Modelización de servicios ecosistémicos en una cuenca hidrológica del área mediterránea = Modeling ecosystem services in a mediterranean area river basin

La modelización es un proceso por el que se obtienen modelos de los procesos del ´mundo real´ mediante la utilización de simplificaciones. Sin embargo, las estimaciones obtenidas con el modelo llevan implícitas incertidumbre que se debe evaluar. Mediante un análisis de sensibilidad se puede mejorar la confianza en los resultados, sin embargo, este paso a veces no se realiza debido básicamente al trabajo que lleva consigo este tipo de análisis. Además, al crear un modelo, hay que mantener un equilibrio entre la obtención de resultados lo más exactos posible mediante un modelo lo más sencillo posible. Por ello, una vez creado un modelo, es imprescindible comprobar si es necesario o no incluir más procesos que en un principio no se habían incluido. Los servicios ecosistémicos son los procesos mediante los cuales los ecosistemas mantienen y satisfacen el bienestar humano. La importancia que los servicios ecosistémicos y sus beneficios asociados tienen, junto con la necesidad de realizar una buena gestión de los mismos, han estimulado la aparición de modelos y herramientas para cuantificarlos. InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradoffs) es una de estas herramientas específicas para calcular servicios eco-sistémicos, desarrollada por Natural Capital Project (Universidad de Stanford, EEUU). Como resultado del creciente interés en calcular los servicios eco-sistémicos, se prevé un incremento en la aplicación del InVEST. La investigación desarrollada en esta Tesis pretende ayudar en esas otras importantes fases necesarias después de la creación de un modelo, abarcando los dos siguientes trabajos. El primero es la aplicación de un análisis de sensibilidad al modelo en una cuenca concreta mediante la metodología más adecuada. El segundo es relativo a los procesos dentro de la corriente fluvial que actualmente no se incluyen en el modelo mediante la creación y aplicación de una metodología que estudiara el papel que juegan estos procesos en el modelo InVEST de retención de nutrientes en el área de estudio. Los resultados de esta Tesis contribuirán a comprender la incertidumbre involucrada en el proceso de modelado. También pondrá de manifiesto la necesidad de comprobar el comportamiento de un modelo antes de utilizarlo y en el momento de interpretar los resultados obtenidos. El trabajo en esta Tesis contribuirá a mejorar la plataforma InVEST, que es una herramienta importante en el ámbito de los servicios de los ecosistemas. Dicho trabajo beneficiará a los futuros usuarios de la herramienta, ya sean investigadores (en investigaciones futuras), o técnicos (en futuros trabajos de toma de decisiones o gestión ecosistemas). ABSTRACT Modeling is the process to idealize real-world situations through simplifications in order to obtain a model. However, model estimations lead to uncertainties that have to be evaluated formally. The role of the sensitivity analysis (SA) is to assign model output uncertainty based on the inputs and can increase confidence in model, however, it is often omitted in modelling, usually as a result of the growing effort it involves. In addition, the balance between accuracy and simplicity is not easy to assess. For this reason, when a model is developed, it is necessary to test it in order to understand its behavior and to include, if necessary, more complexity to get a better response. Ecosystem services are the conditions and processes through which natural ecosystems, and their constituent species, sustain and fulfill human life. The relevance of ecosystem services and the need to better manage them and their associated benefits have stimulated the emergence of models and tools to measure them. InVEST, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradoffs, is one of these ecosystem services-specific tools developed by the Natural Capital Project (Stanford University, USA). As a result of the growing interest in measuring ecosystem services, the use of InVEST is anticipated to grow exponentially in the coming years. However, apart from model development, making a model involves other crucial stages such as its evaluation and application in order to validate estimations. The work developed in this thesis tries to help in this relevant and imperative phase of the modeling process, and does so in two different ways. The first one is to conduct a sensitivity analysis of the model, which consists in choosing and applying a methodology in an area and analyzing the results obtained. The second is related to the in-stream processes that are not modeled in the current model, and consists in creating and applying a methodology for testing the streams role in the InVEST nutrient retention model in a case study, analyzing the results obtained. The results of this Thesis will contribute to the understanding of the uncertainties involved in the modeling process. It will also illustrate the need to check the behavior of every model developed before putting them in production and illustrate the importance of understanding their behavior in terms of correctly interpreting the results obtained in light of uncertainty. The work in this thesis will contribute to improve the InVEST platform, which is an important tool in the field of ecosystem services. Such work will benefit future users, whether they are researchers (in their future research), or technicians (in their future work in ecosystem conservation or management decisions).

