environments, the more plastic farm management strategy had higher median profits and was less risky for the baseline and less intensive climate change scenarios (2030). However, for the more severe climate change scenarios (2070), the benefit of plastic strategies tended to disappear. These results suggest that, to a point, farming systems having higher levels of plasticity would enable farmers to more effectively respond to climate shifts, thus ensuring the economic viability of the farm business. Though, as the intensity of the stress increases (e.g. 2070 climate change scenario) more significant changes in the farming system might be required to adapt. We also found that in the case studies analysed here, most of the impacts from the climate change scenarios on farm profit and economic risk originated from important reductions in cropping intensity and changes in crop mix rather than from changes in the yields of individual crops. Changes in cropping intensity and crop mix were explained by the combination of reductions in the number of sowing opportunities around critical times in the cropping calendar, and to operational constraints at the whole farm level i.e. limited work capacity in an environment having fewer and more concentrated sowing opportunities. This indicates that indirect impacts from shifts in climate on farm operations can be more important than direct impacts from climate on the yield of individual crops. The results suggest that due to the complexity of farm businesses, impact assessments and opportunities for adaptation to climate change might also need to be pursued at higher integration levels than the crop or the field. We conclude that plasticity can be a desirable characteristic in farming systems operating in highly variable environments, and that integrated whole farm systems analyses of impacts and adaptation to climate change are required to identify important interactions between farm management decision rules, availability of resources, and farmer's preference.

Quantifying the effects of climate change and water abstraction on a population of barramundi (Lates calcarifer), a diadromous estuarine finfish

Many aquatic species are linked to environmental drivers such as temperature and salinity through processes such as spawning, recruitment and growth. Information is needed on how fished species may respond to altered environmental drivers under climate change so that adaptive management strategies can be developed. Barramundi (Lates calcarifer) is a highly prized species of the Indo-West Pacific, whose recruitment and growth is driven by river discharge. We developed a monthly age- and length-structured population model for barramundi. Monte Carlo Markov Chain simulations were used to explore the population's response to altered river discharges under modelled total licenced water abstraction and projected climate change, derived and downscaled from Global Climate Model A1FI. Mean values of exploitable biomass, annual catch, maximum sustainable yield and spawning stock size were significantly reduced under scenarios where river discharge was reduced; despite including uncertainty. These results suggest that the upstream use of water resources and climate change have potential to significantly reduce downstream barramundi stock sizes and harvests and may undermine the inherent resilience of estuarine-dependent fisheries. © 2012 CSIRO.

Modelling the effect of plant water use traits on yield and stay-green expression in sorghum

Post-rainy sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) production underpins the livelihood of millions in the semiarid tropics, where the crop is affected by drought. Drought scenarios have been classified and quantified using crop simulation. In this report, variation in traits that hypothetically contribute to drought adaptation (plant growth dynamics, canopy and root water conducting capacity, drought stress responses) were virtually introgressed into the most common post-rainy sorghum genotype, and the influence of these traits on plant growth, development, and grain and stover yield were simulated across different scenarios. Limited transpiration rates under high vapour pressure deficit had the highest positive effect on production, especially combined with enhanced water extraction capacity at the root level. Variability in leaf development (smaller canopy size, later plant vigour or increased leaf appearance rate) also increased grain yield under severe drought, although it caused a stover yield trade-off under milder stress. Although the leaf development response to soil drying varied, this trait had only a modest benefit on crop production across all stress scenarios. Closer dissection of the model outputs showed that under water limitation, grain yield was largely determined by the amount of water availability after anthesis, and this relationship became closer with stress severity. All traits investigated increased water availability after anthesis and caused a delay in leaf senescence and led to a ‘stay-green’ phenotype. In conclusion, we showed that breeding success remained highly probabilistic; maximum resilience and economic benefits depended on drought frequency. Maximum potential could be explored by specific combinations of traits.

What does built environment research have to do with risk mitigation, resilience and disaster recovery?

