Prediction Of Hydrological Models’ Uncertainty By A Committee Of Machine Learning-Models

This study presents an approach to combine uncertainties of the hydrological model outputs predicted from a number of machine learning models. The machine learning based uncertainty prediction approach is very useful for estimation of hydrological models' uncertainty in particular hydro-metrological situation in real-time application [1]. In this approach the hydrological model realizations from Monte Carlo simulations are used to build different machine learning uncertainty models to predict uncertainty (quantiles of pdf) of the a deterministic output from hydrological model . Uncertainty models are trained using antecedent precipitation and streamflows as inputs. The trained models are then employed to predict the model output uncertainty which is specific for the new input data. We used three machine learning models namely artificial neural networks, model tree, locally weighted regression to predict output uncertainties. These three models produce similar verification results, which can be improved by merging their outputs dynamically. We propose an approach to form a committee of the three models to combine their outputs. The approach is applied to estimate uncertainty of streamflows simulation from a conceptual hydrological model in the Brue catchment in UK and the Bagmati catchment in Nepal. The verification results show that merged output is better than an individual model output. [1] D. L. Shrestha, N. Kayastha, and D. P. Solomatine, and R. Price. Encapsulation of parameteric uncertainty statistics by various predictive machine learning models: MLUE method, Journal of Hydroinformatic, in press, 2013.

Comparison of machine learning approaches and statistical methods for estimation of airborne chemical exposures

Accurate quantitative estimation of exposure using retrospective data has been one of the most challenging tasks in the exposure assessment field. To improve these estimates, some models have been developed using published exposure databases with their corresponding exposure determinants. These models are designed to be applied to reported exposure determinants obtained from study subjects or exposure levels assigned by an industrial hygienist, so quantitative exposure estimates can be obtained. ^ In an effort to improve the prediction accuracy and generalizability of these models, and taking into account that the limitations encountered in previous studies might be due to limitations in the applicability of traditional statistical methods and concepts, the use of computer science- derived data analysis methods, predominantly machine learning approaches, were proposed and explored in this study. ^ The goal of this study was to develop a set of models using decision trees/ensemble and neural networks methods to predict occupational outcomes based on literature-derived databases, and compare, using cross-validation and data splitting techniques, the resulting prediction capacity to that of traditional regression models. Two cases were addressed: the categorical case, where the exposure level was measured as an exposure rating following the American Industrial Hygiene Association guidelines and the continuous case, where the result of the exposure is expressed as a concentration value. Previously developed literature-based exposure databases for 1,1,1 trichloroethane, methylene dichloride and, trichloroethylene were used. ^ When compared to regression estimations, results showed better accuracy of decision trees/ensemble techniques for the categorical case while neural networks were better for estimation of continuous exposure values. Overrepresentation of classes and overfitting were the main causes for poor neural network performance and accuracy. Estimations based on literature-based databases using machine learning techniques might provide an advantage when they are applied to other methodologies that combine `expert inputs' with current exposure measurements, like the Bayesian Decision Analysis tool. The use of machine learning techniques to more accurately estimate exposures from literature-based exposure databases might represent the starting point for the independence from the expert judgment.^

Measuring the influence of Cooperative Learning and Project Based Learning on problem solvin skill.

The aim of this study is to evaluate the effects obtained after applying two active learning methodologies (cooperative learning and project based learning) to the achievement of the competence problem solving. This study was carried out at the Technical University of Madrid, where these methodologies were applied to two Operating Systems courses. The first hypothesis tested was whether the implementation of active learning methodologies favours the achievement of ?problem solving?. The second hypothesis was focused on testing if students with higher rates in problem solving competence obtain better results in their academic performance. The results indicated that active learning methodologies do not produce any significant change in the generic competence ?problem solving? during the period analysed. Concerning this, we consider that students should work with these methodologies for a longer period, besides having a specific training. Nevertheless, a close correlation between problem solving self appraisal and academic performance has been detected.

Survey on integration of Applied Geology and Geomorphology in Civil Engineering curricula in the framework of the European Higher Education Area (EHEA) by using practical trips

