Uma metodologia multicritério construtivista de avaliação de alternativas para o planejamento de recursos hídricos de bacias hidrográficas

De acordo com a Lei Federal n° 9.433/97, que instituiu a Política e o Sistema Nacional de Gerenciamento dos Recursos Hídricos, o planejamento de recursos hídricos deve ter um enfoque sistêmico, de uso múltiplo das águas e descentralização das decisões, adotando a bacia hidrográfica como unidade de gestão. Dentro deste contexto, de descentralização de decisões e participação de grandes grupos no processo de tomada de decisão sobre a gestão dos recursos hídricos, os procedimentos clássicos de avaliação de alternativas para planejar o uso, controle e proteção das águas tornam-se limitados por sua impossibilidade de incluir outros critérios, além da minimização dos custos ou da maximização dos benefícios, e por não considerarem a subjetividade inerente ao processo de tomada de decisão, que corresponde ao sistema de valores dos atores envolvidos na tomada de decisões. Assim, este trabalho apresenta um Método Multicritério em Apoio à Decisão para o planejamento de recursos hídricos de bacias hidrográficas, que além de incorporar vários critérios na avaliação de alternativas, por adotar uma abordagem construtivista, propicia a participação de todos os atores envolvidos no processo de tomada de decisão. Para testar a aplicabilidade prática do método proposto foi escolhida a bacia hidrográfica do rio dos Sinos, localizada no estado do Rio Grande do Sul, sendo construído um Modelo Multicritério de Avaliação de Alternativas para o Plano da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio dos Sinos. Os resultados do trabalho demonstraram a robustez da proposta que, ao possibilitar a geração e avaliação de alternativas para o Plano da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio dos Sinos, a partir de diversos critérios, e levando em conta o sistema de valores dos decisores, se constituiu em um diferencial capaz de conferir maior legitimidade ao processo de tomada de decisões sobre o planejamento de recursos hídricos de bacias hidrográficas.

Caracterização tectono-estratigráfica da sequência transicional na sub-bacia de Sergipe

