FUELGEN: effective evolutionary design of refuellings for pressurized water reactors

The paper describes the design of an efficient and robust genetic algorithm for the nuclear fuel loading problem (i.e., refuellings: the in-core fuel management problem) - a complex combinatorial, multimodal optimisation., Evolutionary computation as performed by FUELGEN replaces heuristic search of the kind performed by the FUELCON expert system (CAI 12/4), to solve the same problem. In contrast to the traditional genetic algorithm which makes strong requirements on the representation used and its parameter setting in order to be efficient, the results of recent research results on new, robust genetic algorithms show that representations unsuitable for the traditional genetic algorithm can still be used to good effect with little parameter adjustment. The representation presented here is a simple symbolic one with no linkage attributes, making the genetic algorithm particularly easy to apply to fuel loading problems with differing core structures and assembly inventories. A nonlinear fitness function has been constructed to direct the search efficiently in the presence of the many local optima that result from the constraint on solutions.

In hot water: zooplankton and climate change

An overview is provided of the observed and potential future responses of zooplankton communities to global warming. I begin by describing the importance of zooplankton in ocean ecosystems and the attributes that make them sensitive beacons of climate change. Global warming may have even greater repercussions for marine ecosystems than for terrestrial ecosystems, because temperature influences water column stability, nutrient enrichment, and the degree of new production, and thus the abundance, size composition, diversity, and trophic efficiency of zooplankton. Pertinent descriptions of physical changes in the ocean in response to climate change are given as a prelude to a detailed discussion of observed impacts of global warming on zooplankton. These manifest as changes in the distribution of individual species and assemblages, in the timing of important life-cycle events, and in abundance and community structure. The most illustrative case studies, where climate has had an obvious, tangible impact on zooplankton and substantial ecosystem consequences, are presented. Changes in the distribution and phenology of zooplankton are faster and greater than those observed for terrestrial groups. Relevant projected changes in ocean conditions are then presented, followed by an exploration of potential future changes in zooplankton communities from the perspective of different modelling approaches. Researchers have used a range of modelling approaches on individual species and functional groups forced by output from climate models under future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. I conclude by suggesting some potential future directions in climate change research for zooplankton, viz. the use of richer zooplankton functional groups in ecosystem models; greater research effort in tropical systems; investigating climate change in conjunction with other human impacts; and a global zooplankton observing system.

Controls on the contemporary distribution of lake thecamoebians (testate amoebae) in the Greater Toronto Area and their potential as water quality indicators.

Thecamoebians were examined from 71 surface sediment samples collected from 21 lakes and ponds in the Greater Toronto Area to (1) elucidate the controls on faunal distribution in modern lake environments; and (2) to consider the utility of thecamoebians in quantitative studies of water quality change. This area was chosen because it includes a high density of kettle and other lakes which are threatened by urban development and where water quality has deteriorated locally as a result of contaminant inputs, particularly nutrients. Fifty-eight samples yielded statistically significant thecamoebian populations. The most diverse faunas (highest Shannon Diversity Index values) were recorded in lakes beyond the limits of urban development, although the faunas of all lakes showed signs of sub-optimal conditions. The assemblages were divided into five clusters using Q-mode cluster analysis, supported by Detrended Correspondence Analysis. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) was used to examine species-environment relationships and to explain the observed clusterings. Twenty-four measured environmental variables were considered, including water property attributes (e.g., pH, conductivity, dissolved oxygen), substrate characteristics, sediment-based phosphorus (Olsen P) and 11 environmentally available metals. The thecamoebian assemblages showed a strong association with phosphorus, reflecting the eutrophic status of many of the lakes, and locally to elevated conductivity measurements, which appear to reflect road salt inputs associated with winter de-icing operations. Substrate characteristics, total organic carbon and metal contaminants (particularly Cu and Mg) also influenced the faunas of some samples. A series of partial CCAs show that of the measured variables, sedimentary phosphorus has the largest influence on assemblage distribution, explaining 6.98% (P < 0.002) of the total variance. A transfer function was developed for sedimentary phosphorus (Olsen P) using 58 samples from 15 of the studied lakes. The best performing model was based on weighted averaging with inverse deshrinking (WA Inv, r jack 2= 0.33, RMSEP = 102.65 ppm). This model was applied to a small modern thecamoebian dataset from a eutrophic lake in northern Ontario to predict phosphorus and performed satisfactorily. This preliminary study confirms that thecamoebians have considerable potential as quantitative water quality indicators in urbanising regions, particularly in areas influenced by nutrient inputs and road salts.