The engineer must have sufficient theoretical knowledge to be applied to solve specific problems, with the necessary capacity to simplify these approaches, and taking into account factors such as speed, simplicity, quality and economy. In Geology, its ultimate goal is the exploration of the history of the geological events through observation, deduction, reasoning and, in exceptional cases by the direct underground exploration or experimentation. Experimentation is very limited in Geology. Reproduction laboratory of certain phenomena or geological processes is difficult because both time and space become a large scale. For this reason, some Earth Sciences are in a nearly descriptive stage whereas others closest to the experimental, Geophysics and Geochemistry, have assimilated progress experienced by the physics and chemistry. Thus, Anglo-Saxon countries clearly separate Engineering Geology from Geological Engineering, i.e. Applied Geology to the Geological Engineering concepts. Although there is a big professional overlap, the first one corresponds to scientific approach, while the last one corresponds to a technological one. Applied Geology to Engineering could be defined as the Science and Applied Geology to the design, construction and performance of engineering infrastructures in and field geology discipline. There has been much discussion on the primacy of theory over practice. Today prevails the exaggeration of practice, but you get good workers and routine and mediocre teachers. This idea forgets too that teaching problem is a problem of right balance. The approach of the action lines on the European Higher Education Area (EHEA) framework provides for such balance. Applied Geology subject represents the first real contact with the physical environment with the practice profession and works. Besides, the situation of the topic in the first trace of Study Plans for many students implies the link to other subjects and topics of the career (tunnels, dams, groundwater, roads, etc). This work analyses in depth the justification of such practical trips. It shows the criteria and methods of planning and the result which manifests itself in pupils. Once practical trips experience developed, the objective work tries to know about results and changes on student’s motivation in learning perspective. This is done regardless of the outcome of their knowledge achievements assessed properly and they are not subject to such work. For this objective, it has been designed a survey about their motivation before and after trip. Survey was made by the Unidad Docente de Geología Aplicada of the Departamento de Ingeniería y Morfología del Terreno (Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros de Caminos, Canales y Puertos, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid). It was completely anonymous. Its objective was to collect the opinion of the student as a key agent of learning and teaching of the subject. All the work takes place under new teaching/learning criteria approach at the European framework in Higher Education. The results are exceptionally good with 90% of student’s participation and with very high scores in a number of questions as the itineraries, teachers and visited places (range of 4.5 to 4.2 in a 5 points scale). The majority of students are very satisfied (average of 4.5 in a 5 points scale).

The interaction of economic and pedagogical ideals in the context of workplace learning in Germany: a framework for empirical research – inspired by business ethics

As an effect of marketisation, the importance of workplace learning in Germany has increased. The article follows up on the long-standing discourse around the question of how economic and pedagogical ideals interact in this context. In order to develop a theoretical framework for empirical research, three major positions of the discipline of business ethics are introduced. Business ethics in more abstract ways deals with the very same question, namely how do ideas such as profit orientation interact with other norms and values? The new perspectives show that the discourse has been hitherto based on a specific understanding of economy. In order to derive an empirical answer to the research question, the question is re-formulated as follows: Which values are inherent in the decisions taken? Consequently, it suggests using the concept of ‘rationalities of justification’ for empirical research. The article shows how this concept can be applied by conducting a test run. (DIPF/Orig.)

A PHENOMENOLOGY OF MIMETIC LEARNING AND MULTIMODAL COGNITION: INTEGRATING EXPERIENTIAL KNOWLEDGE INTO PROGRAMS IN RHETORIC, COMPOSITION, AND TECHNICAL COMMUNICATION

My dissertation emphasizes a cognitive account of multimodality that explicitly integrates experiential knowledge work into the rhetorical pedagogy that informs so many composition and technical communication programs. In these disciplines, multimodality is widely conceived in terms of what Gunther Kress calls “socialsemiotic” modes of communication shaped primarily by culture. In the cognitive and neurolinguistic theories of Vittorio Gallese and George Lakoff, however, multimodality is described as a key characteristic of our bodies’ sensory-motor systems which link perception to action and action to meaning, grounding all communicative acts in knowledge shaped through body-engaged experience. I argue that this “situated” account of cognition – which closely approximates Maurice Merleau-Ponty’s phenomenology of perception, a major framework for my study – has pedagogical precedence in the mimetic pedagogy that informed ancient Sophistic rhetorical training, and I reveal that training’s multimodal dimensions through a phenomenological exegesis of the concept mimesis. Plato’s denigration of the mimetic tradition and his elevation of conceptual contemplation through reason, out of which developed the classic Cartesian separation of mind from body, resulted in a general degradation of experiential knowledge in Western education. But with the recent introduction into college classrooms of digital technologies and multimedia communication tools, renewed emphasis is being placed on the “hands-on” nature of inventive and productive praxis, necessitating a revision of methods of instruction and assessment that have traditionally privileged the acquisition of conceptual over experiential knowledge. The model of multimodality I construct from Merleau-Ponty’s phenomenology, ancient Sophistic rhetorical pedagogy, and current neuroscientific accounts of situated cognition insists on recognizing the significant role knowledges we acquire experientially play in our reading and writing, speaking and listening, discerning and designing practices.