This thesis deals with the tectonic-stratigraphic evolution of the Transitional Sequence in the Sergipe Sub-basin (the southern segment of the Sergipe-Alagoas Basin, Northeast Brazil), deposited in the time interval of the upper Alagoas/Aptian stage. Sequence boundaries and higher order internal sequences were identified, as well as the structures that affect or control its deposition. This integrated approach aimed to characterize the geodynamic setting and processes active during deposition of the Transitional Sequence, and its relations with the evolutionary tectonic stages recognized in the East Brazilian Margin basins. This subject addresses more general questions discussed in the literature, regarding the evolution from the Rift to the Drift stages, the expression and significance of the breakup unconformity, the relationships between sedimentation and tectonics at extensional settings, as well as the control on subsidence processes during this time interval. The tectonic-stratigraphic analysis of the Transitional Sequence was based on seismic sections and well logs, distributed along the Sergipe Sub-basin (SBSE). Geoseismic sections and seismic facies analysis, stratigraphic profiles and sections, were compiled through the main structural blocks of this sub-basin. These products support the depositional and tectonic-stratigraphic evolutionary models built for this sequence. The structural analysis highlighted similarities in deformation styles and kinematics during deposition of the Rift and Transitional sequences, pointing to continuing lithospheric extensional processes along a NW trend (X strain axis) until the end of deposition of the latter sequence was finished by the end of late Aptian. The late stage of extension/rifting was marked by (i) continuous (or as pulses) fault activity along the basin, controling subsidence and creation of depositional space, thereby characterizing upper crustal thinning and (ii) sagstyle deposition of the Transitional Sequence at a larger scale, reflecting the ductile stretching and thinnning of lower and sub crustal layers combined with an increasing importance of the thermal subsidence regime. Besides the late increments of rift tectonics, the Transitional Sequence is also affected by reactivation of the border faults of SBSE, during and after deposition of the Riachuelo Formation (lower section of the Transgressive Marine Sequence, of Albian age). It is possible that this reactivation reflects (through stress propagation along the newlycreated continental margin) the rifting processes still active further north, between the Alagoas Sub-basin and the Pernambuco-Paraíba Basin. The evaporitic beds of the Transitional Sequence contributed to the development of post-rift structures related to halokinesis and the continental margin collapse, affecting strata of the overlying marine sequences during the Middle Albian to the Maastrichtian, or even the Paleogene time interval. The stratigraphic analysis evidenced 5 depositional sequences of higher order, whose vertical succession indicates an upward increase of the base level, marked by deposition of continental siliciclastic systems overlain by lagunar-evaporitic and restricted marine systems, indicating that the Transitional Sequence was deposited during relative increase of the eustatic sea level. At a 2nd order cycle, the Transitional Sequence may represent the initial deposition of a Transgressive Systems Tract, whose passage to a Marine Transgressive Sequence would also be marked by the drowning of the depositional systems. At a 3rd order cycle, the sequence boundary corresponds to a local unconformity that laterally grades to a widespread correlative conformity. This boundary surface corresponds to a breakup unconformity , being equivalent to the Pre-Albian Unconformity at the SBSE and contrasting with the outstanding Pre-upper Alagoas Unconformity at the base of the Transitional Sequence; the latter is alternatively referred, in the literature, as the breakup unconformity. This Thesis supports the Pre-Albian Unconformity as marker of a major change in the (Rift-Drift) depositional and tectonic setting at SBSE, with equivalent but also diachronous boundary surfaces in other basins of the Atlantic margin. The Pre-upper Alagoas Unconformity developed due to astenosphere uplift (heating under high lithospheric extension rates) and post-dates the last major fault pulse and subsequent extensive block erosion. Later on, the number and net slip of active faults significantly decrease. At deep to ultra deep water basin segments, seaward-dipping reflectors (SDRs) are unconformably overlain by the seismic horizons correlated to the Transitional Sequence. The SDRs volcanic rocks overly (at least in part) continental crust and are tentatively ascribed to melting by adiabatic decompression of the rising astenospheric mantle. Even though being a major feature of SBSE (and possibly of other basins), the Pre-upper Alagoas Unconformity do not correspond to the end of lithospheric extension processes and beginning of seafloor spreading, as shown by the crustal-scale extensional structures that post-date the Transitional Sequence. Based on this whole context, deposition of the Transitional Sequence is better placed at a late interval of the Rift Stage, with the advance of an epicontinental sea over a crustal segment still undergoing extension. Along this segment, sedimentation was controled by a combination of thermal and mechanical subsidence. In continuation, the creation of oceanic lithosphere led to a decline in the mechanical subsidence component, extension was transferred to the mesoceanic ridge and the newly-formed continental margin (and the corresponding Marine Sequence) began to be controlled exclusively by the thermal subsidence component. Classical concepts, multidisciplinary data and new architectural and evolutionary crustal models can be reconciled and better understood under these lines

A importância da água para a percepção turística na bacia do rio formoso em Bonito-MS

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Pollen record from Golkow, Poland