The capacities of institutions for the integration of ecosystem services in coastal strategic planning: The case of Jiaozhou Bay

This paper explains how the practice of integrating ecosystem-service thinking (i.e., ecological benefits for human beings) and institutions (i.e., organisations, policy rules) is essential for coastal spatial planning. Adopting an integrated perspective on ecosystem services (ESs) both helps understand a wide range of possible services and, at the same time, attune institution to local resource patterns. The objective of this paper is to identify the extent to which ESs are integrated in a specific coastal strategic planning case. A subsequent objective is to understand whether institutions are capable of managing ESs in terms of uncovering institutional strengths and weaknesses that may exist in taking ESs into account in existing institutional practices. These two questions are addressed through the application of a content analysis method and a multi-level analysis framework on formal institutions. Jiaozhou Bay in China is used as an illustrative case. The results show that some ESs have been implicitly acknowledged, but by no means the whole range. This partial ES implementation could result from any of four institutional weaknesses in the strategic plans of Jiaozhou Bay, namely a dominant market oriented interest, fragmented institutional structures for managing ESs, limited ES assessment, and a lack of integrated reflection of the social value of ESs in decision-making. Finally, generalizations of multi-level institutional settings on ES integration, such as an inter-organisational fragmentation and a limited use of ES assessment in operation, are made together with other international case studies. Meanwhile, the comparison highlights the influences of extensive market-oriented incentives and governments' exclusive responsibilities on ES governance in the Chinese context.

Stakeholder perceptions of ecosystem services of the Wami River and Estuary

Management of riverine and coastal ecosystems warrants enhanced understanding of how different stakeholders perceive and depend upon different kinds of ecosystem services. Employing a mixed methods approach, this study compares and contrasts the use and perceptions of upstream residents, downstream residents, tourism officials, and conservation organizations regarding the value of 30 ecosystem services provided by the Wami River and its estuary in Tanzania, and investigates their perceptions of the main threats to this system. Our findings reveal that all of the stakeholder groups place a high value on the provision of domestic water, habitat for wild plants and animals, tourism, and erosion control, and a relatively low value on the prevention of saltwater intrusion, refuge from predators, spiritual fulfillment, nonrecreational hunting, and the provision of traditional medications and inorganic materials for construction. Differences emerge, however, between the groups in the value assigned to the conservation of riverine and estuarine fauna and the provision of raw materials for building and handicrafts. Declining fish populations and an increasing human population are identified by the residents and conservation employees, respectively, as their prime concerns regarding the future conditions of the Wami River and its estuary. These groups also acknowledge increasing salinity levels and the loss of mangroves as other key concerns. The identification of these mutual interests and shared concerns can help build common ground among stakeholders while the recognition of potential tensions can assist managers in balancing and reconciling the multiple needs and values of these different groups.

The challenges of integrating biodiversity and ecosystem services monitoring and evaluation at a landscape-scale wetland restoration project in the UK

There is an increasing emphasis on the restoration of ecosystem services as well as of biodiversity, especially where restoration projects are planned at a landscape scale. This increase in the diversity of restoration aims has a number of conceptual and practical implications for the way that restoration projects are monitored and evaluated. Landscape-scale projects require monitoring of not only ecosystem services and biodiversity but also of ecosystem processes since these can underpin both. Using the experiences gained at a landscape-scale wetland restoration project in the UK, we discuss a number of issues that need to be considered, including the choice of metrics for monitoring ecosystem services and the difficulties of assessing the interactions between ecosystem processes, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Particular challenges that we identify, using two pilot data sets, include the decoupling of monetary metrics used for monitoring ecosystem services from biophysical change on the ground and the wide range of factors external to a project that influence the monitoring results. We highlight the fact that the wide range of metrics necessary to evaluate the ecosystem service, ecosystem process, and biodiversity outcomes of landscape-scale projects presents a number of practical challenges, including the need for high levels of varied expertise, high costs, incommensurate monitoring outputs, and the need for careful management of monitoring results, especially where they may be used in making decisions about the relative importance of project aims.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services in Europe: the Case of Pest Control by Vertebrates. BioScience.

