Earned value management insights using inferential statistics

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to summarise a successfully defended doctoral thesis. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a summary of the scope, and main issues raised in the thesis so that readers undertaking studies in the same or connected areas may be aware of current contributions to the topic. The secondary aims are to frame the completed thesis in the context of doctoral-level research in project management as well as offer ideas for further investigation which would serve to extend scientific knowledge on the topic. Design/methodology/approach – Research reported in this paper is based on a quantitative study using inferential statistics aimed at better understanding the actual and potential usage of earned value management (EVM) as applied to external projects under contract. Theories uncovered during the literature review were hypothesized and tested using experiential data collected from 145 EVM practitioners with direct experience on one or more external projects under contract that applied the methodology. Findings – The results of this research suggest that EVM is an effective project management methodology. The principles of EVM were shown to be significant positive predictors of project success on contracted efforts and to be a relatively greater positive predictor of project success when using fixed-price versus cost-plus (CP) type contracts. Moreover, EVM's work-breakdown structure (WBS) utility was shown to positively contribute to the formation of project contracts. The contribution was not significantly different between fixed-price and CP contracted projects, with exceptions in the areas of schedule planning and payment planning. EVM's “S” curve benefited the administration of project contracts. The contribution of the S-curve was not significantly different between fixed-price and CP contracted projects. Furthermore, EVM metrics were shown to also be important contributors to the administration of project contracts. The relative contribution of EVM metrics to projects under fixed-price versus CP contracts was not significantly different, with one exception in the area of evaluating and processing payment requests. Practical implications – These results have important implications for project practitioners, EVM advocates, as well as corporate and governmental policy makers. EVM should be considered for all projects – not only for its positive contribution to project contract development and administration, for its contribution to project success as well, regardless of contract type. Contract type should not be the sole determining factor in the decision whether or not to use EVM. More particularly, the more fixed the contracted project cost, the more the principles of EVM explain the success of the project. The use of EVM mechanics should also be used in all projects regardless of contract type. Payment planning using a WBS should be emphasized in fixed-price contracts using EVM in order to help mitigate performance risk. Schedule planning using a WBS should be emphasized in CP contracts using EVM in order to help mitigate financial risk. Similarly, EVM metrics should be emphasized in fixed-price contracts in evaluating and processing payment requests. Originality/value – This paper provides a summary of cutting-edge research work and a link to the published thesis that researchers can use to help them understand how the research methodology was applied as well as how it can be extended.

Effects of Low Dose Irradiation on the K-Value and Hypoxanthine Concentration of Fish Fillets

Fillets of five fish species were irradiated at 0, 1 and 3kGy to investigate whether the K-value test of freshness can be applied to irradiated fish. Following irradiation, the fillets were stored on ice and sampled regularly for K-value analysis. Hypoxanthine (Hx) and total nucleotide content were also determined on fillets of two species. K-values of irradiated fillets were generally lower than those of unirradiated controls. Hypoxanthine levels paralleled the K-value changes. These results indicated that quality standards based on K-values or Hx levels that have been set for unirradiated species cannot be directly applied to fish that has been irradiated. Total nucleotide content did not appear to be affected by irradiation.

Economic Analysis of Sugarcane Farming Systems for Water Quality Improvement in the Great Barrier Reef Catchments.

In this report we analyse the private financial-economic impacts of transitioning to improved sugarcane management in the National Resource Management regions of the Wet Tropics, Burdekin Dry Tropics and Mackay Whitsundays. In order to do so, we: 1) compare farm GMs; 2) present information on capital investment associated with the transition; 3) perform a net present value analysis of the investments and; 4) undertake a risk analysis for cane and legume yields and prices. It must be noted that transaction costs are not captured within this project.