One could argue that the nature of our housing stock is a key determining factor in the ability of our citizens to manage risk, be resilient to various natural and human events, and to recover from these events. Recent research has been examining current challenges posed by our housing stock and exploring potential solutions from a range of perspectives. The aim of this paper is to discuss key findings from recent built environment research in Australia to initiate cross-sectorial discussion and debate about the implications and opportunities for other sectors such as emergency management and insurance. Three recent building research projects are discussed: - Heat waves The impact of heat waves on houses and occupants, and proposed changes to building regulations, air conditioning standards and building design, to reduce risks associated with heat waves. - Net zero energy homes Exploration of the potential benefits of a strategic optimization of building quality, energy and water efficiency, and household or community level distributed energy and water services for disaster management and recovery. - Building information Mapping of the flow of information about residential buildings, and the potential for national or regional building files (in a similar manner to personal medical records) to assist all parties to make more informed decisions that impact on housing sustainability and community resilience. The paper discusses how sustainability, environmental performance and resilience are inter-related, and can be supported by building files. It concludes with a call for increased cross-sectorial collaboration to explore opportunities for a whole-of-systems approach to our built environment that addresses a range of economic and environmental challenges as well as disaster and emergency management.

Characterizing drought using the reliability-resilience-vulnerability concept

This study borrows the measures developed for the operation of water resources systems as a means of characterizing droughts in a given region. It is argued that the common approach of assessing drought using a univariate measure (severity or reliability) is inadequate as decision makers need assessment of the other facets considered here. It is proposed that the joint distribution of reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (referred to as RRV in a reservoir operation context), assessed using soil moisture data over the study region, be used to characterize droughts. Use is made of copulas to quantify the joint distribution between these variables. As reliability and resilience vary in a nonlinear but almost deterministic way, the joint probability distribution of only resilience and vulnerability is modeled. Recognizing the negative association between the two variables, a Plackett copula is used to formulate the joint distribution. The developed drought index, referred to as the drought management index (DMI), is able to differentiate the drought proneness of a given area when compared to other areas. An assessment of the sensitivity of the DMI to the length of the data segments used in evaluation indicates relative stability is achieved if the data segments are 5years or longer. The proposed approach is illustrated with reference to the Malaprabha River basin in India, using four adjoining Climate Prediction Center grid cells of soil moisture data that cover an area of approximately 12,000 km(2). (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Alterations of the global water cycle and their effects on river structure, function and services

River structure and functioning are governed naturally by geography and climate but are vulnerable to natural and human-related disturbances, ranging from channel engineering to pollution and biological invasions. Biological communities in river ecosystems are able to respond to disturbances faster than those in most other aquatic systems. However, some extremely strong or lasting disturbances constrain the responses of river organisms and jeopardise their extraordinary resilience. Among these, the artificial alteration of river drainage structure and the intense use of water resources by humans may irreversibly influence these systems. The increased canalisation and damming of river courses interferes with sediment transport, alters biogeochemical cycles and leads to a decrease in biodiversity, both at local and global scales. Furthermore, water abstraction can especially affect the functioning of arid and semi-arid rivers. In particular, interception and assimilation of inorganic nutrients can be detrimental under hydrologically abnormal conditions. Among other effects, abstraction and increased nutrient loading might cause a shift from heterotrophy to autotrophy, through direct effects on primary producers and indirect effects through food webs, even in low-light river systems. The simultaneous desires to conserve and to provide ecosystem services present several challenges, both in research and management.