Role of Predalors, Habitat Attributes, and Spatial Autocorrelation on the Distribution of Eggs in the Northern Spectacled Salamander (Salamandrina perspicillata)

We predicted that the probability of egg occurrence of salamander Salamandrina perspicillata depended on stream features and predation by native crayfish Austropotamobius fulcisianus and the introduced trout Salmo trutta. We assessed the presence of S. perspicillata at 54 sites within a natural reserve of southern Tuscany, Italy. Generalized linear models with binomial errors were constructed using egg presence/absence and altitude, stream mean size and slope, electrical conductivity, water pH and temperature, and a predation factor, defined according to the presence/absence of crayfish and trout. Some competing models also included an autocovariate term, which estimated how much the response variable at any one sampling point reflected response values at surrounding points. The resulting models were compared using Akaike's information criterion. Model selection led to a subset of 14 models with Delta AIC(c) <7 (i.e., models ranging from substantial support to considerably less support), and all but one of these included an effect of predation. Models with the autocovariate term had considerably more support than those without the term. According to multimodel inference, the presence of trout and crayfish reduced the probability of egg occurrence from a mean level of 0.90 (SE limits: 0.98-0.55) to 0.12 (SE limits: 0.34-0.04). The presence of crayfish alone had no detectable effects (SE limits: 0.86-0.39). The results suggest that introduced trout have a detrimental effect on the reproductive output of S. perspicillata and confirm the fundamental importance of distinguishing the roles of endogenous and exogenous forces that act on population distribution.

The value of water quality improvements in the region Berlin-Brandenburg as a function of distance and state residency

This study uses a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to elicit willingness to pay estimates for changes in the water quality of three rivers. As many regions the metropolitan region Berlin-Brandenburg struggles to achieve the objectives of the Water Framework Directive until 2015. A major problem is the high load of nutrients. As the region is part of two states (Länder) and the river sections are common throughout the whole region we account for the spatial context twofold. Firstly, we incorporate the distance between each respondent and all river stretches in all MNL and RPL models, and, secondly, we consider whether respondents reside in the state of Berlin or Brandenburg. The compensating variation (CV) calculated for various scenarios shows that overall people would significantly benefit from improved water quality. The CV measures, however, also reveal that not considering the spatial context would result in severely biased welfare measures. While the distance decay effect lowers CV, state residency is connected to the frequency of status quo choices and not accounting for residency would underestimate possible welfare gains in one state. Another finding is that the extent of the market varies with respect to attributes (river stretches) and attribute levels (water quality levels).

Delineation of within-site terroir effects using soil and vine water measurement. Investigation of Cabernet Franc

. The influence of vine water status was studied in commercial vineyard blocks of Vilis vinifera L. cv. Cabernet Franc in Niagara Peninsula, Ontario from 2005 to 2007. Vine performance, fruit composition and vine size of non-irrigated grapevines were compared within ten vineyard blocks containing different soil and vine water status. Results showed that within each vineyard block water status zones could be identified on GIS-generated maps using leaf water potential and soil moisture measurements. Some yield and fruit composition variables correlated with the intensity of vine water status. Chemical and descriptive sensory analysis was performed on nine (2005) and eight (2006) pairs of experimental wines to illustrate differences between wines made from high and low water status winegrapes at each vineyard block. Twelve trained judges evaluated six aroma and flavor (red fruit, black cherry, black current, black pepper, bell pepper, and green bean), thr~e mouthfeel (astringency, bitterness and acidity) sensory attributes as well as color intensity. Each pair of high and low water status wine was compared using t-test. In 2005, low water status (L WS) wines from Buis, Harbour Estate, Henry of Pelham (HOP), and Vieni had higher color intensity; those form Chateau des Charmes (CDC) had high black cherry flavor; those at RiefEstates were high in red fruit flavor and at those from George site was high in red fruit aroma. In 2006, low water status (L WS) wines from George, Cave Spring and Morrison sites were high in color intensity. L WS wines from CDC, George and Morrison were more intense in black cherry aroma; LWS wines from Hernder site were high in red fruit aroma and flavor. No significant differences were found from one year to the next between the wines produced from the same vineyard, indicating that the attributes of these wines were maintained almost constant despite markedly different conditions in 2005 and 2006 vintages. Partial ii Least Square (PLS) analysis showed that leaf \}' was associated with red fruit aroma and flavor, berry and wine color intensity, total phenols, Brix and anthocyanins while soil moisture was explained with acidity, green bean aroma and flavor as well as bell pepper aroma and flavor. In another study chemical and descriptive sensory analysis was conducted on nine (2005) and eight (2006) medium water status (MWS) experimental wines to illustrate differences that might support the sub-appellation system in Niagara. The judges evaluated the same aroma, flavor, and mouthfeel sensory attributes as well as color intensity. Data were analyzed using analysis of variance (ANOVA), principal component analysis (PCA) and discriminate analysis (DA). ANOV A of sensory data showed regional differences for all sensory attributes. In 2005, wines from CDC, HOP, and Hemder sites showed highest. r ed fruit aroma and flavor. Lakeshore and Niagara River sites (Harbour, Reif, George, and Buis) wines showed higher bell pepper and green bean aroma and flavor due to proximity to the large bodies of water and less heat unit accumulation. In 2006, all sensory attributes except black pepper aroma were different. PCA revealed that wines from HOP and CDC sites were higher in red fruit, black currant and black cherry aroma and flavor as well as black pepper flavor, while wines from Hemder, Morrison and George sites were high in green bean aroma and flavor. ANOV A of chemical data in 2005 indicated that hue, color intensity, and titratable acidity (TA) were different across the sites, while in 2006, hue, color intensity and ethanol were different across the sites. These data indicate that there is the likelihood of substantial chemical and sensory differences between clusters of sub-appellations within the Niagara Peninsula iii