Global environmental changes threaten ecosystems and cause significant alterations to the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. We provide an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on European diversity of vertebrates and their associated pest control services. We modeled the distributions of the species that provide this service using ensembles of forecasts from bioclimatic envelope models and then used their results to generate maps of potential species richness among vertebrate providers of pest control services. We assessed how potential richness of pest control providers would change according to different climate and greenhouse emissions scenarios. We found that potential richness of pest control providers was likely to face substantial reductions, especially in southern European countries that had economies highly dependent on agricultural yields. In much of central and northern Europe, where countries had their economies less dependent on agriculture, climate change was likely to benefit pest control providers

Évaluation économique des services écosystémiques dans la région de Montréal : analyse spatiale et préférences exprimées

Les services écosystémiques (SE) réfèrent aux bénéfices que produisent et soutiennent la biodiversité et les écosystèmes et qui profitent à l’être humain. Dans beaucoup de cas, ils ne sont pas pris en compte dans le système économique. Cette externalisation des SE engendre des décisions sur l’utilisation du territoire et des ressources naturelles qui ignorent leur contribution à la qualité de vie des communautés. Afin notamment de sensibiliser l’opinion publique à l’importance des SE et de mieux les intégrer dans les processus décisionnels, ont été développées des démarches d’évaluation économique des SE. Dans cette thèse, nous avons cherché à comprendre à la fois comment l’utilisation passée et actuelle des sols dans la région de Montréal affecte la valeur des SE et comment ces aménités naturelles sont perçues et valorisées par la population, dans une perspective d’aménagement futur du territoire. Pour ce faire, nous avons utilisé deux approches : l’analyse spatiale recourant aux systèmes d’information géographique et l’analyse des préférences exprimées par des techniques d’enquête. Pour l’analyse spatiale, nous avons combiné des analyses cartographiques à des valeurs monétaires associées aux SE publiées dans la littérature. Nous avons alors estimé la valeur des écosystèmes d’un territoire par le transfert de bénéfices, de prix de marchés directs et de coûts évités. Cette démarche nous a permis de comprendre la relation entre l’utilisation actuelle du territoire du Grand Montréal écologique et la valeur des services fournis par les écosystèmes, que nous avons estimée à 2,2 milliards de dollars par année. Elle nous a permis aussi de mesurer les effets sur la valeur des SE du changement d’utilisation des sols entre les années 1960 et 2010. Nous avons montré que malgré différentes politiques de contrôle et d’encadrement de l’étalement urbain au cours de cette période, les pertes économiques non marchandes liées aux SE s’élèvent à 236 millions de dollars par année. Pour l’analyse des préférences exprimées, nous avons utlilisé deux méthodes, l’évaluation contingente et le choix multi-attributs, avec l’objectif de mesurer le consentement à payer de répondants pour des variations dans l’aménagement du territoire. Nous avons montré d’une part que les répondants valorisent significativement l’incidence des pratiques agro-environnementales sur la qualité de l’environnement et des paysages en consentant à payer entre 159 et 333 dollars par ménage par année pour une amélioration de la diversité du paysage agricole. D’autre part, leur volonté à payer pour l’amélioration de l’état des milieux humides du Québec est estimée entre 389 et 455 dollars par ménage par année. L’utilisation conjointe des deux méthodes nous a permis d’en comparer les résultats. Nous avons en outre démontré que le choix du format de question de valorisation de l’évaluation contingente affecte la convergence des résultats. Enfin, nous avons proposé des pistes de recherches futures portant sur l’intégration des démarches d’analyse biophysique, économique et politique dans des outils de prise de décision mieux adaptés à la dynamique des écosystèmes, de la biodiversité et des communautés humaines.