Climate resilience of schools: a case study

Social and political concerns are frequently reflected in the design of school buildings, often in turn leading to the development of technical innovations. One example is a recurrent concern about the physical health of the nation, which has at several points over the last century prompted new design approaches to natural light and ventilation. The most critical concern of the current era is the global, rather than the indoor, environment. The resultant political focus on mitigating climate change has resulted in new regulations, and in turn considerable technical changes in building design and construction. The vanguard of this movement has again been in school buildings, set the highest targets for reducing operational carbon by the previous Government. The current austerity measures have moved the focus to the refurbishment and retrofit of existing buildings, in order to bring them up to the exacting new standards. Meanwhile there is little doubt that climate change is happening already, and that the impacts will be considerable. Climate scientists have increasing confidence in their predictions for the future; if today’s buildings are to be resilient to these changes, building designers will need to understand and design for the predicted climates in order to continue to provide comfortable and healthy spaces through the lifetimes of the buildings. This paper describes the decision processes, and the planned design measures, for adapting an existing school for future climates. The project is at St Faith’s School in Cambridge, and focuses on three separate buildings: a large Victorian block built as a substantial domestic dwelling in 1885, a smaller single storey 1970s block with a new extension, and an as-yet unbuilt single storey block designed to passivhaus principles and using environmentally friendly materials. The implications of climate change have been considered for the three particular issues of comfort, construction, and water, as set out in the report on Design for Future Climate: opportunities for adaptation in the built environment (Gething, 2010). The adaptation designs aim to ensure each of the three very different buildings remains fit for purpose throughout the 21st century, continuing to provide a healthy environment for the children. A forth issue, the reduction of carbon and the mitigation of other negative environmental impacts of the construction work, is also a fundamental aim for the school and the project team. Detailed modelling of both the operational and embodied energy and carbon of the design options is therefore being carried out, in order that the whole life carbon costs of the adaptation design options may be minimised. The project has been funded by the Technology Strategy Board as part of the Design for Future Climates programme; the interdisciplinary team includes the designers working on the current school building projects and the school bursar, supported by researchers from the University of Cambridge Centre for Sustainable Development. It is hoped that lessons from the design process, as well as the solutions themselves, will be transferable to other buildings in similar climatic regions.

Tomorrow's cities - a framework for building resilience

Urbanisation is the great driving force of the twenty-first century. Cities are associated with both productivity and creativity, and the benefits offered by closely connected and high density living and working contribute to sustainability. At the same time, cities need extensive infrastructure – like water, power, sanitation and transportation systems – to operate effectively. Cities therefore comprise multiple components, forming both static and dynamic systems that are interconnected directly and indirectly on a number of levels, all forming the backdrop for the interaction of people and processes. Bringing together large numbers of people and complex products in rich interactions can lead to vulnerability from hazards, threats and even trends, whether natural hazards, epidemics, political upheaval, demographic changes, economic instability and/or mechanical failures; The key to countering vulnerability is the identification of critical systems and clear understanding of their interactions and dependencies. Critical systems can be assessed methodically to determine the implications of their failure and their interconnectivities with other systems to identify options. The overriding need is to support resilience – defined here as the degree to which a system or systems can continue to function effectively in a changing environment. Cities need to recognise the significance of devising adaptation strategies and processes to address a multitude of uncertainties relating to climate, economy, growth and demography. In this paper we put forward a framework to support cities in understanding the hazards, threats and trends that can make them vulnerable to unexpected changes and unpredictable shocks. The framework draws on an asset model of the city, in which components that contribute to resilience include social capital, economic assets, manufactured assets, and governance. The paper reviews the field, and draws together an overarching framework intended to help cities plan a robust trajectory towards increased resilience through flexibility, resourcefulness and responsiveness. It presents some brief case studies demonstrating the applicability of the proposed framework to a wide variety of circumstances.

"Getting-by', Coping and Resilience in Difficult Times: Initial Findings

A report provided the initial findings from a research project that examined the resilience of households in Northern Ireland. Drawing on baseline survey data and qualitative interviews with households across four neighbourhoods, it outlined a range of challenges and the strategies used by households to 'get by'. The report said that, for these households, resilience was not about 'bouncing back', 'flourishing', or 'thriving' in the face of adversity, but was about not being overcome, 'getting-by', enduring, surviving, just 'getting on with things', and 'keeping their heads above the water'. The report noted the susceptibility of households to future stressors, such as welfare reform, especially those on means-tested benefits or with long-term illness or disability. Place, and relationships with family and friends, appeared to be important for resilience and future work would investigate this further. The report highlighted issues around the measurement of resilience and noted the importance of qualitative work.

Resilience in a Watershed Governance Context: A Primer

Watersheds are complex systems involving social, economic, and ecological dimensions that are constantly interacting and influencing each other, and governance of these systems involve a large and diverse cast of actors that add to the complexity and difficulty in deciding what is best for the watershed and people. Resilience thinking offers a way to understand and navigate the uncertainty, dynamics and complexity of watershed governance. This primer describes key ideas associated with resilience: more inclusive participation; building a shared understanding; inclusion of ecosystem services and functions in long-term planning; strong leadership; institutional and decision making flexibility; and, a decentralized system. This primer is an initial effort to translate the scholarly understanding of these key ideas and initiate a dialogue about their application in the context of watershed governance.

