Criminal justice : an upper-level social studies elective /

WI docs. no.: Ed.3/2:0081

Two drawings of a house: Sheet no. 2, plan upper level, 5/2/52 revised 6/28/52; sheet no. 5, section B-B & section F-; F, 5/2/52 revised 6/28/52

Lance Burghardt bracketed his exposures and provided 3 different shots of these items (2 tifs, 1 jpg). Each shares same housescan number, differentiated by suffix 1of3, 2of3, or 3of3....

Summertime moisture transport over Southeastern South America and extratropical cyclones behavior during inter-El Nio events

The impact of the inter-El Nio (EN) variability on the moisture availability over Southeastern South America (SESA) is investigated. Also, an automatic tracking scheme was used to analyze the extratropical cyclones properties (system density - SD and central pressure - CP) in this region. During the austral summer period from 1977-2000, the differences for the upper-level wave train anomaly composites seem to determine the rainfall composite differences. In fact, the positive rainfall anomalies over most of the SESA domain during the strong EN events are explained by an upper-level cyclonic center over the tropics and an anticyclonic center over the eastern subtropical area. This pattern seems to contribute to upward vertical motion at 500 hPa and reinforcement of the meridional moisture transport from the equatorial Atlantic Ocean and western Amazon basin to the SESA region. These features may contribute to the positive SD and negative CP anomalies explaining part of the positive rainfall anomalies found there. On the other hand, negative rainfall anomalies are located in the northern part of SESA for the weak EN years when compared to those for the strong events. Also, positive anomalies are found in the southern part, albeit less intense. It was associated with the weakening of the meridional moisture transport from the tropics to the SESA that seems have to contributed with smaller SD and CP anomalies over the most part of subtropics, when compared to the strong EN years.

Numerical simulation of baroclinic waves with a parameterized boundary layer

A dry three-dimensional baroclinic life cycle model is used to investigate the role of turbulent fluxes of heat and momentum within the boundary layer on mid-latitude cyclones. Simulations are performed of life cycles for two basic states, both with and without turbulent fluxes. The different basic states produce cyclones with contrasting frontal and mesoscale-flow structures. The analysis focuses on the generation of potential-vorticity (PV) in the boundary layer and its subsequent transport into the free troposphere. The dynamic mechanism through which friction mitigates a barotropic vortex is that of Ekman pumping. This has often been assumed to be also the dominant mechanism for baroclinic developments. The PV framework highlights an additional, baroclinic mechanism. Positive PV is generated baroclinically due to friction to the north-east of a surface low and is transported out of the boundary layer by a cyclonic conveyor belt flow. The result is an anomaly of increased static stability in the lower troposphere which restricts the growth of the baroclinic wave. The reduced coupling between lower and upper levels can be sufficient to change the character of the upper-level evolution of the mature wave. The basic features of the baroclinic damping mechanism are robust for different frontal structures, with and without turbulent heat fluxes, and for the range of surface roughness found over the oceans.