Janczyk-Kopikowa (1966): The series of the organic deposits, developed in the vicinity of Golkow near Warsaw as oil shales and peats, was laid down in a grough valley and now rests on the deposits of the Middle Polish Glaciation (Riss). The organic deposits are overlain by the fluviale deposits of the North Polish Glaciation (Würm). The locality Golkow occurs beyond the extent of the continental glacier of this glaciation. Polen analysis completed by microfloristic examinations allows to determine the age of the organic series that is thought to be Eemian. The pollen diagram from Golkow does not call in question the stratigraphical position of the deposits investigated mainly due to its characteristic features such as minimum content of coniferous trees in the climatic optimum - about 5%, high percentage of Corylus - 77.5% and well developed phase of hornbeam. It may be well compared with other Eemian diagrams from the area of Poland and reveals much similar features. The development of vegetation at Golkow has depended upon the prevailing climate. At first, the cool climate brings about the development of plants having small thermal requirements. Here belong thin, park-like forests with pine and birch (Pinus, Betula) accompanied by the heliophilic plants such as Hippohäe and Ephedra. Improvement of climate that becomes warm and humid provides for development of deciduous forests prevailing in the climatic optimum, of the interglacial. Decrease of temperature causes a repeated change in the type of forest. This latter changes into coniferous forest with prevailing spruce (Picea) and fir (Abies) at the beginning, and then with pine (Pinus) and birch (Betula). During the Eemian Interglacial, the development of plants at Golkow terminates with a new and long-lasting predominance of pine-birch forests. However, such a longevity may be apparent only. Apparent character of this phenomenon is proved by a fact that the pollen spectra of the warm climatic periods have found their reflex in the oil shale that increased considerably slower than the layers off feebly decomposed peat evidencing the existence of cool pine-birch forests from the decline of the Interglacial. The water basin, in which the polen grains were laid down from surrounding plants is characterized by a calm sedimentation as proved by the occurrence of the oil shale. An insignificant water flow left behind some thin sand laminae. The not too deep basin becomes shallower owing to the growing water vegetation, and marshy vegetation. The growing of the plants causes a complete shallowing of the basin and formation of peat bog in situ, as proved by the peat beds occurring in the section. ---- Gadomska (1966): In the vicinity of Golków a series of organic deposits occurs amounting to 6.5-9.3 m in thickness, and consisting of oil shales, lacustrine silts and sands, as well as peats and peaty silts. The organic deposits fill up an old, small, but fairly deep lake basin, probably of finger-lake origin. It may be seen to-day as a slight lowering of the relief, filled up with soaked ground, stretching from north to south. On the basis of palaeobotanical examinations the organic deposits considered are of Eemian Interglacial age (Z. Janczyk-Kopikowa, 1063). The lower part of the organic series consists of a compact oil shale horizon, the maximum thickness of which may attain up to 8 m. The oil shales contain particularly in their upper part, numerous intercalations of arenaceous silts, dark grey or black in colour, or of sands mainly of lacustrine provenance. At the top of the oil shales are found peats, up to 2.5 m in thickness, covered by black, humus silts with numerous plant remains. The Eemian Interglacial deposits are covered by a series of fluviatile sands belonging partly to the Baltic Glaciation (bottom part of the series), partly to the Holocene (top part of the series). The thickness of the sands is 0.5-3.7 m. Higher up, there are found the Holocene and present-day deposits developed as clayey alluvion, or arenaceous slide rocks, or arenaceous-silty soil.

Bitumoids and methane in bottom sediments of the northeast Black Sea

Complex investigations of recent and ancient Black Sea sediments from the outer shelf, continental slope, and deep-water basin of the Russian Black Sea sector have been carried out. Samples were collected during Cruise 100 of R/V Professor Shtokman organized by the P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology (March 2009) and expedition of UZHMORGEO (summer 2006). Rates of the main anaerobic processes during diagenesis (sulfate reduction, dark CO2 assimilation, methanogenesis, and methane oxidation) were studied for the first time in sediment cores of the studied area. Two peaks in the rate of microbial processes and two sources of these processes were identified: the upper peak near the water-sediment contact is related to solar energy (OM substrate of the water column) and the lower peak at the base of ancient Black Sea sediments with high(>1 mmol) methane concentration related to energy of anaerobic methane oxidation. New labile OM formed during this process is utilized by other groups of microorganisms. According to experimental data, daily rate of anaerobic methane oxidation is many times higher than that of methanogenesis, which unambiguously indicates migration nature of the main part of methane.