Enhancement of buffer strips can improve provision of multiple ecosystem services

Farmland invertebrates play a pivotal role in the provision of ecosystem services, i.e. services that benefit humans. For example, bumblebees, solitary bees and honeybees, are crucial to the pollination of many of the world's crops and wildflowers, with over 70% of the world's major food crops dependent on the pollination services provided by these insects. The larvae of some butterfly species are considered to be pests; however, together with moth and sawfly larvae, they represent a key dietary component for many farmland birds. Spiders and ground beetles predate on crop pests including aphids, whilst soil macrofauna such as earthworms are vital for soil fertility services and nutrient recycling. Despite their importance, population declines of invertebrates have been observed during the last sixty years in the UK and NW Europe. For example, seven UK bumblebee species are in decline, and in the last 20 years, the species Bombus subterraneus (short-haired bumblebee) has become extinct, whilst there was a 54% decline in honeybee colony numbers in England from 1985 to 2005. Comparable trends have been documented for butterflies with a 23% decline in UK farmland species such as Anthocharis cardamines (orange tip) between 1990 and 2007. These declines have been widely attributed to the modern intensive arable management practices that have been developed to maximise crop yield. For example, loss and fragmentation of foraging and nesting habitats, including species-rich meadows and hedgerows, have been implicated in the decline of bees and butterflies. Increased use of herbicides and fertilisers has caused detrimental effects on many plant species with negative consequences for predatory invertebrates such as spiders and beetles which rely on plants for food and shelter.

Opportunities and limits of the ecosystem services framework in capturing the cultural dimension of sustainable regional and landscape development in protected areas

With regard to protected areas, the concepts of ecosystem services and the cultural dimension of sustainable development (SD) are increasingly under debate. This contribution analyses the role of cultural aspects within the ecosystem services framework using the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment classification as a reference. The limits of the ecosystem services framework in capturing the cultural dimension are highlighted. Potential ways of strengthening the position of cultural values within this framework are discussed.

People, protected areas and ecosystem services: a qualitative and quantitative analysis of local people's perception and preferences in Côte d'Ivoire

The long-term integrity of protected areas (PAs), and hence the maintenance of related ecosystem services (ES), are dependent on the support of local people. In the present study, local people's perceptions of ecosystem services from PAs and factors that govern local preferences for PAs are assessed. Fourteen study villages were randomly selected from three different protected forest areas and one control site along the southern coast of Côte d'Ivoire. Data was collected through a mixed-method approach, including qualitative semi-structured interviews and a household survey based on hypothetical choice scenarios. Local people's perceptions of ecosystem service provision was decrypted through qualitative content analysis, while the relation between people's preferences and potential factors that affect preferences were analyzed through multinomial models. This study shows that rural villagers do perceive a number of different ecosystem services as benefits from PAs in Côte d'Ivoire. The results based on quantitative data also suggest that local preferences for PAs and related ecosystem services are driven by PAs' management rules, age, and people's dependence on natural resources.

Operationalizing ecosystem services for the mitigation of soil threats: A proposed framework

Despite numerous research efforts over the last decades, integrating the concept of ecosystem servicesinto land management decision-making continues to pose considerable challenges. Researchers havedeveloped many different frameworks to operationalize the concept, but these are often specific to acertain issue and each has their own definitions and understandings of particular terms. Based on acomprehensive review of the current scientific debate, the EU FP7 project RECARE proposes an adaptedframework for soil-related ecosystem services that is suited for practical application in the preventionand remediation of soil degradation across Europe. We have adapted existing frameworks by integratingcomponents from soil science while attempting to introduce a consistent terminology that is understand-able to a variety of stakeholders. RECARE aims to assess how soil threats and prevention and remediationmeasures affect ecosystem services. Changes in the natural capital’s properties influence soil processes,which support the provision of ecosystem services. The benefits produced by these ecosystem servicesare explicitly or implicitly valued by individuals and society. This can influence decision- and policymak-ing at different scales, potentially leading to a societal response, such as improved land management.The proposed ecosystem services framework will be applied by the RECARE project in a transdisciplinaryprocess. It will assist in singling out the most beneficial land management measures and in identifyingtrade-offs and win–win situations resulting from and impacted by European policies. The framework thusreflects the specific contributions soils make to ecosystem services and helps reveal changes in ecosystemservices caused by soil management and policies impacting on soil. At the same time, the framework issimple and robust enough for practical application in assessing soil threats and their management withstakeholders at various levels.