Numerical analysis of the relation between interactions and structure in a molecular fluid

Coarse graining is a popular technique used in physics to speed up the computer simulation of molecular fluids. An essential part of this technique is a method that solves the inverse problem of determining the interaction potential or its parameters from the given structural data. Due to discrepancies between model and reality, the potential is not unique, such that stability of such method and its convergence to a meaningful solution are issues.rnrnIn this work, we investigate empirically whether coarse graining can be improved by applying the theory of inverse problems from applied mathematics. In particular, we use the singular value analysis to reveal the weak interaction parameters, that have a negligible influence on the structure of the fluid and which cause non-uniqueness of the solution. Further, we apply a regularizing Levenberg-Marquardt method, which is stable against the mentioned discrepancies. Then, we compare it to the existing physical methods - the Iterative Boltzmann Inversion and the Inverse Monte Carlo method, which are fast and well adapted to the problem, but sometimes have convergence problems.rnrnFrom analysis of the Iterative Boltzmann Inversion, we elaborate a meaningful approximation of the structure and use it to derive a modification of the Levenberg-Marquardt method. We engage the latter for reconstruction of the interaction parameters from experimental data for liquid argon and nitrogen. We show that the modified method is stable, convergent and fast. Further, the singular value analysis of the structure and its approximation allows to determine the crucial interaction parameters, that is, to simplify the modeling of interactions. Therefore, our results build a rigorous bridge between the inverse problem from physics and the powerful solution tools from mathematics. rn

Value engineering program ; May 1977 progress report.

Mode of access: Internet.

The development and analysis of a field project model curriculum and its impact on achievement and attitude toward science and the environment with at-risk eleventh and twelfth grade students

This study was an evaluation of a Field Project Model Curriculum and its impact on achievement, attitude toward science, attitude toward the environment, self-concept, and academic self-concept with at-risk eleventh and twelfth grade students. One hundred eight students were pretested and posttested on the Piers-Harris Children's Self-Concept Scale, PHCSC (1985); the Self-Concept as a Learner Scale, SCAL (1978); the Marine Science Test, MST (1987); the Science Attitude Inventory, SAI (1970); and the Environmental Attitude Scale, EAS (1972). Using a stratified random design, three groups of students were randomly assigned according to sex and stanine level, to three treatment groups. Group one received the field project method, group two received the field study method, and group three received the field trip method. All three groups followed the marine biology course content as specified by Florida Student Performance Objectives and Frameworks. The intervention occurred for ten months with each group participating in outside-of-classroom activities on a trimonthly basis. Analysis of covariance procedures were used to determine treatment effects. F-ratios, p-levels and t-tests at p $<$.0062 (.05/8) indicated that a significant difference existed among the three treatment groups. Findings indicated that groups one and two were significantly different from group three with group one displaying significantly higher results than group two. There were no significant differences between males and females in performance on the five dependent variables. The tenets underlying environmental education are congruent with the recommendations toward the reform of science education. These include a value analysis approach, inquiry methods, and critical thinking strategies that are applied to environmental issues. ^

Using extreme value theory to value stock market returns

Extreme stock price movements are of great concern to both investors and the entire economy. For investors, a single negative return, or a combination of several smaller returns, can possible wipe out so much capital that the firm or portfolio becomes illiquid or insolvent. If enough investors experience this loss, it could shock the entire economy. An example of such a case is the stock market crash of 1987. Furthermore, there has been a lot of recent interest regarding the increasing volatility of stock prices. ^ This study presents an analysis of extreme stock price movements. The data utilized was the daily returns for the Standard and Poor's 500 index from January 3, 1978 to May 31, 2001. Research questions were analyzed using the statistical models provided by extreme value theory. One of the difficulties in examining stock price data is that there is no consensus regarding the correct shape of the distribution function generating the data. An advantage with extreme value theory is that no detailed knowledge of this distribution function is required to apply the asymptotic theory. We focus on the tail of the distribution. ^ Extreme value theory allows us to estimate a tail index, which we use to derive bounds on the returns for very low probabilities on an excess. Such information is useful in evaluating the volatility of stock prices. There are three possible limit laws for the maximum: Gumbel (thick-tailed), Fréchet (thin-tailed) or Weibull (no tail). Results indicated that extreme returns during the time period studied follow a Fréchet distribution. Thus, this study finds that extreme value analysis is a valuable tool for examining stock price movements and can be more efficient than the usual variance in measuring risk. ^