Geochemistry of evaporite in the Red Sea

One of the major shipboard findings during Leg 23 drilling in the Red Sea was the presence of late Miocene evaporites at Sites 225, 227, and 228. The top of the evaporite sequence correlates with a strong reflector (Reflector S) which has been mapped over much of the Red Sea (Ross et al., 1969, Phillips and Ross, 1970). This indicates that the Red Sea appears to be extent. Miocene sediments, including evaporites, are known from a few outcrops along the coastal plains of the Gulf of Suez to lat 14°N (Sadek, 1959, cited in Friedman, 1972; Heybroek, 1965; Friedman, 1972). Along the length of the Red Sea, the presence of Miocene salt is indicated by seismic reflection studies (Lowell and Genik, 1972) and confirmed by drilling. The recently published data from deep exploratory wells (Ahmed, 1972) demonstrate the great thickness of elastics and evaporites which were deposited in the Red Sea depression during Miocene time. The Red Sea evaporites are of the same age as the evaporites found by deep sea drilling (DSDP Leg 13) in the Mediterranean Sea. Therefore, Reflector S in the Red Sea is comparable to Reflector M in the Mediterranean. It is assumed that during Miocene time a connection between these two basins was established (Coleman, this volume) resulting in a similar origin for the evaporites deposited in the Red Sea and in the Mediterranean Sea. The origin of the Mediterranean evaporites has been discussed in great detail (Hsü et al., 1973; Nesteroff, 1973; Friedman, 1973). The formation of evaporites may be interpreted by three different hypotheses. 1) Evaporation of a shallow restricted shelf sea or lagoon which receives inflows from the open ocean. 2) Evaporation of a deep-water basin which is separated from the open ocean by a shallow sill (Schmalz, 1969). 3) Evaporation of playas or salt lakes which are situated in desiccated deep basins isolated from the open ocean (Hsü et al., 1973). The purpose of this study is to show whether one of these models might apply to the formation and deposition of the Red Sea evaporites. Therefore, a detailed petrographic and geochemical investigation was carried out.

Strontium-isotope stratigraphy and oxygen- and carbon-isotope record of Middle Jurassic to Early Cretaceous belemnites in the South Atlantic

87Sr/86Sr data of belemnites are presented from a Middle Jurassic-Early Cretaceous succession from the Falkland Plateau (Deep Sea Drilling Project Sites 511 and 330) that was deposited in a periodically anoxic, semi-enclosed shallow water basin. Diagenetically screened strontium-isotope values of 0.706789 rise to 0.707044 before increasing sharply to 0.707428 in the uppermost part of the sampled succession. Comparison with published strontium calibration curves suggests that the oldest samples were Callovian to Oxfordian in age, whilst the remainder of the Jurassic part of the succession consisted of Kimmeridgian and Early Tithonian age sediments. The nannofossil, dinoflagellate and molluscan assemblages provide comparable age determinations. The strontium-isotope analysis of the youngest belemnites points to a Hauterivian-Barremian age, whilst age interpretations based upon the fauna provide a wide age range from the Barremian to early Albian. Strontium-isotope stratigraphy of this succession hence offers increased age resolution providing data regarding the timing of episodes of bottom water anoxia which have been recorded throughout the South Atlantic Basin. Well-preserved belemnite specimens display an oxygen-isotope range between +0.08 and -2.22? (PDB, Peedee belemnite international standard) and a carbon-isotope range from +2.35 to -1.33? (PDB). Delta13C values become increasingly negative through the Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous and in concert with the 87Sr/86Sr data reveal a trend that could be accounted for by increasing levels of weathering and erosion. The oxygen-isotope data if interpreted in terms of palaeotemperature are consistent with warm palaeotemperatures in the Kimmeridgian and slightly cooler temperatures for the Tithonian and Early Cretaceous parts of the succession. The proposed relative Kimmeridgian warmth (based upon strontium-isotope age assignments) is thus in good agreement with other published palaeotemperature records.