Delineation of within-site terroir effects using soil and vine water measurements in Riesling vineyards within the Niagara Peninsula

The major focus of this dissertation was to explain terroir effects that impact wine varietal character and to elucidate potential determinants of terroir by testing vine water status (VWS) as the major factor of the terroir effect. It was hypothesized that consistent water status zones could be identified within vineyard sites, and, that differences in vine performance, fruit composition and wine sensory attributes could be related to VWS. To test this hypothesis, ten commercial Riesling vineyards representative of each Vintners Quality Alliance sub-appellation were selected. Vineyards were delineated using global positioning systems and 75 to 80 sentinel vines per vineyard were geo-referenced for data collection. During the 2005 to 2007 growing seasons, VWS measurements [midday leaf water potential ('l')] were collected from a subset of these sentinel vines. Data were collected on soil texture and composition, soil moisture, vine performance (yield components, vine size) and fruit composition. These variables were mapped using global information system (GIS) software and relationships between them were elucidated. Vines were categorized into "low" and "high" water status regions within each vineyard block and replicate wines were made from each. Many geospatial patterns and relationships were spatially and temporally stable within vineyards. Leaf'l' was temporally stable within vineyards despite different weather conditions during each growing season. Generally, spatial relationships between 'l', soil moisture, vine size, berry weight and yield were stable from year to year. Leaf", impacted fruit composition in several vineyards. Through sorting tasks and multidimensional scaling, wines of similar VWS had similar sensory properties. Descriptive analysis further indicated that VWS impacted wine sensory profiles, with similar attributes being different for wines from different water status zones. Vineyard designation had an effect on wine profiles, with certain sensory and chemical attributes being associated from different subappellations. However, wines were generally grouped in terms of their regional designation ('Lakeshore', 'Bench', 'Plains') within the Niagara Peninsula. Through multivariate analyses, specific sensory attributes, viticulture and chemical variables were associated with wines of different VWS. Vine water status was a major contributor to the terroir effect, as it had a major impact on vine size, berry weight and wine sensory characteristics.

The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

Application of mid-infrared spectroscopy to the prediction of maturity and sensory texture attributes of cheddar cheese

The objective of this study was to determine the potential of mid-infrared spectroscopy in conjunction with partial least squares (PLS) regression to predict various quality parameters in cheddar cheese. Cheddar cheeses (n = 24) were manufactured and stored at 8 degrees C for 12 mo. Mid-infrared spectra (640 to 4000/cm) were recorded after 4, 6, 9, and 12 mo storage. At 4, 6, and 9 mo, the water-soluble nitrogen (WSN) content of the samples was determined and the samples were also evaluated for 11 sensory texture attributes using descriptive sensory analysis. The mid-infrared spectra were subjected to a number of pretreatments, and predictive models were developed for all parameters. Age was predicted using scatter-corrected, 1st derivative spectra with a root mean square error of cross-validation (RMSECV) of 1 mo, while WSN was predicted using 1st derivative spectra (RMSECV = 2.6%). The sensory texture attributes most successfully predicted were rubbery, crumbly, chewy, and massforming. These attributes were modeled using 2nd derivative spectra and had, corresponding RMSECV values in the range of 2.5 to 4.2 on a scale of 0 to 100. It was concluded that mid-infrared spectroscopy has the potential to predict age, WSN, and several sensory texture attributes of cheddar cheese..