Menu Analysis: Review and Evaluation

In the article - Menu Analysis: Review and Evaluation - by Lendal H. Kotschevar, Distinguished Professor School of Hospitality Management, Florida International University, Kotschevar’s initial statement reads: “Various methods are used to evaluate menus. Some have quite different approaches and give different information. Even those using quite similar methods vary in the information they give. The author attempts to describe the most frequently used methods and to indicate their value. A correlation calculation is made to see how well certain of these methods agree in the information they give.” There is more than one way to look at the word menu. The culinary selections decided upon by the head chef or owner of a restaurant, which ultimately define the type of restaurant is one way. The physical outline of the food, which a patron actually holds in his or her hand, is another. These descriptions are most common to the word, menu. The author primarily concentrates on the latter description, and uses the act of counting the number of items sold on a menu to measure the popularity of any particular item. This, along with a formula, allows Kotschevar to arrive at a specific value per item. Menu analysis would appear a difficult subject to broach. How does a person approach a menu analysis, how do you qualify and quantify a menu; it seems such a subjective exercise. The author offers methods and outlines on approaching menu analysis from empirical perspectives. “Menus are often examined visually through the evaluation of various factors. It is a subjective method but has the advantage of allowing scrutiny of a wide range of factors which other methods do not,” says Distinguished Professor, Kotschevar. “The method is also highly flexible. Factors can be given a score value and scores summed to give a total for a menu. This allows comparison between menus. If the one making the evaluations knows menu values, it is a good method of judgment,” he further offers. The author wants you to know that assigning values is fundamental to a pragmatic menu analysis; it is how the reviewer keeps score, so to speak. Value merit provides reliable criteria from which to gauge a particular menu item. In the final analysis, menu evaluation provides the mechanism for either keeping or rejecting selected items on a menu. Kotschevar provides at least three different matrix evaluation methods; they are defined as the Miller method, the Smith and Kasavana method, and the Pavesic method. He offers illustrated examples of each via a table format. These are helpful tools since trying to explain the theories behind the tables would be difficult at best. Kotschevar also references examples of analysis methods which aren’t matrix based. The Hayes and Huffman - Goal Value Analysis - is one such method. The author sees no one method better than another, and suggests that combining two or more of the methods to be a benefit.

Usage-Based versus Measure-Based Unit Pricing: Is There a Better Index of Value?

In many product categories, unit prices facilitate price comparisons across brands and package sizes; this enables consumers to identify those products that provide the greatest value. However in other product categories, unit prices may be confusing. This is because there are two types of unit pricing, measure-based and usage-based. Measure-based unit prices are what the name implies; price is expressed in cents or dollars per unit of measure (e.g. ounce). Usage-based unit prices, on the other hand, are expressed in terms of cents or dollars per use (e.g., wash load or serving). The results of this study show that in two different product categories (i.e., laundry detergent and dry breakfast cereal), measure-based unit prices reduced consumers’ ability to identify higher value products, but when a usage-based unit price was provided, their ability to identify product value was increased. When provided with both a measure-based and a usage-based unit price, respondents did not perform as well as when they were provided only a usage-based unit price, additional evidence that the measure-based unit price hindered consumers’ comparisons. Finally, the presence of two potential moderators, education about the meaning of the two measures and having to rank order the options in the choice set in terms of value before choosing, did not eliminate these effects.

Lean project management in large scale industrial project via standardization

Lean project management is the comprehensive adaption of other lean concept like lean construction, lean manufacturing and lean thinking into project management context. Execution of many similar industrial projects creates the idea of lean project management in companies and rapidly growing in industries. This paper offers the standardization method in order to achieve Lean project management in large scale industrial project. Standardization refers to all activity which makes two projects most identical and unify to each other like standardization of design, reducing output variability, value analysis and strategic management. Although standard project may have minor effi ciency decrease, compare to custom built project; but great advantage of standard project like cost saving, time reduction and quality improvement justify standardization methodology. This paper based on empirical experience in industrial project and theoretical analysis of benefi ts of project standardization.