Computational and Experimental Modelling of Mooring Lines Dynamics for Offshore Floating Wind Turbines

El cálculo de cargas de aerogeneradores flotantes requiere herramientas de simulación en el dominio del tiempo que consideren todos los fenómenos que afectan al sistema, como la aerodinámica, la dinámica estructural, la hidrodinámica, las estrategias de control y la dinámica de las líneas de fondeo. Todos estos efectos están acoplados entre sí y se influyen mutuamente. Las herramientas integradas se utilizan para calcular las cargas extremas y de fatiga que son empleadas para dimensionar estructuralmente los diferentes componentes del aerogenerador. Por esta razón, un cálculo preciso de las cargas influye de manera importante en la optimización de los componentes y en el coste final del aerogenerador flotante. En particular, el sistema de fondeo tiene gran impacto en la dinámica global del sistema. Muchos códigos integrados para la simulación de aerogeneradores flotantes utilizan modelos simplificados que no consideran los efectos dinámicos de las líneas de fondeo. Una simulación precisa de las líneas de fondeo dentro de los modelos integrados puede resultar fundamental para obtener resultados fiables de la dinámica del sistema y de los niveles de cargas en los diferentes componentes. Sin embargo, el impacto que incluir la dinámica de los fondeos tiene en la simulación integrada y en las cargas todavía no ha sido cuantificada rigurosamente. El objetivo principal de esta investigación es el desarrollo de un modelo dinámico para la simulación de líneas de fondeo con precisión, validarlo con medidas en un tanque de ensayos e integrarlo en un código de simulación para aerogeneradores flotantes. Finalmente, esta herramienta, experimentalmente validada, es utilizada para cuantificar el impacto que un modelos dinámicos de líneas de fondeo tienen en la computación de las cargas de fatiga y extremas de aerogeneradores flotantes en comparación con un modelo cuasi-estático. Esta es una información muy útil para los futuros diseñadores a la hora de decidir qué modelo de líneas de fondeo es el adecuado, dependiendo del tipo de plataforma y de los resultados esperados. El código dinámico de líneas de fondeo desarrollado en esta investigación se basa en el método de los Elementos Finitos, utilizando en concreto un modelo ”Lumped Mass” para aumentar su eficiencia de computación. Los experimentos realizados para la validación del código se realizaron en el tanque del École Céntrale de Nantes (ECN), en Francia, y consistieron en sumergir una cadena con uno de sus extremos anclados en el fondo del tanque y excitar el extremo suspendido con movimientos armónicos de diferentes periodos. El código demostró su capacidad para predecir la tensión y los movimientos en diferentes posiciones a lo largo de la longitud de la línea con gran precisión. Los resultados indicaron la importancia de capturar la dinámica de las líneas de fondeo para la predicción de la tensión especialmente en movimientos de alta frecuencia. Finalmente, el código se utilizó en una exhaustiva evaluación del efecto que la dinámica de las líneas de fondeo tiene sobre las cargas extremas y de fatiga de diferentes conceptos de aerogeneradores flotantes. Las cargas se calcularon para tres tipologías de aerogenerador flotante (semisumergible, ”spar-buoy” y ”tension leg platform”) y se compararon con las cargas obtenidas utilizando un modelo cuasi-estático de líneas de fondeo. Se lanzaron y postprocesaron más de 20.000 casos de carga definidos por la norma IEC 61400-3 siguiendo todos los requerimientos que una entidad certificadora requeriría a un diseñador industrial de aerogeneradores flotantes. Los resultados mostraron que el impacto de la dinámica de las líneas de fondeo, tanto en las cargas de fatiga como en las extremas, se incrementa conforme se consideran elementos situados más cerca de la plataforma: las cargas en la pala y en el eje sólo son ligeramente modificadas por la dinámica