Water, agriculture and ecosystem services in climate change vulnerable agricultural regions of Spain and Jordan

Irrigated agricultural landscapes generate a valuable set of ecosystem services, which are threatened by water scarcity in many aridand semi‐arid regions of the world. In the Mediterranean region, climate change is expected to decrease water availability through reduced precipitation and more frequent drought spells. At the same time, climate change, demographic and economic development and an agricultural sector highly dependent on irrigation, will raise water demand, increasing experienced water scarcity and affecting the provision of ecosystem services from water resources and agro-ecosystems. In this context, policy makers face the challenge of balancing the provision of different ecosystem services, including agricultural income and production and also water ecosystem protection.

Changes in biodiversity and trade-offs among ecosystem services, stakeholders, and components of well-being: the contribution of the International Long-Term Ecological Research network (ILTER) to Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS)

The International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network comprises > 600 scientific groups conducting site-based research within 40 countries. Its mission includes improving the understanding of global ecosystems and informs solutions to current and future environmental problems at the global scales. The ILTER network covers a wide range of social-ecological conditions and is aligned with the Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS) goals and approach. Our aim is to examine and develop the conceptual basis for proposed collaboration between ILTER and PECS. We describe how a coordinated effort of several contrasting LTER site-based research groups contributes to the understanding of how policies and technologies drive either toward or away from the sustainable delivery of ecosystem services. This effort is based on three tenets: transdisciplinary research; cross-scale interactions and subsequent dynamics; and an ecological stewardship orientation. The overarching goal is to design management practices taking into account trade-offs between using and conserving ecosystems toward more sustainable solutions. To that end, we propose a conceptual approach linking ecosystem integrity, ecosystem services, and stakeholder well-being, and as a way to analyze trade-offs among ecosystem services inherent in diverse management options. We also outline our methodological approach that includes: (i) monitoring and synthesis activities following spatial and temporal trends and changes on each site and by documenting cross-scale interactions; (ii) developing analytical tools for integration; (iii) promoting trans-site comparison; and (iv) developing conceptual tools to design adequate policies and management interventions to deal with trade-offs. Finally, we highlight the heterogeneity in the social-ecological setting encountered in a subset of 15 ILTER sites. These study cases are diverse enough to provide a broad cross-section of contrasting ecosystems with different policy and management drivers of ecosystem conversion; distinct trends of biodiversity change; different stakeholders’ preferences for ecosystem services; and diverse components of well-being issues.

Solution scanning as a key policy tool: identifying management interventions to help maintain and enhance regulating ecosystem services

The major task of policy makers and practitioners when confronted with a resource management problem is to decide on the potential solution(s) to adopt from a range of available options. However, this process is unlikely to be successful and cost effective without access to an independently verified and comprehensive available list of options. There is currently burgeoning interest in ecosystem services and quantitative assessments of their importance and value. Recognition of the value of ecosystem services to human well-being represents an increasingly important argument for protecting and restoring the natural environment, alongside the moral and ethical justifications for conservation. As well as understanding the benefits of ecosystem services, it is also important to synthesize the practical interventions that are capable of maintaining and/or enhancing these services. Apart from pest regulation, pollination, and global climate regulation, this type of exercise has attracted relatively little attention. Through a systematic consultation exercise, we identify a candidate list of 296 possible interventions across the main regulating services of air quality regulation, climate regulation, water flow regulation, erosion regulation, water purification and waste treatment, disease regulation, pest regulation, pollination and natural hazard regulation. The range of interventions differs greatly between habitats and services depending upon the ease of manipulation and the level of research intensity. Some interventions have the potential to deliver benefits across a range of regulating services, especially those that reduce soil loss and maintain forest cover. Synthesis and applications: Solution scanning is important for questioning existing knowledge and identifying the range of options available to researchers and practitioners, as well as serving as the necessary basis for assessing cost effectiveness and guiding implementation strategies. We recommend that it become a routine part of decision making in all environmental policy areas.