A study on the use of acoustic emission technique as a structural health monitoring tool

As civil infrastructures such as bridges age, there is a concern for safety and a need for cost-effective and reliable monitoring tool. Different diagnostic techniques are available nowadays for structural health monitoring (SHM) of bridges. Acoustic emission is one such technique with potential of predicting failure. The phenomenon of rapid release of energy within a material by crack initiation or growth in form of stress waves is known as acoustic emission (AE). AEtechnique involves recording the stress waves bymeans of sensors and subsequent analysis of the recorded signals,which then convey information about the nature of the source. AE can be used as a local SHM technique to monitor specific regions with visible presence of cracks or crack prone areas such as welded regions and joints with bolted connection or as a global technique to monitor the whole structure. Strength of AE technique lies in its ability to detect active crack activity, thus helping in prioritising maintenance work by helping focus on active cracks rather than dormant cracks. In spite of being a promising tool, some challenges do still exist behind the successful application of AE technique. One is the generation of large amount of data during the testing; hence an effective data analysis and management is necessary, especially for long term monitoring uses. Complications also arise as a number of spurious sources can giveAEsignals, therefore, different source discrimination strategies are necessary to identify genuine signals from spurious ones. Another major challenge is the quantification of damage level by appropriate analysis of data. Intensity analysis using severity and historic indices as well as b-value analysis are some important methods and will be discussed and applied for analysis of laboratory experimental data in this paper.

Damage quantification techniques in acoustic emission monitoring

Acoustic emission (AE) analysis is one of the several diagnostic techniques available nowadays for structural health monitoring (SHM) of engineering structures. Some of its advantages over other techniques include high sensitivity to crack growth and capability of monitoring a structure in real time. The phenomenon of rapid release of energy within a material by crack initiation or growth in form of stress waves is known as acoustic emission (AE). In AE technique, these stress waves are recorded by means of suitable sensors placed on the surface of a structure. Recorded signals are subsequently analysed to gather information about the nature of the source. By enabling early detection of crack growth, AE technique helps in planning timely retrofitting or other maintenance jobs or even replacement of the structure if required. In spite of being a promising tool, some challenges do still exist behind the successful application of AE technique. Large amount of data is generated during AE testing, hence effective data analysis is necessary, especially for long term monitoring uses. Appropriate analysis of AE data for quantification of damage level is an area that has received considerable attention. Various approaches available for damage quantification for severity assessment are discussed in this paper, with special focus on civil infrastructure such as bridges. One method called improved b-value analysis is used to analyse data collected from laboratory testing.

Idealised simulation of downburst winds

Convectively driven downburst winds pose a threat to structures and communities in many regions of Australia not subject to tropical cyclones. Extreme value analysis shows that for return periods of interest to engineering design these events produce higher gust wind speeds than synoptic scale windstorms. Despite this, comparatively little is known of the near ground wind structure of these potentially hazardous windstorms. With this in mind, a series of idealised three-dimensional numerical simulations were undertaken to investigate convective storm wind fields. A dry, non-hydrostatic, sub-cloud model with parameterisation of the microphysics was used. Simulations were run with a uniform 20 m horizontal grid resolution and a variable vertical resolution increasing from 1 m. A systematic grid resolution study showed further refinement did not alter the morphological structure of the outflow. Simulations were performed for stationary downbursts in a quiescent air field, stationary downbursts embedded within environmental boundary layer winds, and also translating downbursts embedded within environmental boundary layer winds.

Variation in rotary veneer recovery from australian plantation Eucalyptus globulus and Eucalyptus nitens

The processing of Australian plantation-grown Eucalyptus globulus and E. nitens into rotary veneer was shown to produce acceptable recoveries. Three plantation sites for each species were sampled. Silvicultural treatments (thinning and pruning) and growing environments varied between sites. Graded veneer recoveries were dominated by D-grade veneer across all six sites. Variation between the E. nitens sites was evident, with recoveries differing between sites reflecting silvicultural treatments. However, only minimal variation in recovery was shown between the E. globulus sites. The presence of similar levels of defects across all E. globulus sites indicates that the intensive silvicultural management at one site studied was not effective in the production of clear wood, and may possibly have adversely affected grade recovery. Veneer value analysis demonstrated only minimal differences between E. globulus sites. More variation was observed in the E. nitens value analysis; however, intensive silvicultural management implemented did not necessarily result in higher veneer value.

Modeling server-unreliability in closed queuing-networks

A method is presented to model server unreliability in closed queuing networks. Breakdowns and repairs of servers, assumed to be time-dependent, are modeled using virtual customers and virtual servers in the system. The problem is thus converted into a closed queue with all reliable servers and preemptive resume priority centers. Several recent preemptive priority approximations and an approximation of the one proposed are used in the analysis. This method has approximately the same computational requirements as that of mean-value analysis for a network of identical dimensions and is therefore very efficient