de las líneas, las cargas en la base de la torre pueden cambiar significativamente dependiendo del tipo de plataforma y, finalmente, la tensión en las líneas de fondeo depende fuertemente de la dinámica de las líneas, tanto en fatiga como en extremas, en todos los conceptos de plataforma que se han evaluado. ABSTRACT The load calculation of floating offshore wind turbine requires time-domain simulation tools taking into account all the phenomena that affect the system such as aerodynamics, structural dynamics, hydrodynamics, control actions and the mooring lines dynamics. These effects present couplings and are mutually influenced. The results provided by integrated simulation tools are used to compute the fatigue and ultimate loads needed for the structural design of the different components of the wind turbine. For this reason, their accuracy has an important influence on the optimization of the components and the final cost of the floating wind turbine. In particular, the mooring system greatly affects the global dynamics of the floater. Many integrated codes for the simulation of floating wind turbines use simplified approaches that do not consider the mooring line dynamics. An accurate simulation of the mooring system within the integrated codes can be fundamental to obtain reliable results of the system dynamics and the loads. The impact of taking into account the mooring line dynamics in the integrated simulation still has not been thoroughly quantified. The main objective of this research consists on the development of an accurate dynamic model for the simulation of mooring lines, validate it against wave tank tests and then integrate it in a simulation code for floating wind turbines. This experimentally validated tool is finally used to quantify the impact that dynamic mooring models have on the computation of fatigue and ultimate loads of floating wind turbines in comparison with quasi-static tools. This information will be very useful for future designers to decide which mooring model is adequate depending on the platform type and the expected results. The dynamic mooring lines code developed in this research is based in the Finite Element Method and is oriented to the achievement of a computationally efficient code, selecting a Lumped Mass approach. The experimental tests performed for the validation of the code were carried out at the `Ecole Centrale de Nantes (ECN) wave tank in France, consisting of a chain submerged into a water basin, anchored at the bottom of the basin, where the suspension point of the chain was excited with harmonic motions of different periods. The code showed its ability to predict the tension and the motions at several positions along the length of the line with high accuracy. The results demonstrated the importance of capturing the evolution of the mooring dynamics for the prediction of the line tension, especially for the high frequency motions. Finally, the code was used for an extensive assessment of the effect of mooring dynamics on the computation of fatigue and ultimate loads for different floating wind turbines. The loads were computed for three platforms topologies (semisubmersible, spar-buoy and tension leg platform) and compared with the loads provided using a quasi-static mooring model. More than 20,000 load cases were launched and postprocessed following the IEC 61400-3 guideline and fulfilling the conditions that a certification entity would require to an offshore wind turbine designer. The results showed that the impact of mooring dynamics in both fatigue and ultimate loads increases as elements located closer to the platform are evaluated; the blade and the shaft loads are only slightly modified by the mooring dynamics in all the platform designs, the tower base loads can be significantly affected depending on the platform concept and the mooring lines tension strongly depends on the lines dynamics both in fatigue and extreme loads in all the platform concepts evaluated.