Dynamik diabatischer Rossby-Wellen

Diabatische Rossby-Wellen (DRWs) sind zyklonale Wirbel in der unteren Troposphäre, welche sich durch einen thermodynamisch-dynamischen Mechanismus kontinuierlich regenerieren und dabei schnell propagieren können. Vorangehende Untersuchungen schreiben derartigen zyklonalen Wirbeln das Potential zu, unter Wechselwirkung mit einer Anomalie an der Tropopause eine rapide Zyklonenintensivierung und folglich extreme Wetterereignisse hervorrufen zu können. DRWs wurden bisher meist in idealisierten Studien untersucht, woraus sich noch einige offene Fragen zu diesem Phänomen, besonders in realen Modelldaten, ergeben.rnrnIm Mittelpunkt dieser Arbeit steht die Fallstudie einer DRW, die im Dezember 2005 über dem Nordatlantik auftrat. Der Lebenszyklus des Systems ist über mehrere Tage und durch verschiedene Phasen verfolgbar und resultiert in einer explosiven Druckvertiefung. Zur Untersuchung der Fallstudie wurde mit operationellen Daten eines Globalmodelles sowie mit den Resultaten eines feinskaligeren Regionalmodelles gearbeitet, auf welche unterschiedliche Analysewerkzeuge angewendet wurden. rnrnDie eingehende Untersuchung der Propagationsphase der DRW bekräftigte das Vorhandensein von genügend Feuchte und Baroklinität als essentiell für den Propagationsmechanismus und die Intensität der DRW. Während der Propagationsphase arbeitet der selbsterhaltende DRW-Mechanismus unabhängig von einer von den Wellen an der Tropopause ausgehenden Anregung. Sensitivitätsstudien mit dem Regionalmodell, in denen die Umgebungsbedingungen der DRW lokal modifiziert wurden, ergaben, dass die Propagation einen relativ robusten Ablauf darstellt. Dementsprechend war in den vier untersuchten operationellen Vorhersagen die Propagationsphase gut wiedergegeben, während die rapide Intensivierung, wie sie gemäß den Analysen aufgetreten ist, von zwei der Vorhersagen verfehlt wurde.rnrnBei der Untersuchung der Intensivierungsphase stellten sich die Position und die zeitliche Abstimmung der Bewegung der Anomalie an der Tropopause relativ zur DRW in der unteren Troposphäre sowie die Stärke der Systeme als entscheidende Einflussfaktoren heraus. In den Entwicklungen der Sensitivitätssimulationen deutete sich an, dass ein unabhängig von der DRW an geeigneter Position entstandener zyklonaler Wirbel konstruktiver zu einer starken Zyklonenintensivierung beitragen kann als die DRW.rnrnIm zweiten Teil der Arbeit wurde ein Datensatz über die Nordhemisphäre für die Jahre 2004-2008 hinsichtlich des geographischen Vorkommens und der Intensivierung von DRWs untersucht. DRWs ereigneten sich in diesem Zeitraum über dem Atlantik (255 DRWs) halb so oft wie über dem Pazifik (515 DRWs). Ihre Entstehungsgebiete befanden sich über den Ostteilen der Kontinente und den Westhälften der Ozeane. Die Zugbahnen folgten größtenteils der baroklinen Zone der mittleren Breiten. Von den erfassten DRWs intensivierten sich im Atlanik 16% zu explosiven Tiefdruckgebieten, über dem Pazifik liegt der Anteil mit 11% etwas niedriger. Damit tragen DRWs zu etwa 20% der sich explosiv intensivierenden außertropischen Zyklonen bei.

Perceived learning environments and metacognitive strategy knowledge at the upper secondary school level

There is evidence that students benefit from teachers’ explicit fostering of metacognitive strategy knowledge (MSK). However, there is insufficient understanding about the effect of implicit promotion of MSK in regular school instruction. This study investigates the relationship between perceived characteristics of learning environments (social climate, support, autonomy, self-reflection) and students’ MSK. A representative cohort of students (Nt1 = 1,272/Nt2 = 1,126) in Grades 10 and 11 at schools at the upper secondary education level (ISCED Level 3A) in Switzerland participated in this two-wave longitudinal study. Multilevel analysis showed effects on both the individual and the class level. Students who experienced higher social integration showed a higher extent of MSK at the beginning of the school year than students who experienced less social integration. Perceived autonomy was also positively related to students’ MSK on the individual level. In contrast, the results showed a negative relationship between perceived self-reflection and students’ MSK. On the class level, there was a negative relationship between self-reflection and students’ MSK. Teachers’ support did not correlate with students’ MSK on either the individual or the class level. Implications of these results for education and further studies are discussed. (DIPF/Orig.)

3D CFD Simulation of Vortex-induced Vibration of Cylinder

The 3D flow around a circular cylinder free to oscillate transversely to the free stream was simulated using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and the Spalart-Allmaras Detached Eddy Simulation (DES) turbulence model for a Reynolds number Re = 10(4). Simulations were carried out for a small mass-damping parameter m*zeta = 0.00858, where m* = 3.3 and zeta = 0.0026. We found good agreement between the numerical results and experimental data. The simulations predicted the high observed amplitudes of the upper branch of vortex-induced vibrations for low mass-damping parameters.

Classifying dynamical forcing mechanisms using a climatology of extratropical cyclones

A climatology of almost 700 extratropical cyclones is compiled by applying an automated feature tracking algorithm to a database of objectively identified cyclonic features. Cyclones are classified according to the relative contributions to the midlevel vertical motion of the forcing from upper and lower levels averaged over the cyclone intensification period (average U/L ratio) and also by the horizontal separation between their upper-level trough and low-level cyclone (tilt). The frequency distribution of the average U/L ratio of the cyclones contains two significant peaks and a long tail at high U/L ratio. Although discrete categories of cyclones have not been identified, the cyclones comprising the peaks and tail have characteristics that have been shown to be consistent with the type A, B, and C cyclones of the threefold classification scheme. Using the thresholds in average U/L ratio determined from the frequency distribution, type A, B, and C cyclones account for 30\%, 38\%, and 32\% of the total number of cyclones respectively. Cyclones with small average U/L ratio are more likely to be developing cyclones (attain a relative vorticity $\ge 1.2 \times 10^{-4} \mbox{s}^{-1}$) whereas cyclones with large average U/L ratio are more likely to be nondeveloping cyclones (60\% of type A cyclones develop whereas 31\% of type C cyclones develop). Type A cyclogenesis dominates in the development region East of the Rockies and over the gulf stream, type B cyclogenesis dominates in the region off the East coast of the USA, and type C cyclogenesis is more common over the oceans in regions of weaker low-level baroclinicity.