Towards an improved and more flexible representation of water stress in coupled photosynthesis–stomatal conductance models

Coupled photosynthesis–stomatal conductance (A–gs) models are commonly used in ecosystem models to represent the exchange rate of CO2 and H2O between vegetation and the atmosphere. The ways these models account for water stress differ greatly among modelling schemes. This study provides insight into the impact of contrasting model configurations of water stress on the simulated leaf-level values of net photosynthesis (A), stomatal conductance (gs), the functional relationship among them and their ratio, the intrinsic water use efficiency (A/gs), as soil dries. A simple, yet versatile, normalized soil moisture dependent function was used to account for the effects of water stress on gs, on mesophyll conductance (gm) and on the biochemical capacity. Model output was compared to leaf-level values obtained from the literature. The sensitivity analyses emphasized the necessity to combine both stomatal and non-stomatal limitations of A in coupled A–gs models to accurately capture the observed functional relationships A vs. gs and A/gsvs. gs in response to drought. Accounting for water stress in coupled A–gs models by imposing either stomatal or biochemical limitations of A, as commonly practiced in most ecosystem models, failed to reproduce the observed functional relationship between key leaf gas exchange attributes. A quantitative limitation analysis revealed that the general pattern of C3 photosynthetic response to water stress may be well represented in coupled A–gs models by imposing the highest limitation strength to gm, then to gs and finally to the biochemical capacity.

Space dependency of chemical attributes in an area with sugarcane plantation in Pereira Barreto, SP

The behavior of the chemical attributes is directly influenced by superficial flow and water movement inside the soil. This work aimed to study the space dependency of chemical attributes in an area with sugarcane plantation in Pereira Barreto, SP. An area of 530.67 hectares was mapped using an equipment of Global Positioning System and obtaining a Digital Elevation Model. A set of 134 soil samples were collected every seven hectares in the depths of 0-0.25 m and 0.80-1.00 m. The pH, organic matter (OM), Ca, Mg, K, BS, CEC and base saturation (BS) were analyzed. All the chemical attributes presented similar behavior in the superficial and subsuperficial layer of the soil, which provided better visualization and definition of the homogeneous tillage zones.

GPS receivers for georeferencing of spatial variability of soil attributes

A caracterização da variabilidade espacial dos atributos do solo é indispensável para subsidiar práticas agrícolas de maneira sustentável. A utilização da geoestatística para caracterizar a variabilidade espacial desses atributos, como a resistência mecânica do solo à penetração (RP) e a umidade gravimétrica do solo (UG), é, hoje, prática usual na agricultura de precisão. O resultado da análise geoestatística é dependente da densidade amostral e de outros fatores, como o método de georreferencimento utilizado. Desta forma, o presente trabalho teve como objetivo comparar dois métodos de georreferenciamento para a caracterização da variabilidade espacial da RP e da UG, bem como a correlação espacial dessas variáveis. Foi implantada uma malha amostral de 60 pontos, espaçados em 20 m. Para as medições da RP, utilizou-se de penetrógrafo eletrônico e, para a determinação da UG, utilizou-se de trado holandês (profundidade de 0,0-0,1 m). As amostras foram georreferenciadas, utilizando-se do método de Posicionamento por Ponto Simples (PPS), com de (retirar) receptor GPS de navegação, e Posicionamento Relativo Semicinemático, com receptor GPS geodésico L1. Os resultados indicaram que o georreferenciamento realizado pelo PPS não interferiu na caracterização da variabilidade espacial da RP e da UG, assim como na estrutura espacial da relação dos atributos.

Chemical and physical attributes of two substratum for eucalypt seedling production

This work evaluated the viability of one commercial substrate with pinus bark, vermiculite and 30% of coconut fiber for Eucalyptus grandis seedlings production under different water management: 6, 8, 10, 12 e 14 mm day(-1). In relation to the substrates, it was evaluated, before and after the seedlings production, the total content of carbon, nitrogen and organic substances, pH and EC of the extract, the content of macronutrients (P, K, Ca, S, Mg) and macronutrients (B, Fe, Mn, Cu, Zn), as well as total porosity, density and water retention. It was evaluated the macro and mcronutrients accumulation in the roots and in the aerial part of the seedlings, 105 days after sowing. It was concluded that the substrates presented some distinct properties of those cited as ideal for production in containers with irrigation and fertilization. At the end of the production process, both substrates registered nutrient content little influenced by water management what would guarantee the initial development of the plants in the field.

The water factor in the protein-folding problem

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)