Proceedings.

Mode of access: Internet.

Dinâmica do desflorestamento e uso das terras na região dos formadores do rio Xingu.

Because of the occupation occurred in the last thirty years at Xingu river basin, this region has been suffering a large deforestation pressure, especially on its headwaters areas. This study aims to apply GIS techniques to evaluate how land use change has influenced the deforestation dynamics of Xingu water basin in Mato Grosso State. For that, a GIS based study was carried out were the deforestation data for the period between 2000 and 2005 was spatially integrated with settlement areas, indigenous lands, sites of mineral deposits and prospect areas. From this spatially integration, it was possible to analyze statistically how the deforestation has manifested on each kind of occupation, considering the original forest area. The techniques used, including inventory and database organization on GIS environment, and spatial analysis tools made it possible to analyze the deforestation in the Xingu basin in Mato Grosso State between the period of 2000 and 2005, and identify the most affected areas, considering different land uses.

Logan Basin Water Resource Plan : environmental assessment of the southern Moreton Bay islands. Technical Advisory Panel Report: Stage 1.

This report is a technical assessment of the hydrological environment of the southern Moreton Bay islands and follows the terms of reference supplied by the then Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Water. The terms of reference describe stage 1 as a condition assessment and stage 2 as an assessment of the implications of water planning scenarios on future condition. This report is the first stage of a two-stage investigation whose primary purpose is to identify and assess groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs) and the groundwater flow regimes necessary to support them. Within this context, the groundwaters themselves are also considered and comment made on their condition. Information provided in this report will inform an amendment to the Logan Basin Water Resource Plan to incorporate the southern Moreton Bay islands. The study area is the water resource plan amendment area, which includes North and South Stradbroke islands and the smaller islands between these and the mainland, including the inhabited smaller rocky islands—namely, Macleay, Russell, Karragarra, Lamb and Coochiemudlo islands. This assessment is largely a desktop study based on existing information, but incorporates some field observations, input from experts in specific areas and community representatives, and the professional experience and knowledge of the authors. This report reviews existing research and information on the southern Moreton Bay area with an emphasis on North Stradbroke Island, as it represents the largest and most regionally significant groundwater resource in southern Moreton Bay. The report provides an assessment of key waterrelated environmental features, their condition and their degree of dependence on groundwater. This report also assesses the condition and status of ecosystems within this region. In addition, the report identifies information gaps, uncertainties and potential impacts; reviews groundwater models that have been developed for North Stradbroke Island; and makes recommendations on monitoring and research needs.

Optimal crop planning and conjunctive use of water resources in a coastal river basin

Due to increasing trend of intensive rice cultivation in a coastal river basin, crop planning and groundwater management are imperative for the sustainable agriculture. For effective management, two models have been developed viz. groundwater balance model and optimum cropping and groundwater management model to determine optimum cropping pattern and groundwater allocation from private and government tubewells according to different soil types (saline and non-saline), type of agriculture (rainfed and irrigated) and seasons (monsoon and winter). A groundwater balance model has been developed considering mass balance approach. The components of the groundwater balance considered are recharge from rainfall, irrigated rice and non-rice fields, base flow from rivers and seepage flow from surface drains. In the second phase, a linear programming optimization model is developed for optimal cropping and groundwater management for maximizing the economic returns. The models developed were applied to a portion of coastal river basin in Orissa State, India and optimal cropping pattern for various scenarios of river flow and groundwater availability was obtained.

Simulated water resource impacts and livelihood implications of stakeholder-developed scenarios in the Jaldhaka Basin, India

This paper shows how multidisciplinary research can help policy makers develop policies for sustainable agricultural water management interventions by supporting a dialogue between government departments that are in charge of different aspects of agricultural development. In the Jaldhaka Basin in West Bengal, India, a stakeholder dialogue helped identify potential water resource impacts and livelihood implications of an agricultural water management rural electrification scenario. Hydrologic modelling demonstrated that the expansion of irrigation is possible with only a localized effect on groundwater levels, but cascading effects such as declining soil fertility and negative impacts from agrochemicals will need to be addressed.

Basin Scale Water Resources Systems Modeling Under Cascading Uncertainties

Global change in climate and consequent large impacts on regional hydrologic systems have, in recent years, motivated significant research efforts in water resources modeling under climate change. In an integrated future hydrologic scenario, it is likely that water availability and demands will change significantly due to modifications in hydro-climatic variables such as rainfall, reservoir inflows, temperature, net radiation, wind speed and humidity. An integrated regional water resources management model should capture the likely impacts of climate change on water demands and water availability along with uncertainties associated with climate change impacts and with management goals and objectives under non-stationary conditions. Uncertainties in an integrated regional water resources management model, accumulating from various stages of decision making include climate model and scenario uncertainty in the hydro-climatic impact assessment, uncertainty due to conflicting interests of the water users and uncertainty due to inherent variability of the reservoir inflows. This paper presents an integrated regional water resources management modeling approach considering uncertainties at various stages of decision making by an integration of a hydro-climatic variable projection model, a water demand quantification model, a water quantity management model and a water quality control model. Modeling tools of canonical correlation analysis, stochastic dynamic programming and fuzzy optimization are used in an integrated framework, in the approach presented here. The proposed modeling approach is demonstrated with the case study of the Bhadra Reservoir system in Karnataka, India.