Effects of changing water availability on land use in irrigated mountain oases of Al Jabal Al Akhdar, northern Oman

In Oman, during the last three decades, agricultural water use and groundwater extraction has dramatically increased to meet the needs of a rapidly growing population and major changes in lifestyle. This has triggered agricultural land-use changes which have been poorly investigated. In view of this our study aimed at analysing patterns of shortterm land-use changes (2007-2009) in the five irrigated mountain oases of Ash Sharayjah, Al’Ayn, Al’Aqr, Qasha’ and Masayrat ar Ruwajah situated in the northern Oman Hajar mountains of Al Jabal Al Akhdar where competitive uses of irrigation water are particularly apparent. Comprehensive GIS-based field surveys were conducted over three years to record changes in terrace use in these five oases where farmers have traditionally adapted to rain-derived variations of irrigation water supply, e.g. by leaving agricultural terraces of annual crops uncultivated in drought years. Results show that the area occupied with field crops decreased in the dry years of 2008 and 2009 for all oases. In Ash Sharayjah, terrace areas grown with field crops declined from 4.7 ha (32.4 % of total terrace area) in 2007 to 3.1 ha (21.6 %) in 2008 and 3.0 ha (20.5 %) in 2009. Similarly, the area proportion of field crops shrunk in Al’Ayn, Qasha’ and Masayrat from 35.2, 36.3 and 49.6 % in 2007 to 19.8, 8.5 and 41.3 % in 2009, respectively. In Al’Aqr, the area of field crops slightly increased from 0.3 ha (17.0 %) in 2007 to 0.7 (39.1 %) in 2008, and decreased to 0.5 ha (28.8 %) in 2009. During the same period annual dry matter yields of the cash crop garlic in Ash Sharayjah increased from 16.3 t ha-1 in 2007 to 19.8 t ha-1 in 2008 and 18.3 t ha-1 in 2009, while the same crop yielded only 0.4, 1.6 and 1.1 t ha-1 in Masayrat. In 2009, the total estimated agricultural area of the new town of Sayh Qatanah above the five oases was around 13.5 ha. Our results suggest that scarcity of irrigation water as a result of low precipitation and increased irrigation and home water consumption in the new urban settlements above the five oases have led to major shifts in the land-use pattern and increasingly threaten the centuries-long tradition and drought-resilience of agriculture in the oases of the studied watershed.

The impact of climate change on the treatability of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in upland water supplies: A UK perspective

Climate change in the UK is expected to cause increases in temperatures, altered precipitation patterns and more frequent and extreme weather events. In this review we discuss climate effects on dissolved organic matter (DOM), how altered DOM and water physico-chemical properties will affect treatment processes and assess the utility of techniques used to remove DOM and monitor water quality. A critical analysis of the literature has been undertaken with a focus on catchment drivers of DOM character, removal of DOM via coagulation and the formation of disinfectant by-products (DBPs). We suggest that: (1) upland catchments recovering from acidification will continue to produce more DOM with a greater hydrophobic fraction as solubility controls decrease; (2) greater seasonality in DOM export is likely in future due to altered precipitation patterns; (3) changes in species diversity and water properties could encourage algal blooms; and (4) that land management and vegetative changes may have significant effects on DOM export and treatability but require further research. Increases in DBPs may occur where catchments have high influence from peatlands or where algal blooms become an issue. To increase resilience to variable DOM quantity and character we suggest that one or more of the following steps are undertaken at the treatment works: a) ‘enhanced coagulation’ optimised for DOM removal; b) switching from aluminium to ferric coagulants and/or incorporating coagulant aids; c) use of magnetic ion-exchange (MIEX) pre-coagulation; and d) activated carbon filtration post-coagulation. Fluorescence and UV absorbance techniques are highlighted as potential methods for low-cost, rapid on-line process optimisation to improve DOM removal and minimise DBPs.