The role of baroclinic waves in the initiation of tropical cyclones across the southern Indian Ocean

Cases where tropical storms are initiated simultaneously along one latitude are investigated. It is argued that such structure arises as part of a baroclinic wave. A case from February 2008 is examined using European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses; the birth of three tropical cyclones in the low-level cyclonic regions to the east of upper-level troughs suggests that the wave was instrumental for initiation. Archived satellite imagery and storm warnings reveal that baroclinic waves over the southern Indian Ocean accompany tropical cyclogenesis twice a season on average, mainly in late summer, when breaking Rossby waves on the subtropical westerly jet are closest to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on transatlantic flight routes and clear-air turbulence

The variation of wind-optimal transatlantic flight routes and their turbulence potential is investigated to understand how upper-level winds and large-scale flow patterns can affect the efficiency and safety of long-haul flights. In this study, the wind-optimal routes (WORs) that minimize the total flight time by considering wind variations are modeled for flights between John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) in New York, New York, and Heathrow Airport (LHR) in London, United Kingdom, during two distinct winter periods of abnormally high and low phases of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection patterns. Eastbound WORs approximate the JFK–LHR great circle (GC) route following northerly shifted jets in the +NAO period. Those WORs deviate southward following southerly shifted jets during the −NAO period, because eastbound WORs fly closely to the prevailing westerly jets to maximize tailwinds. Westbound WORs, however, spread meridionally to avoid the jets near the GC in the +NAO period to minimize headwinds. In the −NAO period, westbound WORs are north of the GC because of the southerly shifted jets. Consequently, eastbound WORs are faster but have higher probabilities of encountering clear-air turbulence than westbound ones, because eastbound WORs are close to the jet streams, especially near the cyclonic shear side of the jets in the northern (southern) part of the GC in the +NAO (−NAO) period. This study suggests how predicted teleconnection weather patterns can be used for long-haul strategic flight planning, ultimately contributing to minimizing aviation’s impact on the environment

An event of stratospheric air intrusion and its associated secondary surface cyclogenesis over the South Atlantic Ocean

This work presents an analysis of a lowermost stratospheric air intrusion event over the coast of Brazil, which may have been responsible for a secondary surface cyclogenesis over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. The surface cyclone initiated at 0600 UTC 17 April 1999 in a cold air mass in the rear of a cold front after a primary cyclone developed over the same region. The analysis of the secondary cyclone revealed the presence of lowermost stratospheric air intrusion characterized by anomalous potential vorticity (PV), dry air, and high concentration of ozone in atmospheric column. The system developed on the eastern side of an upper level core of PV anomaly, which induced a cyclonic wind circulation at lower levels and favored the onset of the secondary cyclone. In midlevels (500 hPa), the cutoff low development contributed to reduce the propagation speed of the wave pattern. This feature seemed to (1) allow the low-level cold/dry air to heat/moisten associated with sensible and latent fluxes transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere, which intensified a baroclinic zone parallel to the coast, and (2) contribute to the long duration of the system. The present analysis indicates that this secondary cyclone development could be the result of the coupling between the PV anomaly in the upper levels and low-level air-sea interaction.

Potential vorticity and moisture in extratropical cyclones : climatology and sensitivity experiments