Development and characterization of deep learning techniques for neuroimaging data

Deep learning methods are extremely promising machine learning tools to analyze neuroimaging data. However, their potential use in clinical settings is limited because of the existing challenges of applying these methods to neuroimaging data. In this study, first a data leakage type caused by slice-level data split that is introduced during training and validation of a 2D CNN is surveyed and a quantitative assessment of the model’s performance overestimation is presented. Second, an interpretable, leakage-fee deep learning software written in a python language with a wide range of options has been developed to conduct both classification and regression analysis. The software was applied to the study of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in patients with small vessel disease (SVD) using multi-parametric MRI data where the cognitive performance of 58 patients measured by five neuropsychological tests is predicted using a multi-input CNN model taking brain image and demographic data. Each of the cognitive test scores was predicted using different MRI-derived features. As MCI due to SVD has been hypothesized to be the effect of white matter damage, DTI-derived features MD and FA produced the best prediction outcome of the TMT-A score which is consistent with the existing literature. In a second study, an interpretable deep learning system aimed at 1) classifying Alzheimer disease and healthy subjects 2) examining the neural correlates of the disease that causes a cognitive decline in AD patients using CNN visualization tools and 3) highlighting the potential of interpretability techniques to capture a biased deep learning model is developed. Structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data of 200 subjects was used by the proposed CNN model which was trained using a transfer learning-based approach producing a balanced accuracy of 71.6%. Brain regions in the frontal and parietal lobe showing the cerebral cortex atrophy were highlighted by the visualization tools.

Sensitivity and specificity of machine learning classifiers for glaucoma diagnosis using Spectral Domain OCT and standard automated perimetry

PURPOSE: To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of machine learning classifiers (MLCs) for glaucoma diagnosis using Spectral Domain OCT (SD-OCT) and standard automated perimetry (SAP). METHODS: Observational cross-sectional study. Sixty two glaucoma patients and 48 healthy individuals were included. All patients underwent a complete ophthalmologic examination, achromatic standard automated perimetry (SAP) and retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) imaging with SD-OCT (Cirrus HD-OCT; Carl Zeiss Meditec Inc., Dublin, California). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were obtained for all SD-OCT parameters and global indices of SAP. Subsequently, the following MLCs were tested using parameters from the SD-OCT and SAP: Bagging (BAG), Naive-Bayes (NB), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Radial Basis Function (RBF), Random Forest (RAN), Ensemble Selection (ENS), Classification Tree (CTREE), Ada Boost M1(ADA),Support Vector Machine Linear (SVML) and Support Vector Machine Gaussian (SVMG). Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (aROC) obtained for isolated SAP and OCT parameters were compared with MLCs using OCT+SAP data. RESULTS: Combining OCT and SAP data, MLCs' aROCs varied from 0.777(CTREE) to 0.946 (RAN).The best OCT+SAP aROC obtained with RAN (0.946) was significantly larger the best single OCT parameter (p<0.05), but was not significantly different from the aROC obtained with the best single SAP parameter (p=0.19). CONCLUSION: Machine learning classifiers trained on OCT and SAP data can successfully discriminate between healthy and glaucomatous eyes. The combination of OCT and SAP measurements improved the diagnostic accuracy compared with OCT data alone.

Extinction of affective learning: No evidence for dual process accounts of human learning

The acquisition and extinction of affective valence to neutral geometrical shape conditional stimuli was investigated in three experiments. Experiment 1 employed a differential conditioning procedure with aversive shock USs. Differential electrodermal responding was evident during acquisition and lost during extinction. As indexed by verbal ratings, the CS1 acquired negative valence during acquisition,which was reduced after extinction. Affective priming, a reaction time based demand free measure of stimulus valence, failed to provide evidence for affective learning. Experiment 2 employed pictures of happy and angry faces as USs.Valence ratings after acquisitionweremore positive for theCS paired with happy faces (CS-H) and less positive for the CS paired with angry faces (CS-A) than during baseline. Extinction training reduced the extent of acquired valence significantly for both CSs, however, ratings of the CS-A remained different from baseline. Affective priming confirmed these results yielding differences between CS-A and CS-H after acquisition for pleasant and unpleasant targets, but for pleasant targets only after extinction. Experiment 3 replicated the design of Experiment 2, but presented the US pictures backwardly masked. Neither rating nor affective priming measures yielded any evidence for affective learning. The present results confirm across two different experimental procedures that, contrary to predictions from dual process accounts of human learning, affective learning is subject to extinction.

Effect of instructed extinction on verbal and autonomic indices of Pavlovian learning with fear-relevant and fear-irrelevant conditional stimuli

We investigated the effects of conditional stimulus fear-relevance and of instructed extinction on human Pavlovian conditioning as indexed by electrodermal responses and verbal ratings of conditional stimulus unpleasantness. Half of the participants (n = 64) were trained with pictures of snakes and spiders (fear-relevant) as conditional stimuli, whereas the others were trained with pictures of flowers and mushrooms (fear-irrelevant) in a differential aversive Pavlovian conditioning procedure. Half of the participants in each group were instructed after the completion of acquisition that no more unconditional stimuli were to be presented. Extinction of differential electrodermal responses required more trials after training with fear-relevant pictures. Moreover, there was some evidence that verbal instructions did not affect extinction of second interval electrodermal responses to fear-relevant pictures. However, neither fear-relevance nor instructions affected the changes in rated conditional stimulus pleasantness. This dissociation across measures is interpreted as reflecting renewal of Pavlovian learning.