The development of extratropical cyclones can be seen as an interplay of three positive potential vorticity (PV) anomalies: an upper-level stratospheric intrusion, low-tropospheric diabatically produced PV, and a warm anomaly at the surface acting as a surrogate PV anomaly. In the mature stage they become vertically aligned and form a “PV tower” associated with strong cyclonic circulation. This paradigm of extratropical cyclone development provides the basis of this thesis, which will use a climatological dataset and numerical model experiments to investigate the amplitude of the three anomalies and the processes leading in particular to the formation of the diabatically produced low-tropospheric PV anomaly.rnrnThe first part of this study, based on the interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) dataset, quantifies the amplitude of the three PV anomalies in mature extratropical cyclones in different regions in the Northern Hemisphere on a climatological basis. A tracking algorithm is applied to sea level pressure (SLP) fields to identify cyclone tracks. Surface potential temperature anomalies ∆θ and vertical profiles of PV anomalies ∆PV are calculated at the time of the cyclones’ minimum SLP and during the intensification phase 24 hours before in a vertical cylinder with a radius of 200 km around the surface cyclone center. To compare the characteristics of the cyclones, they are grouped according to their location (8 regions) and intensity, where the central SLP is used as a measure of intensity. Composites of ∆PV profiles and ∆θ are calculated for each region and intensity class at the time of minimum SLP and during the cyclone intensification phase.rnrnDuring the cyclones’ development stage the amplitudes of all three anomalies increase on average. In the mature stage all three anomalies are typically larger for intense than for weak winter cyclones [e.g., 0.6 versus 0.2 potential vorticity units (PVU) at lower levels, and 1.5 versus 0.5 PVU at upper levels].rnThe regional variability of the cyclones’ vertical structure and the profile evolution is prominent (cyclones in some regions are more sensitive to the amplitude of a particular anomaly than in other regions). Values of ∆θ and low-level ∆PV are on average larger in the western parts of the oceans than in the eastern parts. In addition, a large seasonal variability can be identified, with fewer and weaker cyclones especially in the summer, associated with higher low-tropospheric PV values, but also with a higher tropopause and much weaker surface potential temperature anomalies (compared to winter cyclones).rnrnIn the second part, we were interested in the diabatic low-level part of PV towers. Evaporative sources were identified of moisture that was involved in PV production through condensation. Lagrangian backward trajectories were calculated from the region with high PV values at low-levels in the cyclones. PV production regions were identified along these trajectories and from these regions a new set of backward trajectories was calculated and moisture uptakes were traced along them. The main contribution from surface evaporation to the specific humidity of the trajectories is collected 12-72 hours prior to therntime of PV production. The uptake region for weaker cyclones with less PV in the centre is typically more localized with reduced uptake values compared to intense cyclones. However, in a qualitative sense uptakes and other variables along single trajectories do not vary much between cyclones of different intensity in different regions.rnrnA sensitivity study with the COSMO model comprises the last part of this work. The study aims at investigating the influence of synthetic moisture modification in the cyclone environment in different stages of its development. Moisture was eliminated in three regions, which were identified as important moisture source regions for PV production. Moisture suppression affected the cyclone the most in its early phase. It led to cyclolysis shortly after its genesis. Nevertheles, a new cyclone formed on the other side of a dry box and developed relatively quickly. Also in other experiments, moisture elimination led to strong intensity reduction of the surface cyclone, limited upper-level development, and delayed or missing interaction between the two.rnrnIn summary, this thesis provides novel insight into the structure of different intensity categories of extratropical cyclones from a PV perspective, which corroborates the findings from a series of previous case studies. It reveals that all three PV anomalies are typically enhanced for more intense cyclones, with important regional differences concerning the relative amplitude of the three anomalies. The moisture source analysis is the first of this kind to study the evaporation-condensation cycle related to the intensification of extratropical cyclones. Interestingly, most of the evaporation occurs during the 3 days prior to the time of maximum cyclone intensity and typically extends over fairly large areas along the track of the cyclone. The numerical model case study complements this analysis by analyzing the impact of regionally confined moisture sources for the evolution of the cyclone.

A Global Climatology of Baroclinically Influenced Tropical Cyclogenesis*

Tropical cyclogenesis is generally considered to occur in regions devoid of baroclinic structures; however, an appreciable number of tropical cyclones (TCs) form in baroclinic environments each year. A global climatology of these baroclinically influenced TC developments is presented in this study. An objective classification strategy is developed that focuses on the characteristics of the environmental state rather than on properties of the vortex, thus allowing for a pointwise “development pathway” classification of reanalysis data. The resulting climatology shows that variability within basins arises primarily as a result of local surface thermal contrasts and the positions of time-mean features on the subtropical tropopause. The pathway analyses are sampled to generate a global climatology of 1948–2010 TC developments classified by baroclinic influence: nonbaroclinic (70%), low-level baroclinic (9%), trough induced (5%), weak tropical transition (11%), and strong tropical transition (5%). All basins other than the North Atlantic are dominated by nonbaroclinic events; however, there is extensive interbasin variability in secondary development pathways. Within each basin, subregions and time periods are identified in which the relative importance of the development pathways also differs. The efficiency of tropical cyclogenesis is found to be highly dependent on development pathway. The peak efficiency defined in the classification subspace straddles the nonbaroclinic/trough-induced boundary, suggesting that the optimal environment for TC development includes a baroclinic contribution from an upper-level disturbance. By assessing the global distribution of baroclinically influenced TC formations, this study identifies regions and pathways whose further study could yield improvements in our understanding of this important subset of TC developments.

Outdoor room, C House, Coorparoo, Brisbane

As seen from upper level of house.